Three weekends ago, TNA was up 60% from it’s buy, and was rated a HOLD Two weekends ago, TNA had fallen but was still up 43% from it’s buy, and was rated a possible sell. Last weekend, TNA had fallen a lot, and was an official SELL – only 7.7% up from the buy. Up 60% to 43% to 7%. Ouch. This weekend, TNA has moved up a bit, and is a possible but unlikely buy this week. Unlikely or not, if TNA rises above $56.62 this coming week – it will be considered a BUY. If it falls below $56.62, it’s not a BUY.
TZA was a confirmed BUY last week, dropped a ton this past week (from last week’s close), and is a possible but unlikely sell this week. The TZA buy price was $5.92, and closed this week at $6.13 – up 3.5% from the buy (last week’s open). Unlikely or not, if TZA falls below $6.13 this coming week – it will be considered a SELL. If it rises above $6.13, it’s not a SELL.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are ok to own for this week: UUP(US Dollar) GLD (gold) UGL (2x Gold) SRS (-2x RE) DRV (-3x RE) SCO (-2x Oil) DTO (-3x oil) ERY (-3x energy) SKF (-2x Financials) FAZ (-3x Financials) EPV (-2x Europe) SPXU (-3x $SPX) DXD (-2x DOW30)
These are to be avoided this week: USO(oil) UCO(2x Oil) GS QID (-2x QQQQ) DZZ (-2x Gold)
These are not likely to rise this week, but they are buys if they do: IWM (1x $RUT) UWM (2x $RUT) TNA (3x $RUT) IYR(1x RE) URE(2x RE) DRN(3x RE) ERX(3x energy) AAPL AMZN DRI GOOG DIA SPY QQQQ QLD (2x QQQQ) EWG(Germany) EWQ(France) EWU(England) EWX(emerging mkts)
These are not likely to fall this week, but are sells if they do: RWM (-1x $RUT) TWM (-2x $RUT) TZA (-3x $RUT) SLV(silver)
The weekly view was very Bearish last week, and only a bit less Bearish this week.
I see the larger red candle from last week, and this week's hollow white (green on your chart) bar, with the long topping tail. But, you have another red candle past it, that I don't have?
Where is it from, or what is that last red candle?
Well folks, if the possible bloody downturn does happen, it's thought that the carnage will weigh on the metels, but “probably” for only a very brief time. this would make a great entry point to catch a perhaps historic rally in silver (and gold)
If I do see a huge spike down in stocks with vix way up next week (?wednesday) I'll take the profits on the shorts and then put some of it in silver and gold.
After last weeks developments: The odds of gold weekly containment holding the $SPX (1050's) is now 13%, teal weekly containment is in the 980's/990's http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/46114…
Ben, I am a lousy market technician as well but I am pretty good at connecting the dots from everyone else! We had a VIX (equity buy) signal last week which is pretty accurate but can take a week or more to play out. The $NYMO is looking just like it did on February 5th before we fell to a low on Feb 8th and then bounced to new highs. So my guess is that this Wednesday, we get back down to the 105 SPY area. I completely agree that we have the “big wave” down to go, but I don't think it will happen until at least the end of June. From there, I think we tank even lower than the levels you mention. I will repost tonight after Red makes a new post.
I really only know a smattering of EW but the big down into wed (if it happens) would be some sort of 3 of 3 which means the bottom's not in yet. That's why I saved it for friday.
But I'm not a competant market technitian (nor speller!! LOL) so I'm not going to mislead people. I'll defer to the experts
Of course if I can figure it out, it won't happen. But I think I'm on to something. Also, watch out, gold and silver may skyrocket. silver may rally to 27-37. http://www.safehaven.com/article/16805/gold-tec…
The Weekly view from Americanbulls
Three weekends ago, TNA was up 60% from it’s buy, and was rated a HOLD
Two weekends ago, TNA had fallen but was still up 43% from it’s buy, and was rated a possible sell.
Last weekend, TNA had fallen a lot, and was an official SELL – only 7.7% up from the buy. Up 60% to 43% to 7%. Ouch.
This weekend, TNA has moved up a bit, and is a possible but unlikely buy this week.
Unlikely or not, if TNA rises above $56.62 this coming week – it will be considered a BUY. If it falls below $56.62, it’s not a BUY.
TZA was a confirmed BUY last week, dropped a ton this past week (from last week’s close), and is a possible but unlikely sell this week.
The TZA buy price was $5.92, and closed this week at $6.13 – up 3.5% from the buy (last week’s open).
Unlikely or not, if TZA falls below $6.13 this coming week – it will be considered a SELL. If it rises above $6.13, it’s not a SELL.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are ok to own for this week:
UUP(US Dollar)
GLD (gold)
UGL (2x Gold)
SRS (-2x RE)
DRV (-3x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil)
DTO (-3x oil)
ERY (-3x energy)
SKF (-2x Financials)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
EPV (-2x Europe)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
These are to be avoided this week:
USO(oil)
UCO(2x Oil)
GS
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DZZ (-2x Gold)
These are not likely to rise this week, but they are buys if they do:
IWM (1x $RUT)
UWM (2x $RUT)
TNA (3x $RUT)
IYR(1x RE)
URE(2x RE)
DRN(3x RE)
ERX(3x energy)
AAPL
AMZN
DRI
GOOG
DIA
SPY
QQQQ
QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
EWX(emerging mkts)
These are not likely to fall this week, but are sells if they do:
RWM (-1x $RUT)
TWM (-2x $RUT)
TZA (-3x $RUT)
SLV(silver)
The weekly view was very Bearish last week, and only a bit less Bearish this week.
In that chart, I see an extra red candle (the last one made), that isn't showing on this chart?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
I see the larger red candle from last week, and this week's hollow white (green on your chart) bar, with the long topping tail. But, you have another red candle past it, that I don't have?
Where is it from, or what is that last red candle?
Well folks, if the possible bloody downturn does happen, it's thought that the carnage will weigh on the metels, but “probably” for only a very brief time. this would make a great entry point to catch a perhaps historic rally in silver (and gold)
If I do see a huge spike down in stocks with vix way up next week (?wednesday) I'll take the profits on the shorts and then put some of it in silver and gold.
New post everyone… Weekend update is now up. Please repost any important comments on it.
Gold and teal must refer to color. i could not see the gold color, looks off white to me
How do you get 13% probability for the 1050's?? This means that there is an 87% chance that we go below the 1050's or that we stay above the 1050's.
Probably the latter
friday's closing #
1135.68 Local Min Value
-2.12% 1111.60
-4.24% 1087.53
-6.36% 1063.45
-8.48% 1039.37
-10.60% 1015.30
-12.72% 991.22
-14.84% 967.15
-16.96% 943.07
-19.08% 918.99
-21.20% 894.92
-23.32% 870.84
-25.44% 846.76
From Top
1219.8 Local Min Value
-2.12% 1193.94
-4.24% 1168.08
-6.36% 1142.22
-8.48% 1116.36
-10.60% 1090.50
-12.72% 1064.64
-14.84% 1038.78
-16.96% 1012.92
-19.08% 987.06
-21.20% 961.20
-23.32% 935.34
-25.44% 909.48
These #'s are in congruence that the low is not probable to come from gold weekly containment.
After last weeks developments:
The odds of gold weekly containment holding the $SPX (1050's) is now 13%, teal weekly containment is in the 980's/990's
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/46114…
I believe that was SPY's thursday close,
take a screenshot of the $SPX 3 min chart from Thursday afternoon, the operators left some key gaps
it will help you stay long on the way back up after we fall off the cliff
Ben, I am a lousy market technician as well but I am pretty good at connecting the dots from everyone else! We had a VIX (equity buy) signal last week which is pretty accurate but can take a week or more to play out. The $NYMO is looking just like it did on February 5th before we fell to a low on Feb 8th and then bounced to new highs. So my guess is that this Wednesday, we get back down to the 105 SPY area. I completely agree that we have the “big wave” down to go, but I don't think it will happen until at least the end of June. From there, I think we tank even lower than the levels you mention. I will repost tonight after Red makes a new post.
I really only know a smattering of EW but the big down into wed (if it happens) would be some sort of 3 of 3 which means the bottom's not in yet. That's why I saved it for friday.
But I'm not a competant market technitian (nor speller!! LOL) so I'm not going to mislead people. I'll defer to the experts
Of course if I can figure it out, it won't happen. But I think I'm on to something. Also, watch out, gold and silver may skyrocket. silver may rally to 27-37.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/16805/gold-tec…