You are absolutely right, We need to follow the players or manipulators, whatever you want to call them.
But I have been in this situation before in the 2000 crash with tech and saved myself by simple dumb luck. I awakened one morning and said to myself I have made too much money and its going to stop. Sold out and 5 days later it crashed
Point now is the probability of making big money in the markets for these players has moved from long to short. If the market moves to 11800 or 1250 on sp you make x.
If market goes to 9300 or less what do you make and what are the odds going either way?
If they decide to take the market down it places you in the difficult position of chasing it down. Like last Thursday. What if the market did not rebound. Had you not had your shorts in place you would have missed it completely.
Any how today is going to be interesting. i think its going to end up again through opex not because of the technical s but manipulation as has been pointed out above.
Red, if you believe the teal line will hold, I think it will come down before Monday. Problem is, I don't know how much it will come down by next Friday. I may actually take a huge loss on my May puts and go into June ones instead.
I'm leaning to believe that they will tag that 1180 area (+/- a few points), and hold it through Friday, so the retail people will think everything is OK again, and go shopping over the weekend again… spending more money they don't have.
Then, as every trader knows by now, option expiration weeks are almost always bullish. Many will go long over the weekend, as you also have the usual bullish Monday too.
But, I don't think that is what's going to happen next week. I'm not going to say “what”, as I might jinks it. Remember, the last 3 times I put up the cool picture, nothing happened.
Maybe the picture needs a “Black” background of lightening, instead of “Red”, before it will work? Since I took 3 swings at it, and struck out, it's time for the pinch hitter to replace it… don't you think?
Yes, I agreed…. tops are very hard to predict. Sure I'd love to have waiting until now to go short, but I'm with you on getting in at 116-ish. If I didn't get in, it would have fell without me… just my luck.
Iron sharpens iron. I'm finding that I'm getting much better at trading thanks to having people to bounce ideas off of. Still have a lot to learn, of course.
Bob,
You are absolutely right, We need to follow the players or manipulators, whatever you want to call them.
But I have been in this situation before in the 2000 crash with tech and saved myself by simple dumb luck. I awakened one morning and said to myself I have made too much money and its going to stop. Sold out and 5 days later it crashed
Point now is the probability of making big money in the markets for these players has moved from long to short. If the market moves to 11800 or 1250 on sp you make x.
If market goes to 9300 or less what do you make and what are the odds going either way?
If they decide to take the market down it places you in the difficult position of chasing it down. Like last Thursday. What if the market did not rebound. Had you not had your shorts in place you would have missed it completely.
Any how today is going to be interesting. i think its going to end up again through opex not because of the technical s but manipulation as has been pointed out above.
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1157-77.
1165.25-1174.75 range last night (9.50 points)
1157-1177 estimate for today (20 points)
1167 currently, so estimate is -10 to +10 from here (neutral)
I'm wrong on most of my calls, so let's hope I'm wrong on this one too.
Red, if you believe the teal line will hold, I think it will come down before Monday. Problem is, I don't know how much it will come down by next Friday. I may actually take a huge loss on my May puts and go into June ones instead.
Gang,
I'm leaning to believe that they will tag that 1180 area (+/- a few points), and hold it through Friday, so the retail people will think everything is OK again, and go shopping over the weekend again… spending more money they don't have.
Then, as every trader knows by now, option expiration weeks are almost always bullish. Many will go long over the weekend, as you also have the usual bullish Monday too.
But, I don't think that is what's going to happen next week. I'm not going to say “what”, as I might jinks it. Remember, the last 3 times I put up the cool picture, nothing happened.
Maybe the picture needs a “Black” background of lightening, instead of “Red”, before it will work? Since I took 3 swings at it, and struck out, it's time for the pinch hitter to replace it… don't you think?
I got it – thank you very much.
Thank you SC.
Yes, I agreed…. tops are very hard to predict. Sure I'd love to have waiting until now to go short, but I'm with you on getting in at 116-ish. If I didn't get in, it would have fell without me… just my luck.
Iron sharpens iron. I'm finding that I'm getting much better at trading thanks to having people to bounce ideas off of. Still have a lot to learn, of course.
Tops are hard to pick. So far, I'm pretty happy about going short 116-ish. It could well have dropped from there, and I'd have missed it.