I spent some time looking at Cobra's chartbook, notably his chart 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate Trading Signals, and we are at a particular crux of price movement (see MACD and stochastics) and put-call ratio that could go either way. We could have the crash scenario (see Sundancer's posts) which I think makes a lot of sense and am following, but there is a potential trap the way I see it.
We could also buy our way up to the 1180 level, jump it with a gap opening, and start a bull rally (not that it may necessarily last long). It is clear that the market has much breadth, and the pattern of new highs indicates that we should have further to go.
Of course, all these buyers could also represent a new crop of sellers, with their net worth (which is paper anyway) disappearing into thin air and relieving the threat of inflation. So that bolsters the bear market case. Cobra has also pointed out some chart formations that support the bear case (Bearish Engulfing, Rising Wedge, Ascending Broadening Wedge).
I am going to buy some calls today as a hedge. It should only cost a few hundred bucks and give much peace of mind. I will also add to my short position as we approach 1180.
hey Red! thanks for that explanation…makes total sense. and here we are, another damn up day for the markets. i wouldn't surprised if we surpass the old highs. what a freakin' scam. one of these times i'll get it right and join them on the ride up…hell, it might not be too late now as they'll probably go to 1250 on the s*p. and I agree, all of them need to be lined up and shoot! i love denninger's probability test on the odds that ALL the banks didn't have a losing streak in the last gazillion days. “Now if Goldman's record was predicated on the outcome of a game of chance set of odds and had an 8.67 x 10 to 19th power probability of occurring, for four of these institutions to do so would be that to the 4th power, or something approaching 5.65 x 10 to 73rd power.” if that is not a stacked deck, i don't know what is…the trick for me is to be on their side instead of arguing with them about the POS they are! cause when I do the latter I lose a lot of money. if I just see it for what it is and play their game, I can make money. the scary part though is how they can take down the market in a flash ~ a 1000 points in 15 minutes…now that is freakin' scary! thanks again Red. Great work sir.
That article's a good read, but I think Red is right concerning the dog and pony aspects of the whole financial spectacle.
Go to opensecrets.org and see who financed Obama's campaign. Also, the Fed and Treasury are full of GS people, notably Bernanke and Geithner. It's all kabuki theater.
This is going to piss you off even more. It's ALL planned and timed around when the markets are at a peak. It's a “dog and pony” show, where the President waits until the market peaks, and then comes out and threatens the banks, like he did back in the January sell off.
They timed the vote for the passing (or, in this case… NOT passing) the bill to audit the Fed, and clap down on the HFT systems that Goldman (and other crooks) use to trade with, exactly when the market was peaked again, and read to crash anyway.
That should tell you that the government, and the banks are working together in a big stage show, where the play golf together privately, and then make empty threats using powerful words, in public while the camera's are rolling.
That's what the blog writer doesn't understand, when he wrote that article. Don't get me wrong, it's a good post… but when you dig deeper, you see that every detail was planned and released at a certain point in time.
Last month the market hit huge overhead resistance on the weekly chart, when it hit the 200 DMA. So, that's when you decide to bring Goldman up on charges. The market was going to sell off anyway, as the technicals would tell you.
But, they can use the sell off to gain public support, by blaming it on the banks, and hauling them into congress, for an investigation. They knew Goldman was dirty a year ago. Why didn't they arrest them then?
Because they need the market to rally, and it wasn't election time. Nothing will be done to Goldman, but some chump change fine, just like the will never pass a bill to audit the Federal Reserve.
In fact, I believe the Fed will be bankrupt by the end of this year… which is other reason you don't really want to see their books. It's better to delay it until the elections are over, and then throw it all out there together.
I see a massive sell off coming, as “everything” is going too hit the fan at the same time. It's all planned of course, as while some companies will go bankrupt, others will be bought up at rock bottom bargain prices… which is basically like stealing them for next to nothing.
I agree that Goldman should be lined up an shot, but let's line up half of Congress and the Senate too… as well as Bernanke, Geithner and Obama. Get them all in one be swoop!
red, this guys is spot on! the trick is to be on the right side, and not argue with why the market should go a certain direction…for now it is up. what reason do 'they' have to take it down??? I think the GS should be lined up and shot right in the head…and I'd gladly participate…i know, I'm venting, but this just pisses me off! http://ampedstatus.com/high-frequency-terrorism…
I keep reading about people talking about at what pt the market will do what. You should not look at price in such absolute terms. It would yield a far more accurate picture if you look at the price RELATIVE to the 'teal' line in the hourly. Where the price is, relative to its 'teal' line. What direction the teal line is heading. How the price reacts at the 'teal' line. Once you figure out the relationship between the price and teal line, they can tell you all you need to know to trade profitably.
The 60 minute charts look about ready to roll over, but the daily chart is still rolling back up. It should dip back down once, before moving up more, but in a market that's 100% controlled… the game can change at any time.
Possible alternative scenario?
I spent some time looking at Cobra's chartbook, notably his chart 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate Trading Signals, and we are at a particular crux of price movement (see MACD and stochastics) and put-call ratio that could go either way. We could have the crash scenario (see Sundancer's posts) which I think makes a lot of sense and am following, but there is a potential trap the way I see it.
We could also buy our way up to the 1180 level, jump it with a gap opening, and start a bull rally (not that it may necessarily last long). It is clear that the market has much breadth, and the pattern of new highs indicates that we should have further to go.
Of course, all these buyers could also represent a new crop of sellers, with their net worth (which is paper anyway) disappearing into thin air and relieving the threat of inflation. So that bolsters the bear market case. Cobra has also pointed out some chart formations that support the bear case (Bearish Engulfing, Rising Wedge, Ascending Broadening Wedge).
I am going to buy some calls today as a hedge. It should only cost a few hundred bucks and give much peace of mind. I will also add to my short position as we approach 1180.
hey Red! thanks for that explanation…makes total sense. and here we are, another damn up day for the markets. i wouldn't surprised if we surpass the old highs. what a freakin' scam. one of these times i'll get it right and join them on the ride up…hell, it might not be too late now as they'll probably go to 1250 on the s*p. and I agree, all of them need to be lined up and shoot! i love denninger's probability test on the odds that ALL the banks didn't have a losing streak in the last gazillion days. “Now if Goldman's record was predicated on the outcome of a game of chance set of odds and had an 8.67 x 10 to 19th power probability of occurring, for four of these institutions to do so would be that to the 4th power, or something approaching 5.65 x 10 to 73rd power.” if that is not a stacked deck, i don't know what is…the trick for me is to be on their side instead of arguing with them about the POS they are! cause when I do the latter I lose a lot of money. if I just see it for what it is and play their game, I can make money. the scary part though is how they can take down the market in a flash ~ a 1000 points in 15 minutes…now that is freakin' scary! thanks again Red. Great work sir.
That article's a good read, but I think Red is right concerning the dog and pony aspects of the whole financial spectacle.
Go to opensecrets.org and see who financed Obama's campaign. Also, the Fed and Treasury are full of GS people, notably Bernanke and Geithner. It's all kabuki theater.
Bob…
This is going to piss you off even more. It's ALL planned and timed around when the markets are at a peak. It's a “dog and pony” show, where the President waits until the market peaks, and then comes out and threatens the banks, like he did back in the January sell off.
They timed the vote for the passing (or, in this case… NOT passing) the bill to audit the Fed, and clap down on the HFT systems that Goldman (and other crooks) use to trade with, exactly when the market was peaked again, and read to crash anyway.
That should tell you that the government, and the banks are working together in a big stage show, where the play golf together privately, and then make empty threats using powerful words, in public while the camera's are rolling.
That's what the blog writer doesn't understand, when he wrote that article. Don't get me wrong, it's a good post… but when you dig deeper, you see that every detail was planned and released at a certain point in time.
Last month the market hit huge overhead resistance on the weekly chart, when it hit the 200 DMA. So, that's when you decide to bring Goldman up on charges. The market was going to sell off anyway, as the technicals would tell you.
But, they can use the sell off to gain public support, by blaming it on the banks, and hauling them into congress, for an investigation. They knew Goldman was dirty a year ago. Why didn't they arrest them then?
Because they need the market to rally, and it wasn't election time. Nothing will be done to Goldman, but some chump change fine, just like the will never pass a bill to audit the Federal Reserve.
In fact, I believe the Fed will be bankrupt by the end of this year… which is other reason you don't really want to see their books. It's better to delay it until the elections are over, and then throw it all out there together.
I see a massive sell off coming, as “everything” is going too hit the fan at the same time. It's all planned of course, as while some companies will go bankrupt, others will be bought up at rock bottom bargain prices… which is basically like stealing them for next to nothing.
I agree that Goldman should be lined up an shot, but let's line up half of Congress and the Senate too… as well as Bernanke, Geithner and Obama. Get them all in one be swoop!
red, this guys is spot on! the trick is to be on the right side, and not argue with why the market should go a certain direction…for now it is up. what reason do 'they' have to take it down??? I think the GS should be lined up and shot right in the head…and I'd gladly participate…i know, I'm venting, but this just pisses me off!
http://ampedstatus.com/high-frequency-terrorism…
The only thing I look at in “absolute terms”, is that I'm absolutely great at picking the wrong price point to enter a position.
I keep reading about people talking about at what pt the market will do what. You should not look at price in such absolute terms. It would yield a far more accurate picture if you look at the price RELATIVE to the 'teal' line in the hourly. Where the price is, relative to its 'teal' line. What direction the teal line is heading. How the price reacts at the 'teal' line. Once you figure out the relationship between the price and teal line, they can tell you all you need to know to trade profitably.
There is pure gold in the hourly data.
Me too but could go either way Monica….so ……………….GLTU!! 🙂
The 60 minute charts look about ready to roll over, but the daily chart is still rolling back up. It should dip back down once, before moving up more, but in a market that's 100% controlled… the game can change at any time.
I will do that my friend. K and I email each from time to time, to stay informed. If I find something, I'll gladly share it…