As I write this, USO (oil) is -0.45% while $SPX is +0.05%. The $USD seems to have stopped (or at least suspended) falling, and is rising. I think this will cause at least a pause in the ramp-up, if not a reversal.
Sorry I am late, but cleaning toilet and flipping burger are demanding hard work.
Situation update:
1. Background : Classic dilemma. Severe adverse market conditions with the runaway train moving again. It is the first week of a new quarter, apparently, the pros are scrambling back into the market. We used to laugh at this kind of chicken shit behavior, ie loading up speculative craps at the beginning of the quarter and selling all the dogs toward the end of the quarter for window dressing. But apparently arguing with (or laughing at) fools does not pay. Never underestimate the power of crowd behavior. Mom is right when she said not to laugh at retards…..
2. Momentum has turned to slightly positive. It is pointing at prolonged topping process. The danger here is missing the blow off rally into the summer. Toward the end of every bubble, it is just relentless, and mindless hysterical mad dash to the cliff. Trendlines, cycles, oscillators, everything get steamrolled over, together with the accounts of all the shorts. Bears looking for a reprieve to get out while bulls looking for a chance to load up. Both go home empty handed.
3. How do you position your portfolio under such madness? Use options.
For example: $100,000 account. SPY May 119 puts @2.55. It will cost 2.27% to go 100% short, and 6.375% to go 300% short. This is a straight put. You can reduce the cost using a spread. What this achieves is that you can go short while limiting your risk to a predetermined level.
If anyone is interested, I will post the details of the strategy. Otherwise I need to rest up for my nightshifts…..
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1173 – 1185. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.
1174.50 -1183.75 actual yesterday (9.25 points) 1177.25 low last night 1173-1185 estimate for today (12 points) 1179 currently, so estimate is -6 to +6 from here (neutral)
Carl hasn't traded yet today.
He is just now calling for /ES to drop to the 1170 area. He used the word imminent.
/ES futures peaked (so far) today at 1188, 3 points above Carl's project high for the day. 1170 would be 3 points below his projected low for the day.
Red Dragon has been calling for the market to go down every week for 6 months. Chronically WRONG
Naturally, less than one hour later, a brutal short squeeze has sent the markets to new highs on $SPX. Oil, however, has not confirmed this new high.
As I write this, USO (oil) is -0.45% while $SPX is +0.05%. The $USD seems to have stopped (or at least suspended) falling, and is rising. I think this will cause at least a pause in the ramp-up, if not a reversal.
Sorry I am late, but cleaning toilet and flipping burger are demanding hard work.
Situation update:
1. Background : Classic dilemma. Severe adverse market conditions with the runaway train moving again. It is the first week of a new quarter, apparently, the pros are scrambling back into the market. We used to laugh at this kind of chicken shit behavior, ie loading up speculative craps at the beginning of the quarter and selling all the dogs toward the end of the quarter for window dressing. But apparently arguing with (or laughing at) fools does not pay. Never underestimate the power of crowd behavior. Mom is right when she said not to laugh at retards…..
2. Momentum has turned to slightly positive. It is pointing at prolonged topping process. The danger here is missing the blow off rally into the summer. Toward the end of every bubble, it is just relentless, and mindless hysterical mad dash to the cliff. Trendlines, cycles, oscillators, everything get steamrolled over, together with the accounts of all the shorts. Bears looking for a reprieve to get out while bulls looking for a chance to load up. Both go home empty handed.
3. How do you position your portfolio under such madness? Use options.
For example: $100,000 account. SPY May 119 puts @2.55. It will cost 2.27% to go 100% short, and 6.375% to go 300% short. This is a straight put. You can reduce the cost using a spread. What this achieves is that you can go short while limiting your risk to a predetermined level.
If anyone is interested, I will post the details of the strategy. Otherwise I need to rest up for my nightshifts…..
on top of the $DJI running into purple contianment on the weekly, it's controlling TL on the daily is providing problems
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44971…
So shocking to see a down day, even a slight one.
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1173 – 1185. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.
1174.50 -1183.75 actual yesterday (9.25 points)
1177.25 low last night
1173-1185 estimate for today (12 points)
1179 currently, so estimate is -6 to +6 from here (neutral)
also see if we start making new highs
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=0…
small caps,see if it can break out over lg.caps
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:OEF&p=D&yr…