Friday was 115 trading days from the 11-16 low. The 115 number has been recurring during the past year. Off the 4-12 high last year, there was a 43 td decline followed by a 72 td rally…..43+72===115…..The rally into the 9-14 high was followed by another 43 td decline so off the 4-2 high, there was 115 td high-high and off the 6-04 low there was a 115 td low to low.
72 is also a fib .62 of 115….. So a lot of evidence that Friday could be the high…..It was also 33 weeks from the 9-14 high and rallies during this bull phase have occurred in 33 and 11 weekly increments.
This two day pop is similar to the final two day pop into 9-14 with that day seeing an exhaustive gap up with 700+new highs. Friday saw a large gap up with 800+ new highs. And then a slide during the rest of the session. On the 5 minute chart that slide exceeded anything seen during this last 5 wave up off the low on 5-1 so I am no so sure we will be seeing a final mini 5th wave type doji bar.
More divergences seen on $bpnya and %off stocks above the $nya’s 50 day average. (Lower highs to new $nya highs).
Industrial commodities were making new multi-month lows during the week indication global recession although they bounced 5% on Friday. Meanwhile, industrial commodity exporter Australia was seeing new highs in its stock indices even with its manufacturing PMI back down at deep recession levels (May 2009 levels). All showing a market totally out of whack.
You are welcome Seawind… and do have a nice weekend. It’s currently rainy here in Jacksonville but at least it’s not cold on top of that. Get ready for next week as there is money to be made.
If today’s rally is some kind of wave 3 up (and I believe it is) then it looks like we are currently in a sideways/down wave 4 right now. This leave Monday to complete the final wave 5 up, and complete this rally for the year and put in the high for this year as well.
Then I’m expecting a 2-3 week drop of about 80-100 points (based on prior sell offs) that should retest the 1536 spx low. This should be the first wave 1 down from the high. Then I expect a rally back up to maybe 1600 area for the wave 3 up. That should happen and complete on a ritual “eleven” date like May 22nd or the 29th.
The Legatus meeting is from May 23rd to the 25th so everything is lining up for a nasty wave 3 down to start somewhere around that time period. Of course past history only shows about 30-40% of the important tops occur on eleven days so it’s not a sure thing for the 22nd or the 29th.
But knowing a zone period should allow everyone to get into a nice short position even if I’m off on one of those dates and it happens on the 27th or some other day in between that zone. As for the wave 3 down I’m expecting about double the wave 1 down in points… or about 160 points roughly.
Have a good weekend everyone and get ready to short on Monday. Also, I will be doing a new post this weekend and an update for the newsletter (good things to report there too).
APPLE Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/apple-chart-update_7.html
New post… http://reddragonleo.com/2013/05/06/we-are-just-weeks-away-from-the-start-of-a-200-or-more-point-drop-in-the-spx/#disqus_thread
FACEBOOK Dark Cloud cover pattern: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/facebook-dark-cloud-cover-pattern.html
ES Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/es-bullish-patterns-and-resistance-line.html
Happy Double 5 Day!!!!
Friday was 115 trading days from the 11-16 low. The 115 number has been recurring during the past year. Off the 4-12 high last year, there was a 43 td decline followed by a 72 td rally…..43+72===115…..The rally into the 9-14 high was followed by another 43 td decline so off the 4-2 high, there was 115 td high-high and off the 6-04 low there was a 115 td low to low.
72 is also a fib .62 of 115….. So a lot of evidence that Friday could be the high…..It was also 33 weeks from the 9-14 high and rallies during this bull phase have occurred in 33 and 11 weekly increments.
This two day pop is similar to the final two day pop into 9-14 with that day seeing an exhaustive gap up with 700+new highs. Friday saw a large gap up with 800+ new highs. And then a slide during the rest of the session. On the 5 minute chart that slide exceeded anything seen during this last 5 wave up off the low on 5-1 so I am no so sure we will be seeing a final mini 5th wave type doji bar.
More divergences seen on $bpnya and %off stocks above the $nya’s 50 day average. (Lower highs to new $nya highs).
Industrial commodities were making new multi-month lows during the week indication global recession although they bounced 5% on Friday. Meanwhile, industrial commodity exporter Australia was seeing new highs in its stock indices even with its manufacturing PMI back down at deep recession levels (May 2009 levels). All showing a market totally out of whack.
LINKEDIN Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/linkedin-corporation-weekend-update.html
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/05/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
You are welcome Seawind… and do have a nice weekend. It’s currently rainy here in Jacksonville but at least it’s not cold on top of that. Get ready for next week as there is money to be made.
Thanks Mr. Red……have a great weekend one and all! Finally some nice weather here!
Very interesting day!
If today’s rally is some kind of wave 3 up (and I believe it is) then it looks like we are currently in a sideways/down wave 4 right now. This leave Monday to complete the final wave 5 up, and complete this rally for the year and put in the high for this year as well.
Then I’m expecting a 2-3 week drop of about 80-100 points (based on prior sell offs) that should retest the 1536 spx low. This should be the first wave 1 down from the high. Then I expect a rally back up to maybe 1600 area for the wave 3 up. That should happen and complete on a ritual “eleven” date like May 22nd or the 29th.
The Legatus meeting is from May 23rd to the 25th so everything is lining up for a nasty wave 3 down to start somewhere around that time period. Of course past history only shows about 30-40% of the important tops occur on eleven days so it’s not a sure thing for the 22nd or the 29th.
But knowing a zone period should allow everyone to get into a nice short position even if I’m off on one of those dates and it happens on the 27th or some other day in between that zone. As for the wave 3 down I’m expecting about double the wave 1 down in points… or about 160 points roughly.
Have a good weekend everyone and get ready to short on Monday. Also, I will be doing a new post this weekend and an update for the newsletter (good things to report there too).