I said since Sept 09 till Healthcare if passed we “will not see any significant sell off” (from Evil speculator blog post Sept) we shall see tomorrow if my thoughts are fullfilled. Selling will come this week.
That de-leverage area presents some structural problems for the bull structure as the controlling TL that has held the SPX is currently above the de-leverage tick
All long positions above SPY 107.82 will eventually become underwater, just like all the short positions below the 1127.38 gap left in January eventually became underwater.
As red has figured out, this game is designed to take your money and for most people it is no different than gambling @ a casino. You keep hearing me talk about the regulatory part of the market, due to that the market moves in two directions on all time frames which is the catalyst for parting people with their money.
I've been pretty busy at work lately, as this is the busy time of year for me. So, I haven't had a chance to stop by and visit your blog (sorry). I do try to read your site and the comments from time to time, and you're right… it seems that you have a problem with trolls, or just annoying people posting worthless content.
I think you would have less of that if you switched your comment system to discus. Of course it wouldn't keep them all out, but it would reduce the amount of idiots posting and running… with no logic or reason by the post, other then to annoy people.
I'm lucky to have a good group of people commenting here on this site. I'm just the host, and they are the party. When it comes to technical analysis, I learn from them… as you can see I don't post as much TA's or charts as I used too.
With the market being so heavily control now, it's really a waste of time to forecast the next move, as it won't happen until the big institutions are allow to sell.
I know you are aware that this market should have continued down in February, as well as several other times. But, government manipulation is the new game that must be mastered.
Forecasting their next move is the key to predicting the market. Of course there has always been some form of manipulation in the market, but never total control like now. The massive printing of free money has change the rules in the stock market forever.
POLITICS is a GAME that used to be for the BOYS in the back room NOW its on CNN , CNBC, & of course FOX everyday and each one SPINS it the way they want to get the best ratings for the day
IT takes a certain kind of person to be a politician, and they MUST learn the GAME or they wont be around very long
IT is a game of GIVE AND TAKE
but the public is being overwhelmed with TOOO MUCH politics and they dont like it
IT was the SAME 200 years ago and it will never change
It took LBJ 15 months to get medicare passed, so why should healthcare be any different
At least your commentors CONTRIBUTE to the technical status of the market and they DONT taunt that you tend to be more bearish than not. I dont know why I get some people who just seem to want to show me up, and the ones how should contribute mostly remain silent.
Technical sell signals were issued on the 10& 11th but the effects can be delayed up to 10days
Numerology plays an interesting role at peaks & lows 1170 was not exceeded 1+1+7= 9 a finishing/final number 10800 was not exceeded and also totals 9
every month of the last 10 that I researched had a low in the first week and a high in the 3rd week around the 18th & 19th
the 5th of the month =5 18th of the month = 9 final 23rd of each month = 5 5 & 23 -2+3= 5 means CHANGE
So we can see that in a STRONG trending market those values can be used at least as a guide to work with & evaluate other technical data at times of extremes
Jay I have been publishing a market EKG prior to each day which seems to be showing the ups& downs of the next day, as I have been posting it after 8:30am
Keep in mind I DONT MAKE THESE graphs
they are derived from a continuous data stream, and I convert it to a graph. The reason I post it after 8:30 is to give me a starting point. the end of the day is still difficult to pick, but ive gotten better at it.
the other 2 graphs are posted after market to show comparisons of the EKG to the SPX & Market PULSE which updates every 5 minutes during the day.
TNA was a confirmed SELL today. The candlestick today was a Long Black Candlestick (strong selling pressure).
TNA gapped up today, and then fell. The standard rules for a gap up after a SELL-IF signal is to sell when price falls to yesterday’s closing price.
AmericanBulls has this trade ending at $55.43 (their close for yesterday) I have this trade ending at $55.41 (yesterday’s close on Interactive Brokers).
TZA has a confirmed BUY today. The candlestick today was White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).
TZA gapped down today, and then rose. The standard rule for a gap down after a BUY-IF signal is to buy when price rises to yesterday’s closing price.
AmericanBulls has this trade starting at $7.11 (their close for yesterday) I have this trade starting at $7.12 (yesterday’s close on Interactive Brokers).
Very good points SC. There was one fakeout on the MACD on the way up since February, and anyone who solely used MACD to make trades would have gotten scorched.
TZA opened down 1.0%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 4.7% at the high, and closed up 3.8%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA. After four days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls issued a sell March 17th so this trade was in cash today and did not benefit from the 3.8% rise today. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a confirmed BUY signal, or an unconfirmed high probability BUY-IF signal.
Volume for TZA was the 4th highest of the last 18 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 4.7% with TZA up 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 4 of the last 6 days.
The low for TZA today was $7.04. The low two days ago was $6.93 which is the lowest TZA price ever.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 42. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value jumped 8 points today & was highest of the last 20 days, so the Ultimate Oscillator is in a definite up trend. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s long white candle remains in the congestion area but closed above the Bollinger mid-line (20 day MA). The lower Bollinger band stopped falling. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX is rising. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The large red candle for $RUT seems to mark a change in character downward. Looks like a topping process for $RUT is well underway. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle fell to the bottom of the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be falling. Looks like a topping process is well under way, which is good for TZA.
TZA had a much higher high, higher low and much higher close – good for TZA.
Yesterday, money flow for the Total Stock Market was $250 million flowing out of the market. That made sense. Today, the same site says $22,547 million (That would be $22 billion and change) flowed into the market, on a down day. If this makes sense to anyone, please speak up.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
I said since Sept 09 till Healthcare if passed we “will not see any significant sell off” (from Evil speculator blog post Sept) we shall see tomorrow if my thoughts are fullfilled.
Selling will come this week.
great post red, a number of interesting points
for those not aware of the ritual taking place today with HealthCare(HC)
todays is SUN-day 3.21
3 = 111
it is currently the 111th meeting of congress
21 = 777
3.21 = 3.2.1.reset
___________________________________________
Let's look at some de-leverage ticks & gaps left by the operators
First here is a chart showing the de-leverage tick of 107.82 est. 2/16/2010
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44500…
That de-leverage area presents some structural problems for the bull structure as the controlling TL that has held the SPX is currently above the de-leverage tick
We also have the SPX 1131.56 gap left on 3/5/2010
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44203…
All long positions above SPY 107.82 will eventually become underwater, just like all the short positions below the 1127.38 gap left in January eventually became underwater.
As red has figured out, this game is designed to take your money and for most people it is no different than gambling @ a casino. You keep hearing me talk about the regulatory part of the market, due to that the market moves in two directions on all time frames which is the catalyst for parting people with their money.
Trade with the regulators, not against them.
Think we will be able to get there shortly.
Think we will be able to get there shortly.
Jay,
I've been pretty busy at work lately, as this is the busy time of year for me. So, I haven't had a chance to stop by and visit your blog (sorry). I do try to read your site and the comments from time to time, and you're right… it seems that you have a problem with trolls, or just annoying people posting worthless content.
I think you would have less of that if you switched your comment system to discus. Of course it wouldn't keep them all out, but it would reduce the amount of idiots posting and running… with no logic or reason by the post, other then to annoy people.
I'm lucky to have a good group of people commenting here on this site. I'm just the host, and they are the party. When it comes to technical analysis, I learn from them… as you can see I don't post as much TA's or charts as I used too.
With the market being so heavily control now, it's really a waste of time to forecast the next move, as it won't happen until the big institutions are allow to sell.
I know you are aware that this market should have continued down in February, as well as several other times. But, government manipulation is the new game that must be mastered.
Forecasting their next move is the key to predicting the market. Of course there has always been some form of manipulation in the market, but never total control like now. The massive printing of free money has change the rules in the stock market forever.
I hope you are still making money my friend.
Red
POLITICS is a GAME that used to be for the BOYS in the back room
NOW its on CNN , CNBC, & of course FOX
everyday and each one SPINS it the way they want to get the best ratings for the day
IT takes a certain kind of person to be a politician, and they MUST learn the GAME or they wont be around very long
IT is a game of GIVE AND TAKE
but the public is being overwhelmed with TOOO MUCH politics and they dont like it
IT was the SAME 200 years ago and it will never change
It took LBJ 15 months to get medicare passed, so why should healthcare be any different
Best to all
Jay
At least your commentors CONTRIBUTE to the technical status of the market and they DONT taunt that you tend to be more bearish than not. I dont know why I get some people who just seem to want to show me up, and the ones how should contribute mostly remain silent.
Technical sell signals were issued on the 10& 11th but the effects can be delayed up to 10days
Numerology plays an interesting role at peaks & lows
1170 was not exceeded 1+1+7= 9 a finishing/final number
10800 was not exceeded and also totals 9
every month of the last 10 that I researched
had a low in the first week
and a high in the 3rd week around the 18th & 19th
the 5th of the month =5
18th of the month = 9 final
23rd of each month = 5
5 & 23 -2+3= 5 means CHANGE
So we can see that in a STRONG trending market
those values can be used at least as a guide to work with & evaluate other technical data at times of extremes
Jay
I have been publishing a market EKG prior to each day which seems to be showing the ups& downs of the next day, as I have been posting it after 8:30am
Keep in mind
I DONT MAKE THESE graphs
they are derived from a continuous data stream, and I convert it to a graph. The reason I post it after 8:30 is to give me a starting point. the end of the day is still difficult
to pick, but ive gotten better at it.
the other 2 graphs are posted after market to show comparisons of the EKG to the SPX & Market PULSE which updates every 5 minutes during the day.
Jaywiz
The view from Americanbulls
TNA was a confirmed SELL today. The candlestick today was a Long Black Candlestick (strong selling pressure).
TNA gapped up today, and then fell. The standard rules for a gap up after a SELL-IF signal is to sell when price falls to yesterday’s closing price.
AmericanBulls has this trade ending at $55.43 (their close for yesterday)
I have this trade ending at $55.41 (yesterday’s close on Interactive Brokers).
TZA has a confirmed BUY today. The candlestick today was White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).
TZA gapped down today, and then rose. The standard rule for a gap down after a BUY-IF signal is to buy when price rises to yesterday’s closing price.
AmericanBulls has this trade starting at $7.11 (their close for yesterday)
I have this trade starting at $7.12 (yesterday’s close on Interactive Brokers).
Summary of $RUT based ETFs:
Sell Confirmed: IWM (1x), UWM (2x), TNA (3x)
Buy Confirmed: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Action for tomorrow: none
Comment: TZA (-3x) was up 3.79% today from the AmericanBulls recommended buy price to the close. RWM (-1x) was up 1.37% & TWM (-2x) was up 2.63%.
Very good points SC. There was one fakeout on the MACD on the way up since February, and anyone who solely used MACD to make trades would have gotten scorched.
TZA opened down 1.0%. Gap was filled. TZA was up 4.7% at the high, and closed up 3.8%.
We are in a New Moon Trade, which favors TZA.
After four days, this trade is down 4.3%. AmericanBulls issued a sell March 17th so this trade was in cash today and did not benefit from the 3.8% rise today. This trade will buy TZA again once AmericanBulls issues a confirmed BUY signal, or an unconfirmed high probability BUY-IF signal.
Volume for TZA was the 4th highest of the last 18 days.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 4.7% with TZA up 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA has now been up 4 of the last 6 days.
The low for TZA today was $7.04. The low two days ago was $6.93 which is the lowest TZA price ever.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA bottomed at 20 twenty trading days ago and has generally risen since then but has remained below 50 and is currently 42. Indicating continued weakness for TZA. Today’s value jumped 8 points today & was highest of the last 20 days, so the Ultimate Oscillator is in a definite up trend. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s long white candle remains in the congestion area but closed above the Bollinger mid-line (20 day MA). The lower Bollinger band stopped falling. MACD has crossed from below and is rising. Looks like $RVX is rising. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The large red candle for $RUT seems to mark a change in character downward. Looks like a topping process for $RUT is well underway. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s red candle fell to the bottom of the congestion area. The upper Bollinger Band seems to be falling. Looks like a topping process is well under way, which is good for TZA.
TZA had a much higher high, higher low and much higher close – good for TZA.
Yesterday, money flow for the Total Stock Market was $250 million flowing out of the market. That made sense. Today, the same site says $22,547 million (That would be $22 billion and change) flowed into the market, on a down day. If this makes sense to anyone, please speak up.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks like TZA will rise Monday.