I'm trying to avoid some of the chop by looking at all six of the $RUT based ETF's.
I hadn't realized it at the time, but when TNA flipped to a sell a few days ago, only 3 of the 6 ETFs flipped. Sure enough, TNA flipped right back. Now all six are aligned again.
I was thinking that myself. The unconfirmed signals that don't confirm are no problem, they just go away. It's the confirmed signals that immediately reverse that get really irritating.
See the chart I made for Monica. I think AB is going to have a lot of unconfirmed buy-if/sell-ifs while we chop sideways and make a top. I think MACD and RSI are telling us that the top is very near.
Pay attention to the MACD. See how the lines cross (red and black)? When red is on top, that's a bearish trend. When black is on top, that's bullish. We are approaching a crossover of those lines. For a conservative trader, that's the time to short. When black crosses over red heading up, that's when you cover. You don't get the entire move, but you do get most of it.
When the MACD is trending down, and price is trending up? That's a divergence.
Sometime next week, the lines should cross (barring shenanigans). There should be some retracement of this monster gain.
TNA has a SELL-IF (sell if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TNA was down 1.0% on the first day since the buy signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls price points have TNA slightly up.
TZA has a BUY-IF (buy if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was White Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TZA was up 1.0% on the first day since the sell signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls has this at down 0.4%, using their buy and sell points.
Summary of $RUT based ETFs: SELL-IF: IWM (1x), TNA (3x) Both low reliability Bearish Harami SELL-IF: UWM (2x) High reliability Bearish Dark Cloud Cover SELL-IF: $RUT (1x) not very high reliability Bearish Harami Cross BUY-IF: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) All low reliability Bullish Harami
Action for tomorrow: Possibly buy TZA, Possibly sell TNA.
That chart has looked that way for awhile (16 month chart), and could look that way for many weeks to come — just needs to climb that wall (of worry) and stay away from that line 🙂
As hard as options are, $VIX options are crazy hard. I don't dare touch them. Better leave that to pros like Lester.
Or buy vix calls
Dreadwin,
I'm trying to avoid some of the chop by looking at all six of the $RUT based ETF's.
I hadn't realized it at the time, but when TNA flipped to a sell a few days ago, only 3 of the 6 ETFs flipped. Sure enough, TNA flipped right back. Now all six are aligned again.
Here's another piece of the puzzle. Real Estate. $DJUSRE:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
It closed outside of the upper BB yesterday, and inside today. We need a lower close tomorrow to confirm the sell signal.
The MACD is all crazy and stupid, but RSI is really overbought.
I'd like to see the $VIX do a crazy stupid move beneath its lower BB. I wouldn't be able to hold back. I'd have to short something.
Dreadwin,
I was thinking that myself. The unconfirmed signals that don't confirm are no problem, they just go away. It's the confirmed signals that immediately reverse that get really irritating.
See the chart I made for Monica. I think AB is going to have a lot of unconfirmed buy-if/sell-ifs while we chop sideways and make a top. I think MACD and RSI are telling us that the top is very near.
I have charted $RUT for you.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Pay attention to the MACD. See how the lines cross (red and black)? When red is on top, that's a bearish trend. When black is on top, that's bullish. We are approaching a crossover of those lines. For a conservative trader, that's the time to short. When black crosses over red heading up, that's when you cover. You don't get the entire move, but you do get most of it.
When the MACD is trending down, and price is trending up? That's a divergence.
Sometime next week, the lines should cross (barring shenanigans). There should be some retracement of this monster gain.
The view from Americanbulls
TNA has a SELL-IF (sell if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was a Black Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TNA was down 1.0% on the first day since the buy signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls price points have TNA slightly up.
TZA has a BUY-IF (buy if conditions are right tomorrow) signal today. The candlestick today was White Spinning Top (complete indecision between the Bulls & Bears). The last two candlesticks formed a Bullish Harami Pattern. Reliability of this pattern is low, and requires confirmation.
TZA was up 1.0% on the first day since the sell signal confirmation yesterday. AmericanBulls has this at down 0.4%, using their buy and sell points.
Summary of $RUT based ETFs:
SELL-IF: IWM (1x), TNA (3x) Both low reliability Bearish Harami
SELL-IF: UWM (2x) High reliability Bearish Dark Cloud Cover
SELL-IF: $RUT (1x) not very high reliability Bearish Harami Cross
BUY-IF: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x) All low reliability Bullish Harami
Action for tomorrow: Possibly buy TZA, Possibly sell TNA.
That chart has looked that way for awhile (16 month chart), and could look that way for many weeks to come — just needs to climb that wall (of worry) and stay away from that line 🙂
Tim on SOH has a nice looking chart of $rut up. Check it out.