1156-1170 estimate today for /ES (14 points, June contract) (1163.50 mid point) 1156.25 -1163.25 actual today (7 points) Mostly stayed in the lower half of Carl’s range
Trades: In /ES at 1161.75, out at 1159.25 (loss of 2.5) In /ES at 1161.25, out at 1159.25 (Loss of 2)
Grade D (lost some money, too optimistic on range estimate)
in my chart below you'll see every broken containment pt. gets backtested. The red containment pt. that held the IWM in January is going to get re-tested and presents a problem for the bullish structure in place as it is below the January highs and falling daily. The IWM January high was 64.87 and the red containment pt. is now @ 63.96 and falling about .02 per day.
TZA is challenging the 7.15 level again. A few days (?) back I thought 7.15 would be a good buy (with 7.145 as a stop). TZA wanted to go and explore lower price levels, first. $RUT is more clearly topping than $DJUSRE. $RUT will lead on the way down, I suspect.
I've been hanging on forever saying one more week for ever. Monday is the latest that my indicators can work. Otherwise, my whole thesis is out the window and there is no point in holding.
Carl at day’s end:
1156-1170 estimate today for /ES (14 points, June contract) (1163.50 mid point)
1156.25 -1163.25 actual today (7 points)
Mostly stayed in the lower half of Carl’s range
Trades:
In /ES at 1161.75, out at 1159.25 (loss of 2.5)
In /ES at 1161.25, out at 1159.25 (Loss of 2)
Grade D (lost some money, too optimistic on range estimate)
I have been early on TZA *cough*. RSI on $RUT looks attractive.
$RUT : IWM setup
in my chart below you'll see every broken containment pt. gets backtested. The red containment pt. that held the IWM in January is going to get re-tested and presents a problem for the bullish structure in place as it is below the January highs and falling daily. The IWM January high was 64.87 and the red containment pt. is now @ 63.96 and falling about .02 per day.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44439…
TZA is challenging the 7.15 level again. A few days (?) back I thought 7.15 would be a good buy (with 7.145 as a stop). TZA wanted to go and explore lower price levels, first. $RUT is more clearly topping than $DJUSRE. $RUT will lead on the way down, I suspect.
Thanks – looks like we may have one day left before VIX reaches containment.
CAT is dying a slow death, it's been dancing with a knot of max contain pts. since October
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44438…
RIMM also provides some great setups
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44431…
Thank you.
I've been hanging on forever saying one more week for ever. Monday is the latest that my indicators can work. Otherwise, my whole thesis is out the window and there is no point in holding.
Hang on for 1 more week. 🙂
Carl just sold long unit at 1159.25