As for the SPY put volume… I wouldn't rely too much on that as you are right, it could be just a hedge. However, that large stock, (not options), sell of Goldman is telling us that they, or someone, is locking in profits before a possible sell off.
After the sell off is over, I do think we could see new high over the spring and summer though….
1131-1145 estimate today for /ES (14 points) 1134 -1145.25 actual today (11.25 points) Missed the low by 3 points, nailed the high.
Trades: Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.50 yesterday, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.75 points) Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.75 today, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.50 points)
Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.
Carl and you had a better day than me.
As for the SPY put volume… I wouldn't rely too much on that as you are right, it could be just a hedge. However, that large stock, (not options), sell of Goldman is telling us that they, or someone, is locking in profits before a possible sell off.
After the sell off is over, I do think we could see new high over the spring and summer though….
Carl at day’s end:
1131-1145 estimate today for /ES (14 points)
1134 -1145.25 actual today (11.25 points)
Missed the low by 3 points, nailed the high.
Trades:
Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.50 yesterday, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.75 points)
Bought 1 unit of /ES at 1138.75 today, sold it today at 1143.25 (gain of 4.50 points)
Grade B
update 4:01 SPY's containment pt. remains in control
update 4:01 est SPY was rejected @ controlling TL
Also huge put volume on the SPY today but it could be a hedge as well which could be bad for bears – just depends on whether it was a straight position or a hedge.
Thanks for all the good info Red. From my guestimate based on Jack's cyclical cycle, we could start selling off as early as tomorrow or as late as early next week. I have the same thoughts as you – either they sell off from here, or they take it to a point above 1150 where many will be forced to cover. I would imagine that would send the S&P to at least 1160. Hope it's the first scenario. Whichever one it is, I believe the market is headed lower in the coming weeks. P3 theory out the window if we make new highs.
Carl sold both units at 1143.25
SPY controlling TL update
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44198…
this chart is the reason why the operators haven't let the $SPX run yet like they have with the $RUT and $NDX
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43590…
consecutive monthly closes above that purple line and we're going to test the all time highs,
what would cause such a move; currency event
Now do I think this is a very probable scenario; no
The time element co-relational to the regulatory aspect of the market can be very telling
SPY 1/21 -1/22/2010 = 2 trading days
114.27 – 109.09 on ~ 690,000,000
SPY 2/16/2010 – 3/5/2010 = 14 trading days
108.86 – 114.34 on roughly 3.5x total volume of 1/21-1/22