I have to admit, I didn't think it would get this high. Not at all. But… that's what a wave 2 is supposed to do! Scare the crap out of bears and give hope to the bulls.
my educated guess is we gap lower on the open and then tag the MIDDLE Boll. Band tomorrow at 1082 or so, then rally hard to unchanged or so.
Thurs. unemployment claims. Last week was low (read stronger economy) BUT there was the snowstorm. I think people didn't get around to making the claims (have to drive into “town”) So the next week (we'll see tomorrow) the number will be extra high (read week economy). This may accentuate the “theoretical” gap lower tomorrow.
Ah 🙂 Got it. Should have noticed that something else was going on because the futures are up a bit since the close. TZA got massacred (again) right after close but has recovered a bit.
I put out an idea a few days ago and it is worth repeating. There is a chance, albeit a very very tiny one, that we have a November 2008 style opex. Big move down followed by crazy move up. All in the same day. We had something similar when we touched the 1040s a couple weeks ago.
I just watched myself Ben. I think his second possibility is the most likely path for next week. I think they will run up next week and close out February positive.
Also, if they take it down to 1080 or so by Friday, that would draw in a lot of bears thinking the move down to 1030 or so has started. Then rally back next week to squeeze them all out. That's just the way they do it.
That works well with a nice Elliottwave ABC move up too. Could be a 5 wave move too. There is a key turn date coming up in the first week of March. When I know it, I'll post it. But, I suspect it will occur when we tag that master resistance level between 112.00-112.50 spy.
I know sundancer was taking about a gap fill at 1127.38 too. Not sure what that is on the spy, but I'd say it's closer to 113.00. That could happen intraday, but I don't see any daily close on that level, as the 112.00-112.50 is the daily resistance.
Looks like March could be ugly. But, let's see what tomorrow brings first…
I have to admit, I didn't think it would get this high. Not at all. But… that's what a wave 2 is supposed to do! Scare the crap out of bears and give hope to the bulls.
my educated guess is we gap lower on the open and then tag the MIDDLE Boll. Band tomorrow at 1082 or so, then rally hard to unchanged or so.
Thurs. unemployment claims. Last week was low (read stronger economy) BUT there was the snowstorm. I think people didn't get around to making the claims (have to drive into “town”) So the next week (we'll see tomorrow) the number will be extra high (read week economy). This may accentuate the “theoretical” gap lower tomorrow.
Dread, the $Rut broke above the 68% fib line (622). I hope that's it and it comes back down for a while.
dreadwin,
I see what you mean. He did call the top on that one. He got a bigger drop than he called for, but I can forgive that 🙂
Ah 🙂 Got it. Should have noticed that something else was going on because the futures are up a bit since the close. TZA got massacred (again) right after close but has recovered a bit.
I put out an idea a few days ago and it is worth repeating. There is a chance, albeit a very very tiny one, that we have a November 2008 style opex. Big move down followed by crazy move up. All in the same day. We had something similar when we touched the 1040s a couple weeks ago.
dreadwin,
I was trying to lift Monica's spirits 🙂
(I can't do anything for her portfolio)
Focus, focus, focus.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
I haven't tried chanting. It's worth a shot.
Here's one from last month:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2010/01/update.html
I Like Carl's style, but haven't followed him long enough to have seen him call a “reaction move”. Look forward to it.
One of my regular practices is that I check out Kenny and Daneric's pages. If they both agree 100%, the market often does something else.
I just watched myself Ben. I think his second possibility is the most likely path for next week. I think they will run up next week and close out February positive.
Also, if they take it down to 1080 or so by Friday, that would draw in a lot of bears thinking the move down to 1030 or so has started. Then rally back next week to squeeze them all out. That's just the way they do it.
That works well with a nice Elliottwave ABC move up too. Could be a 5 wave move too. There is a key turn date coming up in the first week of March. When I know it, I'll post it. But, I suspect it will occur when we tag that master resistance level between 112.00-112.50 spy.
I know sundancer was taking about a gap fill at 1127.38 too. Not sure what that is on the spy, but I'd say it's closer to 113.00. That could happen intraday, but I don't see any daily close on that level, as the 112.00-112.50 is the daily resistance.
Looks like March could be ugly. But, let's see what tomorrow brings first…