This rally has been very powerful from the low at 104 last week.  Today the Bull took a breather before running higher again.  I don't think this rally is over yet as the daily charts are pointing up, and will probably remain so through all of next week, as they slowly top out and roll over into early March.  I do think we are due for a little pullback first... and then another move up. How far? I don't think it will be too far, or too easy next week. In fact, I think it will be a chop fest, as they swing back and forth the whole week.
I don't know if they will get through the huge resistance area at 110.35-110.50, and the 200dma just a hair above that. The next area of major resistance is 112.00-112.50, which I would love to see hit by next Friday, as that would be the absolute best place to go short for the expected fall into early March. I'm not telling anyone to go long next week, expecting that level to be hit. It's should be pretty wild next week, and the indexes aren't going to be safe for a swing trade. Stick to stocks or something, if you must trade.
But for this week, since 108 is the current pain on the SPY, I suspect they will close it around that level by Friday. Â That means I'm looking for a pullback tomorrow. Â There is support at the 109 level, and it could hold until Friday, and that might be the close? Â But, most Monday's are bullish, and that doesn't seem like it would be enough of a pullback before going higher. Â That means they might take it on down to fill that gap around 108... which is the current pain level too.
The current pain level isn't always accurate on the indexes, but sometimes it is. Â I find it more accurate on individual stocks, as they can push the price of stocks a lot easier then an index. Â Pinning a stock at a certain level on opx is very common, as the market maker always want to maximize profits by paying out the least amount of money as possible.
The indexes are a little tougher to move and pin at a certain level.  That's why I wouldn't be surprised if it only pulls back to the 109 area tomorrow, and possibly Friday too.  However, the light volume makes it easy to move the market where you want it to stop.  If I had too guess, I'd say about 108.50 on the close Friday.Â
The only thing that concerns me is the bull flag that formed today on the 60 minute chart (kinda looks like a bull flag?). Â They could push it up (in the pre-market) through the resistance level of 110.35-110.50 and then send it back down taking out all the stop above key levels. Â As I said above, I don't see a lot of downside between now and this Friday, because of the fact that the options expire this week.
So, I'm looking for about 108.50 by Friday, (and a choppy market next week).  Any lower would really surprise me.  The Bulls own this tape right now, and the ball is in their hands. But next week will be a battle between the two, as they try to squeeze out both sides before they tank it the following week.
With this week, and next week's close of around the same area, we will then have a nice bear flag on the week chart, which sets us up for a nice fall the first week of March. Nothing is for sure of course, as my bearish stance last week (and early this week) put a hurting on my account, and pride. But, I'm still in the game... for today at least.Â
🙂
Red
AFTERHOURS UPDATE:
Saved By Fed's...
Quick update here gang. In case you haven't heard, the Fed raise rates from .50 to .75 points (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-discount-rate-says-not-tightening-2010-02-18). I'm expecting a lot selling tomorrow, so you bears might be saved. Below is a screen shot of a fake print. The target area is 107.38 spy. I don't know if that's tomorrow, or if it happens over the next few days? After that, we should bounce. More later on my nightly post.
Here's the print, not showing the actual number in the upper left of the screen...
Here's the print with my mouse over the line, showing the close of the print in the upper left side of the screen.
It seems the desire to predict the future is an obsession with all of us. Wish I could kick the habit!
Yes, don't we all wish we could see the future?
Bingo!!! You are onto something. You have stumbled across the truth. 🙂 Now, don't just get up and keep walking….
I just looked at the McClellan oscillator. It looks overextended and the MACD looks like it could top soon. I sure wouldn't be getting long here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
I don't see us starting our big wave 3 down yet Monica. We need one more week of a choppy market to put in a nice bear flag on the week. Plus the month ends next week, and I think the big move will happen in the first week of March.
I'd really like to see 112.00-112.50 spy next week. Just stay out of the market for now. Don't lose anymore money. I'm not going to make that mistake again. That one really hurt.
We need to work off the daily rising MACD, which should go up and start to roll back down next week. Hang tough… no more big mistakes.
As for tomorrow, and Friday… the current pain is 108, but 109 is almost at the same level. So, I'd say they split the difference and close about 108.50 Friday. That assumes that the current pain is accurate?
I know it only takes into account the last 3-4 weeks of options activite, whereas the option pain includes everything from the time the option month was created. That could be up to 2 1/2 years ago. That's why it's free, and the current pain isn't.
We'll see for tomorrow. I think sundancer said that apple looked bearish for tomorrow, and I guess you heard about gold dropping afterhours because some country (I think?) said they were going to sell ton's of it.
Daneric also has the dollar starting a possible wave 3 of wave 3 up, so all things are looking like a pullback tomorrow.
Thanks Red – now I have to figure out whether to hold onto the bearish positions I already have and go along for the ride or just to reenter. The IMF is issuing gold. Thanks for your advice. You are right – we look almost overbought, but not quite there yet.
If I were you I would listen to “chart pattern trader” that Red has on his blog list.
Now he's talkin “wave three”
“maybe a little more up” then down to 1030
http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/index.php
I just watched myself Ben. I think his second possibility is the most likely path for next week. I think they will run up next week and close out February positive.
Also, if they take it down to 1080 or so by Friday, that would draw in a lot of bears thinking the move down to 1030 or so has started. Then rally back next week to squeeze them all out. That's just the way they do it.
That works well with a nice Elliottwave ABC move up too. Could be a 5 wave move too. There is a key turn date coming up in the first week of March. When I know it, I'll post it. But, I suspect it will occur when we tag that master resistance level between 112.00-112.50 spy.
I know sundancer was taking about a gap fill at 1127.38 too. Not sure what that is on the spy, but I'd say it's closer to 113.00. That could happen intraday, but I don't see any daily close on that level, as the 112.00-112.50 is the daily resistance.
Looks like March could be ugly. But, let's see what tomorrow brings first…
Carl Futia just now:
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1105. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.
Note: Estimate yesterday 1088-1102
Estimate today 1088-1105
the operators make me laugh
study this chart of the SPY & it's max contain pt. very closely
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43680…
the dancing was initiated with the max. contain pt. on 1/22/2010 and 19 TD's later we're still dancing with the max contain pt.
what I have highlighted on the above chart is the SPY hasn't had 2 consecutive closes above it's max contain pt. since the dancing was initiated on 1/22/2010
we will know the move to fill the gap @ 1127.38 SPX has begun when we get 2 consecutive closes above the max contain pt.
today the operators opened the SPY right on its max contain pt. so today's close is extremely important as to whether it confirms the move above the max contain pt. or not
The current pain moved up to 109 this morning, but the 108 is almost the same. The contracts open in the last month only are as follows…
108 puts $66,584,100
108 calls $62,585,500
109 puts $39,674,400
109 calls $88,591,300
106 total $184,918,800
107 total $146,538,100
108 total $129,169,600
109 total $128,265,700
110 total $146,956,500
111 total $186,157,300
Again, I don't know how accurate it is on the indexes (that's the spy above), but it works pretty well for the individual stocks. But, you can see by the total value that somewhere between 108 and 109 is the ideal closing price. Whether they do it or not, I don't know?
The fact that it is opx Friday might be a reason to back off a little first, and then push up next week to that final gap fill.
I've heard the opposite from Pra and Anna — current pain only works on SPY and the other indexes. That's how it has played out over the last few months, anyway.
It will be interesting to see where they close it tomorrow… that's for sure.
CP on SPY is at 109 as of today 🙂
Thanks, Pra! The MM's are certainly keeping the tape elevated at the moment.
I think we are just grinding up. What is going to bring it down?
$RVX ($RUT's vix) is up today. It's a big divergence from SPX. We'll see if it holds.
FYI
The correction is over. Several bottom spotting signals have been confirmed. Capitulation day was Feb4. Across the board momentum changes occured last Thursday. Confirmation of resumption of up trend appeared on Feb 16.
Any dip that happens along the way to new high, is not a signal to the beginning of P3. The market is in “Buy the Dip” mode. Don't fight the tape. You can scalp your shorts. But holding shorts in hope of P3 now will get your clock cleaned.
Thanks for the update SC, but before believe that the correction is over, I'd like to see the monthly and weekly charts start to roll back up. I don't see that happening anytime soon, but I'm open to the possibility of P3 not starting yet. Anything is possible.
Carl went long 1099.75, sold at 1096.75 (loss of 3)
Guess he uses stops
Why would he go long into major resistance? That 110.35-110.50 is some major resistance, and until it breaks, no one should be going long. The 110.50 is the 200dma, which has a 85-90% chance of holding back any advance on the first hit.
Once we sell off a little first, and go back up (if that happens… I don't know?), then it might break on the 2nd, or 3rd hit, but rarely does that happen on the first hit.
At the time, I thought he was going long because /ES broke above 1100 (which had been touched twice yesterday), expecting a run up.
Erl, GM, What you up to this morning.
Good Morning, Gcocks,
Trying to figure out if I should buy some TNA.
Hard to read, so far.
Did you get out of TZA?
Nope. I would be owning both at the same time, just TNA would be short term scalp.
Gcocks,
Big volume spike on TNA without much corresponding movement. And no corresponding volume on TZA.
Wish I knew what it meant. Based on the last time I saw this kind of thing, it's a positive for TZA. Sample size of one (that I can recall), though.
i'm running low on bearish arguments. maybe the market is too. I'm thinking we'll make a run to the upper BB now at 1114 tomorrow at ?1110, and continue up on monday?
Ben, I don't see anything that hurts your thoughts.
intersting. In other words “I'm all over the map?” It's like I'm always drowning and I'm lashing out for a life preserver. Never enough money to “trade” but only do highly leveraged out of the money, soon to expire options that are 400:1 leveraged. What else am I to do with $270. I have gone from about $600 to $12,000-17,500 in a week a few time. Next time is going to be different.
Maybe next time you hit one out of the park, you should then just try for a single or double. It's very addicting. You have to be careful.
for those looking for a major turn in the indexes, the 10 year holds many clues as too the potential timing
$TNX daily successfully back tested max contain pt. on 2/5/2010
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43675…
$TNX weekly has been rejected @ it's controlling trend line the last four times, will the 5th time hold?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43675…
$RUT continues to lead in breaking max contain points on all time frames I monitor
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43683…
12:45 print will be very important, currently IWM is sitting on a spring board
SPY continues to dance around the 110.34 crash grap
What am I looking for at 12:45? Close above 110.34 is bullish, and close below is bearish?
12:45 print is more important on the IWM than SPY given the current setup
yes the 110.34 level on the SPY
more importantly for the afternoon session on the SPY is the daily max containment setup i spoke of this morning, if we get a confirming close over the max containment point the lights go out for those with bearish positions
Please tell me if that happens so I can close out my shorts.
195 min print:
SPY
12:45 110.33 close
12:45 110.34 open
So bearish then Sundancer?
neutral, they closed the morning candle a penny below and then gapped the SPY a penny for the open of the afternoon candle
the operators have a ton of shorts trapped right now and it looks like they aren't going to let them out of their positions easily
Thanks Sundancer.
Yes, thanks Sundancer… you have been of great help. How do you feel about the close tomorrow? Do you hold much weight to the current pain stuff I posted earlier? I guess I mean, that if we do close above 110.34 today, and confirm a move up to the next level (1127.38)… won't they rally it more tomorrow?
Or, will they close above it and then sell off tomorrow to the 109 level to make sure they pay out as little as possible? I'm just trying to figure out the close tomorrow?
i don't really look too much into the max pain theory, it's works sometimes and sometimes it doesn't because options are only a part of their total book
i really don't have a bias for tomorrow other than the potential setups i've talked about so i don't know what to tell you
From looking at the action today, I'd say that 110 is the real max pain, not 109.
Carl is now long /ES at 1098.75
Had been long earlier today at 1099.75, sold it at 1096.75
Did the RUT break and close above containment at 12:45 Sundancer?
Whoever thinks the markets aren't controlled is dreaming. I have never seen such bizarre activity or lack thereof.
the RUT's been above 195 min max containment for 3 consecutive periods now, so that's a dangerous chart for anyone short the RUT given the setup above max contaiment on 60,120,195,daily,weekly
$RUT Monthly Chart of it's max containment pt.
it's bumped into max contain 4 times now, will the 5th time hold?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43677…
next stop on the $RUT is 634.28 (max contain pt.monthly)
next friday is going to be for all the marbles…
$RVX is up today, which is suggesting to me that it will contain $RUT.
Do you suspect that they will run up the market next week to tag the 1127.38 spx level and the 634.28 rut level to close out the month before the dump in the first week of March?
bingo, the $RUT has always been a good tell on big moves as it broke it max contain on the monthly back at the end of May of 03' before any of the other indexes had broke max contain
it will be dancing with the 634.28 level at the end of next week and i suspect it will fail to close above it as there is a daily de-leverage area that needs to be hit in order to free up some capital which is IWM 54.34, the SPX de-leverage pt. is 965.95 which is why it makes a break of monthly contain highly unlikely now
Does it matter if they close the market above 110.34 spy today? They have Bullish Monday next week, so they could easely break that level and head on up to 1127.38 by Friday next week.
But, the adx is losing steam and probably needs to re-cycle back up to reach that level. That's why I was really expecting a dip tomorrow to 109, and then a rally all of next week. Maybe they will close it right here at 110 tomorrow, but that doesn't give them much time to dip down a little before running higher.
Puzzling to say the least. The 110 level must be the max pain for tomorrow, that's all I can figure out.
there hasn't been a dip all week to let the shorts out or the longs in so the chance of a dip coming is losing probability as we draw in on the weekly close
we could flat line here and close the week @ 110.34 then gap out of this range on monday
if they gap the market tomorrow morning out this range then they'll close the market on the weekly highs
Looks like we will gap up tomorrow Sun… I don't see any stopping this now.
That is what happens in a bull rally. 🙂 People will just watch in disbelief.
But the data is showing strong across the board surge in momentum. The index charts are not picking that up.
the $RUT is out of the barn so to speak, that was a pretty reliable setup i posted about in my 12:45 update
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43683…
I think i called it a “spring board” setup in my other post
we'll see where they close it at, there was a lot stops they just now knocked out
looks like a trend week to me
I'd say they took out about every stop left on that move up. Now what we are looking for is a close above 110.34 to confirm next week as being up… correct?
you speak and show these various lines, containment points BUT you don't identify what these lines are. They are not labeled on your posts and you don't tell us. Which means we really can't learn from your posts
you can use any MA with a multiple of 8 and you'll be able to see how the market dances
containment points or trendlines help you identify when the de-leverage area will be hit
you've heard me talking about the two SPX gaps for two weeks now 1085.89,1127.38 as I've said in previous posts those intra-day gaps are left on purpose as de-leverage points, if you watch the SPY you'll see rogue ticks, they serve the same function as a indicator to all regulators in the market where the de-leverage area is
This is done on all regulated issues within the market
Did you see my post on DE yesterday?
here's a chart: http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43647…
Thanks Sun… I seen it. I guess we will gap up again tomorrow too, as I don't see it falling any now until it hit's the 1127.38 target next week.
That current pain was useless, as it looks like it will close at 111.00 tomorrow. I glad I didn't purchase it.
thank you. Why do you call it a “deleverage area”. You mean an area “to sell”
When you run into such materials, bring out your charting program and see if you can clone their tools. That is how you learn. It isnt that hard, once you have the basic fundamental knowledge. But you do need to have the basic fundamental knowledge about TA.
bensjoyce,
It is not possible to learn anything from sundancer, or to make sense of his posts. That's that way he wants it.
Sold half my TZA. The rest of it is for sale after hours.
In and out of TNA before the close.
Woops.. Fed made an after market announcement. AH tanking.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-hikes-disc…
Holy Crap! Just when you least expect it! By the way, there is a fake print at 107.38 spy!
gap down tomorrow
were did you see that?
In my Ameritrade account, on the 10 minute chart. There is a fake print to 107.38 spy. It will go there first before a bounce. If you've been reading for awhile, you know how accurate those are.
As Sundancer stated, it's the way the operators tell people where they are going to take it. Don't know if it will go there tomorrow, as that's a bit of a stretch… but it will go there.
I bought puts yesterday anticipating 105 by opex. But I thought it would have been a stretch and a bit too chancey 107 is more like it. I still feel by march opex it should hit 105. If it hits 107 I'll dump the puts wait for the bounce and then buy puts again.
Love you blog keep it up
you have a screen shot?
Not sure about conspiracy. But 107.38 is right at a major support (calculated using a modified MA) and if the spy bounces off that level, then that there is dinner bell for all the bulls. But most people would probably be too scared to go long by then.
That 1047 misprint was amazing. The question is whether lightning will strike twice..:)
Carl sold his /ES at 1105.50.
Two trades for the day:
Long /ES at 1099.75, sold it at 1096.75 (loss of 3)
Long /ES at 1098.75, sold it at 1105.50 (gain of 6.75)
Sundancer… where are you? What do you make of this? And the fake print… is that where it's going tomorrow? 107.38?
i don't have anything @ 107.38, AH tape show low of 109.91
yipeeeeeeeeee! (I hope)
I don't know what tomorrow will bring… but the bulls are going to be sore, that's for sure!
I think what will happen overnight is “sell first, ask questions later”. And hopefully tomorrow, too.
I made an impulsive “must short BIDU” trade before the close. Bought a small number of 490 puts that expire tomorrow. Should be interesting!
Congrats to both of us then dread… Let's hope they take it there tomorrow! Sweet… I'm saved by the bell!
I doubt this “crash” is going to last. These two doses of bad news will be factored in. i would guess in the first hour of the European open the S&P finds a bottom and starts to rally.
On the other hand, I am probably the worst trader East of the Mississippi.
Ben, I'm pretty sure we are going to 107.38 spy, and then a bounce (maybe not tomorrow, but in a few days for sure)
TZA closed down 2.5% today.
We are in a New Moon Trade (favors TZA).
[ After three days, this trade is DOWN 9.2% ]
Volume today for TZA has been roughly the same these past 3 days.
RVX (VIX for RUT) closed 3.7% lower.
TZA has now been down seven days in a row.
Ultimate Oscillator was as 23.31 — fairly oversold.
Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again on Friday, except for a +0.50% interest rate announcement after hours. TZA was up 16 cents after hours, and because of the interest rate change can be expected to go up tomorrow.
3 min chart from today showing de-leverage areas SPY 110.35
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43683…
there is a reason why i wrote a post about the $TNX 10 year today
REFRESH YOUR PAGE FOR FAKE PRINT CHARTS.
Way cool.
here's my two cents
Pardon my conspiracy theory but why not (the manipulators) place the bad news right before opex fri. Bad news for the stocks is the hike in the Disc. Rate and lousy Dell news (minus 5% AH) The plunge protection team can get the most bang for their buck. The PPT will take advantage of the low overnight volume and spike the ES etc futures up overnight (let me guess an hour after London opens as we reach the 1090 $SPX (ES 1087)where Tony Caldaro says is Pivot support. When we wake in the am. most of the damage will be corrected. “The futures are well off their lows” CNBC will say.
On the other hand I'm not a good trader (yet)
You're thinking is right on ben. There will be some selling but they will try to close this at the current pain… which is now about 110. I'm expecting selling early on, and then the PPT will come in to save the day, and close at 110.
Sounds about right. Futures are ramping and the European markets have been open for about an hour.
I can't believe the fake print Red. Incredible. Thanks for posting it. I will be amazing if that becomes the support level.
I'm working on tonight's post now Monica, and it should be up by 10pm est. And yes, very fishy indeed.
Sounds about right. Futures are ramping and the European markets have been open for about an hour.