Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Bull Fever…

bull-market

Looks like the Bulls blew past the Bears like they were standing still today!  A bomb was set off outside of a JP Morgan office in Greece.  No one was hurt, but I'm sure some important records about anything to do with Greece, were burnt up in the explosion.  After all, how else can you cover up all the illegal deals you did with Greece?  It's the America way of course.  I guess the market seen the news as positive, so the rally continued.

Unless some major news event happens, I'd expect tomorrow to be a pause day before moving higher to the 110.34 spy level.  The 108.00 level is the current pain for this Friday, so it could slowly drift on back down to that level by then.  That's the best way too screw the bulls and bears both, so that would be my best guess as to what should happen the rest of the week.

I have too admit, this has been a big disappoint for me, as I totally missed this move up, and got caught short as well.  The daily charts are looking bullish now, and the 60 minute chart is a little overbought, but it still could run a little higher.  The bulls are back in control of the tape now, as the light volume clearly dictates that.

During the large down move, volume was well over 200 million, and even over 400 million on day.  Today was only about 150 million, which is the same as it's always been during this bear market rally from the March 2009 low.  Light volume usually means an up market, as the big institutions are waiting for higher levels to start selling again.  Where, and when is the question I can't answer.

Not much else to add.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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dreadwin
14 years ago

Short term, we look overbought to me, especially in leading indexes like $RUT. Where are you getting your current pain info from?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I have a friend that tells me… I'm sure you can figure it out who, but I won't say. And yes, we could pull back a little tomorrow, but the bulls are in control now, and I think they will go to 110.34 before a decent pullback

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Here's something from Cobra's site:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

The gist of this chart is that V shaped bottoms are really really rare. Odds are we retest the recent low and break it; putting in a more rounded bottom.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I'm sure we will go down and test that bottom… and break it, but not in the next few days. Light volume rules right now, and there isn't any big institutions selling yet. They are waiting for a higher level… where? I don't know?

I'd love to see a big sell off tomorrow and into Friday, but it's highly unlikely. Remember, I've been short for a week now and just took it up the wazoo on the BS rally. But, you can't win them all… unless you are God (I mean Goldman Sachs).

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Don't know if you saw this post by Fujisan:

http://slopeofhope.com/2010/02/feb-option-expir

…but, she really nailed today's high of the day. Current pain at 108 would add support to her projections.

A zig zag up to 113 seems crazy bullish to me right now, but it fits the requirements of a wave 2 retrace. If that plays out, I'll promise myself not to get short too early 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

That would make the most sense to me as well. I'll have to check on what the current pain is, but it was 108 as of last Friday.

lulala1234
lulala1234
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

dread, time to look at the rut/rvx again.. it is about to touch the upper BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT:%24RVX&

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  lulala1234

Good catch. $RUT has been up the last 6 days! If one bought $RUT at the $RUT:$RVX buy signal, and held it all the way, they'd be green (barely). Maybe the better move is to short TZA, instead.

I don't think it is going to make it to the upper BB this week. In fact, I'd put $$$ on that.

lulala1234
lulala1234
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

agreed…. the rally is a bit stretched…

2010/2/17 Disqus <>

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

just speculating but fed min come out at 2pm est. for the meeting of two weeks ago. Bernake spoke one week ago and the market tanked on his talk. He mentioned some details of exit stratedgy. If he said this 4 or 5 work days post fed meeting won't the minutes today echo the same? Will it have a bear effect. BTW the stock did tank of Bernake but recovered a lot in about a half hour.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

update 7:56 est

SPY currently trading 110.35, the open will be very important as the max containment pt. on the daily is 110.09

As dreadwin noted the RUT has been leading this move, it broke through it's max contain pt. on the daily friday
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43645

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I fully expect it to hit 110.35 this morning, but after that I don't know? With current pain at 108 (as of last Friday), a small pullback to 108 by Friday could happen? But, as strong as the bulls are right now, they may trade sideways and close at 110?

If will reach 110.35 today and pullback to 110.09 for the close, what are you thoughts for the next 2 days. Close above 110.09, then pull back into Friday. Close below 110.09, then go sideways into Friday, with no pullback (less then a point)

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

9:15 est

SPY continues to dance with the crash gap @ 110.34

it looks as if its going to open above 110.09 so today's close and tomorrow's open will confirm where the direction will be for the rest of the week

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Red, Nice Post, I am feeling your pain in the shorts. Most of mine are March, so I still have some time.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Well, mine are Feb., so this trade really hurt the pocketbook… and pride.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

It happened to many extremely successful traders. 😀 Even the great Jim Rogers did it at the beginning. He once bet the farm on some stock options. Lost everything and got kicked out of the house by his first wife.

The key thing is, you need to figure out what you have learned in this trade. Then the loss is just an expensive tuition, and not really a loss. I can tell you what you should have learned from this, but it is not the same as you figuring it out yourself. 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

What I learned is that I should have listened to one of the subscription services that I pay for, as they were going long that whole move. They have been deadly accurate ever since I signed up for them 6 months ago.

But, I thought differently on that call, and paid for it dearly. You can bet that I won't go against their calls again.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, what service was that?

PRAMOD
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Is that ITMS? I subscribed to them recently and liking it so far……….

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

What if they are wrong next time?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Yeah, that's the issue you always have too deal with. Sometimes people are wrong. I subscribe to several different services, and read many different blogs. I then try to put it all together, but sometimes you miss the big picture.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl Futia just now:

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1088-1102. I think the ES has decisively broken out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. The market will reach 1200 over the next three months.

Note: his range is -10 to +3.5 from right here.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

Another setup completed:
DE
de-leverage point of $58 est. 1/25/2010
high today $58.05
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43647

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

What chart is that? That's not the spy… I don't recognize it. Also, do you see us closing on the low of the day (trend day down), or floating back up after the usual time frame of 10:30-11:30, but still closing lower then the open?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

the chart is of Deere & CO. ticker: DE

i don't have a bias for today, lots of dancing the first half of the day given the gap over the containment pt. and crash gap up above

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks… keep a eye out for another fake print on the spy, as I'm sure they will let their friends know before the take it down… probably from that 1127.38 level you spoke of.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Thanks Red – I still think the long term trend is down but it's not going to be easy. Some people feel we got to bearish and that's what popped the market. But the thing is, when things go down, don't people always become more bearish and that doesn't always mean a rally as was evident 2 years ago.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes Monica,

The trend is down longer term, but up for now. By early-mid March I think we will turn back down.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Well my only hesitation with that scenario is that everyone thinks it now! It never goes the way we predict. Maybe the best way to play it is look for the sentiment on the message boards and do the opposite.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

One of my regular practices is that I check out Kenny and Daneric's pages. If they both agree 100%, the market often does something else.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Who is Kenny and do they both agree today?

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Kenny's blog is here:

http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

I read it every day.

If I read Daneric's take correctly, he's saying that wave 2 is done in $RUT, Nasdaq failed to make it's wave 2 area. Kenny is saying that wave 2 isn't finished; that we'll squiggle sideways or lower tomorrow then up more to finish.

The doji on SPY today and IWM suggest to me that we go down tomorrow. GDX put in a black reversal candle yesterday, then a red doji today … aw heck, I'll just make a chart. See other comment.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

120 min setup is complete with the lower close from the open 9:30-11:30, as of the close yesterday we were @ 9 consecutive higher closes that carried a 93 percentile for a 1 period lower close

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I wish I understood what that means? Does that mean we are going back up, or down? What's the odds each way?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

this setup came from the 120 min time frame, the 9 consecutive higher closes than opens as of yesterday close carried a 93 percent chance of a lower close than open,

so today's example SPY opened @ 110.27 9:30 and closed 109.89 @ 11:30 thus completing this setup

There might be a setup on the 195 min print @ 12:45, I'll have to see where it closes

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Interesting thought process. look forward to seeing 12:45 picture.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

12:45 195 print came through with a lower close than the opening (9:30) thus voiding a potential setup

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

I think I understand you to be saying you think we close down? I enjoy reading your post but it is sometimes hard for me to understand.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

no with the 195 minute time frame 9:30-12:45, 12:45-4:00, there was a potential setup if we had gotten a higher 12:45 close than 9:30 opening on the SPY, but we didn't, so i don't have a bias for the 12:45-4:00 time frame

sorry if i'm hard to understand there is a lot of inputs and parameters to these setups

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

That's helps. thanks, Now are you looking for a setup for tomorrow with the data from 12:45 -4:00?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

SPY opened and closed above it's max contain pt. on the daily

We'll see what the open is tomorrow, AAPL's print on the daily isn't very bullish

The last two thursday's have been a gap down

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks sun…

I took a small… very small short position today at 110.35 spy. I'm looking for a move down to 108-109 by Friday, as 108 is the current pain level for this opx.

No more large positions… as this last one hurt.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Apple did show some weakness today. I hope it carries over into tomorrow.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl Futia had a range for /ES today was 1088 – 1102.

Actually range was: 1092.50 – 1100.00

Grade: B

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Very soon now, maybe even tomorrow, Carl is going to call for a “reaction move” i.e. we're near the top of one of his big boxes/channels and need to retrace a bit. These moves are as large as 20 points.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I Like Carl's style, but haven't followed him long enough to have seen him call a “reaction move”. Look forward to it.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of
Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

dreadwin,

I see what you mean. He did call the top on that one. He got a bigger drop than he called for, but I can forgive that 🙂

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Dread, If you see that will you post to such?

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

I'll shoot you guys an email if some one else doesn't beat me to it.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

TZA closed down 1.8% today.

We are in a New Moon Trade (favors TZA).
[ After two days, this trade is DOWN 6.9% ]

Volume today for TZA was slightly more than yesterday, which at the time was the lowest of the last 21 days.

RVX (VIX for RUT) moved generally down all day, closing 4.0% lower.

TZA has now been down six days in a row.

Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again on Wednesday.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Did you do anything today? I bought a amzn put spread that anna recommended. Small amount.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Gcocks,

I added TZA at 9.42.

Didn't sell anything. Slow day.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

You are killing me Earl!

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Monica,

I can assure you that TZA will not go down tomorrow. No way.

It can't go down 7 days in a row. Think of the odds (not mentioned here because I don't know what they are but it's got to be a smallish number)

Plus the futures are down as I type this.

And the Ultimate Oscillator thing never fails.

And I would never carry my smelly pile of TZA overnight if I didn't expect a bounce (may be over using this one)

Best I can do 🙂

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

I think we need to go out and howl at the moon tonight.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

I can do that. I'll take my dog.

Walk around here without a dog, people think you're nuts.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

I am outside right now howling!

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

It can go down 7 days in a row. While unlikely, $RUT could touch the upper bollinger band with a 2% move. It is possible, albeit unlikely.

In early September, $RUT had a 9/10 day up streak. The only down day was a doji, and that's because it crashed into the upper BB.

I'm hanging on to my small short position, with the expectation that the markets go down into op. ex.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

dreadwin,

I was trying to lift Monica's spirits 🙂

(I can't do anything for her portfolio)

Focus, focus, focus.

TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.

I haven't tried chanting. It's worth a shot.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Ah 🙂 Got it. Should have noticed that something else was going on because the futures are up a bit since the close. TZA got massacred (again) right after close but has recovered a bit.

I put out an idea a few days ago and it is worth repeating. There is a chance, albeit a very very tiny one, that we have a November 2008 style opex. Big move down followed by crazy move up. All in the same day. We had something similar when we touched the 1040s a couple weeks ago.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

dreadwin,

I wasn't making up the futures being down.

I mean IB showed them down. Small red numbers.

They don't seem to use closing numbers for comparison — maybe 15 or so minutes after the close. Maybe.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Dread, the $Rut broke above the 68% fib line (622). I hope that's it and it comes back down for a while.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

I have to admit, I didn't think it would get this high. Not at all. But… that's what a wave 2 is supposed to do! Scare the crap out of bears and give hope to the bulls.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Well, it's working! At least on me 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Much better again Earl. Thank you!

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

No Monica, TZA, EDZ and a few others are killing you. Earl is just torturing you. LOL!!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

ha ha!

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Monica, FAZ up and Tza down. doesn't make sense.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  gcocks83

Nothing makes sense! But those two usually go in opposite directions for whatever reason.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

my educated guess is we gap lower on the open and then tag the MIDDLE Boll. Band tomorrow at 1082 or so, then rally hard to unchanged or so.

Thurs. unemployment claims. Last week was low (read stronger economy) BUT there was the snowstorm. I think people didn't get around to making the claims (have to drive into “town”) So the next week (we'll see tomorrow) the number will be extra high (read week economy). This may accentuate the “theoretical” gap lower tomorrow.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

I hope you are right. Sounds like we need to be alert tomorrow.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

What makes you think we will rally?

dreadwin
14 years ago

GDX is basically saying “short me, I'm going down”. It has printed a candle pattern that I wish I had noticed before the close.

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

In addition the vix is forming a bearish wedge and you can see the previous time that occured. ie big drop in the s&P

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

Thanks for the chart, Nice work

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Tony Caldero's blog
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

He states that this correction looks “exactly like the june july correction”

Like it did in July we correct into March (bad ? employment figure)

I believer Strause “jaywiz” says a big down move March 8th

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  bensjoyce

There is a slight difference to me – down volume is stronger and the financials looked like they topped out in October.

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

Tony Caldero's blog
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

He states that this correction looks “exactly like the june july correction”

Like it did in July we correct into March (bad ? employment figure)

I believer Strause “jaywiz” says a big down move March 8th

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

There is a slight difference to me – down volume is stronger and the financials looked like they topped out in October.

dreadwin
14 years ago

GDX is basically saying “short me, I'm going down”. It has printed a candle pattern that I wish I had noticed before the close.

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

In addition the vix is forming a bearish wedge and you can see the previous time that occured. ie big drop in the s&P

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Thanks for the chart, Nice work

bensjoyce
bensjoyce
14 years ago

my educated guess is we gap lower on the open and then tag the MIDDLE Boll. Band tomorrow at 1082 or so, then rally hard to unchanged or so.

Thurs. unemployment claims. Last week was low (read stronger economy) BUT there was the snowstorm. I think people didn't get around to making the claims (have to drive into “town”) So the next week (we'll see tomorrow) the number will be extra high (read week economy). This may accentuate the “theoretical” gap lower tomorrow.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

What makes you think we will rally?

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

I hope you are right. Sounds like we need to be alert tomorrow.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Monica, FAZ up and Tza down. doesn't make sense.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Nothing makes sense! But those two usually go in opposite directions for whatever reason.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

You are killing me Earl!

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Monica,

I can assure you that TZA will not go down tomorrow. No way.

It can't go down 7 days in a row. Think of the odds (not mentioned here because I don't know what they are but it's got to be a smallish number)

Plus the futures are down as I type this.

And the Ultimate Oscillator thing never fails.

And I would never carry my smelly pile of TZA overnight if I didn't expect a bounce (may be over using this one)

Best I can do 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Much better again Earl. Thank you!

dreadwin
14 years ago

It can go down 7 days in a row. While unlikely, $RUT could touch the upper bollinger band with a 2% move. It is possible, albeit unlikely.

In early September, $RUT had a 9/10 day up streak. The only down day was a doji, and that's because it crashed into the upper BB.

I'm hanging on to my small short position, with the expectation that the markets go down into op. ex.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Dread, the $Rut broke above the 68% fib line (622). I hope that's it and it comes back down for a while.

dreadwin
14 years ago

I have to admit, I didn't think it would get this high. Not at all. But… that's what a wave 2 is supposed to do! Scare the crap out of bears and give hope to the bulls.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Well, it's working! At least on me 🙂

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

dreadwin,

I was trying to lift Monica's spirits 🙂

(I can't do anything for her portfolio)

Focus, focus, focus.

TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.
TZA is going up tomorrow.

I haven't tried chanting. It's worth a shot.

dreadwin
14 years ago

Ah 🙂 Got it. Should have noticed that something else was going on because the futures are up a bit since the close. TZA got massacred (again) right after close but has recovered a bit.

I put out an idea a few days ago and it is worth repeating. There is a chance, albeit a very very tiny one, that we have a November 2008 style opex. Big move down followed by crazy move up. All in the same day. We had something similar when we touched the 1040s a couple weeks ago.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

dreadwin,

I wasn't making up the futures being down.

I mean IB showed them down. Small red numbers.

They don't seem to use closing numbers for comparison — maybe 15 or so minutes after the close. Maybe.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

I think we need to go out and howl at the moon tonight.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

I can do that. I'll take my dog.

Walk around here without a dog, people think you're nuts.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

I am outside right now howling!

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

No Monica, TZA, EDZ and a few others are killing you. Earl is just torturing you. LOL!!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

ha ha!

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Did you do anything today? I bought a amzn put spread that anna recommended. Small amount.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Gcocks,

I added TZA at 9.42.

Didn't sell anything. Slow day.

dreadwin
14 years ago

Very soon now, maybe even tomorrow, Carl is going to call for a “reaction move” i.e. we're near the top of one of his big boxes/channels and need to retrace a bit. These moves are as large as 20 points.

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Dread, If you see that will you post to such?

dreadwin
14 years ago

I'll shoot you guys an email if some one else doesn't beat me to it.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

I Like Carl's style, but haven't followed him long enough to have seen him call a “reaction move”. Look forward to it.

dreadwin
14 years ago
Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

dreadwin,

I see what you mean. He did call the top on that one. He got a bigger drop than he called for, but I can forgive that 🙂

gcocks83
gcocks83
14 years ago

Apple did show some weakness today. I hope it carries over into tomorrow.

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