Friday was 10 trading days off the nominal high earlier ala the March 2000 double top. This time with the new high on Friday there were substantial divergences seen with the European markets which were no way near their previous highs 10 days earlier.
Friday was also a Fib 89 trading days from the November 16 low.
Yes Peter, I agree. Since we are so close to a double top at 1576.09 SPX from 2007 I have to think that we’ll gap up a little on Monday to hit it (give or take a few points below or above) and then sell off the rest of the day to close with a topping tail. Then I see a several week move down.
Odds are strong just on the technical point of view as well, because the longer the period between one prior top and the new double top the higher the chance that there will be a pullback. Then the move overbought the charts are when hit the longer the pullback should last.
Since we are very overbought on most all charts I give it 80%-90% chance that we’ll have an important top on Monday April 1st (naturally another “eleven” day… LOL), and pullback 2-4 weeks. Then back up into May 22nd to squeeze the bears that are in the mindset of “sell in May and go away” (they just need to learn the time to sell is late May, not early).
I haven’t seen any… but I haven’t been looking every day like I usually do. Been too busy with other stuff lately. I already knew I wasn’t going to short the market until late May so I’ve kinda been ignoring the day to day action. It’s just too boring to watch right now.
However, I’m still thinking the high will happen in early April with the most likely dates on the 1st or the 10th (just because those are ritual “eleven” dates). But regardless of which day it tops I still don’t plan to do much trading until late May. I might dip my toe in but probably not in the SPY like I usually do.
Friday was 10 trading days off the nominal high earlier ala the March 2000 double top. This time with the new high on Friday there were substantial divergences seen with the European markets which were no way near their previous highs 10 days earlier.
Friday was also a Fib 89 trading days from the November 16 low.
Nice post Red. A little nervous about May? ha
New post… http://reddragonleo.com/2013/03/31/will-a-pullback-happen-after-a-double-top-from-the-2007-high/#disqus_thread
ORACLE Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/03/oracle-weekend-update.html
EBAY Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/03/ebay-weekend-update_30.html
Yes Peter, I agree. Since we are so close to a double top at 1576.09 SPX from 2007 I have to think that we’ll gap up a little on Monday to hit it (give or take a few points below or above) and then sell off the rest of the day to close with a topping tail. Then I see a several week move down.
Odds are strong just on the technical point of view as well, because the longer the period between one prior top and the new double top the higher the chance that there will be a pullback. Then the move overbought the charts are when hit the longer the pullback should last.
Since we are very overbought on most all charts I give it 80%-90% chance that we’ll have an important top on Monday April 1st (naturally another “eleven” day… LOL), and pullback 2-4 weeks. Then back up into May 22nd to squeeze the bears that are in the mindset of “sell in May and go away” (they just need to learn the time to sell is late May, not early).
I’d say the high.for now, will be on Monday at 1580. Maybe you should inch into a short Red. And, go figure, it’s a year;y 11 day
SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/03/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_29.html
GOOGLE Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/03/google-chart-analysis_28.html
I haven’t seen any… but I haven’t been looking every day like I usually do. Been too busy with other stuff lately. I already knew I wasn’t going to short the market until late May so I’ve kinda been ignoring the day to day action. It’s just too boring to watch right now.
However, I’m still thinking the high will happen in early April with the most likely dates on the 1st or the 10th (just because those are ritual “eleven” dates). But regardless of which day it tops I still don’t plan to do much trading until late May. I might dip my toe in but probably not in the SPY like I usually do.