I might have given the wrong impression that I was directing my comment at your post, Red. Nothing like that. I wasn't making a critique of your posts at all.
It was just a general comment, not directed toward anyone in specific.
I was saying that we don't need to catch the exact top, but having some idea where it is expected, is useful. Love those levels you posted. That allows us to focus our attention on how the market behaves at those levels and take whatever positions we see fit. That's why I said to keep up the good work. Not expecting you to catch the exact top or bottom. lol
I'm only a bear on the economy… which is currently disconnected from the stock market. I'll trade bull or bear, as I'm only looking to make money from it.
As for the “blowoff top” comment… that's the first time I've used it. I was unaware that other bears used it to justify every move up.
Anyway, you are right, as no one can predict the exact high. Today could have been it, or one more push tomorrow? Hard to say exactly, but we are close. I'll have more thoughts on tonight's post around 9pm-10pm est.
Thanks for stopping by and commenting. Good or bad, all comments are welcome, as no one is right all the time either.
Interesting. Used to hear about bears calling every uptick a blowoff top. lol But I haven't read about blowoff top lately. It is also interesting that a few long time bears have discarded their EW and wishing that they had never read their EW book. LOL
Not sure if anyone can pick the exact top or not. But I am hoping that the topping process continues to yield some lead time, as per historical pattern. Declines that take the shape of falling off a knife edge tend to be sharp but shallow and short lived. The declines that result from a topping process are the killer bear market.
So far, not seeing any topping process yet. A few flashing yellow light. We shall see.
PS. Thanks for sharing. Keep up the good work, Red.
My forecast has us turning back up on 18th or 19th. However, it could be off a few days as the current turn point down was the 9th and 10th. Of course today is the 11th now as I write this, and the futures are up big. It seems to be off a day or so?
So, as I posted above, I think today will be a “blow off” top in front of the economic news coming out on Thursday and Friday. If there was ever a day to push the market to new highs, then today is that day.
Just a side note, the forecast I follow has the Dow at 3000 to 4000 by 2011 or 2012. Yeah… that's some scary stuff my friend! Let's hope it fails, as the world won't be a great place to live if it comes too.
Read the heatmaps….red mean bearish, deeper red means deeper bearish. Blue mean bullish…. Tan means indeterminate, not many charts broke out or even bulls and bears, or both.
Although that chart is a little bit too confusing for me to understand. As long you can read it is all that matters. I'm glad to see someone else that thinks we are about to go down… not up like a lot of people are forecasting.
Chart of Chart Midweek Update This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
Volatility remains high. The number of stocks ready to breakout is a relatively large number.
I don't think we will make to 11k yet JoeMarc. Wednesday should be up as it's a holiday and that means light volume. But, Thursday and Friday should bring in some selling.
Maybe after opx next week, the market could make another run for 11k? But, I don't see it right now.
But, it's hard to take the emotion out the trade. I knew we would rally up some… but not this high. I'm expecting tomorrow to be up too, as it's a holiday and that means light volume. So, it should float up like a balloon full of hot gas.. waiting for the news on Thursday and Friday to pop it.
hey RDL, I was going to ask where you get MTS from, but keep posting and I will make this my stop for the Step.
I might have given the wrong impression that I was directing my comment at your post, Red. Nothing like that. I wasn't making a critique of your posts at all.
It was just a general comment, not directed toward anyone in specific.
I was saying that we don't need to catch the exact top, but having some idea where it is expected, is useful. Love those levels you posted. That allows us to focus our attention on how the market behaves at those levels and take whatever positions we see fit. That's why I said to keep up the good work. Not expecting you to catch the exact top or bottom. lol
I'm only a bear on the economy… which is currently disconnected from the stock market. I'll trade bull or bear, as I'm only looking to make money from it.
As for the “blowoff top” comment… that's the first time I've used it. I was unaware that other bears used it to justify every move up.
Anyway, you are right, as no one can predict the exact high. Today could have been it, or one more push tomorrow? Hard to say exactly, but we are close. I'll have more thoughts on tonight's post around 9pm-10pm est.
Thanks for stopping by and commenting. Good or bad, all comments are welcome, as no one is right all the time either.
Red
Interesting. Used to hear about bears calling every uptick a blowoff top. lol But I haven't read about blowoff top lately. It is also interesting that a few long time bears have discarded their EW and wishing that they had never read their EW book. LOL
Not sure if anyone can pick the exact top or not. But I am hoping that the topping process continues to yield some lead time, as per historical pattern. Declines that take the shape of falling off a knife edge tend to be sharp but shallow and short lived. The declines that result from a topping process are the killer bear market.
So far, not seeing any topping process yet. A few flashing yellow light. We shall see.
PS. Thanks for sharing. Keep up the good work, Red.
My forecast has us turning back up on 18th or 19th. However, it could be off a few days as the current turn point down was the 9th and 10th. Of course today is the 11th now as I write this, and the futures are up big. It seems to be off a day or so?
So, as I posted above, I think today will be a “blow off” top in front of the economic news coming out on Thursday and Friday. If there was ever a day to push the market to new highs, then today is that day.
Just a side note, the forecast I follow has the Dow at 3000 to 4000 by 2011 or 2012. Yeah… that's some scary stuff my friend! Let's hope it fails, as the world won't be a great place to live if it comes too.
Red
Read the heatmaps….red mean bearish, deeper red means deeper bearish. Blue mean bullish….
Tan means indeterminate, not many charts broke out or even bulls and bears, or both.
Thanks for the update Steveo…
Although that chart is a little bit too confusing for me to understand. As long you can read it is all that matters. I'm glad to see someone else that thinks we are about to go down… not up like a lot of people are forecasting.
Red
Chart of Chart Midweek Update
This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
Volatility remains high. The number of stocks ready to breakout is a relatively large number.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o…
I don't think we will make to 11k yet JoeMarc. Wednesday should be up as it's a holiday and that means light volume. But, Thursday and Friday should bring in some selling.
Maybe after opx next week, the market could make another run for 11k? But, I don't see it right now.
Red
I agree Jay…
But, it's hard to take the emotion out the trade. I knew we would rally up some… but not this high. I'm expecting tomorrow to be up too, as it's a holiday and that means light volume. So, it should float up like a balloon full of hot gas.. waiting for the news on Thursday and Friday to pop it.