I'm going to post this over at HOB too, but I just listened to an interview that is very interesting…
So, just in case any of you were thinking about going short tomorrow, think again…
According to Larry Presvento, the day after Thanksgiving has the highest percentage chance of closing higher. It is the “Single Most Positive Day in the History of the Stock Market”, with the highest number of days closing UP that day.
74% of time the day after… which is this Friday, is UP! Do you really want to go short now?
This is exactly what I have been saying – mkt is not going to crash before shopping season / Christmas … if people don't spend – we will see a lot more retailer go under under year and that all spirals down to more job losses …. and even lesser spending – its a downward spiral and you can bet that the mkt will not be allowed to crash – 10-15% before next year …
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
I am not saying black swan comes this week. They (and their cruise missile) are impossible to predict.
July 4th zone was a big down. The big boys have their minions playing this market 24/7 with most the moves coming at night so that people get whipsawed or miss the moves. So I suspect holiday times even more than a normal week as a time to make a move.
Just saying Red….
But also agree…there will be plenty of time to short after a confirmed downtrend is started….unless government action somehow makes that impossible. That is fully possible, Obama will listen to anything his old school corruption cronies tell him.
agree about next week, everything points in that direction.
last year we were coming off of the 11/21 low, for one thing – a ganniversary hit. for another, 11/20 is a 42 day astro/spiral-calendar cycle form the 1/1/10 lunar eclipse.
if we are going to have a spike finish to the great upwave from 3/6, the timing is ideal for the next three weeks.
we, we'll see what ms. market thinks of these plans.
I'm going to post this over at HOB too, but I just listened to an interview that is very interesting…
So, just in case any of you were thinking about going short tomorrow, think again…
According to Larry Presvento, the day after Thanksgiving has the highest percentage chance of closing higher. It is the “Single Most Positive Day in the History of the Stock Market”, with the highest number of days closing UP that day.
74% of time the day after… which is this Friday, is UP! Do you really want to go short now?
To listen to the audio interview by click here…
http://www.tfnn.com/sti/rss.xml
Find the “Larry Pesavento 11-23-09” link. Then click on the “redirect.mp3” just below it, and it will play.
The part where he talks about it, is toward the end of the interview.
Red
Hi Red,
Don't you think the “rally to 1120 this week” and “Market never goes down the day before and after Thanksgiving” trade is too crowded now?
Thank you very much. I was beginning to think I was talking to myself.
Great one Red … 🙂
This is exactly what I have been saying – mkt is not going to crash before shopping season / Christmas … if people don't spend – we will see a lot more retailer go under under year and that all spirals down to more job losses …. and even lesser spending – its a downward spiral and you can bet that the mkt will not be allowed to crash – 10-15% before next year …
It matches your Indian costume… that's how! Where's your Tee Pee?
hahah how did you know I had a hammock like that 🙂
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Cash is a position.
Red
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Cash is a position.
Red
I am not saying black swan comes this week. They (and their cruise missile) are impossible to predict.
July 4th zone was a big down. The big boys have their minions playing this market 24/7 with most the moves coming at night so that people get whipsawed or miss the moves. So I suspect holiday times even more than a normal week as a time to make a move.
Just saying Red….
But also agree…there will be plenty of time to short after a confirmed downtrend is started….unless government action somehow makes that impossible. That is fully possible, Obama will listen to anything his old school corruption cronies tell him.
agree about next week, everything points in that direction.
last year we were coming off of the 11/21 low, for one thing – a
ganniversary hit. for another, 11/20 is a 42 day astro/spiral-calendar cycle
form the 1/1/10 lunar eclipse.
if we are going to have a spike finish to the great upwave from 3/6, the
timing is ideal for the next three weeks.
we, we'll see what ms. market thinks of these plans.
;)-