Monday, June 24, 2024

Weekend Update…

Wow...  What a wild day on Friday!

Rollercoaster_dragon_khan_universal_port_aventura_spain

First we gap up huge on the low jobs number, only to finally hit the master level of resistance that I'll been talking about for weeks now... 1119.13 (SPX)/112.38 (SPY).  Then, we fall hard as the dollar gets a huge squeeze.  Back up again to about the 20ma intraday level, then down one more time to put in a double bottom, and finally back up to about the 50% fib. intraday level to close out the day.  Are we done now?  Are the Bulls finally happy?  I think so!

Monday should be a "pause" day (basically flat), as the dollar (which controls the market) hit a resistance level, will probably sell off a little bit to form a "Bullish Flag Pattern".  That means that the market will head lower next week as I forecasted on last week's "Weekend Update" post.  This now looks like Scenario ONE is going to play out.  Here's the chart again, (from last week)...

The-Chart-Pattern-Trader-spy-60-minute-Scenario-ONE

Our first big move going down should take us to the gap fill area around 1070 spx.  I believe we will break the 1085 level sometime this week, so I wouldn't be buying on any hit of that level, thinking that it's a big support level.  Keep in mind that every time you hit a support or resistance level, it becomes weaker with every hit.  Looking back, I see the first hit on November 12th-13th, then again on 20th, and a third time on the 27th.

That last one bust through the level and dipped to 1083.74 intraday.  This will be the fourth hit of the 1085 spx level, and I believe it will break this time around.  I think we will hit the 1070 level, and then bounce back up to probably the 1085 level as a "back test".  From there I'm looking for more downside to about 1030-1040 area.  I still believe this will happen before option expiration.  (By the way, the "Option Pain" level is 102 SPY for December OPX)

Sidetrack...

There are a lot of great traders out there that many people don't even know about.  Most don't publish blogs, as they are too busy trading to add all the extra work and headaches you get when you decide to publish a blog.  I myself only started this blog to post my thoughts on the market and the economic, as I didn't want to make these "sometimes" long story's into posts or comments on other peoples' blog.

Although many people don't mind reading long posts, some people get annoyed with it... and rightfully so!  Some posters, including myself, will have a moment that they need to air out their frustrations in some long bitching, and complaining post that has nothing to do with where the market is going, and of very little help to other's reading the blog.

So, I decided I'd put up my own blog, and that way I could bitch and complain all I wanted too... about Goldman Sucks, the government, the 3 stooges (Obama, Geithner, Bernanke), or anything else I felt like "airing it out" about.  Well, that was my original reason for creating this blog.  But, it's seems that now that I have that freedom, I don't post too much about it... but instead I post about where the market is headed.  Isn't life funny sometimes?

Back on track...

In closing I am still short and will stay that way until OPX if needed.  I will close out some shorts once we hit the 1070 level, and reload on the bounce.  That's the plan for now, and it's of course subject to change.  One final thing, you and I... meaning everyone who reads this post, should go over to The Chart Pattern Trader and watch Ron Walker's latest video.  It's excellent in my opinion, and will definitely open your eye's a little if you think that this market is going higher next year.

Red

P.S.  If some of you were on this page between 8-8:30 pm Sunday night, you may have seen the blog change back to the default theme.  Sorry about that.  I updated the blog and it erased my pictures.  Stupid wordpress... Arrgggh!

Red
Author: Red

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jzzz
jzzz
14 years ago

Hi, Red,
Love your blog. Thanks for all the effort.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jzzz

Thanks Jzzz…

Just trying to fix some of the minor technical issues tonight, so please overlook any picture problems or errors while I play with it.

Red

jzzz
jzzz
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi, Red,
Have always been looking for your articles when I am not so sure whether the
positions I took will work for me or against me. Although I do not post
since I do not have much to contribute other than saying that I found that I
seem to be on your side more often than not.
Many thanks for sharing your great work.

Jzzz

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jzzz

If you have reading for awhile you'll notice that the forecast are pretty accurate (not perfect of course), but you will also notice that I too struggle to follow my own forecasts.

Many times the forecast was right, but I got out too early or in too early. Always something to cause me to not follow the forecasts. Usually it's my own emotions standing in my way. It's tough to trade for a living. You really have too learn how to deal with the emotions first.

Anyway, good luck and please continue to post… even if you have nothing to say about the market. You can always post some juicy dirt on some bozo in the government… LOL!

Red

Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago

Nice video link from Ron Walker's site

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Turbo Tim

Turbo Tim,

Be sure to watch that video, as it really gives you an idea where we are heading in the next year or so.

Red

Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago

Nice video link from Ron Walker's site

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Turbo Tim,

Be sure to watch that video, as it really gives you an idea where we are heading in the next year or so.

Red

jzzz
jzzz
14 years ago

Hi, Red,
Love your blog. Thanks for all the effort.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Thanks Jzzz…

Just trying to fix some of the minor technical issues tonight, so please overlook any picture problems or errors while I play with it.

Red

jzzz
jzzz
14 years ago

Hi, Red,
Have always been looking for your articles when I am not so sure whether the
positions I took will work for me or against me. Although I do not post
since I do not have much to contribute other than saying that I found that I
seem to be on your side more often than not.
Many thanks for sharing your great work.

Jzzz

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

If you have reading for awhile you'll notice that the forecast are pretty accurate (not perfect of course), but you will also notice that I too struggle to follow my own forecasts.

Many times the forecast was right, but I got out too early or in too early. Always something to cause me to not follow the forecasts. Usually it's my own emotions standing in my way. It's tough to trade for a living. You really have too learn how to deal with the emotions first.

Anyway, good luck and please continue to post… even if you have nothing to say about the market. You can always post some juicy dirt on some bozo in the government… LOL!

Red

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