We May Be Done With The Selling For Now?

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george-w-bush-whisper-in-obama-ear

The market looks like it completed 5 waves down in this larger wave 1 from 1150.45 to 1083.11 today.  I was looking for a wave 4 up and 5 down, as I posted on my weekend post, and I think we may have gotten it?  If Obama doesn't mention anything about Wall Street (as I suspect he doesn't have George W. telling him what to say... if so, look out! A crash is coming!  LOL!)... then the market will probably start a "week long"... larger wave 2 move that I'm expecting.

I think that elliottwave, fib's, ta's, and support and resistance levels... work really well when the market is in a trend.  I think we are now in a new trend... down of course!  That's why I think the forecast I put up last Sunday is tracking as well as it is.

During the last several months, when the market wasn't trending, but instead... stuck in a channel, forecasting was very tough.  I don't think I got half of the moves right back then?  Maybe it's just blind luck this time?  Either way, I'm happy that it's working this time.

So, if all continues as planned, then a slow grind back up to about 112.00 is expected over the next week or so.  Of course it will be choppy and great for day traders.  But, I like to trade trends, and I think the next one is up for a little while.

If you're playing options, then I wouldn't go straight long as the IV will kill your option price because the VIX is going to drop while the market goes up.  The only way to win is to do a spread or buy deep in the money calls.  It's still risky of course, but that's what trading is all about.

Red

17 COMMENTS

    • I use photoshop to make it work. Not all pictures of course, but yes this one I used photoshop. You didn't really think you could find a picture of bush talking to obama… did you? LOL!

  1. Wow… what great speak Obama made. I love how he's going to take $30 Billion Dollars that the banks paid back, and re-give it back to them… so they can give out more bonuses… errr, I mean give out more loans! Yeah… right!

  2. Just try and count all of the $$ he committed to spend tonight. The printing press will be going non-stop!

    • Yeah… but he's going to go on a budget next year when the economy recovers! Too Funny! The market is going to take a serious dump in late September, and continuing into 2011. We will take out the March 2009 low in 2011… mark my words.

      • I'm sitting on my long term shorts. Looking for small bounce here and then resumption of the trend down. There is nothing pretty about this economy right now. Except maybe those 2 million new jobs Obammy created or saved. HA!

        • Well, Goldman Sachs has 962 people that made over a Million Dollars last year. I guess they'll be building new houses and will put some of those 2 million people to work. What a country!

          You steal the money from the poor working man, and then fire him. Next, you take the money you stole and buy your own stock… which triples in price. At the high, you issue new shares to the people you stole the money from, and take that money and write yourself $14 Billion in bonuses… which you finally use to hire back the poor working man to build you a new mansion, rub your feet, wash your cars, perform sexual favors, etc…

  3. Market is already in a good bounce if you look at the SFPF ratio. Has nothing to do with suntan lotion. I like it so far, just created it tonight.

    Secondary Fear Ratio divided by Primary Fear
    This is a cool chart. It is linear based. And has more animals on it than you can shake a stick at.

    Secondary Fear

    Divided By

    Primary Fear

    The formula is shown embedded in the chart in the black rectangle

    Maybe I should have done the ratio the other way….but I like making money when the chart is going down, and I have so many darn critter pasted on here, its too late to change. 🙂

    Comments appreciated. Better yet, post your own ratio charts if you have the wherewithal,or unlimited time, yeah right…..

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/seconda

  4. Wow… what great speak Obama made. I love how he's going to take $30 Billion Dollars that the banks paid back, and re-give it back to them… so they can give out more bonuses… errr, I mean give out more loans! Yeah… right!

  5. Just try and count all of the $$ he committed to spend tonight. The printing press will be going non-stop!

  6. Yeah… but he's going to go on a budget next year when the economy recovers! Too Funny! The market is going to take a serious dump in late September, and continuing into 2011. We will take out the March 2009 low in 2011… mark my words.

  7. I'm sitting on my long term shorts. Looking for small bounce here and then resumption of the trend down. There is nothing pretty about this economy right now. Except maybe those 2 million new jobs Obammy created or saved. HA!

  8. Well, Goldman Sachs has 962 people that made over a Million Dollars last year. I guess they'll be building new houses and will put some of those 2 million people to work. What a country!

    You steal the money from the poor working man, and then fire him. Next, you take the money you stole and buy your own stock… which triples in price. At the high, you issue new shares to the people you stole the money from, and take that money and write yourself $14 Billion in bonuses… which you finally use to hire back the poor working man to build you a new mansion, rub your feet, wash your cars, perform sexual favors, etc…

  9. Market is already in a good bounce if you look at the SFPF ratio. Has nothing to do with suntan lotion. I like it so far, just created it tonight.

    Secondary Fear Ratio divided by Primary Fear
    This is a cool chart. It is linear based. And has more animals on it than you can shake a stick at.

    Secondary Fear

    Divided By

    Primary Fear

    The formula is shown embedded in the chart in the black rectangle

    Maybe I should have done the ratio the other way….but I like making money when the chart is going down, and I have so many darn critter pasted on here, its too late to change. 🙂

    Comments appreciated. Better yet, post your own ratio charts if you have the wherewithal,or unlimited time, yeah right…..

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/seconda

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