Another Volatile Day…

Gap UP, then Sell off hard… back up, down, up, and down!  Whew… what a day!  We did go lower intra-day to tag the 107.91 spy level, which should complete the 5 wave move down, of the larger wave 1 down.  It was possible that yesterday’s 1083 was the end, but it turned out to go lower today to 1079… which hit the lower channel perfectly.

Are we finished with the larger wave 1 now?  I’m not sure yet… but we’re close.  I could see another little push down tomorrow morning, and then a move back up to close around flat.  Then a move up all next week, just as forecasted on my weekend update.  I think that the support will hold this week around 1080, and the traders will calm down over the weekend and start buying again next week.

How high we go is unknown, but the ideal place would be 112.00 spy by the end of next week.  I did not go long on the SPY as I don’t trust the up move next week.  We could just go sideways next week, and either end the week flat or only up a couple of points.  It not worth the risk for only 1-2 points on the SPY.  So, I decided to go long on the USO, buying the 35 call for $1.60 today.  I’m looking for a move to around 38 by the end of next week.

So, for tomorrow… I don’t expect much more selling.  A flat day is my forecast.  Then a small retracement rally all next week.  It’s risky right now to go long on anything… but I think I’ll be fine with the oil trade.  I just wouldn’t touch the spy right now, as it’s in good support now which could break or bounce?  It’s safer to sit and wait for now.

Red

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