Saturday, April 13, 2024

Another Volatile Day…

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Gap UP, then Sell off hard... back up, down, up, and down!  Whew... what a day!  We did go lower intra-day to tag the 107.91 spy level, which should complete the 5 wave move down, of the larger wave 1 down.  It was possible that yesterday's 1083 was the end, but it turned out to go lower today to 1079... which hit the lower channel perfectly.

Are we finished with the larger wave 1 now?  I'm not sure yet... but we're close.  I could see another little push down tomorrow morning, and then a move back up to close around flat.  Then a move up all next week, just as forecasted on my weekend update.  I think that the support will hold this week around 1080, and the traders will calm down over the weekend and start buying again next week.

How high we go is unknown, but the ideal place would be 112.00 spy by the end of next week.  I did not go long on the SPY as I don't trust the up move next week.  We could just go sideways next week, and either end the week flat or only up a couple of points.  It not worth the risk for only 1-2 points on the SPY.  So, I decided to go long on the USO, buying the 35 call for $1.60 today.  I'm looking for a move to around 38 by the end of next week.

So, for tomorrow... I don't expect much more selling.  A flat day is my forecast.  Then a small retracement rally all next week.  It's risky right now to go long on anything... but I think I'll be fine with the oil trade.  I just wouldn't touch the spy right now, as it's in good support now which could break or bounce?  It's safer to sit and wait for now.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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steveo77
14 years ago

Good point….how many people could hold a position over this weekend?

One of my account is up 25% this year, other one, 2%. I may just flatten both of them and go hiking this weekend!!! Yeah!!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

I wouldn't be surprised if we rally to 112.00 spy by next Friday. I think the GDP numbers will start the rally today.

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago

Red

Whats your thoughts now about next wk? thought they would hold it up today – but – no deal

thx

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Scraoppy

This is probably a fake breakout (of the rising support line) to lure in more bears. It needs 2 days below the line to confirm the move. If so, then 104.00 spy is next level.

I still believe we will rally all next week, causing a short squeeze on the bears that went short at the end of the day. Many people seen that trend line break today (108.00) and jumped on short.

I think it's a fake move. I'm down a little on my USO calls as the closed at $1.41 today and I bought them at $1.60. But, the UUP (the dollar) tagged the 200dma today and should pull back for a few days.

That will rally the market and commodities. So, I can still see the USO going up to 38 by the end of next week, and the SPY could go back up to 111-112 area.

I'll know more on by my weekend post.

Red

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago

Red

Whats your thoughts now about next wk? thought they would hold it up today – but – no deal

thx

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

This is probably a fake breakout (of the rising support line) to lure in more bears. It needs 2 days below the line to confirm the move. If so, then 104.00 spy is next level.

I still believe we will rally all next week, causing a short squeeze on the bears that went short at the end of the day. Many people seen that trend line break today (108.00) and jumped on short.

I think it's a fake move. I'm down a little on my USO calls as the closed at $1.41 today and I bought them at $1.60. But, the UUP (the dollar) tagged the 200dma today and should pull back for a few days.

That will rally the market and commodities. So, I can still see the USO going up to 38 by the end of next week, and the SPY could go back up to 111-112 area.

I'll know more on by my weekend post.

Red

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