Archive for March, 2010
Reasons To Be Bullish…
Mar 17th
ZERO…
Reasons To Be Bearish…
Lies, Lies, and more Lies… (Too many to list).
I think this time period will go down in history as the most manipulated time period ever in the history of the stock market. I’ve been trading off and on since 1985. Of course I don’t trade for a living, but I’ve had about 4 different time periods in the last 20 years, that I traded actively in the market. Each time, I learned more about the market. In the last year or so, that I’ve recently been trading again, I’ve learned enough about technical analysis to profit nicely from trading, yet I haven’t “profited nicely”.
Why? because they don’t work anymore! The manipulation being done by Obama and his gang of thugs is unprecedented in any previous time period in history. You can’t tell me that the massive up move from February the 5th is normal. This market is so overbought that it makes absolutely NO logical sense, pattern, rhythm, or rhyme! No one in their right mind would go long in this insane market!
Of course going short is just a crazy too… You’ll end up tied down to a table with ropes pulling your arms and legs off, by some bull as he slowly tightens them with one turn at a time. Slow torture for the bears, and more crack cocaine for the bulls.
This is more insane then the “Dot Com” rally was! Seriously… at least back then there was some hope or promise of a possible future superstar company that could get you rich. Today… there’s just bad earnings, horrible future outlooks, unemployment numbers off the charts, our national debt 10 times higher, and so much funny money in the system that a gallon of milk might cost $10.00-$15.00 in the near future… when inflation finally takes hold.
Did I miss anything? Really… how can you be Bullish on the stock market, with the economy in the worst shape since the first Great Depression? Everyday I see this market inch higher, and I’m just shocked! How can it continue to go up? I swear I think the market would rally if some large city in America was destroyed by a nuke or something. The fracking media would find some way to spin it as positive! WTF? … I get it, all those dead people would reduce the unemployment number, so let’s rally some more!
Sheesh… just think how pissed I be if I had any short positions in the market right now! I don’t, as I’m sitting this B.S. out until the insanity is over. I think it might be only safe to play individual stocks, that aren’t as heavily manipulated, then to play the overall market right now.
I hope you guys that are day trading TNA and TZA are doing well. I don’t have the time to monitor the market all day, so I must swing trade. This time of year is really busy for me, and that why I haven’t had a chance to comment much. But, it looks like you guys (and gals) are doing just fine without me. Carry on the good work gang.
And keep you eye’s out for another large fake print. I do believe they will let their buddies know ahead of time before they tank the market. At this point, I don’t think I will take any short positions until I see a sign. This is truly a “once in a lifetime” event (I mean the TOTAL Manipulation of course), and standing it front of it is suicide. Eventually the money tree will die, and the market will then work on TA’s again.
I know that I’m not the only person that thinks this way, as many others that I follow, and subscribe too (who aren’t into conspiracies like I am), are now stating that “they never seen anything like it”! Yes, this will go down in history as the time period where the government “Was” the stock market.
Don’t forget that cash is a position… a safe position too! I’m too stubborn to go long, plus that would be suicide right now. I’m too scared to go short, as that would be slow torture again… which I’m tired of now. It’s better to just hibernate until something big happens.
Red
Manipulation By The Government…
Mar 16th
The light volume continues to allow the market to float higher as NO Big Institutions are doing any large selling. Why? Simple… they all owe a favor to Uncle Sam. Put simply, I believe that Obama, Bernanke, and Geithner are sending a message to the big boys… which is “Don’t Sell” until I tell you too.
Remember, the government and Goldman Sachs have a revolving door now. And since Goldman and all the other big banks and institutions stole the tax payers’ money, and used it to buy up their own stock… instead of getting it back out to the economy in the form of loans, they now have too listen to what Obama and the gang wants.
What do they want? Probably to pass that worthless piece of crap health care(less) bill (The actual bill). I don’t know for sure of course, but Obama has been pushing it down our throats for quite some time now. It’s his baby, and he’s not stopping until he screws every middle classed American.
I thought Bush was bad, but Obama is worst. It’s not just the health care bill, it’s everything… from this manipulation of the stock market to the outright lies on economic reports, and of the Billion’s of tax payer dollars that was given to the crooked banks. Sheesh… Bushs’ biggest lie was the ol’ “They got Weapons of Mass Destruction” speak. He was too dumb to speak about the economy.
Obama is the slickest crook since Nixon (well, I guess he wasn’t that slick after all). Of course Obama is really just a front man for the real people that run the country, behind the scenes. I think most all elections are already planned out who is going to win, and become the next president… just like the cities are already picked out for the future Olympic games.
Regardless of who is running the country, the manipulation in today’s market is absurd. So trying to forecast this market is just as absurd. I’ll repeat it again… just to hear myself say it! ”This market is EXTREMELY Overbought and should sell off some very soon (like last week)”. Will it? Of course not. However, it should (might… maybe… LOL) sell off after option expiration is over this Friday. But a BIG Sell Off might not happen? We’ll just have to wait and see…
Red
Weekend Update…
Mar 14th
I guess we are back to the “Shoulda’ Woulda’ Coulda’” forecasts for the market now. Yes, it should have already rolled over to the downside. And it would have done so if we had any real volume in the market. But, it also could still go higher? There… now I’ve covered it all! LOL!
As for next week… once again, it should roll over to the downside. Will it? Who knows? This market is so controlled it isn’t even fun anymore. Any selling is quickly bought up by computer bot programs, and as long as the big institutions won’t sell their shares, the little guys will never succeed in pushing this market back down.
It’s truly up to the big institutions, as the selling will only stick when they start selling. When? I don’t know, but we seem too be very close. Too many signs of this damn cracking are appearing now. Eventually one of those big boys will hit the panic button, and the rest will follow.
I heard somewhere that this last week ranked in the top 10 lightest volume weeks for the last 6-7 years. And it’s March! WTF? I’d expect it in the summer, or around a major holiday, but not during the month of March. Man… when this market manipulation finally fails to work anymore… look out below, as this pit might be bottomless!
One of the signs that the market is cracking is the fact that both oil and gold sold off Friday, while the dollar was getting hammered. Good ol’ Ben was out in force on Friday, the dollar got kicked in the groins again. The poor little dollar… you actually feel sorry for it. It’s the governments’ punching bag it seems…
Also notice that the market did not rise proportionally to the dollar being sold. The market actually ended down by a fraction. It should have been up 100 points or more on the Dow, with the dollar getting sold off so hard. It didn’t… which clearly indicates that this inverse relationship between the two is struggling badly. Eventually, it will cease to work, and the market will sell off with the dollar. When? Unknown… but these current observations are clearly pointing to a top in the market.
The VIX has also inched it way up, which is another indicator that we are nearing a top, or already at one. Volume is all we need in the market. Give me volume, and I’ll give you selling! It’s really that simple! The pit bulls (big institutions) are currently on their leash and sitting still as their master (the government thugs – Timmy, Benny and Obama) have told them to do so. And for now, they are listening. Soon they will get hungry, and break that leash. Then the fun starts!
One more thing… let’s also not forget that the Fed’s are cutting back on their Quantitative Easing, as Obama stated recently that they will be trying to reel back in the money they’ve put out into the system. Good Luck on that Mr. Dreamer! Goldman already moved that money into the Cayman Islands…
I’d post some charts, but what’s the point… the market is going to continue up, until they want to sell it. Charts, Astrology, Moon Cycles, etc… don’t affect a computer bot buying machine. All that is calculated based on real people… that have emotions. Machines don’t have emotions, so a lot of the traditional ways to predict the market are history.
Welcome to the machine…
Let’s hope that this isn’t what happens to the stock market and the economy in the next few years…
Red
Sorry gang… I got really busy today, and didn’t have time to do a Monday post. Doesn’t look like I missed anything anyway… I’ll get one up Tuesday. Meanwhile… make the market sell off, would you? LOL
Who Said Pigs Can’t Fly?
Mar 11th
I mentioned a few days ago that I expected the market to do one of two things… either rally up just shy of the double top at 115.14 spy, and then tank, or break above it to lure in retail traders to short at the double top. It looks like we have the second scenario, as the market went through the previous high of 115.14 spy.
Since it is just barely above it now, I do expect a little higher push to squeeze out those new shorts at 115.14 spy. I said previously that we could add .50 cents to 1.00 above the high, and that’s still in play. Think like the big institutions would. Why would they tank the market now, and let all the retail traders make money with them? They wouldn’t, as they want to take the retail traders’ money from them.
So how would you do that if you were a big institution? I’d push the market up to the next major resistance level, somewhere between 116.10 and 116.35… which would have all those retail traders who went short at 115.14, bailing out on their shorts with a loss. Many will even switch sides and go long… at which point they will sell it off hard.
So, unless some really bad and unexpected news comes out tomorrow, I hate to say it, but these pigs could fly for another day. It’s really a frustrating market, controlled a 100% by the government. I’m sure they have supercomputers scanning the internet blogs, and reading the bullish or bearish sentiment. They have the money to keep the market up, and all the inside information. I only expect it to get tougher over the years.
I don’t know what will be the reason to sell off the market, but it will probably come when you least expect it… like overnight. Don’t know how far it will go down either, but I’d expect that gap at 113 area to be the first stop. But, for tomorrow, I expect more of same… more pigs flying.
Red
No Friday Post. The Weekend Post should be up by late Sunday night.
For your entertainment, and to just mess with your head some more (as if this crazy market hasn’t already done that), here is cool trick…
If you take a look at the following picture, let me tell you …. it is not animated. Your eyes are making it move. To test this, stare at one spot for a couple seconds and everything will stop moving. Or look at the black center of each circle and it will stop moving. But move your eyes to the next black center and the previous will move after you take your eyes away from it Weird ?
Now go get drunk, and don’t worry about the stock market for a day or two… (or smoke some wacky weed if that’s your thing. Just enjoy life for a little while).
Grinding On Up…
Mar 10th
The market keeps on grinding it’s way higher, as all the bears are gone (or dead), and the bulls aren’t selling yet. When will they dump the market? When the last retail trader boards the bull train I guess? Could we go higher? Yes, of course we can. Wouldn’t it be poetic to top out at 116.66 spy, just like we bottomed at 666 spx. Games people play… you got to love the irony.
Here’s something that’s funny. Notice in the chart below that we actually bottomed out at 104.58 the same day the 20ma (blue line) crossed down over the 50ma (red line). Now we are about to see the 20ma cross back above the 50ma… which is considered bullish, just like the cross down was bearish. Yet, it seems to be too late when it crosses, as the down move was over by then. Will the up move met the same fate?
Of course I don’t know the answer, but it seems too me that all this light volume slow grind higher, is designed to wear everyone out. Let me tell you… it’s working! I’m worn out with all this crap. And, I’m tired of writing about doom and gloom too.
I’d write about something positive if I could find some, but all the news on the economy is still bad. Cisco is coming out with a router that’s supposed too be 12 times faster then standard routers. Now that’s exciting news! Maybe I should go long on the stock now? Yeah, and I’ll long on BIDU too! This market is so overbought that it looks like a 1,000 pound fat man. How long can this last? Not too much longer, as the damn is cracking.
Notice how the dollar was down today and so was gold. Why? Don’t they usually trade the opposite direction of each other? Yes, they do. But, gold is a safety play too. And when the people think that the market is safe now, and that they can make more money in stocks, they will sell gold and buy stocks… regardless of what the dollar is doing. Now that tells me that we are so close to a top, that it’s not even funny.
Add the large VIX buy on Monday, with the large sell block of Goldman on Tuesday, and today’s gold action… and you have many clues that the top is in, or just a hair away from it. Is it the final top? I doubt it, but it should be good for a nice 5-10% correction before moving higher. After that we could go up and tag the 50ma on the weekly chart. Summer time is slow in the market, and that’s when I’d expect a move up to that level… if it happens?
Ok, that all I can think of to say. I’d complain some more about Goldman or how the market is extremely manipulated, but it wouldn’t do any good. Plus, Goldman isn’t doing anything right now. It’s all the little retail traders that are pushing it up one dollar at a time. And since the bears are all hibernating (or dead), the only way the market is going to fall is if the institutional bulls decide to dump their longs. That’s really what we are waiting for now. We need to see the first one sell, and then the others will join in too.
Unfortunately, we need some more bad news… really bad news, to get the selling started. It would be easy to start a fight between all the big boys if we were in school. We could just start a rumor about each of the baddest boys, and tell each of them that the other one said it. They would all turn on each other, and the fighting would begin. I remember girl’s that used too do that all the time. They did it to make the boys jealous. Too funny it was, (and many year’s ago). If life were only that simple today…
Red
P.S. Just for you Bear’s out there…
