The Bulls And Bears Duke It Out Again…

1057
1983

Yesterday, the Bear "Knocked Out" the Bull cold, but today the Bear only squeaked by with a few point victory.

Tomorrow morning we get the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers at 8:30 am EST, before the bell.  What will they be?  Will the government continue to use their magic eraser to make the numbers look more positive to the market?

Or, will they actually release the "real" numbers and cause more selling in the market?  It's clear too me that they plan on taking it down to our fake print number of Dow 10,000... which will probably be about 1055 spx.  But, that doesn't mean it will go straight down.  There will be bounces along the way, as they'll need to squeeze out some of the shorts before the final sell off.

So where does the market bounce at?  Will it be at 115.00 spy, or the next support level of 113.00?  Maybe those levels will only produce intraday bounces, and the only major bounce will be at the 200 dma?  Most all traders know that any moving average that the market hasn't hit in a long time, will be good for a solid bounce.

Well, the 200 dma hasn't been hit in a very long time.  You can be sure that a bounce will occur there, and it should be a multi-day bounce.  Currently the 200 dma is at 1094.07, and rising every day.  It should be just under 1100 within the next week or so.

So, if the market doesn't sell off anymore tomorrow or Friday, then it's going down hard next week.  Two more days of wild swings like today, only to put in a candle bar of indecision at the close of each day, will be the makings of a beautiful bear flag pattern on the daily chart.

That could lead to one really nasty sell off on Monday, if it plays out that way?  You know how the government likes to mix in really positive news with the really negative news... confusing both bulls and bears.  That's why you could see a swing higher tomorrow, and then another swing lower... only to end the day looking like today did.

It could look exactly like January 25th (compared to today), the 26th, and the 27th (which would be like this coming Friday).  If it plays out like that, then Monday is going to be ugly!  I don't know if it will or not, but I'm staying short for now.

I've changed my mind about going long at 115.00, as I would just feel more comfortable staying short until will hit the 200 dma.  Then I might go long for a few days swing trade, and finally get back short again, looking for the final low around 1055 spx.

So for tomorrow... it's a wild card!  Being short I could get squeezed a little tomorrow, but I'm riding it out... as this ship is sinking, she just doesn't know it yet.  She could just drop another 200 point tomorrow?  There was a nice bear flag formed on the 10 minute charts today... meaning that it should sell off in the morning.  But, it could rally back up by the end of the day, as it's just a guessing game at this point...

Red

1057 COMMENTS

  1. ZeroHedge article worth reading…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cds-traders-ve

    Clearly, if Goldman is betting that the PIIGS countries will fall, which means they will profit from them falling… that means this fake print of DOW 10,000 is soon to be a reality…

    We all know by now that Goldman Sachs isn't in the business of losing bets. They make things happen, so they can profit from them. They've staged every bubble since at least 1929… staging a countries' demise is nothing new to them.

    Again, we are going to have some bounces along the way, but I'm not going long until the target is hit…

    • I don't know if the USSR was planned or not? Was Goldman short then? Probably not… Goldman knows that the news will bring the market down, and they plan to short it so they can profit from it.

      The key thing to focus on in the article is how many people will profit from the default. Therefore, they will make it happen. As for the USSR, I doubt if Goldman could figure out a way too profit from a county that didn't have very much free enterprise, because of Communism.

  2. No dead cat bounce on Wed. So here is my 2nd cry for wolves.

    Today observed negative development in the market for the bear case. Money is flowing back into the long ETFs and flowing out of the short ETFS. I would be dissappointed, but not surprised, that we bottom right around here and turn around to OP Ex top. IF we have a 90% upside day, that would seal the deal for upside. In thoery, given that the momentum break and trend change that have transpired, are decisive, it means more downside should be expected. But the market will do what it wants, including interrupting a decline with a double top.

    Ideally, we would have a few days of rally, and the rally fails, but the breadth improves at that leg down. Thus forming a double bottom at the breadth indicators and the market then resumes an upward race to OpEx peak.

    Afterall, we can't really expect the market makers to really pay out all those puts, do we? SPY at 120 OpEx would be sweet dreams for the market makers.

    • That what I thought too SC, but what if the market makers bought those puts this time? Or maybe they aren't in control, and can't stop the fall from happening. They might not be one of the “insiders”, and they might just have too pay out on opx. Just food for thought…

      • Market is seldom linear. It just gives the illusion of being linear. 11 trading sessions to OpEx. If OpEx is going to be a top, then bottom is imminent. I am over analyzing. It will unfold in due time.

  3. Current Daily SPY setup:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45833

    The last 30 minutes yesterday saved the SPY from the edge of the Huge Ledge. Closed above the twin containment pts. Should these twin containment pts. fail, then another quick 40 pt. flush will ensue.

    Notice very closely the relationship of the blue TL. It's the TL that SPY gapped below on the day of the LEH-Man Ritual. Bad news for the Bulls is the bears successfully backtested it yesterday co-relational to the successful backtest on 4.8.2010.

    • Man, I'd love to see it keep falling and not let the bulls out for a change. They squeezed the bears that way, not giving them any chance to get out. It's the bulls turn now…

      • Monica,

        I have too actually work today, go figure… So, I won't be around too much, so you're in charge. Hold down the fort while I'm gone, and keep the troops entertained.

        Ohhhh, and one more thing… keep the bull tied up, the bear is still hungry.

  4. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: I estimate today's day session range will be 1148-1168. I think a swing to 1270 will begin soon.

    1154.75–1173 actual yesterday (18.25 points)
    1158-1168.75 range last night (10.75 points)
    1148-1168 estimate for today (20 points)

    1160 currently, so estimate is -12 to +8 from here (somewhat bearish)

  5. If you know anybody that is currently long or thinking about initiating long positions, this may help them stave off disaster.

    The Ritual Sequence that gave us the 7.15.2008 Major Low, 11.4.2008 Major High, 1.19.2010 Major High, comes due early next week (5.11.2010)

    5.11 is also 11 TD below SPY CTL which gave us the 3.6.2009 Major Lows & 2.5.2010 Major Lows

    • That doesn't preclude a reversal to form a lower top, does it? I am too cynical to accept that it can be so easy as to form a linear up and then a linear down, eventhough anything is possible. lol

      • certainly anything is possible, probabilities give us direction

        I keep things simple & let the numbers steer my ship

        If you aren't comfortable doing anything now take a vacation till next Tuesday and a extremely high probability setup will await you

        • That trade was up around 8 pts. A trailing stop and a breakeven stop would have been deliciously kosher.

          • At this point Carl would probably agree with you. From what I can tell, he thought the 1148 area would hold.

            One wonders though how big the 1148 area is. /ES dropped to 1133.50 and no word that he sold. Perhaps he did & I just haven't gotten the word yet.

  6. At least we will have a weekend for the greece situation to get better… hopefully. Could be shorts will cover tomorrow since they will not want to hold over the weekend.. I surmise. If a bailout package comes through watch out.

  7. $VIX is currently coiling against the TL that held it during 11.2.2009 highs & 2.5.2010 highs

    • SPY 114.00 is where Bright Red containment is @

      Last containment pt. before the bears win the 60 min TF

    • I just covered half of my position and made back my losses for the entire year! Now I am playing with house money. Sundancer, you are unbelievable and I can't thank you enough. But, I will never play with so much money again!

  8. Couldn't hit the trigger fast enough when it got down to the lows but out of all my puts. Anyone get long?

  9. There are FEW Guarantees in the Market:

    One of them is SPECULATIVE CAPITAL ALWAYS gets harvested

    We got a long time till Tuesday!!!!

  10. These entities are never wrong…. Which is why they roll around in 100 ft. yachts

    I haven't 100% figured out the Ritual timing, but I'm getting damn close!

    I posted this 2 days ago

    A number of large entities are looking for a $VIX spike of 37 – 44.5
    In other words they think the “spike event” that I talked about a couple weeks ago is right at the door step

    I posted this on Friday 4.23.2010 @ the close
    Rescued Bull…

    large entity buying the $VIX into the close

    two days later the $VIX is up 39.59%

    Something to chew on…………

  11. I tried to Call Red about 8 times but he must be out of range, I think we see lower prices, and if the jobs numbers come out badly then we could really see some sellers pile on 🙂

  12. Carl at day’s end:

    1148-1168 estimate for today (20 points)
    1056–1165 actual today (109 points)
    Carl failed to anticipate the collapse of the market 🙂

    Trades: In /ES at 1148.75, out at 1129.50 (loss of 19.25 points)

    Grade: F (Could have lost a lot more, but for Carl, this was a big loss)

  13. Despite the carnage, several facts hold true. The long term bull structure is unaffected. The Feb low is not violated. And just about everything halted at the 200 day MA (a modified version). The overbought condition and extreme sentiment are now cleared.

    Right now, the most talked about theme at all investment offices is how people didn't get to load up on their favourite stocks during the crash. “WTF? a crash that lasted only 30 min? YU GA TA BE SHI TE ME!” “How did we do on our buy list? WTF? Fred! What do we pay you for anyway?!!”

    I won't jump the gun here. But the bull train is being fueld up.

  14. HOLY COW! What a day for me too miss out on! Damn it! I'm still short, but I would have closed my 116/108 spread when we hit 108, as I couldn't make anymore profit.

    Monica, I told you to keep the bull tied up… not kill him! ROFLMAO!

    Now what?

    • I will be acquiring short inventory all tomorrow

      I dumped my final inventory @ 1:45 CST today

        • Yep

          I posted this in the morning
          If you know anybody that is currently long or thinking about initiating long positions, this may help them stave off disaster.

          The Ritual Sequence that gave us the 7.15.2008 Major Low, 11.4.2008 Major High, 1.19.2010 Major High, comes due early next week (5.11.2010)

          5.11 is also 11 TD below SPY CTL which gave us the 3.6.2009 Major Lows & 2.5.2010 Major Lows

          • Yeah the operators threw a 105.00 SPY tick today

            I wasn't joking yesterday about the black monday picture LOL!!

          • Red, it looks like that gap is at around 1080, no? Did Anna get ahold of you? I tried to put a trade trigger in at 1055 but couldn't type fast enough so wound up covering most around the 1080 level. Can't complain though – this has been the best week of my life!

          • For some reason, I feel like 2 months isn't long enough to put in new highs after such a big move down? But I guess the exact timing of the top doesn't matter that much as long as we move up into the end of June expiration?

          • The VIX will be huge, so you have to do a spread. I'll have to do some research over the weekend, and I'll let you know. Just have your trigger finger ready…

    • Now what?

      Order your new yatch tonight? I will race your yatch in my fishingboat.

      It is good to see that Monica and you are made whole. It is a GREAT DAY!

      Sundancer rang the register in a mega way. Earl's TZA did well.

      I have no dog in the fight. So I will be going back to my McD shift tonight, on my bike.

  15. Yep

    I posted this in the morning
    If you know anybody that is currently long or thinking about initiating long positions, this may help them stave off disaster.

    The Ritual Sequence that gave us the 7.15.2008 Major Low, 11.4.2008 Major High, 1.19.2010 Major High, comes due early next week (5.11.2010)

    5.11 is also 11 TD below SPY CTL which gave us the 3.6.2009 Major Lows & 2.5.2010 Major Lows

  16. TZA opened up 2.3%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 28.4% at the high, and closed up 11.2%.

    An earlier gap up from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
    AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA fell, so TNA will be a Wait for tomorrow.
    AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, and TZA was up, so TZA will be a Hold for tomorrow. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $7.01, so this trade is now up 26.5%.

    Volume for TZA today was highest ever — about 4 times the average.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 10.4% with TZA up 11.2%.

    TZA has been up, then down, for 7 days now. Chop, but drifting up. Good for TZA.

    The low for TZA was from seven days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.23, 17.5% higher. Good for TZA.

    Yesterday, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 55.9 to 55.09 – a small drop that mismatched the 4.3% gain in TZA. Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 55.09 to 47.3 – a fair sized drop that mismatches the 11.2% gain in TZA. A reading over 50 moving to a reading under 50 is bad, and this is a big divergence. Bad for TZA.

    MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily, and up a lot today. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): White candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Good for TZA for the time being.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s red candle closed far and away below the lower Bollinger band with a huge tail. This could be the beginning of a bounce in $RUT, Bad for TZA. MACD has rolled over (down) and falling. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The red candle today was far and away below the bottom Bollinger band. Happens all the time lately, but it’s really supposed to be quite rare. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, for a day or two.

    Down volume on the NYSE today was 22 times the up volume. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that. Bad for TZA tomorrow or the next day.

    TZA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – Good for TZA.

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $ 1,736 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
    $ 1,649 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
    $ 874 million flowing into the market today.
    Bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks bad for TZA for tomorrow.

    • That's tomorrow's target then… And I thought they might rally a little first. If it goes down there tomorrow, then many people will go long into Monday and get killed.

      • you wouldn't believe how many people lost everything today (house, car, boat,)

        Futures are a dangerous game……..

        • Yeah… I know! I lost a bunch back in February when I went short around 1060-1070, only to watch a big reversal happen at 1044.50… I won't make that mistake again.

        • Stupidly i took a SMALL put position near the close (when we were down 280) so I think I will get hurt tomorrow but I will add to my position when we get to the 1140s. I am just very afraid that the government will step in to prevent a fall but I guess it is the government that is causing the fall.

      • they threw a 114.80 tick today during the 14:48 candle so in the 114's will be the ideal area to acquire some inventory

        • Perfect… get out at 115.00 and go long at 114.80… It will be fast and furious so I won't be doing limit orders… that's for sure.

          If we hit 109.65 tomorrow, then 115.00 should be hit Monday, and then turn-around Tuesday will be up. Is that what you are thinking? Or, do you think Tuesday will be the low?

          • no I think they'll push the SPY up in the morning into the 114's

            I seen ticks for the XLF @ 15.58 & it closed @ 15.25

            SPY currently has 3 consecutive gap downs, so don't be surprised if there is a gap up

          • Ok, I confusing myself. I meant to say 105.00 and 104.80, as I'm so used too the market being in the 110.00-120.00, that's it's hard to not punch in that 1 in the middle, instead of a 0… LOL

          • No Red – you had it right – possible gap up to around SPY 114 and then next week at 105. Buy inventory (puts) in the 114 area.

          • Yeah… I'm so pissed off right now that I missed out on my chance to get out at 108… Damn it man! Work sucks! And we have been so dead for work lately, and the one day I have too work was today. Man that sucks.

            I had 116/108 put spread, so I would have sold at 108, as that was my short leg, and you can't make any more money once it goes past it. So, you sell at that point.

            Well, at least I'm still up big, but it could have been bigger. If it gaps up tomorrow, I'll just wait it out until 114.80 is hit. If it drops first, and then rallies, then I'll get out on the drop, and re-enter on the high.

          • no matter what, you will make money so don't be too hard on yourself. I am starting to think that things happen for a reason and I know you will be OK.

          • Thats funny Red. Maybe the fat fingered individual did when he placed the order. LOL Have a good night. I'm still long unfortunately. I'm sticking with my plan. for now

  17. XLF has a gap @ 13.95 from 2.12.2010 that is going to get filled

    Yes 212 the boiling pt.

    666/212 = Pi

    It's all one big ritual

    the operators gave everybody ample notice…..
    from last week

    oh the operators make me laugh
    yesterday they closed the S&P @ 1,212

    today QQQQ -2.12%

    yep the boiling pt. is getting near……..

    • This is too much fun… I wish I would have paid more attention to you back in February, as I might have been getting rich now, instead of playing catch up. I've learned the hard way, that's for sure…

    • A trader friend of mine called me and told me that they are declaring today as a trade error (I already new this) and are canceling 60% of the trades that took place when the market was way down, Do you guys think this could be true?

      • 60% above/below market price

        some fools entered market orders and got their clock cleaned

        a trade went through @ 100,000.00 for AAPL today

        • Ok – you don't know how many people think this is a trade error. They will go long tomorrow to get clocked next week. It's a really evil plan by the operators.

  18. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA was a Wait for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal again for tomorrow.

    TZA was a Hold today, was up today, and is a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.99, up 26.2% since the buy.

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
    GLD (gold), SLV(silver)

    The list to avoid:
    IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT) , IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), USO(oil), UCO(2x Oil), ERX(3x energy), AAPL, AMZN, DRI, GOOG, DIA, SPY, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France), EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)

    The following are possible buys tomorrow: GS
    The following are possible sells tomorrow: QQQQ

    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: None

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