BLACK MONDAY IS FINALLY HERE…

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No Post For Friday Gang.  Go Enjoy The Weekend


It seems I missed out on all the fun, but at least I was short the market... and not long. I'd hate too have been long during the big drop down to 1065, many people were wiped out today.

Look out below, as that's a trader jumping from a tall building! I'm sure there were some suicides today, or will be tomorrow. This isn't over folks... so don't get caught long, as Monday is going to be BLACK MONDAY!

Yes, as the old saying goes... third times a charm! But this time they have told us where they plan to take it. The target is 105.00, and the date is Monday, or possibly Tuesday.

Sundancer was able to catch an after-hours print of 109.65 spy, which is probably the target for tomorrow. But, he also caught a 114.80 print too, which means that a gap up is likely, with the high being 114.80, and then selling off into the close with 109.65 being the low.

Of course I don't know if 109.65 will be hit after the 114.80 high or before it, but a gap up first... and then a sell off is more likely.

Next we have Monday... which will probably just drop all the way to 105.00, and rape everyone who goes long into the close Friday... expecting another bullish Monday. Well it ain't happening this time folks!

It's going to be a Black Monday, so get yourself positioned properly, as you will either get killed or profit like a mad man! Times like these can make you a ton of money, or wipe you out.

Once the 105.00 target is hit on Monday or Tuesday, ever bear on the planet will be awake and going short. The bulls will bailing out too, as it seems the ship is sinking.

Everyone will be calling "P3 is here", and will go short with everything they have... only to watch the market rise back up from the dead and rally without a single pullback, for weeks on end.

If you read this blog regularly, you know how many times I have said that this market is 100% controlled, and manipulated by the "powers that be". So you should know by now that this fake prints are given out to tell all their friends where they plan on taking the market.

Believe it,or not... but it's real. We have been given the road map for tomorrow and next week, as well as the final high in the market (DIA 118.16 - about DOW 11,816). The question is, do you listen to what they are telling you, or do you just call it "Fat Finger Mistakes"?

In case everyone has forgotten, I caught this fake print back in January, but when the sell off happened in February, I forgot all about the fake print. I didn't know if it was real at the time, or just an honest mistake?

I went short around 1060-1070, and got my ass handed too me when we tagged 1044.50, and reversed like a bat out of hell! That was a tough lesson for me, as I lost a lot of money. I won't make that mistake again.

If I'm able to time the entry and exit points over the next few days correctly, I'll recover all I lost and actually make some too.

I hope everyone reading this blog takes these fake prints seriously, as most... maybe not all, do come true. so lets go over the game plan for tomorrow one more time...

We are given 2 fake prints on the SPY. One is for 114.80, and the other is 109.65, and on the XLF we have fake prints at 15.58 (closing price is 15.25), and finally the IVR has a 43.16 target.

Tomorrow has higher odds of a gap up, and move up to the 114.80 area first, and then a sell off into the evening, down to the 109.65 area. But, there is no guarantee that both targets will be hit tomorrow.

We could go up and close at 114.80, and gap down on Monday and close at 109.65 area. Then sell off again on Tuesday to the 105.00 area, before we start the bull rally back up again.

The thing to focus on, is to get short around the 114.80 area... whenever it gets there. Then stay short until the 105.00 is hit next week.

At that point, you need to go long, and stay long for the next few months, as our final high is around DOW 11,816. I'm expecting the market to nearly go to sleep after this turbulence is over, and all the bears will go back into hibernation.

I will be around all day tomorrow (Friday), and Monday and Tuesday too. I've rescheduled my appointments, as I don't want to miss out on more of the fun again.

Best of trading to all of you...

Red

180 COMMENTS

  1. Great post red, I certainly hope you're right. Hopefully we can bank some good coin. Best of luck for tomorrow.

    • Me too my friend… me too! It's really funny now that every blog I follow and read is now completely lost on what to make of the charts. LOL! They only say that more selling is coming… DUH!

  2. Leo,

    Thanks for the site. I used to laugh when people would say “there's another shoot” towards the beginning of the rally and prints were popping upwards everywhere. I didnt believe it. Recently I started noticing the prints intraday and they kept getting hit… like the machines were talking to each other. Anyways, I ran across your post calling for 10,000 a few days ago. I went long the vix this morning. I got out at EOD… I feel lucky because the whole day scared the F out of me even when I made money. Thanks for your work…

    • I understand how you feel my friend… it took me by surprise too, as I was expecting another sideways to slightly down day. So, I had an appointment set up that I had to go do, and unfortunately, I was out of cell range and didn't have access to a computer.

      I wasn't able to get out at the bottom, but I'm still up big on my short position, so I'm OK. Glad to see you make some profit. More is coming…

      • I wont pretend I got out at the bottom either. But it was probably my best day of this rally from March(after getting my ass handed to me for most of the way up… so it was justified :). The crazy thing is that I was short the VXX for a quick scalp and the move went against me but luckily came to almost break even. Never again! I just feel awful for anyone out there who has been long term bearish but got caught long yesterday and probably got wiped out. If you prediction comes true it will probably really freak me out… ha. Good luck friend!

  3. cowabunga !!!

    Hey Red In light of this are you still seeing a bounce to new highs over this summer

    • Yes Crash,

      The Monthly charts still have room to go higher, I still believe we will hit DIA 118.16 (the ETF for the DOW) in mid-summer sometime. That's around DOW 11,816 and I'd estimate about 1270-1280 SPX.

  4. Not sure if I follow what you are saying here. You expect to see 114.80 (DOW 11,480) and then 105.00 (DOW 10,500)? Since the DOW is at 10,530 right now why didn't you sell your short position today?

    • No, those are SPY targets. I didn't expect such a quick 30 minute sell off, and I wasn't able to get to a computer yesterday to see what was going on. So, I missed out on selling at the bottom yesterday. I'm still short now though, so I just missed out on some “potential” profit. I'm still up big on my positions, I just could have been up huge.

  5. Hey, Red, I caught your comment about the market being controlled over on Cobra's site, and came over to check out your blog. Very nice! Yes, it's like a friggin' trip to the proctologist. We're up against the big boys and their vassals in the Fed, Fedgov, the press, and our own brokers.

    I'd like to offer an alternate reading of your data points with a slower time frame, because our masters are nothing if not patient. How about a target of 109.65 in this move (which may or may not include a small rally in the meantime), a rally to 114.8, and then the final blow to 105, followed by a bull market high of Dow 11,816?

    Yesterday was great, but I didn't get the most out of it like the Masters of the Universe do. I dumped my AAPL puts (of which I wish I had more) when the stock hit 240, and I'm still sitting on SDS at less than 33. I actually had my finger on the sell button when it hit 36, but I often sell before a trend fully develops, so I disciplined myself and hung back. Mistake! I hope I can get a decent price for it today. It was an impulse buy, got to find something more volatile for the next leg down. I think we pretty much have to have one in order to bring in the suckers, but I may be wrong.

    • It's hard to say about today, as we could see some panic selling from the retail investor in the morning, and then a bear squeeze taking it back up to 114.80 spy in the afternoon, or it could just gap open and rally higher first?

      Then sell off into the close, to the 109.65 spy target into the close. That seems too easy really though, as everyone will go short any rally up in the morning. Which leads me to believe it will swing wildly both ways today, whipping out both bulls and bears.

      • Predictably, I missed the action. I sold the SDS around 33 hoping to buy a couple of bucks lower.

        I did get nearly the Elite price on some AAPL options, though (20% over low of the day). Again, wish I'd bought more.

  6. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: I estimate today's day session range will be 1108-1138. It will probably take a couple of days to restore stability, but I believe that the next big move will be upward to new bull market highs.

    1056–1165 actual yesterday (109 points – ~7 times the usual range)
    1113.50-1135.50 range last night (22 points – ~2 times the usual range)
    1108-1138 estimate for today (30 points – ~2 times the usual range)

    1131 currently, so estimate is -23 to +7 from here (wildly bearish)

  7. The operators threw a de-lever tick @ 41.55 yesterday on the QQQQ's

    Either the IWM or the QQQQ has put their top in already

    If you remember back in 2007, the $RUT put it's terminal high in July
    2009 $NDX put it's terminal low in November

    The arb trade will be fully exploited for the final thrust

    • By the way, you got promoted to Moderator so you can edit your comments if you need too. I'd hate to see you make a mistake (drinking again… LOL), and post the wrong number. He He He

      • I bought a small call option when we were down at the open. I set my trade trigger to sell it at 114.79 but by mistake I typed in SPX instead of SPY so it executed immediately! Oh well – at least i made back the money I lost from the small put position yesterday! Not doing anything now until we get to 114.80.

    • So the intraday low of 41.55 QQQQ is different from the de-lever tick you got? Meaning that they will take it back down there again next week, correct?

      And when you say “put their top in already”, do you mean the top for right now, or for the year?

      • the POS is going all the way back to $18

        AAPL is the most highly Ritualistic Enterprise that we currently have

    • It would absolutely blow me away to see them tag that blue line around 1081 spx today, and rally back to the 114.80 spy print in the afternoon. Have you started acquiring shorts yet, or are you still waiting for 114.80 area today?

      • I wouldn't be expecting a rally back to 114.80 today

        I acquired about 70% of Max short inventory

  8. Today looks a bit like yesterday, only this time, Carl did not buy when his low estimate was reached.

    Good thing.

  9. these short gyrations are liquidating all oscillator day traders

    Once they are liquidated, we can move on to the next group

    • I'm not falling for it…. I'm still in cash, and waiting for the 114.80 area to be hit. Rally into the close probably. What an evil way to squeeze out all the shorts, and make the retail trader think everything is OK now. LOL.

      Then of course dump it hard on Monday, with some staged terrorist attack or something?

      • Retail is already long……….
        they are now going to get liquidated

        Remember this post 2 days ago
        there will be a reaction off the Suckers'R'US MA (200 DMA) which will be @ 1096 on Friday

        Almost a perfect 1 : 1
        1219.8 : 1158.15 = -5.32%
        1158.15 : 1096 = -5.36%

  10. Looks like both high and low targets have been met today (One point short on the high) which amazes. Wouldn't now be the time to start building short positions for next week?

    • We still have a fake print from last night in the after hours session that Sundancer caught. It's for 114.80, and I believe it will be hit today. That's where I'm going short again.

    • The retail trader is going to be tricked today into going long over the weekend. We could even close in positive territory today? What a perfect way to close out the week. Let everyone think it was just a “fat finger” mistake, and everything is OK now. LOL (they don't know it was Lloyd Blankfein's fat finger)

  11. I luv pain. I just bought back one of the biotech I sold. This one is for the next 10 years. Its biggest market is in China. So the west can burn, but this one will do well serving 1.1 billion chinese.

  12. I suspect that there is a lot of people that went short here at this double top today. That leads me to believe that they will get squeeze out by the EOD, as we rally to 114.80 spy.

    Makes perfect sense now, as I'd go short at that double top too… if I wasn't following the fake prints, and instead just using TA's.

    • I don't know what to suspect at this point but I will stay in cash unless we reach that level.

      • That's my thinking too Monica. We are in extremely light volume right now, and that means it's easy to push up. I'm still in cash, and waiting for the 114.80 print.

        You know there are tons of people that just went short today at that double top. Wouldn't you squeeze them out by rallying into the close, before you drop it on Monday? I would, if I were them.

  13. Keeping things simple is a essential pillar to maximizing trades & will prevent oneself from over trading

    All this dancing in the SPY 112's is because their is twin containment pts. (Yes, the same setup as their was in the 116's)

    The purple one held the SPY during the 2.5.2010 low.

    The TL that held SPY during the Jan. High was gapped below today, the morning upthrust successfully back tested it.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45871

      • If you want my opinion on the purpose of the SPY 114.80 tick is that it will be the first de-leverage pt coming out of the bottom around 105.0

        People will be shorting around the 114.80 area coming out of the bottom because the mind controlled fools see a Massive H&S

        the operators just don't throw random ticks, there is a purpose behind them, you have to find the correlation

        The SPY 109.65 tick was easy, because it was 1 of 2 $SPX gaps the operators left yesterday afternoon
        http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45842

  14. Here's a good example of how the operators don't throw random de-lever ticks
    AAPL
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45872

    Yesterday AAPL closed above the yellow TL, today the operator gapped AAPL below it and immediately back tested it
    Most of today AAPL has been dancing with it's twin TL, the white one
    Yesterday the operator threw a 199.25 de-leverage tick, it perfectly correlates with AAPL's CTL

  15. It might fall here without us Monica? I don't know what to do at this point, so I sit in cash. It's just a feeling of course, I'd close it out positive to make it look like yesterday didn't happen.

    You don't want to panic the sheep over the weekend, you know. Maybe it will go down and close at that fake print early at 109.41? I feel like I'm going to miss the move… tough game to play.

    • Yes it is. That's why it might be better to sit it out. If we miss it we miss it. At least we made some money back. If we get higher I will short. If not, I will miss it.

      • Don't I know that to be the truth…

        The thing that makes me think we go higher, as the bull flag that formed, and the double bottom at 111.29 and 111.32, which also have bottoming tails. And the dollar has a bear flag. So, I wait…

  16. There is an overhead downward sloping trendline that this market is hugging, and staying right below it. If it can't break it, then it's going down into the close.

  17. Almost bewitching time… let's see if the PPT steps up and rallies this into the close, or just continues downward, not breaking the overhead sloping trendline. The 111.00 is good support, and could give it the push it needs? Or not?

  18. Well gang, at this point it doesn't look like they are going to break the overhead trendline. So, I'm sitting this one out, as the possibility of a gap up on Monday, and then a crash is still in the cards.

    The dollar is putting in a nice bear flag, and the market is putting in a bull flag. So who knows at this point? I'd rather sit in cash and wait for 105.00 to be hit, and go long, then to get in here and miss out on a possible better short entry on Monday.

  19. Carl at day’s end:

    1108-1138 estimate for today (30 points – ~2 times the usual range)
    1090.75–1132.75 actual today (42 points ~3 times the usual range)
    Carl missed the low by 17 points (typical daily range is ~15)

    Trades: No trades
    Grade: C (lost no money)

  20. The operators make me laugh

    $DJI -1.34% = 3.14 = Pi

    Pi Ritual coming MOONday
    5.10.2010 = 942 CD (314*3) from 10.11.2007

      • Looking at that chart you posted, I'd gap it down to get below those purple and yellow lines. Oh well, I'll still catch the ride back up…. hopefully. I'd rather miss and opportunity then get trapped on the wrong side.

        • The operators closed the $SPX below purple containment which held the $SPX during the 2.5.2010 low

          Monday & Tuesday will be great days for you to experience the Final Harvest

          Early in my career, I could never hold my positions long enough & left so much money on the table it made me sick

          Over time, my mind finally broke free & could finally see things crystal clear

          • I'm working on it, but it's not easy… that's for sure. So, what are you expecting for Monday's open? A gap down seems likely too me, since they closed it below the purple line.

            If I can't get in, and miss the sell off down to 105, it will just be a learning experience. I'm going to go long around 106, as it takes time for the market order to fill. So, if I place it while it's dropping, then I should get filled… hopefully.

            Any advice is welcome.

          • It's a process, often a painful one as terminal moves are the most profitable ones

            I really don't have a bias for Monday's open

            I'll post a chart this weekend showing the SPY 105.00 tick co-relational to a containment pt. on the weekly chart that I talked about a while back

            This past week you've put together some great trades & it'll help your confidence

          • Thanks, I'm learning… and I look forward to your charts and thoughts.

            Maybe one day I'll be as good a trader, as I am with creating cool graphic's and entertaining blog posts. LOL

          • All you need is a bullet proof mind………

            So many people let diversions completely mind F*ck them (Greece, GS, bla, bla, bla)

          • You're right on that, many do… myself included. I enjoy writing about it, but I need to separate it from my trading. The Technical's say we are going down, and all the bullshit that the media spins can't change the charts.

            I have to figure out your charting system one day. You created it yourself I'm assuming? For now, though… I'm not ready to go to that next level of learning. I need some successful trades under my belt first.

            I just want to be prepared for 2011, as that will be a “once in a lifetime” opportunity.

          • Sundancer / Leo – you guys have been on a roll …. I don't understand most of the stuff but am trying to learn …

            thanks for sharing sundancer … and thanks to you red for your great posts 🙂

            I can;t login to disqus from work so cannot post durin the day, but am reading !!

  21. A few observations:

    –The premium fell off my AAPL calls like an SOB at the EOD. Small fry selling? The stock went up in the last few minutes.
    –Big money seemed to be mostly buying SDS today, but there were very large trades both ways. The lower TL that it was following all day (very much like a bear flag) was violated at the EOD, though large last-minute volume was an uptick.
    –Huge market trading volume today, temporary bottom-like.
    –Dow is contained above 10,000. Us pigeons need reassurance in order to start throwing money at the market. OTOH, the foxes are asking for financial reform, so who knows?
    –Money flow has been flat on today's decline. Could either mean that the move is temporary, or the pigeons aren't scared enough yet.

    I made a few bucks on SDS but chickened out at the end, so I'll probably miss the crash. 10,241 seems pretty low for now, no? There will be opportunities in the fake bull market. If we get a real sell confirmation, I will short to beat the band.

    For now, the foxes get none of my cash except a few scraps for tiny options plays.

    • I chickened out too… I know it's going down, but it seems that every time I short it lately, they rally against me. I think I screwed up by not going short today, as a gap down Monday is likely.

      But, I did get out on the first dip down to 109.65, with a profit. So, I'm happy about that. Better to be on the sideways with cash, then in a position that's going against you.

  22. TZA opened up 2.5%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 12% at the high, and closed up 8.5%.

    An earlier gap up from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
    AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA fell, so TNA will be a Wait for tomorrow.
    AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, and TZA was up, so TZA will be a Hold for tomorrow. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $7.61, so this trade is now up 37.3%.

    Volume for TZA today was 85% of yesterday’s, which was the highest ever — about 4 times the average.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 28.6% with TZA up 8.5%.

    TZA has been up the last 4 days, each day better than the last. Good for TZA.

    The low for TZA was from eight days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.91, 30% higher. Good for TZA.

    Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 47.3 to 51.4 while TZA rose 8.5%. No divergence, but over 50 is good for TZA.

    MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily, and up a lot today, almost to zero. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Monster white candle closed far and away above the spot that I would normally consider to be far and above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is wildly & vertically rising. Good for TZA for the time being.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s red candle was entirely below the lower Bollinger band. MACD has rolled over (down) and falling hard. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The long red candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band and no where near it. Supposed to be quite rare, but have been commonplace of late. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal, but I don’t think anyone is going to believe that now. Good for TZA.

    Down volume on the NYSE today yesterday was 22 times the up volume. Only 5 times today. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that, but I think we are to the point where down days can be expected.

    TZA had a lower high, higher low and higher close – Good for TZA.

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $ 1,649 million flowing out of the market 2 days.
    $ 874 million flowing into the market yesterday.
    $ 198 million flowing out of the market today.
    Good for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks exciting for TZA for Monday. Wouldn’t surprise me if the market fell apart Monday.

  23. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA was a Wait for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal again for tomorrow.

    TZA was a Hold today, was up today, and is a Hold for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $7.60, up 37.2% since the buy.

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
    RWM(-1x $RUT), TWM(-2x $RUT), TZA(-3x $RUT), GLD (gold), SLV(silver)

    The list to avoid:
    IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT) , IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), USO(oil), UCO(2x Oil), ERX(3x energy), AAPL, AMZN, DRI, GOOG, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, EWG(Germany), EWU(England)

    The following are possible buys tomorrow:
    GS, EWQ(France), EWX(emerging mkts)

    There are no possible sells tomorrow.

    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: None

      • I'm in cash like you, Red, so the weekend will be easy.

        The $RUT, $RVX & $RUT:$RVX charts seem to be signally doomsday for Monday. Should be a fun week next week.

        • Well… that's good. I made a nice profit on my put spread, as I closed it out today at the fake print of 109.65 spy. But, as you know, I was working yesterday and missed out on getting out at the low.

          But, cash is a safe position, and making some profit and not making all the profit… is still better then losing your ass! Did you watch that video of that guy on youtube I posted earlier this morning?

          Man, that guy lost is all! You got to feel sorry for him. But, when they decide to kill all the bulls, they don't use rifle… they use grenades!

          Monday will be another day I guess… Let's see if they give us a chance to get short, before they take it down to 105.00 spy again.

          • Well, it seemed weird he was on a video, and was rather undressed. Felt awkward watching it. After a while (several hours — I'm slow) I realized he was trying to say he lost his shirt.

            I hope the whole thing was meant to be funny, and not his real situation.

    • I like it Dreadwin, as you may already know, Sundancer also caught a fake print of DIA 118.16 (about DOW 11,816) about a week or so ago. That will be the final high that you have in your chart.

      So yes, after this shake out is finished next week, we are going back up…

        • Yeah… it's brutal all right, that's for sure. But, when I look at the month charts and the weekly charts, the moving averages haven't crossed back down over each other on either chart. That means we are still headed up, after this correction is done next week.

          • That bottom candle on the low in question looks really, really skinny to me. Might be a one-day “V” shaped bottom that everyone expects to get retested but it never does. Right now, everyone and their mother thinks this is a bearish triangle and we're going to break downwards. What if they're wrong?

    • NIce chart, Dreadwin.

      Long term charts are hard to love as I want to think day-to-day, but you make a good point about the possibility of quite a bit of upside on the way.

  24. Factoid – 10 worst advance/decline percentage days since 1965:

    10/09/79 3.4%
    10/16/87 5.5
    10/19/87 2.6
    10/26/87 6.0
    03/08/96 5.7
    10/27/97 5.3
    09/15/08 5.5
    09/17/08 5.9
    09/29/08 5.0
    05/06/10 4.5 (#3 in percentage rank)

    Most of these were in crashes and it would have been safe to short after those days. A couple were not: 3/8/96 and 10/27/97 had immediate recoveries and would have been burns.

  25. The SPY 105.00 de-lever tick is co-relational to a back test of a weekly containment pt.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45890

    The gold line will coincidentally be in the low 1050's next week.

    $SPX % setup
    1219.8 = 16.78%
    16.78/4.56 = -3.679% (1174.93)
    OR
    16.78/1.245= -13.47% (1055.5)

    For those that want to try and bottom tick it, the final harvest of speculative capital from the previous bull mkt. ended @ 1.18 mult.

    16.78/1.18 = 14.22% (1046.35)

      • You know he's a “bought and paid for” puppet for the powers that be. So he's probably telling everyone that so that none of the retail traders will be able to get in, as the market won't go that low.

        Then, a couple of months later, when we hit DOW 11,816… he will be telling then to buy now, as the market has proven too be so strong that it didn't need to go down to 9,000… therefore they need to get on the bandwagon before it goes higher again.

        He's a worthless POS…

        • I remember about 2-3 weeks ago, Jim Cramer mentioned Dow going to go straight from 11k to 12k non stop, so just jump in the ship. Now where are we now

      • I have inventory for a setup on the $SPX that is going to get dumped @ 965, I'm not planning on getting paid for that inventory for a while, but wouldn't mine getting paid sooner

        $DJI 9000 is 13.29% off it's friday close
        13.29% off $SPX friday close = 963.25

        $SPX 965 is 1 of 2 de-leverage pts. of the current bull mkt.
        The other one currently is in the low 700's.

        • What do you think of that chart of the Wilshire Index I posted last night? Wasn't that strange that the date in the top left hand corner is June 25th, 2010? Does that line up with the DOW 11,816 time line?

          • Yeah, that's real scary because the SPY's CTL will be in the 1260-1280 region around the Summer Solstice.

          • I thought so too… I used too hang out on other blogs, like Moles' “Evil Speculator”, and Tim Knight's “Slope of Hope” (before I started this blog)… so I know a lot of the people there. One of them posted that back in March (I can't remember who?), and one of the member of Anna's Option Black Board (OBB) posted it in the chatroom, where I hang out at everyday too.

            I copied it, and saved it… but I didn't think too much more about, until this sell off on Thursday reminded me of it. It's definitely one scary as hell chart. It makes you wonder if some terriorist attack is planned for that date, which would cause the huge sell off.

            Then the fact that the DIA print will line up with it around that time period, certainly makes you wonder… that's for sure.

            I wasn't in the market during 911, but there is a video on YouTube where Nelson Rockefeller is telling one of his friend about 911… before it happens. He was telling him that there would be a new war in the middle-east, and that the they would be searching in caves for terriorist that don't exist (and he was laughing about it all).

            The guy he told all this too, didn't like it, and they aren't friends anymore. He told his story in and audio interview, and it made its' way on too YouTube.

            I listed a site called “Project Camelot” in the “Red Pill Sites” catergory, which I have watched 25-30 hours of video and audio interviews of various people inside various organizations.

            One of them mentioned that they were planned in the next terriorist attack, and that it would most likely be a small suitcase nuke, set off in some large city in America. I hope they are wrong, as I would hate to see so many innocent people die.

            Anyway, that's enough scary talk for today… off to run some errands, and enjoy the beautiful day.

          • So you're expecting a large sell off and then a huge rally to new highs?? That would correlate with Turbo Tim etf post. From my chart analysis it looks about right. My timing was alittle off but I still feel we get one more high and that should be it.

          • lightning rarely strikes twice

            the operators gave a preview of the oncoming train wreck next week with the $VIX putting in new highs on Friday

    • Sundancer – pls can u explain what you mean by the delever tick … also, what these % are ?

      Thanks 🙂

      • de-lever tick are where the operators liquidate their inventory, in this case @ a minimum SPY 105.00

        % setup
        #1
        $SPX 3.6.2009 : 6.11.2009 = 43.41%
        $SPX 6.11.2009: 7.8.2009 = -9.09%
        43.41/9.09 = 4.77
        #2
        $SPX 7.8.2009 : 9.23.2009 = 24.25%
        $SPX 9.23.2009: 10.2.2009 = -5.57%
        24.25/5.57 = 4.35

        AVG. of 4.77 : 4.35 = 4.56
        #3
        $SPX 10.2.2009 : $SPX 10.21.2009 = 7.98%
        $SPX 10.21.2009: $SPX 11.2.2009 = -6.54%
        7.98/6.54 = 1.22
        #4
        $SPX 11.2.2009 : 1.19.2009 = 11.76%
        $SPX 1.19.2009 : 2.5.2010 = -9.21%
        11.76/9.21 = 1.27

        AVG of 1.22 : 1.27 = 1.245

  26. Hi Red, any thoughts on OIL, Im from Canada and OIL runs the TSX. We hit $75 last Friday so I believe its starting to be a great enry point. I know you mentioned SPY at 105, any idea what you believe OIL will do. Im thinking $72 with TSX support at 11500. Using P&F, If 11500 gets broken with good steam then will hit 10850.

    Thanks for your time and your blog!!!!
    Joesph
    Toronto Canada

    • I mainly follow the USO, which is currently at 36.31 area. I think it will find good support when it makes a triple bottom (daily chart) around 35.00-35.25 level. You can correlate that with around the 70-71 level for oil. Look for the triple bottom as support, and expect a few days bounce from it.

      I wouldn't trade it more then short term though, but you can probably get a bounce from it for at least a few days.

  27. Note the shooting star backtest of the PRS 133 channel (minutes before the Thursday Heist)

    I posted “Fractured Fractals” during that retest, and went short 3 futures. In retrospect, wish I had played it bigger. But I have also found in the past, when taking on inordinately large positions (say 10 to 20 futures) that the market goes out it's way to punish.

    Entire post with charts is found here
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/05/thursda

    It's hard to “trust” this market in any way. The bottom reversal happened in such proximity to the “limit down” market stopping rules, that it further reeks of manipulation

    http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/2010/05/i-lied-i-have-to-post-something-i.html

    Here is the cool part, the “Fractured Fractals” post, right before the debacle.

    Note the comment on the chart: “Backtest of the PRS 133 and breakout to the downside, accelerating fear”, 3 futures stop set right above the PRS lower channel, worked perfectly.

    Below is my first attempt at a “Movie”. This shows the Thursday crash in live action. The yellow line is the PRS 133 lower channel. Note the mini-backtest and then the real backtest. No audio on this one.

    The backtest of the PRS133 channel line is about halfway through the video….then the plunge.

    Testing Video — Below is HTML to Utube and at the bottom is the Utube link directly

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwvH4jraumc

      • Leo… I am a petroleum engineer by degree. Worked for Shell Oil designing offshore completions for them in the Gulf of Mexico and in Africa. What zstock posted above is TOTAL NONSENSE. While they are drilling a relief well near by to plug the leaking well they will try to stop or contain the leak with the box idea. Which btw I find very clever. The idea of nuking a well to stop it flowing makes no sense if one thinks about it.

  28. The Weekly view from Americanbulls

    TNA had a highly reliable SELL-IF signal, and now has a confirmed SELL.
    Two weekends ago, TNA was up 60% from it’s buy, and was rated a HOLD
    One weekend ago, TNA had fallen but was still up 43% from it’s buy, and was rated a possible sell.
    This weekend, TNA has fallen some more, and now is an official SELL, but it’s now up only 7.7%.
    The key action was the sell during this past week (not waiting for the week to end), as soon as it became clear that TNA would be falling below last weeks close. AmericanBulls uses the price at the close of last week, and claims to have sold while still up 43%. That’s not really reasonable, but it’s somewhere in the ballpark.

    TZA had a highly reliable BUY-IF signal, and now has a confirmed BUY. While TZA closed at $7.60 today, AmericanBulls considers the weekly buy price to be $5.92, the close last week. Same issue here as was with TNA – can’t wait for the weekend to take action of the weekly view.

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to own for this week:
    UUP(US Dollar)
    GLD (gold)
    RWM (-1x $RUT)
    TWM (-2x $RUT)
    TZA (-3x $RUT)
    SRS (-2x RE)
    DRV (-3x RE)
    ERY (-3x energy)
    SKF (-2x Financials)
    FAZ (-3x Financials)
    EPV (-2x Europe)
    SPXU (-3x $SPX)
    DXD (-2x DOW30)

    The weekly view is very Bearish.

    • If your 105 SPY target was already hit for real on Thursday, shouldn't the tape be set to rally up?

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