Weekend Update – The Great Depression Two (Video Special)

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Never Did I Want To See This Day, But...

As I sat down to write this weekend update, I knew it wouldn't be like all the rest.  In fact, I knew this update would be  a "life changing" post for many of the readers of this blog.  You see, I finally have enough pieces of the puzzle to see what is coming up next... and it scares the hell out of me!

I've decided to do a video explaining everything, as it's much simpler, and will get the message across better.  This is my first video post, and I don't have a script for it, so bare with me as I might jump around some.  Once you watch the video, I encourage you to pass it around to your friends, as it might help save them from the coming disaster too.  Just click on the image below and a new window will open with the video...

In the video, I quote some very intelligent people, that include investors, forecasters, and economists... to name a few.  The link to the website is here... It was posted by Stock_Tech, a commenter on Thursday's post.  (Many thanks for the link).  I'm going to copy the post, and highlight the one's that really stand out to me, and post them below...

Economic Crash Forecast for 2010

3/24/10

Secular Voices

Bob Chapman

First 6 months of 2010, Americans will continue to live in the 'unreality'...the period between July and October is when the financial fireworks will begin. The Fed will act unilaterally for its own survival irrespective of any political implications ...(source is from insider at FED meetings). In the last quarter of the year we could even see Martial law, which is more likely for the first 6 months of 2011. The FDIC will collapse in September 2010. Commercial real estate is set to implode in 2010. Wall Street believes there is a 100% chance of crash in bond market, especially municipals sometime during 2010. The dollar will be devalued by the end of 2010.

Gerald Celente

Terrorist attacks and the "Crash of 2010". 40% devaluation at first = the greatest depression, worse than the Great Depression.

Igor Panarin

In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow FAPSI analysts, Panarin forecast the probable disintegration of the USA into six parts in 2010 (at the end of June – start of July 2010, as he specified on 10 December 2008)

Neithercorps

Have projected that the third and final stage of the economic collapse will begin sometime in 2010. Barring some kind of financial miracle, or the complete dissolution of the Federal Reserve, a snowballing implosion should become visible by the end of this year. The behavior of the Fed, along with that of the IMF seems to suggest that they are preparing for a focused collapse, peaking within weeks or months instead of years, and the most certain fall of the dollar.

Webbots

July and onward things get very strange. Revolution. Dollar dead by November 2010.

LEAP 20/20

2010 Outlook from a group of 25 European Economists with a 90% accuracy rating- We anticipate a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years. There is a perfect (economic) storm coming within the global financial markets and inevitable pressure on interest rates in the U.S. The injection of zero-cost money into the Western banking system has failed to restart the economy. Despite zero-cost money, the system has stalled. It is slowly rolling over into the next big down wave, which in Elliott Wave terminology will be Super Cycle Wave Three, or in common language, "THE BIG ONE, WHERE WE ALL GO OVER THE FALLS TOGETHER."

Joseph Meyer

Forecasts on the economy. He sees the real estate market continuing to decline, and advised people to invest in precious metals and commodities, as well as keeping cash at home in a safe place in case of bank closures. The stock market, after peaking in March or April (around 10,850), will fall all the way down to somewhere between 2450 and 4125 during the next leg down.

Harry Dent (investor)

A very likely second crash by late 2010. The coming depression (starts around the summer of 2010). Dent sees the stock market--currently benefiting from upward momentum and peppier economic activity--headed for a very brief and pleasant run that could lift the Dow to the 10,700-11,500 range from its current level of about 10.090. But then, he sees the market running into a stone wall, which will be followed by a nasty stock market decline (starting in early March to late April) that could drive down the Dow later this year to 3,000-5,000, with his best guess about 3,800.

Richard Russell (Market Expert)

(from 2/3/10) says the bear market rally is in the process of breaking up and panic is on the way. He sees a full correction of the entire rise from the 2002 low of 7,286 to the bull market high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. The halfway level of retracement was 10,725. The total retracement was to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009. He now sees the Dow falling to 7,286 and if that level does not hold, “I see it sinking to its 1980-82 area low of Dow 1,000.” The current action is the worst he has ever seen. (Bob Chapman says for Russell to make such a startling statement is unusual because he never cries wolf and is almost never wrong)

Niño Becerra (Professor of Economics)

Predicted in July 2007 that what was going to happen was that by mid 2010 there is going to be a crisis only comparable to the one in 1929. From October 2009 to May 2010 people will begin to see things are not working out the way the government thought. In May of 2010, the crisis starts with all its force and continues and strengthens throughout 2011. He accurately predicted the current recession and market crash to the month.

Lyndon Larouche

The crisis is accelerating and will become worse week by week until the whole system grinds into a collapse, likely sometime this year. And when it does, it will be the greatest collapse since the fall of the Roman Empire.

WALL STREET JOURNAL- (2/2010)

"You are witnessing a fundamental breakdown of the American dream, a systemic breakdown of our democracy and our capitalism, a breakdown driven by the blind insatiable greed of Wall Street: Dysfunctional government, insane markets, economy on the brink. Multiply that many times over and see a world in total disarray. Ignore it now, tomorrow will be too late."

Eric deCarbonnel

There is no precedence for the panic and chaos that will occur in 2010. The global food supply/demand picture has NEVER been so out of balance. The 2010 food crisis will rearrange economic, financial, and political order of the world, and those who aren’t prepared will suffer terrible losses…As the dollar loses most of its value, America's savings will be wiped out. The US service economy will disintegrate as consumer spending in real terms (ie: gold or other stable currencies) drops like a rock, bringing unemployment to levels exceeding the great depression. Public health services/programs will be cut back, as individuals will have no savings/credit/income to pay for medical care. Value of most investments will be wiped out.

The US debt markets will freeze again, this time permanently. There will be no buyers except at the most drastic of fire sale prices, and inflation will wipe away value before credit markets have any chance at recovery. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. Since global derivatives markets operate on the assumption of the continued stable value of the dollar and short term US debt, using derivatives to bet against the dollar is NOT a good idea. The panic in 2010 will see the majority of derivatives end up worthless. The dollar's collapse will rob US consumers of all purchasing power, and any investment depend on US consumption will lose most of its value.

Robin Landry (Market Expert)

I believe we are headed to new market highs between 10780-11241 over the next few months. The most likely time frame for the top is the April-May area. Remember the evidence IMHO still says we are in a bear market rally with a major decline to follow once this rally ends.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during 2010.

Robert Prechter

Founder of Elliott Wave International, implores retail investors stay away from the markets… for now. Prechter, who was bullish near the lows in March 2009, now says the stock market “is in a topping area", predicting another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below the 2009 low. His word to the wise, “be patient, don’t rush it” keep your money in cash and cash equivalents.

Richard Mogey

Current Research Director at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles- Because of a convergence of numerous cycles all at once, the stock market may go up for a little while, but will crash in 2010 and reach all-time lows late 2012. Mogey says that the 2008 crash was nothing compared to the coming crash. Gold may correct in 2009, but will go up in 2010 and peak in 2011. Silver will follow gold.

James Howard Kunstler (January 2010)

The economy as we’ve known it simply can’t go on, which James Howard Kunstler has been saying all along. The shenanigans with stimulus and bailouts will just compound the central problem with debt. There’s not much longer to go before the whole thing collapses and dies. Six Months to Live- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That’s the buzz I’ve gotten the first two weeks of 2010.

Peter Schiff (3/13/2010)

"In my opinion, the market is now perfectly positioned for a massive dollar sell-off. The fundamentals for the dollar in 2010 are so much worse than they were in 2008 that it is hard to imagine a reason for people to keep buying once a modicum of political and monetary stability can be restored in Europe. In fact, the euro has recently stabilized. My gut is that the dollar sell-off will be sharp and swift. Once the dollar decisively breaks below last year's lows, many of the traders who jumped ship in the recent rally will look to re-establish their positions.

This will accelerate the dollar's descent and refocus everyone's attention back on the financial train-wreck unfolding in the United States. Any doubts about the future of the U.S. dollar should be laid to rest by today's announcement that San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen has been nominated to be Vice Chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, and thereby a voter on the interest rate-setting, seven-member Open Markets Committee. Ms. Yellen has earned a reputation for being one of the biggest inflation doves among the Fed's top players." Schiff is famous for his accurate predictions of the economic events of 2008.

Lindsey Williams

Dollar devalued 30-50% by end of year. It will become very difficult for the average American to afford to buy even food. This was revealed to him through an Illuminati insider.

Unnamed Economist working for US Gov't (GLP)

What we have experienced the last two years is nothing to what we are going to experience this year. If you have a job now...you may not have it in three to six months. (by August 2010). Stock market will fall = great depression.  Foreign investors stop financing debt = collapse. 6.2 million are about to lose their unemployment.

Jimmy "Doomsday"

DOW will fall below 7,000 before mid summer 2010- Dollar will rise above 95 on the dollar index before mid summer 2010- Gold will bottom out below $800 before mid summer 2010- Silver will bottom out below $10 before mid summer 2010- CA debt implosion will start its major downturn by mid summer and hit crisis mode before Q4 2010- Dollar index will plunge below 65 between Q3 and Q4 2010. Commercial real estate will hit crisis mode in Q4 2010- Over 35 states will be bailed out by end of Q4 2010 by the US tax payer End of Q4 2010 gold will hit $1,600 and silver jump to $35 an oz.

George Ure

Markets up until mid-to-late-summer.  Then "all hell breaks lose" from then on through the rest of the year.

Prophetic Voices

Neville Johnson

As I thought and prayed about the past year I felt the Lord say to me that 2010 was a year of labor pains, with the contractions getting closer and closer together towards the end of the year.

Sadhu Sundar Selvaraj

Starvation and famine/financial problems will develop. Terrorist attacks. Banks close. Tsunami. 7 new diseases worse than swine flu.

Amos Scaggs

The ultra-rich will go broke. I don’t mean go bankrupt I mean go broke, no money. I saw ultra rich people working for food because they were broke. This will happen by mid-February 2011.

Andrey Rasshivaev

The world is going to face the total and complete economical and financial collapse in August-September of this new 2010 year.

Greg Evensen

Economic meltdown and possible martial law in the mid summer 2010.

Larry Randolph

... there is yet a seven-fold shaking of greater magnitude coming that will produce enormous and perhaps catastrophic disruptions on economic, political, geophysical, atmospheric, and spiritual levels.

Weather Bill

Huge earthquake on the west coast in early September 2010. This earthquake to come is going to start the swift downfall of America.

Harold Eatmon (1998)

I had a vision of the stock market soar and then crash. After the crash, many big business corporations and private parties bought up stocks because of the low cost to buy in. Then I saw the market begin to climb again in a short period of time. Then it crashed again bringing tremendous loss, ruin and devastation to all who bought in the first time. This is what I have labeled "Two Black Mondays" . The time period between the Two Black Mondays was very close together. I could not tell exactly how close. There are some tell tale signs indicating the season and the setting. I saw the season to be when *"the leaves fall to the ground"* then the first crash would occur."Like Joseph in Genesis, I believe America will have fat years of financial blessing. I also believe there are coming lean years of financial difficulty for America.  [Note: while this doesn't give an exact date, this prophecy was dead on accurate-the markets crashed -777 points on MONDAY 9/29/08, roughly 1 week into the FALL (leaves fall to the ground.) The markets then rebounded OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME (from April 2009 to October 2009 the markets rallied nearly 4000 points!) and everyone bought back in. According to this prophecy, the next huge crash will happen on a Monday. Eatmon even accurately predicted the coming 'fat years' and the now present 'lean years']

Robert Holmes

On October 21, 2008 the Lord said to me (of the global economic crisis): “It will be a dead cat bounce,” meaning it will go down fast, bounce back then fall again. In April 2009, after some growth had taken place, the Lord affirmed, “Don’t get too excited about the market news, it will crash again.” In September 2009, He commented on stock market prices (as measured by the Dow Jones), “It will be a W curve”. Though it will improve through to mid 2010, it will crash again under “the weight of debt”.

Deryn Johnstone (1/25/2010)

"We will experience a worldwide economic upheaval resulting in the collapse of our monetary system. This economic crash will come suddenly, sending shockwaves throughout the world. It will be the opening of the establishment of a new one-world monetary system under a new one-world government. When this worldwide economic disaster hits, it will be unlike anything we have ever experienced. The world will be thrown into a state of shock. Panic and fear will grip the hearts of the people everywhere. They will be confused, not knowing what to do or where to go. During this time, the people of God will be clearly distinguished from the world by God's supernatural provision in their lives. It will not be the absence of problems and adversity among God's people that will be a witness to the world, but in the midst of this financial crisis the world will see God's strong arm of provision for His people.

Robert L

What is going to happen this year? 1. The stock market in America will not only crash, it will no longer exist 2.  The President of the USA will foolishly bring sanctions on the nation of Israel 3. There will be a great earthquake that stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific 4. The greatest fear will be none of these things; it will be the lack of food men will fear most. The sad truth is that even after all these things have taken place in 2010, most will not repent and turn back to God, most will become even more corrupt as we speedily rush toward the end of time.

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Needless to say, what lies ahead of us spells DISASTER!  It's not going to be fun, even though all of you reading this post will have the chance too profit hugely from it.  But many lives will be ruined in the process.  There will be countless people go homeless, as they lose everything they have every worked for.

I encourage you all to reach out and spread this message to all that you know. I also ask that you help those that will be needing your help in the not so distant future.  If you position yourself correctly, you can become filthy rich from this coming crash. If not, then you will go broke like all the others who didn't listen.

Choose wisely...

Red

197 COMMENTS

  1. Red,

    Futures are strong this fine Sunday evening. Apparently last Thursday has been forgotten already.

    Nice scary post by the way 🙂

  2. I was reading someone advising us all to have a months hard cash in a safe place as the banks and cash machines might freeze up for a few weeks – preferably US$ not GB£.
    Looks like a rodeo coming up

      • Perhaps the inverse ETFs just don't go up as they should. Seems I remember something like that happening — can't recall when it was.

        • Trying to pick the right instrument to go short with is the tough thing to do. FAZ is around 14 now, and will probably drop to 11-12 if we go up to 11,816 on the dow.

          So, if the market crashes after the June/July high, how high could something like FAZ go? In the beginning, it will go up slowly, as it's only gaining from the lower price of 11-12, but when it hit's 30-40, the moves up will be like a snow ball getting bigger as it rolls down the hill.

          I'm thinking about going long on FAZ with some December Calls. Maybe the 20 strike price? If the market falls like I expect it too, FAZ could top a 100 before December.

          The same could be true for TZA I guess? I don't know about 100 or not, but 50 certainly wouldn't be out of the question. Remember, that first move down from 1500 spx to 666 spx was only a Primary Wave 1… this it P3!

          The fall will be faster and more brutal… at least that's what I've been lead too believe.

    • Thanks Alpha… It was a little too long, but it was also my first video. I just “winged it”, which is why I bounced around a little too much, making in drag out too long.

      I'll try too be more organized for the next video, and keep it shorter.

  3. wow… forget about precious metal like gold, platnum, silver etc… There is only one precious metal you should be accumulating.

    LEAD!! 308, 9mm, 0.50. LOL

  4. Does anyone know the best way to buy physical metals? I just opened an account at bullion direct but I have no idea what to do from there? For instance, if I want to buy silver, what is the best form to buy it in? How is it delivered? Same with gold?? I know we sound like crazy people and hopefully we are!

  5. Wow, do we rally back to the 20 DMA ?? I can see many folks coming in to buy. I wanted to FRI but just coulnt do it…. Futures UP Huge
    I guess lets see what happens

    Take care
    Joe

  6. Excellent work Leo… you are very creative. You may be on to something here. I would like to help out by looking for these fake prints. Could you give me some idea where they may occur? I have no idea other than the sites like CNN – YAHOO – GOOGLE financial page. But that maybe a little too obvious.

    Also Leo something I would like to bring to your attention. Have you noticed certain traders that tend to appear in blogs and make a lot of correct calls, one after another. So many, that they develop this big following. Then one day they will give out a certain call but this time is goes completely opposite than what they predicted. Then they just vanish. Sounds crazy but two BIG former names from SOH & ES come to my mind.

  7. What happened to your black monday ?

    Still calling it ?

    What if europe closes in green ?

    Maybe you are in denial.

  8. LOL!!!!!!!!!!
    Contrary to what most people are thinking this is a bulls worst nightmare,
    I posted this sequence last week
    The Ritual Sequence that gave us the 7.15.2008 Major Low, 11.4.2008 Major High, 1.19.2010 Major High, comes due early next week (5.11.2010)

    I will be spending most of the day tying up loose ends, before this hurricane blows through.

    *IF* you trade with money that you need to live on, keep it in a liquid acct.

      • i'm tickled to death, i get to add my last 30% to the weekly containment setup higher than 114.80

          • It sort of makes sense for Europe to be elated and us to sag over our bailing them out. I expect a double bottom for them yet, too. Could be soon, or their rally may have legs for another day or so.

            If we rally with them today and tomorrow, I think our low will come Friday or Monday.

        • Sundancer, love your posts but don't always get the shorthand. You're selling over 114.8?

          I bought a little SDS in pre-opening. Couldn't resist. The larger trades are bullish on bearishness.

          • i'm acquiring my final 30% short inventory for a weekly containment setup

            this is not levered capital (futures, options, derivatives etc)

            be very very careful if one is going to use leverage

          • thanks for the warning. I have some puts, some TZA and also shorted the SPY straight out.

          • Thanks for explaining.

            Top trendline for the S&P 500 appears to go to about 1195. That's where I hope to acquire more SDS.

            I may short outright, need to pick some stocks.

  9. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1138-68.

    1121.50-1162 range last night (41 points – ~3 times the usual range)
    1138-1168 estimate for today (30 points – ~2 times the usual range)

    1155 currently, so estimate is -17 to +13 from here (neutral)

  10. Red, are you going to wait until tomorrow or plunge in today? Sundancer, what do you think of buying physical metals when we take another drop this week?

    • I'm not sure yet Monica? I think it's just a one day wonder, to squeeze out the shorts. It might close at the high? Hard too say, but it looks like Black Monday is for the Bears… LOL

    • physical metals make sense in a perfect world, unfortunately we don't live in one

      the amount of zero's behind your name probably won't mean much as we head toward the boiling pt.

      • So what is the point of spinning our tails in the stock market? Any advice on how to protect ourselves? I looked at real estate in Montana but don't know where in Montana and couldn't ascertain what activity was going on there? Just any remote place? Seeds?

        • capital markets provides me access to harvest capital resources

          I come from a rural background, so the loss of sophisticated living brings no fear. I also have Nautical experience so I'll embrace the coming changes.

          Just put yourself in a position where yourself & your family are comfortable.

    • That is actually a valid BULLISH signal. Such a strong buying surge following last week's 90% downside days, WHEN the bullish structure is STILL in place means a buy signal.

      I know that is not what people want to hear. But it is what the market is saying. The market is always right. But it can always change its mind. hmmm.. so that means the market is a WOMAN! wtf

  11. those with eagle eyes will notice where the operators opened the $SPX today
    1122.27
    22/7 = Pi

    I made a post on friday about the Pi ritual.
    Today is 942 CD (314*3) from 10.11.2007 $SPX all time high

    • Do you think we will still get to that print of 118.16 DIA, by around June 25th, as I estimated in my video?

      By the way, I really went out on a limb there… by making the video, but I felt that people should know what could happen.

      I'm been wrong many times, but I'm also not afraid to admit it. Clearly I'm wrong about Black Monday today (maybe not for the bears though), but I was at least smart enough to stay in cash, and wait for the 113.00 gap fill before going short.

      Of course I never thought in my wildest dreams we would rally so high, but it just makes for a better shorting spot.

      • i finally got to watch your video and loved it. i just hope you are all wrong because i dont know how to survive off the land!

          • Well, tell them to watch the video I did. Even if I'm wrong about it (and I hope I am), it should open their eye's to the possibilities that market manipulation “Does Exist”.

            Being right on wrong on the video isn't important for me… but showing everyone that the market is controlled “IS Important”. The people that open their eye's and their minds, are more likely to survive when things really get bad.

            Let's just hope I'm wrong on everything I said in the video, and then everyone will be OK, and the new bull market will continue on…

      • once the weekly containment setup completes, I'll have a better idea of the time element

        The next big time area of ritual sequences comes in early july, so should the weekly containment setup complete soon then the late june/early july area is prime time

        • It's funny how they know all of that in advance, and can pinpoint the exact high, and date (give or take a little), and then post all those clues out there for people to put together weeks, or months in advance.

  12. art cashin says that in his entire career he has never seen advances/declines = 30:1 like today.

      • To me, it looks like it is time to buy USO. What scares me is that last time USO had a move like this, the market reached it's low on Feb. 5th. That would indicate we are done with the down move?

        • I'll post a chart later, USO blew through the same weekly containment pt. that $SPX needs to back test & USO did not gap above it this morning

        • Oil is tricky to play Monica. On one hand, you have it coming into a lot of support (triple bottom), but you also have a crashing market and fear everywhere.

          Fear means that it could fall past the triple bottom, as the market now views the economy as fragile… meaning less demand for oil. I'd pass on the USO for awhile. Too hard to read.

  13. SPY TL sequence 1
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45957

    The Yellow TL is the one that held the SPY during the 10.10.2008 crash low
    The purple TL that held the SPY during the 2.5.2010 low & the previous 2 TD's is the one that held the SPY during 11.21.2008 lows

    the last time we had a violent backtest was on 4.29.2010 backtesting SPY CTL

      • @ 105.00 I have to liquidate my short inventory for the weekly setup

        The odds of 105.00 containing the downward thrust have now diminished greatly

        3 tier containment
        $SPX 1050 area
        $SPX 965
        $SPX 840

        The terminal value of the $SPX in this reaction will give us clues
        currently it's 1163.67
        There's capacity to move -27.5% uni-directionally which gives us 843.66

        This is a very very dangerous environment………..

          • There's a month's worth of Supply between $SPX 1178 – 1210, so probability is below 7% that $SPX trades 1210 till the end of May.

            The $SPX is going to backtest weekly containment @ a minimum before it puts in it's terminal high

            Today's action opens the door for much lower prices (900's 800's), which means instead of the terminal high occurring in early july, things could get pushed back all the way to December. We'll see what the rest of May brings.

            The good news for traders in general is volatility should stay elevated!!!!

          • 900? If we get that wide swing, it would be truly awesome. I may be able to get that lambo afterall. lol I am rubbing my hands already.

      • well we'll be due a wave 2 down after the 5th wave up goes in today, but it won't be a new low, but should stop around SPX 1127, then a new high by opex, then a big correction to a new low by your June date, then one final move up into August. you heard it here first!

        • Maybe? But this market looks like a big house cards now, and the storm outside might arrive earlier then you expect, or I expect. If we take out the 105 spy level,on this next leg down… I don't think DIA 118.16 is in the cards anymore.

          Very scary right now… but I'm glad to be short now, as being a bull could kill you. Look as the dollar now… it's regained almost 70% of the early morning sell off, yet the market hasn't fell yet. Oil is still down and hasn't rallied with the market. What does that tell you?

          Another leg down is coming… probably tomorrow?

        • Alpha any tgt for i of v … i guess it should be higher than 116.65 – but is there a way to calculate exactly where …

  14. Go to yahoo finance page and check out the dow % right now. It says its down 0.5% red. LOL

    • Wouldn't surprise me. With few exceptions Monday's have been up and usually big up days for the market. See last Monday for example after a down previous Friday. What did the rest of the week look like? Would not be surprised to see a big if not equal down day tomorrow. Has happened time and time again. History has shown that big cataclysismic drops are followed by a large move up 1-3 days later before going back down breeching the previous low.

  15. Well I was expecting this bounce today and planned to use it to add to some short positions. I did not expect the bounce to last past noon however.

    Ouch!

    • I'm glad I stayed in cash on Friday. I also expected a bounce… but only to fill the gap at 113.00 spy. I'm glad it went past it now, as I've got a better entry point to short from.

      • I am second guessing myself now. i had some great entries on ultras over last couple weeks moving to 20% of intended positions and looking for averages to cross and line up. Looks like a longer wait. But I am adding to those positions today possibly move up to 25%.

        Are you using spxu to short spy?

        • No spxu, as I do options. Those 3x etf's don't have enough liquidity in their options, for me to get a good entry and exit price. If you buy them outright, and not use options, you should be fine getting in and out.

          In my opinion, today will be you're last chance to get a good short entry. I don't see tomorrow rallying anymore. In fact, I believe tomorrow will be the start of the next leg down.

          • B/c everyone sees that QE Global has started. QE USA produced the March 09 rally. Wanna short the Mar 09 rally one more time? LOL

  16. The dollar has now regained almost 90% of it's gap down loss from this morning. The market hasn't went down 90% from it's gap up this morning. These two trade opposite of it other.

    They won't stay out of sync too long. Either the dollar must go back down to this mornings' gap down low, or the market must sell off. Which one do you think is more likely?

      • I've got some 112 May puts and some 110 May puts, that I picked up today. You could go out to June, but I plan to be out of them this week, as I expect the next leg down to occur very soon (maybe into the close, or at the latest by Wednesday).

  17. SPY TL Sequence 2
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45960

    What is very disturbing if you have a bullish bias is the violent backtest of the TL that held the SPY during 3.6.2009 Major Lows & 2.5.2010 Major Lows. (Light blue)

    Co-relational we're also backtesting the dark purple TL which was the catalyst for the Oct. 08' harvest of speculative capital. The dark purple TL held the SPY during the LEH-Man Ritual, failed to hold it during the Bail out Ritual on 9.29.2008. SPY then violently backtested it on 10.1.2008 before the Final Harvest.

    • Historically, the current pattern is the perfect calm inside the eye of the hurricane. It would suck to have QE Global distorting this event into an outlier.

      • I'll take the 7% odds that the $SPX is not going to print 1210 the rest of May which means it's not going to Penetrate the 5.4.2010 gap

        So the current pattern that your following should continue to play out

        • No. Not betting on new high by May OpEx. When I said May opex top, that was misleading. Sorry about that.

    • If it falls from this higher then expect level, I don't see it stopping at 105 spy, as previously thought. Too much momentum will occur, and that 105 level should break.

      Not that I'm a big follower, or expert, but in Elliottwave terms… this looks like a wave 2 back up, with a wave 3 down coming up next…

  18. Red, I just saw a fake print on the Yahoo home page of 10380 DJIA (showing down 1.33%) but I don't know how to capture it!

  19. seems so weird to me that volume traded is 50% more than average yet we are flatlining at key containment point.

    • Hi Mon, I saw the same thing this morning at 1.33% However, my trading platform did NOT show the print. YHOO's servers were swamped as well as others. My Fidelity Account was crawling.

      When you are not varying from a mean the VWAP will not change even if it is displaced.

      Keep your eye on the Hourly looking for that hidden divergence. That called the entire drop as you will recall.

  20. Sundancer, since tomorrow is the ritual date (like the jan 19th was), doesn't that mean tomorrow will be the high?

  21. Carl at day’s end:

    1138-1168 estimate for today (30 points – ~2 times the usual range)
    1144.25–1162 actual range today (17.75 points )
    Tighter range today than expected.

    Trades: No trades
    Grade: C (lost no money)

  22. Well we surpassed 1250 on S&P and pretty impressive on R2K.

    The run to 11815 may have decide to start early. Where the fuel is coming from i do not know. Volume was slightly higher than normal but substantially below last Friday. Will tomorrow be another confirmation?

  23. I think we will drop alittle tomorrow. and then a run to 120+ in the next two weeks. IMO

      • I do hope we hit a few of those lower fake prints, it seems the easy trade is to short the market and I hate that, you know what I mean.

        • That's what I was thinking. Too many people thinking tomorrow is a down day with such a move up. And I am short as well which is a bad (bullish) omen!

        • Well, that 111.30 seems pretty popular right now, as I just seen a 4th print of it. But, it's too close to the 111.47 close from yesterday to be sure it's “The Print”, as they could just be late fills?

          On the other hand, I thought the same thing about the afterhours prints of 116.80 from Thursday, and I'll be damn if we didn't go there today. Not quite exact, but 116.65 is pretty close.

          So, does the 2 113.52 prints play out tomorrow, or the 4 111.30 prints?

          • Or maybe we still get to 116.80 in the morning and go down. I don't consider a fake print to be accurate if we go to it and continue significantly through it, nor do I consider it valid if we don't quite reach it. It has to get there and bounce off. I will be covering my shorts if we go through 116.80.

          • If tomorrow is the ritual day, I think it makes sense that we make new highs before plummeting.

          • Or then again, none of the above! Never seen the $NYMO look as oversold as it did yesterday but the MACD still haven't crossed which means there is more room for the bearish case.

          • Well I think getting the direction right there is crucial, I still have painful memories of going short at March lows.

        • It's not about what Yahoo says, or the analysts. You know better then to listen to those idiots anyway. But yes, we will stay volatile… however, they need to fake everyone out.

          How would you fake out the bulls and bears, if you were them? I'd tank it one more time, and take out the 105.00 low from Thursday (maybe 103.00-104.00 range). Then, when all the bulls bailed out, and all the bears go full on short… take it back up one more time, and take out the current April high.

          It will fool the most people, and that's what the market likes too do. I quoted this chart from Dreadwin in the video I did.

          http://reddragonleo.com/media/2010

          You can see by the cross of the red and black lines, that we are near the end of the bull run. After the first top was put in, past the crossing, there was a big sell off… then one more high.

          I think the same thing will happen this time, as I explained in the video. We will probably go down hard on Wednesday, Thursday, and maybe Friday. After that, it's off to races we go again.

          • Well, I don't know if 1999 paints an accurate picture of today or not, but we are very very close too a top now. Unfortunately, when you are playing options, being off a month can kill your position.

  24. TZA opened down 14.6%, and the opening gap was not filled. TZA was down 11.7% at it’s high, and closed down 16.7%.

    An earlier gap up from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
    Today’s gap from $7.61 to $6.72 remains unfilled.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
    AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA rose quite a bit, so TNA could be a possible buy for tomorrow.
    AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, and TZA was down quite a bit, so TZA could be a possible sell for tomorrow. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.34, so this trade is now up 14.4%.

    Volume for TZA today was 50% of that of 2 days ago, but still more than usual.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 21.97% with TZA down 16.7%. No divergence.

    TZA had been up 4 days in a row, but down big today. Bad for TZA.

    The low for TZA was from eight days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.33, 19% higher. Good for TZA.

    Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 51 to 44 while TZA dropped 16%. Bad for TZA.

    MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily lately. Fast and slow lines were up today. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday,the monster white candle closed far and away above the spot that I would normally consider to far and above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD was wildly & vertically rising. Today, the small white candle closed well below the upper Bollinger Band – completing step #2 of a 3 step $RUT buy signal. MACD fast line was flat today. Ok for TZA for the time being.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle closed well above the lower Bollinger band. MACD has rolled over (down) and is still falling hard. Bad for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The white candle today was entirely above the bottom Bollinger band after closing below it last time. Could be a sign that TZA will be falling, but this will be the 3rd such candle in the past 10 trading days, and for the 2 previous like this, TZA kept rising. Not clear.

    Up volume on the NYSE today yesterday was 29 times the down volume. Last time for an UP spike this was last July 15th or so. In that case, following days were up days. I suppose this monster UP spike might also be an indication of a down day tomorrow. Hard to read.

    TZA had a lower high, lower low and much lower close – Bad for TZA.

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $ 874 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
    $ 198 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
    $ 2,881 million flowing into the market today.
    Bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, there is a feeling of choppiness and no good feel for good or bad for TZA.

      • I think we will test today's lows tomorrow. We might bounce off of gap support and go higher. I don't know. What I do know is that very short term (2 min chart) we are overbought due to the short squeeze into close.

        • It won't stay here very long. Whether it falls tomorrow or Wednesday, I don't know? But, I do believe it will go back down one more time, before another rally higher.

          By the way, thanks for your chart. I used it in my video. It matches perfect with the June 25th high, and DIA 118.16 fake print.

  25. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA was a Wait for today, was up big today, and has a (highly reliable) Possible Buy signal for tomorrow.

    TZA was a Hold today, was down big today, and has a (highly reliable) Possible Sell signal for tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.34, up 14.4% since the buy.

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
    UUP(US Dollar)
    GLD (gold)
    SLV(silver)
    SCO (-2x Oil)
    DTO (-3x oil)
    EPV (-2x Europe)

    The list to avoid:
    USO(oil)
    UCO(2x Oil)
    EWG(Germany)
    EWU(England)

    The following are possible buys tomorrow:
    IWM (1x $RUT)
    UWM (2x $RUT)
    TNA (3x $RUT)
    IYR(1x RE)
    URE(2x RE)
    DRN(3x RE)
    ERX(3x energy)
    AAPL
    AMZN
    DRI
    GOOG
    GS
    DIA
    SPY
    QQQQ
    QLD (2x QQQQ)

    The following are possible sells tomorrow.
    RWM (-1x $RUT)
    TWM (-2x $RUT)
    TZA (-3x $RUT)
    SRS (-2x RE)
    DRV (-3x RE)
    ERY (-3x energy)
    SKF (-2x Financials)
    FAZ (-3x Financials)
    SPXU (-3x $SPX)
    QID (-2x QQQQ)
    DXD (-2x DOW30)

    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible Buy of TNA, Possible Sell of TZA

  26. copying a post gednfer made on TTW, you'll find it interesting and topical:

    How can they buy it with so much confidence…….they leave clues.
    Last weeks “glitch” was no glitch. It was a very carefully engineered, hyperspeed correction to the 200MA to reset the rally, and of course make boatloads of cash.

    Why no double tap? Because what we saw WAS the SECOND tap. The first tap, which can only be seen on the ES 1&5min charts was executed the previous night within 1 minute.
    Here's the 5min for an overview of both
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YTYwZjQyY

    Anomaly the night before? 20K orders is not an anomaly. Thats computer engineering…here is the night before
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NjA2ZTMwN

    Here's the next day…..the double tap….same low.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ODA1ZjUxZTYt

    Now the trading machines have had……
    A correction to the 200MA
    A Double bottom
    And oversold indicators galore…with buy signals screaming.

    So what time is it? Its RALLY time.

    Its scary to know they can do this……but its good to know.

    • Wow Alpha…

      I think you are on to something there. But does that qualify for a double bottom, when one of the hits was in the pre-market? I don't know, but it certain makes me a little scared to be short right now.

      There were multiple (4 in all) hits of 111.30 in the afterhours today. They could be late fills, as yesterday's close was 111.47, and that's pretty close.

      But, there was also a print of 113.52 at 12:10 pm (est) today. It hit one more time in the afterhours session. That might be the target down tomorrow, and then more rallying?

      Scary how these fake prints come true. Thanks for sharing that print. I have too be extremely careful now on the short side.

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