Struggling Bulls…

By Red, on May 24th, 2010

The Bulls fell hard at the end of the day…

The market looked extremely weak all day today, as the 60 minute chart pushed hard to work off some oversold conditions. Unfortunately, the 15 minute chart didn’t help much as it was already in overbought territory, which meant that the 60 was trying to swim upstream against the monthly, weekly, and daily charts that were pushing it back down.

Tomorrow morning we have consumer confidence data and FHFA housing price index out at 10 am. Not much else to move the market, as there isn’t any earnings announcement on any company that can move the market. Too me, it’s a little frustrating as I could have gotten back in short at the high this morning, but I was expecting Tuesday to put in the high for the week.

It still might happen, but a gap up needs to occur in the morning. The downward sloping trendline has held the market tight in a falling channel for several days now. If the market can gap open tomorrow, and run higher, the next major trendline of resistance (from another falling channel) is around 1100 spx. What a wonderful place to go short… if the market would be so kind.

We could continue falling, without stopping until we hit 988 spx area, which is the 20 MA on the Monthly chart. I do believe that will stop the falling, but I won’t be going long there. I will exit most of the shorts I will hopefully purchase tomorrow, but I’d rather stay in cash and not get killed by the falling VIX on the ride back up.

So for tomorrow, it’s pretty simple… a gap up should produce a nice run up to at most 1100 spx. A flat or down open will keep the market inside the falling channel and the selling will continue.

Best of luck to everyone…

Red

P.S. As was surfing around a little bit, I went over to “Follow the Money” (link on Red Pill sites on my blogroll), and started watching a video about a earthquake watch until the 27th, and it started to bore me as it was getting too technical. But at the very end his stated the possible places for the earthquake… the lower tip of South America……………….. and Baja, CA!

You want an excuse to blame the coming crash on… how about an earthquake? God have mercy on those people if it does happen. I pray it doesn’t, but with or without the earthquake… the technicals say the market it about to puke!

Bull Trap, Bear Squeeze...

AS2009

Red – were you able to goto the doc ?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No, not yet. I've had for over 2 years now, so another week isn't going to change much. Thanks for asking.

AS2009

Wow – that's taking a pretty big risk – considering what they were saying about survival rates based on it going in further …. pls pls go …

I hope you have insurance …. is that the reason you have being delaying this ?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't have insurance, but that's not why. I just like the idea of them cutting a hole in my neck. I'll go after this sell off is done.

AS2009

I'm sorry Red – I know what you mean …. didn't mean to be sarcastic at all … just concerned … won't mention it again – sorry if it got too personal
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's fine… I know you mean well.

bigbadwolfusa

Nice write up red…i'm still in and believe it goes down some more also…eh…if you dont here from me in the morning that earthquake hit a little higher than baja and I am either gone or hopefully I get some beach front property…hahaha

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I sure hope that doesn't happen… Let's hope that's just another forecast I get wrong.

newbear

red did you see how futures are tanking right now and the asia is plummeting as well look at the kospi down 3% already this news is alarming May 24 2010, 10:31 PM
dark1p: May 25 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks and the won plunged to the
lowest in 10 months after Yonhap news agency reported that North
Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to prepare for combat.
The euro weakened and commodities declined on concern Europe’s debt
crisis may spread.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I see them now… I should, would, could got short earlier today. But, there is more selling coming. I'll be getting short tomorrow asap. Remember, about 988 spx is the monthly 20ma level. That is highly likely to be hit.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

That sure is interesting geo analysis…. very cool.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Scary huh… That's one way to bankrupt CA…

BloodWine

Hi Red really good post

So… what if penn was right and we needed to watch the kospi as our primary indicator for world markets? Is that sort of like… jupiter is conjunct uranus in the north node of Venus?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If you can line up Astrology with TA's, news event's etc… then you have one powerful move coming. I hope Penn isn't still long. He was such a diehard bull you know.

BloodWine

well…if he was really using the kospi as his primary indicator… he won't be now lmao

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Here's the scare thing (and why it's good to have friends), Keirsten noticed that the Dow closed today at 10,066.6 (rounding up the 57 cents). I missed that one.

BloodWine

I have an EW count that you need to see
BloodWine

give me about 5 minutes and I think you'll like this
BloodWine

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDkxNzliM
sorry it took me so long to get back
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Blood,

I just seen your chart. I went to bed, and you must have posted it after that. I don't think this is P3 yet. But, I do think we are going lower by the end of the week. I see 988 spx being tagged before the end of the month. It's the 20ma on the monthly chart, and should provide a nice rally back from hitting it. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be pierced intraday and close on it or higher, as that is also possible.

BloodWine

and you need to come back to the chatroom at night… we miss you

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, I see about that tomorrow night. How's that… Kinda of a family in there isn't it.

BloodWine

look forward to seeing you… and yah… with our little brother missing

Rip Van Trader

Red, earlier today when you said you were hoping for a gap opening tomorrow, I thought that was akin to betting that the next woman to walk into a room would have a mustache; possible, perhaps, but unlikely.

You may be onto something, however. Stocks advanced very little today for the decline in VIX that we had, perhaps indicating some noise in the averages.

Rip Van Trader

Guess we don't have that possibility anymore, barring an FM (a ****ing miracle).

Hope we get some kind of reaction rally so that you can get on board, Red. Or, you could buy some TZA to have a dog in the fight.

BloodWine

two words.. bear flag
wendel

Well just so you know… I sold SSO at 35.25 yesterday.

Didn't like the way it was free falling and Red's valid reasons for a free fall coming.

I'm in wait and see mode.
pezhead9000

timber, lookout below…Europe beaten down, SPY pre-market @ 104.94
bigbadwolfusa

Goooooood Moooornin all…rainy CA is still here for another day….boy red glad I listened to you….I am in your camp when it came to the charts lining up…I didn't get out yesterday still in and I still think we get close to 998…I will probably get out to day on the way down and take my little cut and be happy…
http://www.thecattrader.blogspot.com/ flipper

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37320650 Hey Red if you could send this to Anna, if she has not already seen it.. Gartman calls to jump into gold, and Whitney Tilson says more than Fast $ wanted him too..LOL! I guess Anna went all Pay site.. good for her tell her I wish her the best on her Gold trades.. 3 of 3 of 3 of wave 1 is on.. Dark, and yourself should do well, I am in 100% to the downside.. have a great day…

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Flipper babe, no Hob still free just got to Hotoptionbabe.com I miss you and thanks for the info!!~

bigbadwolfusa

ouch ouch ouch…early morning pain…we are going straight to the bottom this mornin…S3 is 105.30 and we are at 105.06 now…I think I'm safe in sayin going down eh…
bigbadwolfusa

Eh Moby…you out a bed yet…your going to miss the ride down….
bensjoyce

I don't think the big drop will happen till a little later.

jobless claims thurs, what if they are bad, ie two weeks in a row!

ism manufacturing last tradingday of the month. High dollar and weakness overseas could means weak number.

these are two reasons for a tank

Rip Van Trader

FTSE plunged at their opening and is backtesting. They ought to be done about when we open and we will probably drop together in the first hour. I expect we will spend mid-day backtesting and plunge again late in the day.

Put and ETF prices may actually peak in the afternoon, higher than the actual bottom tomorrow which may be a relatively calm affair. That's what happened last time.

jimhobson

Futures are piling on. A gap up looks out of reality. Question is when to get in. At open ?? or do you wait for that pause.

I guess i will add a little at open and see where it goes. But this expected bounce is gone IMO.

DOW Theory did say a break below 10221 was it.
Earl of

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1030-65. I expect a long lasting low to develop today or tomorrow. Once the low has been established I think the ES will begin a rally that will take it to 1300 and higher.

1036.75 – 1169.50 range last night (32.75 points)
1030-1065 estimate for today (30 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 24.6 points

1044 currently, so estimate is -14 to +21 from here (a bit bullish)
monicadern

good morning all and a good morning it is!

bigbadwolfusa

mornin…whats your guess for today…all charts are back in line and macds are pointing down…maybe 103.50

monicadern

i have no idea big bad. all i can tell is that the next level of support from diablos and suns charts looks like around 102.63 or even slightly lower. whether it gets there today is anyone's guess but i would not be surprised if it did.

bigbadwolfusa

I was trying to setup suns charts and with what info there was I have next stop at 101.85…but I dont know if that is right…

monicadern

yes, diablos' also has a line around there but one at 102.63 as well and I don't actually know which one provides support (maybe ask him). Anyway, I will be curious to see if we hit those fake prints today or maybe on the way back up?
ashsail10

Yes the next stop is around 1016-1020 spx.

monicadern

i believe the next stop is diablos' 102.63 area or so. i will sell my puts in the 990s.

bigbadwolfusa

wrestling with S3 105.30 and not doing very well

monicadern

i am not worried. just needs a bunch of bulls to jump on before it can tank.

Diablos

Some morning prints: http://screencast.com/t/NDNiMzc4

monicadern

Thanks Diablos. Do you know what the volume was on those? Will be interesting to see when we reach them.

Diablos

8:05 106.99 186,000
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradi…

monicadern

Thank you. You know who once said that volume should be 111 for fake prints. But I don't know if that is every time.

Diablos

Yup. I'm not sure what to make of them all, some work like a charm, some don't.

monicadern

just realized your fake print at 8:05 = 666

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Gang,

I did see a fake print to 1072.00 last night, but I seriously doubt that we will even get close it for awhile. Maybe 1050.00, but that's about it. The bulls are trapped and want out. The market won't let them.

Before the end of the week I expect the 20 MA on the Monthly chart to be hit. Currently it's around 988 spx. I did get short this morning, although I was I would have done that yesterday.

But, this isn't “The Big One”, as that won't happen until later this year. When? Unknown right now, but I'll be more prepare for it when it finally does arrive.

So for now, it's just a waiting game…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

FYI…

If you all remember my Sunday post where I mention a site called BAM Investors. Apparently, “Network Solutions” lost 100% of their email list of clients… just before this big sell off we are having.

I think you can put two and two together here, and say that “they” didn't want BAM Investors informing their clients of what is coming.

I doubt that this site will ever get that popular, and I hope it doesn't. For if it does… it might disappear one day. If so, make sure you all have my twitter, facebook, etc… feeds on your buddy list.

If that disappears…

well, you can figure that one out for yourself… can't you.

Go read the twitter feed at BAM Investor

http://twitter.com/baminvestor

monicadern

Does this BAM investor thing make you scared enough not to want to get long in the 990s? My issue is that if you listen to a bunch of people, you'll get a bunch of answers and so far, you know who has been 100% right. He said that as the market came down, everyone would panic while he was getting long.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No Monica,

I just don't want to get long because of the high vix, and how it will kill anyone with straight calls. Plus, there will be a lot of whipsaw action the first few days.

I may take a call spread, or just sit it out until the dust settles. There still is a small chance that the 20ma (about 988 spx) will fail and the market will continue down to the 875 spx level.

I would rather just sit in cash and watch…

monicadern

I'm not talking calls. I was going to start buying stocks. I guess I will stick to my plan of investing about 40% there and the rest lower. I have a whole list of stocks I have selected if you are interested although a monkey could probably pick stocks better than me!

AS2009

Would be very interested …
monicadern

again, a monkey can pick stocks better than me but here you go:
ADM, JOYG, MON, MOS, PBR, QQQQ, RIMM, SLW, YZC, GE, FWLT, IYR, IWM, HGSI, HES, GENZ, FE, EXC, DOW, DO, DE, COP, CMI, CLF, CHRW, CAT, BBH, BAC, BA, AKAM, FWLT, F, GS

Diablos

Daily: http://screencast.com/t/NGQ5ZDBiNDg

gcocks83

Nice Charts, Thanks.,
ashsail10

Thanks Diablos. How do you draw in tdameritrade? If I say advance charting I can draw only max 3 sma's or 3 ema's. Thanks again

Diablos

I am using Think or Swim. https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.js…

monicadern

Thank you – I am thinking of signing up for it but they charge a lot for options, no? 1.75 a contract? Or do they peg their fees to whatever I have at Ameritrade?

Diablos

I actually don't trade through them nor do i have an account funded. I filled out the required info to download their software.
monicadern

NO WAY!! good to know.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

TOS is good for low numbers of options, but after about 10 or so, you are better off with Ameritrade, as they charge .75 per contract past the first one of $10 bucks.
monicadern

Thats what I have found. Just surprised that Ameritrade has the lowest fees. They charge the most for margin but I am staying far far away from that anyway.

Rip Van Trader

Wow, that is excellent, Diablos.

I have to figure out how to use that part of the Ameritrade software. It's a bit incomprehensible.
monicadern

Awesome. Thank you.
monicadern

What is the difference between the 102.58 and the 101.85 lines?
AS2009

Diablos – don't see anything – it says no picture available … can u share again pls ?
AS2009

I get this msg … pls could you upload again ?

We're sorry! We were unable to locate the requested page.

Please check the URL you entered to make sure it is correct.

If you were looking for content owned by a Screencast.com user, please contact the content owner for more information.

gcocks83

Hi Red, When I open an attachment here it opens in this window. so I have to hit the back button to return and then scroll back down the site. I have noticed at other sites that when I open an attachment it opens a new window. then I a can just tab back and forth. Is that a setting on your side that can be change?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's called a “lightbox”, and it simple opens up over top of the website, and is closed by simply clicking on the image… anywhere on it.

You can still “right click”, and select “open in new window” or “open in new tab”, and view it that way.

gcocks83

Red, Thanks,

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The market is trying to make it up to the top trendline around 1070 spx. I don't know if it will make it there or not, but if so… it's a great spot to add more shorts.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

monicadern

wish I could! sideways action kills my puts.
jimhobson

I am looking. glad i did not add at open

monicadern

It doesn't matter. You either ride the waves or you don;t. Trying to time an entry is difficult. I would say Red is right though. I would get in at Diablos' print. 106.44 or 106.99. How do you guys like them apples? 106.99 = 666!! CUTE!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Gang,

The 15 minute chart is what's hold the market up for now. It is working off the oversold conditions from this morning. It's in positive territory now, and should roll back down into the close, causing more selling. Patience… 988 spx is highly likely to be tagged by this Friday.

newbear

GL to us all red

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes NB…

I hope we all survive this market.

monicadern

Thanks Red! Let's all hold hands!

Rip Van Trader

VIX making a cup and saucer on Yahoo 5 day chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interac…

Edit: That is cup and handle.

monicadern

thanks rip – i had not noticed that and I am long vix calls. The volatility waning is hurting my puts and calls so i hope the formation works!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Monica,

I learned from Anna that you should stay out of VIX calls or puts. Something about the way they price them? She knows, but I can't explain it. She only does spreads on them. Just don't buy any of them straight out again.

monicadern

OK Red – thanks. Done well on them so far but I am sure she is right.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

She knows her options, that's for sure. She can tell you about the delta, theta, vega, etc… which is over my head. Of course her style of trading is different then mine, but I've learn a lot from her on how to play options.
monicadern

Yep, she knows her stuff.

jimhobson

Would that apply to vxx?

i have played that but you must pay attention.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, it applies to it too.

Rip Van Trader

So much for wishful thinking.

newbear

GL to us all red
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Blood,

I just seen your chart. I went to bed, and you must have posted it after that. I don't think this is P3 yet. But, I do think we are going lower by the end of the week. I see 988 spx being tagged before the end of the month. It's the 20ma on the monthly chart, and should provide a nice rally back from hitting it. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be pierced intraday and close on it or higher, as that is also possible.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

She knows her options, that's for sure. She can tell you about the delta, theta, vega, etc… which is over my head. Of course her style of trading is different then mine, but I've learn a lot from her on how to play options.
monicadern

I am hoping we get up to 106.99 and then tank into the close. May the force be with us

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Almost there now… one more push, and that's all she wrote.
jimhobson

Just got your hit. Now we see??

jimhobson

Did the bulls grow some gonads??
monicadern

getting mighty close. Hang onto your hats!
monicadern

just hit it. lets see what happens
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If they close the SPY today at 106.66, all hell is going to break loose tomorrow.

bigbadwolfusa

all day and this is the best it gets….I'm in for a drop tomorrow…hourly is trying to turn but daily not moven
jimhobson

Which way????

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We are going down Jim. We tagged 106.99, and we are now overbought on the 15 minute chart. We should sell off into the close and tomorrow too.
bigbadwolfusa

we goto 100 or 101 tomorrow then up and that free advice right there

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

long for next few days been long from 105.50 area

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Good luck to both of us.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

you short ?????

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yes, I'm expecting 988 spx by Friday. I know you're hedged, but still be careful. We have 106.99 spy as the fake print, and then more selling.

monicadern

red, i wouldn't be providing advice.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Don't worry i have too many mouths to feed and a will follow myself and make my own decisions, not buying into that again
monicadern

ok – i just don't want you guys to fight over something stupid. You do fine on your own so just listen to yourself.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

that's it girl….never go against a woman's intuition!! LOL
SC

Bingo
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

that made me laugh out loud! hahahahah for 10min.

I went long @ 1047 today and looking around 1120=30 then new down move
SC

You are one of the best traders. You really should go pro and start a hedge fund.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

aweeeeeeeeeeehhh shoot blushing….
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Laughing at me huh… nice friend.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

no REd I was laughing at his comment about the Titantic! sheesh you have some issues I wasn't speaking of you at all!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Ok then, I guess I interpreted it wrong… sorry.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Sorry I am not with you ….Tomorrow should be higher..this is just a bit of overbought short 1/5 min…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I understand. Still my friend I hope… Best of luck to both of us.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Sure friends!! but never follow you again
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's good. We'll just keep the market talk out of out conversation. I like friends better.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

you have to follow your own game plans and knowing options I can play both ways….VIX is telling us a higher day tomorrow I have a put spread on it
MobyDoc

cool,,, I new you couldnt be mad at the ole dog for long..:)
bigbadwolfusa

you just get up moby…missed u today
MobyDoc

been busy fixin people
monicadern

oh doctor, why didn't I get that?! Can you fix me?!
MobyDoc

bad back?
monicadern

bad brain!
bigbadwolfusa

thats constructive…I been getting allot of your weather down here and have to say I am tired of it…give me my sun back…
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

nah hahahahaha
bigbadwolfusa

just looked at the daily and it looks allot like friday then look what happened….this stuff can make you crazy…

monicadern

so far so good.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

that's it girl….never go against a woman's intuition!! LOL
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's good. We'll just keep the market talk out of out conversation. I like friends better.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

BTW target of 1120-30 for right shoulder then lower lows
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

next false print to 109.18
monicadern

well we busted through that print. Wonder if that's where the market will close instead.
jimhobson

Do not know where they got it together but that is some bounce.

Not sure I want to add into this yet. Normally i would but the bears got scared today.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We are still in the falling channel, and overbought on the 15 minute chart now. The 60 is barely above the zero level and could roll over anytime. You already know the monthly, weekly, and daily charts are pointing down.

This is a bull trap… Tomorrow we will sell again.

monicadern

i'm with you red. Stick to your guns.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I told you what I expect for 2 days and I am long from 1047 /es

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

In my opinion, tomorrow will be another down day.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Well we shall see eh?
monicadern

What if tomorrow starts up and winds up down? Then are you both right?!
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

there you go! I do think we see 1100 or 1120
monicadern

hope not or my ass will be grass. but it is entirely possible!
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

no don't want that!! but remember if we do rally hard like I think the vix could go to 30 which will really sting on options so careful
monicadern

k – thanks for the warning anna.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Maybe buy a vix put spread to hedge yourself
monicadern

anna, I am stubborn as a mule and will pay the price if I need to.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

heheheheheheh
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You know I'm not against you, as I have a longer time frame of trading in mind, and you might swing in and out intraday. So we both can make money with this. I'm rooting for you.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

longer term bearish but first right shoulder on inverse

bigbadwolfusa

i agree so far…the hr i am tired of looking at up macd down macd so its right there….but I look at the effort to get here and bulls cant get this to PP so I still in the down camp…

jimhobson

The vixes were the enemy today. there is no fear selling. It will be interesting to see the volume.

bigbadwolfusa

I got 324.1 for today so far…red candle…yesterday 269

monicadern

on a cup and handle formation (as rip mentioned the VIX appears to be in), the handle should be lower volume than the cup and once it starts to break out of the handle, the volume should increase.

jimhobson

No i am hoping i do not get stopped out.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

But remember to always be hedged
monicadern

red – i think I might know where we close today

bigbadwolfusa

ok please tell…I say 107.08

monicadern

well I was going to say 106.99 but it doesn't look like it is happening.

bigbadwolfusa

here it comes….

bigbadwolfusa

hahahaha…had the right numbers just the wrong order…

monicadern

ha ha! Just another day in paradise.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

False print to 1.0927

monicadern

when?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

when did I get it? yesterday afternoon

monicadern

k. Thanks for the heads up/

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

anytime!

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

those things are eerie eh?

monicadern

yes, but i told red that when the go through, I don't really believe in them. They have to stop and reverse at least close to the level.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I take them with my other indicators as a bundle
monicadern

yes, wise.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I seen this last night, but I didn't believe it would be hit today. Keep you eyes open for one tonight…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

New print… 105.90 spy

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
ashsail10

Thanks RDL. what is your target timeframe to reach 990's?
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

This Friday…
ashsail10

Thanks RDL. I didnt do any trades today, but the reversal looks very bullish to me.
ronwilker

i'm hoping that the overall trend will take us there
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

that was only a late fill there were a few of those, if the market has been there then you see that false print end of day then it's not a false print, only when the tape has not been near the false print.

jimhobson

Anna may be right. Vixes are 6-7% down . have not been there in quite a while.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

a good sign of things to come

monicadern

red, how are we looking on the charts? I am hoping this is our usual backtest of containment.

jimhobson

The chartists will be very interesting tonight. I cannot wait to hear chart trader
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Very overbought on the 15, but the 60 could push up some tomorrow. Still in the channel though…

monicadern

Wait a second – all we did at the close is fill the gap from this morning, no?
Earl of

Carl at day’s end:

1030-1065 estimate for today (30 points)
1038.50–1073.75 actual range today (35.25 points )
Market was 8 points above Carl’s range.

For the past 10 days, average actual range is 25.7 points
Trades: No Trades (only one trade in the past 10 days)

Grade: C (lost no money)
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

BAM Investors is offering a free short term trial now. Probably because of the lost of their email list mysteriously…

Link to sign up is on their twitter feed. Everyone should sign to see what they are talking about…

http://twitter.com/baminvestor

SC

“Free ticket for the Titanic!!” Hurry!

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

ROFL hahahah

Earl of

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
TZA opened up 6.6%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 11.6% at it’s high, and closed up 0.13%.

AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today. TNA was down 3 cents, so TNA will likely be a Wait again for tomorrow.

AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up 1 cent, so TZA was not sold. TZA might remain a possible sell for tomorrow. The buying price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.64, up 25.25% in 6 days.

Volume for TZA today was 33% above it’s 1 month average. Good for TZA.
Volume for TNA today was 42% above it’s 1 month average.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 7% with TZA up 0.13%. A divergence.

TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, and now up 2 days. Choppy, and went no where the last 3 days. Not good for TZA.

The low for TZA was from 20 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.62, 43% higher. Good for TZA.

Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 56.1 to 49.0 (-7.1) while TZA was up 0.13%. Big divergence. Bad for TZA.

MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX gapped up & touched the upper Bollinger Band then fell to create a long red candle and closed far below the top Bollinger band. The fast MACD line is pointing down, the slow line is still rising. Yesterday was the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a white candle that closed above the lower Bollinger Band, with a long tail below that band. MACD is falling sharply. Hard to read.

Last Thursday: On the NYSE, down volume was 73 times the up volume. Usually, the market bounces after a number this large. Maybe not the next day, but the day after that.
Last Friday: On the NYSE, up volume was 9 times the down volume. A nice bounce, as expected (for today or tomorrow).
Yesterday: Expected, but did not get a bounce in $RUT.
Today: no bounce in $RUT. (Good for TZA)

TZA had a much lower high & higher low & slightly higher close (Good for TZA)

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$13,442 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$ 232 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 2,671 million flowing out of the market today.
Good for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, No guess for TZA for tomorrow Too many unusual happenings.
bensjoyce

why can't 990 wait until Monday, last trading day of the month? Oh Oh is monday a holiday and the markets are closed??? duh I hate if when I do this.

Maybe thurs jobless claim will be low. two in a row will pounce the market. John Williams of Shadow Stats (whatever they're called) stated a month ago that mid year weakness in the economy will show- indicated by the “M3-adjusted for inflation” (He says he can still put together an M3- the Gov quit revealing it.)

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Lots of bulls are were sucked in today. I went short too early, as I should have listened to what this fake print was telling in the morning, but I didn't think it would get there today.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

Regardless, more selling is coming. Thursday will be the most bearish day probably, and Friday could be the capitulation day?

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

We've had greater than a 78% retrace of the move down that started at yesterday's highs. If you look at the eminis, you'll note that we went up today faster than we went down since yesterday. It looks impulsive, not corrective. $vix put in another bearish engulfing candle. I think this is more than just a temporary bounce. We're oversold. I think it could take some time to work this off.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It could go up to 1090 spx Dread, and then head back down. But I don't think the selling is over yet. Still NO capitulation…

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Junk bonds did not set a new low today.

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…

bensjoyce

Is friday the “end of the month” options expiration???????
because monday it's closed?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Just the end of the month, not opx.

bensjoyce

So when is opx for EOM May??

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Last Friday.

bensjoyce

Last friday was the usual options expiration but there is also End of the Month option expiring the last trading day of the month

I'll have to ask my broker

bensjoyce

its on the CME
Earl of

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA was a Wait today, was down 0.14% today, and is an (unlikely) possible buy for tomorrow.

TZA was a possible sell today, was flat today, and is Confirmed Sell. The buy price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.1% since the buy.

Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
SLV(silver)
UCO(2x Oil)
ERX(3x energy)
AMZN
GS
SPY
QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ)

The list to avoid:
UUP(US Dollar)
USO(oil)
AAPL
DIA
EWX(emerging mkts)
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
DZZ (-2x Gold)

The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT)
DRI
GOOG
DRV (-3x RE)
EPV (-2x Europe)

The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
ERY (-3x energy)

The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: none
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: none

Summary: Fairly Bullish
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Avoid TZA, possible (but unlikely) buy of TNA
Rip Van Trader

Boy, am I tempted to cash in the next morning I turn on a computer to see a vast quantity of dollars but, come to think of it, that might be operant conditioning.

I don't think we saw a bottom today because of:

1. Impressive but not stunning volume.
2. Insufficient fear. What's with all this reflex buying?
3. CPCI not especially high, but with other put/call ratios is within striking distance of marking a bottom.
4. SPX is at the top of a channel; well, maybe peeking over a bit but so did the last major rally.

VIX has made a 50% correction from its top. I'll allow that the 5 day chart looks pretty grim, but it could be ready to roll tomorrow.

Top end for a rally is 1100, IMO, because 8 and 200 dmas converge there. Think it might spook the bulls if we had trouble getting back over the 200 dma? Also, it was a long climb up from 1041; the gap drop this morning took no energy at all.

I'm thinking tomorrow COULD look a lot like May 18th so I'm going to stick though a 1-2 day rally seems very likely. I've stuck since 116, so what the hey. Will re-evaluate at EOD tomorrow.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm thinking the same thing Rip… still NO real panic. That doesn't sit well with a bottom being formed. (New Post, by the way…)

Earl of

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1065-95. I think yesterday's low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see a series of 20-30 point swings up and down within the 106–1100 range over the next few days. Once the market stabilizes a move to 1300 will begin.

1070.50 – 1185.75 range last night (15.25 points)
1065-1095 estimate for today (30 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 25.7 points

1082 currently, so estimate is -17 to +13 from here (a bit bearish)
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