Bull Trap, Bear Squeeze…

By Red, on May 25th, 2010

Hard reversal on oversold 15 minute chart…

On Monday, at the close, the 15 minute and 60 minute charts aligned up together pointing down. That caused the massive sell off into the close and afterhours session. Tuesday opened up with a gap down to 1040 spx, and struggle to get back higher early on.

But in the afternoon the 15 minute and 60 minute chart aligned up together once again… but this time pointing up. This caused the short squeeze into the close, and higher afterhours numbers. Many bulls went long here and will probably have a chance to get out in the morning tomorrow, as the 60 minute chart is still pointing up.

But, the 15 is now overbought and will roll back down when the 60 is peaked. I expect that to happen in the first few hours of the day. Once it rolls, the 15 minute chart will follow. Then once again all 5 time frames will be pointing down again. I expect the 1040 low to be taken out on this next move down.

Nothing has really changed to make me be bullish on the market. The Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts are still going down, and will push this market down hard when the 60 and 15 re-align back down. The market is still stuck in a downward sloping channel, and it will have to gap up out of it tomorrow to gain more traction to the upside.

If it’s able to gap out of the channel, it will find another wall of resistance from a different downward sloping trendline around 1100 spx, and that’s assuming it’s able to go through the horizontal resistance line at 1090 spx. Since the 60 minute chart is more powerful then the 15 minute, it’s possible that a run for 1090 could happen. But first it must gap out of the channel it’s currently in.

I just don’t see that happening tomorrow. I see a flat open, and some chopping sideways action until the 60 minute chart gets overbought. Then I see another move down coming. I now see the writing on the wall, and for those with a keen eye, they also shall see.

So, I wish all you bulls a bears the best success possible.

Red

P.S. Someone asked me if the fake prints work and how accurate they are. Monday night I caught one, but didn’t think it would play out today, as it was too high from the gap down that occurred. So I went short close to the open, instead of waiting, and getting a much better entry on the rally back up. That’s the emotional part that I’m still working on, as learning to trust what I see in the charts is the hardest part. It clearly showed me that it was oversold, and should rally up some… and of course the print told me the target, but I didn’t listen.

Still learning I am…

Sell Off, Or Gap Out...

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

If this was a wave 1 of 5, the wave 2 retrace should have stopped at 1065 (50%) or 1071 (61.8%). The /es has taken out the equivalent of nearly 1086, which is still larger than the next higher retracement level. Technically, yes, anything short of Friday's high would still make this a wave 2. But when there is greater than a 78% retrace, the odds suggest that it is something else.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

So what are your thought on tomorrow Dread? If the print in the picture plays out to the downside, then that could be a “B” wave down in an “ABC” move up to 1090 or 1100 spx.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Hard to say, given how much of this move will play out in the futures. I think a maximum for tomorrow is in the neighborhood of 1095-1100. I think we will gap up to as high as 1090 (end of wave 3), spending most of the day in a meandering wave 4 before a squeeze into the close. That will be “A”, with “B” to come on Thursday. “C” should finish by Monday.

There is a lot that can happen between now and then, however.

Financials look extremely bullish today, and I think they are leading this move. $spx is lagging.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That is possible, but in order for that to happen… the market must gap up out of this falling channel. Futures are falling back down now, as I type this. No gap up tomorrow means we will still be in the channel, and I'd expect a lower low to happen.

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Yes, that's possible.

Alternatively, forget about channels for a moment. Just look at the candlestick on $spx. Zoom out one year, and look for a similar candle — you'll find one at the Feb. lows/reversal day. I don't see any others like it.

Here's another chart:

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…

When DTO paints a black candle, odds strongly favor downside continuation.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looking at that chart, I would definitely agree with you. It looks pretty clear cut, and simple too me. I would short it, no questions asked.

But, that doesn't mean for sure that the spx will go up. Yes, oil is a big player in it, but there are others too. Hard to say for sure, as there are a lot of mixed signals.

Read Cobra's blog too, he's still bearish…
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

The correlation between spot oil and $spx is .9 (1 being perfect). Would you take 90% odds?

Granted, the black candle isn't perfect. I have at least one “miss” on that chart.

I am very familiar with Cobra's blog. He's not wrong to suggest that you short any bounce in $spx until proven wrong. What's different? The black candle in DTO is different.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I won't disagree with that… black candles are very accurate reversal patterns. But, we are both just guessing based on past history, using technical analysis, and pattern formation.

I'm sure that they are out to trick everyone, so they can take all the money… from the bulls and bears alike. LOL
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

Don't forget that Shanghai has put in a bottom that hasn't been tested in two days. It tends to lead. Ditto for copper.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I don't doubt that we are near a bottom… we are very, very close. I'm just not sure that we are there yet? Maybe? I think when the market is close to a top or bottom, the signals get equally mixed, so as to confuse as many people as possible.

I'm definitely showing bottoming signals, but my gut tells me this is just a trap… for the bulls. I know I've been wrong many times in the past, and I could be wrong on this one too.

But today just seemed like an ordinary day… as in “NO Panic”. You have too admit that it's awful odd to bottom without panic… meaning “capitulation”. Then all those 6's in closing prices I posted has me spooked that they are still sending out a message.

Then reading Raymond Merriman's weekly post on Astrology (on my blogroll) is also negative until June 25th…. remember that Wilshire chart I posted? What if June 25th is the market bottom?

You could be right, as I see your point clearly. From a technical basis, this market looks like it could be bottomed? But, I'm going to stay short and see what bearish Thursday and Friday bring.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

Red I think something like what you are describing is likely, look at 1106 as a possible level of interest. This “UP” wave in my opinion will probably be more of a sideways wave that corrects more in time than it does in price. (I'm talking over the next week or so)

Talk to you soon,

EWE

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I just looked at your chart (http://elliott-wave-education.com/wp-content/up…). I think the wave 5 down is too short, and today's move up was a B wave inside a ABC down for the 5th wave… but I'm not an expert in EW.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

Red 5th waves often are the shortest of all three impulse waves 1,3,5. Also not sure if I'm reading your post the way you intended but wave 5 CANNOT be an ABC. All impulse waves are themselves composed of 5 waves.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, like I said… I don't know EW that well.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

Dreadwin,

I believe we have just completed a wave A down from the April highs, we are now going to experience a wave B which will be sideways to slightly up, after which we will see another large leg down. After all this is done we should resume the bull market from the March 2009 lows. There are detailed charts and explanations on my site http://www.Elliott-Wave-Education.com

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

A 5 day move to 1100, 1125 seems reasonable to work off the overbought condition. After that? No idea. But if Shanghai has indeed set a bottom, I think that we have as well. What are your alternate wave counts like?

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

I'm waiting to see if Oil really does get to $65 a barrel, making USO 30.4…. any buy, under 32 is a winner..34 may take awhile.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If you signed up for BAM Investors free trial, they have oil going down to 55 in June, and Gold going to 888… plus they have spx going down to 529, which is way too bearish for my thinking…

Did I just say that's too bearish? What's wrong with me? LOL

Turbo Tim

Did you sign up or anyone you know

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, I signed up. Not much in their back office, but I guess they do most of their stuff through email instead of posting it?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Another friend emailed me this… and not the friend you are all thinking of. He was able to notice something I missed, and if you are a “believer” then you can see that danger is still ahead….

Quote….

The New York Stock Composite closed at 6666 to day (if one rounds the 4th number) and at one point I saw the Dow down 99.66 at 9966 and I saw the SP at 1066 and 1069 and the 50 day average of $RUT is at 696

End Quote…

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

believer? Are you a 2012 guy too LOL.

just joking

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, I'm not sure what will happen in 2012, but I do believe some big changes are coming.

Elliott-Wave-Education.com

Haha i think your right about that…. I feel as if a huge shift in human nature will occur…. not mass extinction as others predict.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

David Wilcox has an excellent video talking about it. Go to Project Camelot (on my blogroll), and find him. It's about 2 hours long but worth watching.
Elliott-Wave-Education.com

Cool thanks! I'm definitely very interested in the theories.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

You will like the video a lot, as it will open your mind up to things you never new existed. He backs them up with lots of facts and evidence too.

P.S. Nice new look on your blog.

jason_70

Whoa man. I'd say, i have visited more than 50 blogs today and yours is the ONLY blog that is NOT even considering the possibility of a bottom here. I am completely with you on this one man.

“I expect the 1040 low to be taken out on this next move down.”
This is exactly my point too.

If you look at the same chart of SPX using line chart rather than candlesticks, you will see a horrible looking broken chart. Just when you use a candlestick you start seeing hammers and divergences etc. Close being the ONLY important thing on the chart, a line chart gives better picture i guess.

Thank you for your wonderful analysis.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for stopping by Jason. I'm waiting on the QQQQ's to put in a double bottom, and then I believe the rest of the market will have probably bottomed.

monicadern

Red, I just realized that 2012 is the boiling point. Boy am I slow 2012 = 212! Anyway, I think you are right that we go up, test containment for a few hours and plunge. I am going to stay away from the computer for a while so I don't have to endure the interim pain.
Rip Van Trader

I expect that we will bounce off 1090 early and spend much of the day correcting the rally, to resume it later. Pivot point is 1063 so I think that's where we'll go.

I'm a little torn on this, but I don't like my inventory as well as I could and would like to realign. I think I will partially cover at 106X and buy back in at EOD or tomorrow.

No guts, no glory!

monicadern

i'm staying put. When if falls, we won't be able to get in.

Rip Van Trader

You could be right. Actually, I reconsidered after my last post. If we go up, I'll buy more puts. Otherwise, I'll sweat it out.
jimhobson

That is the perplexing problem. I got stopped out last friday and had a tough time getting back in.

But do you ride it if a shoulder decides to form and we head to 1250?

Earl of

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1065-95. I think yesterday's low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see a series of 20-30 point swings up and down within the 106–1100 range over the next few days. Once the market stabilizes a move to 1300 will begin.

1070.50 – 1185.75 range last night (15.25 points)
1065-1095 estimate for today (30 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 25.7 points

1082 currently, so estimate is -17 to +13 from here (a bit bearish)
jimhobson

Looks we are going to get the gap up. Surprising since all the oscillators especially on 60 are pointing down.

So are we consolidating to for a base for a right shoulder or not. Normally i would be inclined to think this is just respite for bears that took profits and not a signal yet to go long for a shoulder.

but I do not want to bleed so I may exit my shorts w/ little loss and wait. Not my preference since the only real signal are on 5 minute where averages are bullishly aligned.

Still cannot beleive the bulls had the balls to pull yesterday off.

Rip Van Trader

I don't get the shoulder idea. Do you mean for a long-market top? I think the shoulder will come when this correction is complete.

For parallels to where I believe we are right now, check out 11/13/07 and 1/8/08. It looks like we are rallying before a third leg down. How high will we go? 1109 would be high enough based on the 1/07 case.

Safest course would be to wait it out.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

While we could have a pullback to 106 spy, and then another push up to 1100 spx, I believe we still need to go back down and make a double bottom for the QQQQ's before the bottom is in on the market
http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

Looking at SPY, i see two 2 green bars in 3 days with > avg volume (sell stoppers). I vote right shoulder and wait for a reversal on 50ema.
monicadern

Forget the shoulder people! The trend is down!

jimhobson

trend is down a nd a RS is within the down trend. But it can drive us shorts nuts in the shorterm. And then if we are wrong???

monicadern

You either have a conviction or you don't trade. If you keep second guessing yourself you will get whipsawed. Have a plan of action from the start.

monicadern

especially in a volatile market like this.
jimhobson

Monica you are absolutely correct IMO. But i am a retired Army Officer that has been in combat many times.

You can plan and plan but when the bullets fly plans change quickly and you must adapt.

In this instance iam not all in my short positions so i may ride a little longer.

This am i saw several” experts talking about runs to 1100-1120. Only Red sees a continuation in the short term down. So i am adjusting my stops.

monicadern

if you listen to 100 people, you will get 100 answers. either you are a short term trader (day), a medium term trader (swing), or a long term trader (more like me) so you have to figure out what works best for you. But, you can't switch between all of them or you will get killed.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Actually Monica, we are probably more like “Medium” term, but yes I agree.
monicadern

true true.
jimhobson

Again i agree. I consider myself a swing trade also.

But hanging on when averages are moving and can change the trend can also kill you.

today will be very see if the bulls can effect average changes on the 60 minute
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The daily chart is now showing it's first signs of turning back up. So, today belongs to the bulls. Tomorrow and Friday belongs to the Bears. We should have our low in this week.

Then I believe Bulls will run her until the end of June… with up's and downs along the way of course.
monicadern

Red, I think the fall could happen today. Again, could (who really knows)?
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It could start today, but the big move down should be tomorrow. Both the 15 and 60 are pointing up and rising with strength now. The daily isn't putting any downward pressure now, as it's trading sideways and trying to hook back up.

It's coming though. Tomorrow will be our day, and maybe Friday too? I think next week will be up, as the daily will have put in a nice hook pointing up by this Friday. That will give lot's of strength to the bulls next week.
monicadern

The VIX is riding right on it's 20 MA which has provided strong support recently.
http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

I used to work with a Marine and he called this the Fog of war
jimhobson

It is the Fog of Financial for sure.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Until the QQQQ's put in a double bottom, the market isn't done selling. After that, then we go to put in a fake right shoulder.
monicadern

looks to me like vix should bounce from here. Sitting right on it's support line.

Rip Van Trader

Yeah, it looks to be at a TL. I just bought some TZA puts (didn't have enough puts). I will buy more if/when they get cheaper.

monicadern

just hit anna's print.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Hey Mon you see that! right on target

monicadern

good eyes anna. do you happen to know what the volume was on that print?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

that might be the high girl

monicadern

Agreed. Good call Anna.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

thanks sweetie I have figured out when they are signals and when they are just late fills

monicadern

Can you check out the one I just saw on the VIX? I don't know how to look at the volume?

bs

Saw one of your fake prints yesterday morning at the chaos, believe it was 1072. Filed it away, damn if that was not close at the end
jimhobson

My drawing charts are 15 minutes behind.

Initial volume spike seems done and RSi seems to be wanting to turn??

Is it wishfull??
monicadern

BAD NEWS – fake print on the VIX at 24.10. I can see it on my ameritrade candlestick 5 minute chart but I don't know how to copy it? Nor do I know how to look at the volume?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I will go see and take a screen shot if I can see it

monicadern

k – thanks.
monicadern

the problem is, how do you know if the prints will come sooner versus later?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

see it and grabbing a chart

monicadern

K – wish I knew how to do it. Ameritrade doesn't show volume.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Vix false print
http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folde…

monicadern

THank you but how do you know what the volume is? Do you think this is a real one and how do you know whether the move comes now or later?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

it co-insides with my theory that we are forming a right shoulder on inverse H&S that will take us to 1120-30 then lower lows

monicadern

k. I believe you now but how do you look at the volume? Just called Ameritrade and even they couldn't tell me – said it was an erroneous print.
Rip Van Trader

I don't think it will get quite that high and that will be the trick on the bulls.

You never know, though.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I have figured out a good way to interpret whether they are late fills or true falsies

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

There is no volume that you can see on VIX as it
s an indicator

monicadern

Yes, so how do you know if it is valid?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

because there is nothing that shows it to be late fill (we didn't get there this morning then rally back as in late fill)

jimhobson

Thats 20 % if its for eal. I do not know if I am a believer yet
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I would say that VIX falsie will show up most like tomorrow

jimhobson

So you think the vix hits 24.10 tomorrow???

That would indicate some serious buying. I would have a hard time not loading shorts.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Yes I do Jim

Turbo Tim

EU are up 2+, may be coincides with ur call at 1120 area and vix

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

yes think so most like ly tomorrow I put on A VIX put spread earlier that helps offset VIX options burn

bensjoyce

perhaps the “false print” vix at 24 or so (another 5 pts down) coincides with 1100 on the mini esp (200dma) or 1110 the gap fill

I'll be watching jobless claims tomorrow. two bad figures in a row is a bummer for the bulls. But on the other hand jobless claims are not a big mover.

jimhobson

The consumer 60 number yesterday may have been the catalyst.

It was surprising but I believe it was falsified.

i see more contraction locally. Tourism is getting killed here.
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

yes I think so Ben, and remember those claims real or not might be good! I just try and make $$$ both ways. I prefer down

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

should start back up now spx that is

Rip Van Trader

I'm expecting a bear party to 1065-1070, may take up a spread there if it happens.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

yes great choice if the VIX continues to drop then a spread is the best spot to be in

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Nice dip here Die BP yes I have 30 puts
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

nice drop so far
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We all know that Thursday's have been the most bearish day of the week for quite some time now. I'm expecting them to actually tell the truth on the job's data tomorrow, which will cause some selling to occur.

They left a gap this morning that needs to be filled, and they still haven't put in a double bottom on the Q's. I believe they will tag 41.55 or lower, before going higher to put in the right shoulder that everyone is looking for.
http://www.thecattrader.blogspot.com/ flipper

Hey Anna, your on Dragon's site.. cool… I know your trading.. don't reply back.. will chat with you in the morning.. or this evening.. Your site is members only.. the boys can't pull you up either.. I just called them to let them all know your on Red's site.. so their switching twitter sites.to the..Red Dragon's, hopefully as I am typing.. .So, hope to catch you later tonight here at the Dragons Den, or in the morning OK.. gotta go catch some ZZZZZZZZzzzz'z's have a good day everyone….

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

No Flipper its not members only you have to click on the subject line and takes you to disqus babe!
Don't switch Flipper email me

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Going back to Hob anyone has any questions or needs help w/options I will be on Hotoptionbabe.com go to home page/ click on subject xoxo

Rip Van Trader

I have a lot to learn about options, Anna, and will definitely be checking out your site more when trading is a little more leisurely.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Will be happy to help I have 13 years experience and HOB's blog is free,. there is also a member side for higher frequency trading
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Rip, she is good at what she specializes in… and that's options. I've learned a lot about the different strategies from her on options. As you can see from yesterday's action, and today's action, she played both directions, and was right.

I play a little longer term and have to ride out the swings. She gets in and out of each swing, and plays the market on a much shorter time frame. You can learn a lot from her.

Rip Van Trader

Yes, I can see that Anna is very good and would welcome the tutelage.

Thanks, Anna, for your warm invitation!

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

You are most welcome look forward to being of service

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

thanks Red, we spent many hours discussing options my passion

jimhobson

Anna I do not see the sunbject xoxo on the site. When i put xoxo in search i get some outdated posts,

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

No Jim that's not what I meant the last post was

http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/9-es-vindicator-u…
I was blowing hugs & kisses

jimhobson

I am a very black and white person.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

teeheheheheh

Rip Van Trader

I'm thinking that maybe the H&S isn't going to happen. That would make for an 80% retracement for the UK exchange which doesn't seem likely.

Rip Van Trader

Correction: It would be more like 60%. Still seems unlikely, but I guess more possible.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

Buy Into Fear And Get Paid
http://slopeofhope.com/

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

I did I did

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Chop, chop, chop, chop… soon the grass will be mowed, and then we will dig a deep hole to plant some new seeds to grow.

monicadern

Hopefully before you and I are buried alive!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

jimhobson

Iam not sure if that is a bearish or bullish statement.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Bearish short term, as in the next 2 days. Then Bullish medium term, as in the next month.

Rip Van Trader

Hey, Red, take a look at late 2007 and early 2008. This thing could drag out much longer, up to another week and a half.

Our situation is similar to 11/13/07 and 1/8/08.

monicadern

Makes sense if the low is due on June 25th.

gcocks83

Red, you starting to sound like a farmer.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL Gman…

Farming might be the only way to find food if the GD2 actually happens in the next year. I sure hope I'm wrong on that call.

jimhobson

Spy is looking pretty weak.
Rip Van Trader

Don't know about anybody else, but while this is going on, trying to get anything else done is like trying to read a book with your hair on fire.

Looking forward to getting my life back.

monicadern

Exactly! Until they pull their bid, we are screwed.

Rip Van Trader

I'm starting to think this H&S is a ruse, not going to happen.

Just click our heels on 1090 three times and head for Tierra del Fuego.

monicadern

From your fingers to the g-ds ears! I agree but that doesn't stop the queasy feeling in my stomach

jimhobson

Bulls are going to run hard rest of day on low volume
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like the 15 minute chart worked off the overbought conditions, and is likely to go up and put in a lower tower on the histogram bar. The 60 minute should also be peaked and ready to roll over by the end of the day.

By tomorrow morning, both will be aligned together in a “peaked” condition ready to fall back down. Should be a bearish day tomorrow.
wendel

I've gone long again.

SSO 36.00

Look at the daily on the shorts… FAZ,SDS,BGZ,DRV,TZA
Bad looking candles.

Should have gone long yesterday. Thought it was a reversal. The hammer on the SPX daily looks like Feb. 5.

Will buy pullbacks.
Rip Van Trader

Looks like instead of an H&S we may get a little cup and handle pointing to 1100. Cute.

This rally hasn't got enough strength to pull the skin off a chocolate pudding.

monicadern

Hope not. 1090 seems to be formidable resistance.

Rip Van Trader

Not that a C&H would mean anything. I'm waiting to see, not adding to positions.

Yes, we have spent a lot of time around 1090. It will be all the more encouraging/discouraging to whomever the market makers want to encourage/discourage when it breaks/holds.

monicadern

agreed. Caught between and rock and a hard place!
monicadern

what scares me rip is that after the last drop to 109, they ran in up to 117 before taking it down again. I definitely think we are going lower but the question is when and after how much pain?! If we break through 1090 with gusto I may have to reconsider my positions.

Rip Van Trader

I think everybody and his brother is going to be expecting a run to 1130 but we will clunk our heads on the 200 dma. Or, we will go down to form the right shoulder on the H&S… and never come back, or run to 1130 and drop like a rock. It's difficult to tell.

One thing that is fairly certain is that there should be an opportunity to cover or hedge at 1065, only we may never see it again soon what with the bad employment numbers and all.

At every turn, the market makers check the house, then decide what to do, including another run at 1200. I'm feeling pretty good that bears seem to be in the minority right now.

jimhobson

Certainly seems like the volume after yesterday is anemic except at open.

Red may be correct about tomorrow and friday as sell days. if i had a bit more confidence iwould add to some shorts now and get out friday.

wendel

I'm expecting this to run all the way up to at least a higher high.

monicadern

Wendel, you are not going to scare us out of our positions! We will scare ourselves first!

wendel

Monica…. I do not want to scare you out of your position at all.

I'm just as concerned about my position as you are yours.

One of us will be correct though.

monicadern

I guess that's the good and bad thing!

SC

I got several models suggesting just that.

Door #1 : Oct 2008

Door #2 : Feb 2010 + a dozen other similar cases.

All the indexes are gearing up to break their respective 'controlling teal lines” . Once that is done, then the confirmation for the May 20 Panic signal is in.

P.S. This is not an EVIL attempt to control what others do. In case there is another episode of delusional paranoia outbreak. LOL

monicadern

HA HA!!!!! Thanks SC.

SC

SPY 110.5 is very important. It is the current controlling teal line now. Above it, bear case weakens significantly. Failing at there, bear parties. If the market breaks above it, then best to watch till it comes back down before adding to shorts. Anything above it, is very dangerous for the bears, especially inlight of the May20 Panic signal.

I wish I had been watching the teal line more deligently. It would have helped me with being in tune with the market more accurately. Its usefulness with drop significantly when the market goes sideway. But until then, it rules.

monicadern

thanks sc. if we cross above it i will cover my shorts. how do i figure out how the teal line changes on a daily basis?
SC

If you want to fight off EVIL attempt to control you, then go with answer A, if not, answer B.

A. People should just do what they want.

B. Plot the hourly SPY. Add a 100 period Weighted Moving Average. That is a very good approximation of Sun's controlling teal line at the moment. (Oh and be prepared to be submit to evil control now. LOL)
monicadern

thank you! it's anything but evil

Rip Van Trader

In 2002, the exchanges began reporting trading volumes 1000 times higher than previously, with no explanation given. Sometimes I wonder if there are 999 fake trades to each real one, like playing bingo in a room packed with shills.

Sometimes I wonder if they have meetings at Ameritrade trying to figure out how to beat me out of a few bucks.

“OK, let's disconnect his web session now.”
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

Thursday is usually a down day, lately. I have conflicting signals going into this Thursday.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 60 minute chart is peaking now, and we should sell off tomorrow from it.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

New falsie 107.78

monicadern

Thanks Anna! Not sure that is a real falsie like my boobies!

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

heheheheh LOL it looks like it is

monicadern

gracias muchacha.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

here we go…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 15 and 60 minute charts are now line up together, and are pointing down. Selling should continue into tomorrow.
jimhobson

We gonna sell off already today?? My charts are lying to me

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Don't know, but pressure is building again to the downside.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

Should bounce around 107.78 area

monicadern

does it always stop at the print?

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

we tagged the spy falsie to 107.779 how close can you get !! Could retest that or blow through it

monicadern

didn't even see it happen. wow! well let's see.

http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

should retest mon
monicadern

thanks! I wonder if they have fun trading with themselves
http://www.optionsblackboard.com/ Anna

They do Monica they do!! ahahahha
monicadern

bounce is right.

jimhobson

Looks like a stage 1 consolidation forming. Its a question of how long and when to go long I guess.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like we got our gap fill from this morning, now let's see what she does…
wendel

Waiting to see if the bears have the strength to take out the highs on the shorts on the daily candles. SDS, BGZ, FAZ, DRV, TZA
Rip Van Trader

Boy, Red, was today's column aptly named!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Ok gang,

The daily chart is neutral right now… meaning that it not pushing the market down anymore, or starting to push it up yet either. It's close to rolling back up, and should be there by this Friday.

The 60 is overbought now, and starting to rollover. The 15 is already below the zero line, and could roll back up at any time, or sink lower with the 60 pushing it down.

Market direction is basically unknown right now? A great job's number tomorrow could gap us up, or a bad one could tank us down. Hard to say, but I'm still short.

It's a bear flag on the 15, but a possible bull flag on the 60… don't know yet? But the downward sloping trendline of the 60 chart is still holding the market down for now.

monicadern

sounds like 1/2 dozen or 6 the other! i am staying short. thanks red.

monicadern

its about to get interesting!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like Trapped Bulls now…
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Lovin' this action now…. Go Bears!

monicadern

might sell some at your print red.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

How do you get a thousand Bulls across rope bridge spanning two large mountains?

Answer: You don't! Many will just jump off the cliff into the abyss!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We bounce right off this downward sloping trendline. Amazing…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

That chart … it would be completely insane if that happens by Friday like the chart suggests.

IWM ($RUT) was green for the day. Don't be fooled by the late day bearishness! I think it was an ABC wave 4. Wave 5 should get 1195+, and activate the IHS.

DTO put in a red candle, as expected.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I didn't label it Dread. But yeah… that would be insane to go back up to 1140 by Friday. I think we will fall back in the channel and put in another low, but there are both bullish and bearish counts at this point.

Al

yesterday's action was to fill gap, downtrend remain, Red.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

For now it does Al… Tomorrow needs to start back down, or we could have too wait until next week for the low to be put in? Hard too say at this point?
AS2009

Only thing is will PPT let the mkt crash into the holiday …. media is already so bearish …. if the mkt falls into the holiday, you can bet people will not be spending … and PPT doesn't want that

monicadern

well that's not good for us!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No Monica, it's not…

But, it could fail too. That's only a forecast… and it's not set in stone.
jimhobson

I thought you held on to your shorts.

i am a very happy camper. But it is the lightest short position I have had in some time. Glad I did not go long.

jimhobson

I cannot believe this.

Turbo Tim

think they want to keep 10,000 for today, Executive Order from Sec. of Treasury from EU, where he is teaching manipulation and stress tests
Rip Van Trader

My SDS has an inverted H&S, too (if you count pre-market). It ran up on very high volume. Hmmm, which is correct, SPX or SDS?

jimhobson

sds is the 2x ultra short, spx I believe is just s&p spxu is 3x ultra of s&P

Rip Van Trader

Yeah, I'm in the wrong vehicle for maximum gain (or loss).

I did pick up some TZA shares and puts today for a little more oomph.

Will have to go with SPXU for the bear market in July.

wendel

FAZ is a nice one with zip.

I'll be doing FAZ, DRV, TZA, BGZ for sure on the July bear turn.

Rip Van Trader

Zip, lol, I like that. I had some AAPL puts that had a lot of zip, but I got faked out of them. They're too expensive now that people know AAPL is mortal.

jimhobson

I got stopped out of my spxu this am. But my tza and typ stayed w/ it.

i am not happy about the stop out I was way up but now it will be hard to get back in.

Rip Van Trader

We're probably looking at a long forced uphill march to form the right shoulder of the H&S starting tomorrow morning, and to 1140 thereafter according to some, so you should have a chance to get in.

Somehow I feel that something will trash the completion of the H&S, like unemployment numbers, global cooling, a solar flare, etc. We'll see.

monicadern

Thank g-d this day is over! Despite my short positions, I only eeked out $75 VIX kills.
Earl of

Carl at day’s end:

1065-1095 estimate for today (30 points)
1063.25–1089.50 actual range today (26.25 points )
Market was 1-5 points below Carl’s range.
For the past 10 days, average actual range is 26.8 points

Trades: No Trades
Grade: C (lost no money)

In the past 10 trading days, Carl has taken just one trade, a loss of 7.25 points.

gcocks83

That is an interesting stat on trading range for past 10 days.

Earl of

Lots of motion. Seems it ought to be easy to buy and sell later and make money. Ought to be.

wendel

Do you think are fake prints?

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/nasdaqlastsale.aspx?…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Maybe? I posted that today, and we did tag it at the end of the day. Doesn't mean it's going to rallying in the morning of course, but it could be the target on the way back up… which could happen tomorrow or Friday?

AS2009

Red – what did you post today – sorry were there some other fake prints this am ?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

AS2009

Wow – almost there – missed seeing this one … maybe we start capturing these in the post up top as edits during the day

Today AH there are prints all the way to 109- 109.4
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, that could be our upside target? But, I think we will sell off first, and then rally back to those prints.

ronwilker

can someone explain why this is a fake print? sorry but i'm new to trading and learning a lot on this site. thanks!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Ron,

It's hard to tell if they are just late fills, or fake. It's just when you are seeing the charts turn in that direction, just keep that target in mind. Nothing is written in stone, saying that each print will be the target. But again, when you are going in that direction, you should look for a tag of that level to be hit.

monicadern

red, I THINK the volume on that falsie makes it a real falsie

monicadern

yes they are. thank you.

http://crashthemachine.wordpress.com/ pezhead9000

monkey for brains says: me no sure, me wait on sideline

jimhobson

One smart ape man

Earl of

We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
TZA opened down 1.1%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.9% at it’s high, and closed down 0.6%.

AmericanBulls had TNA with an unlikely but possible BUY today. TNA was up 0.39%. Not enough to trigger a buy signal, so TNA will remain a possible buy for tomorrow.

AmericanBulls had TZA as a Wait today (Confirmed Sell yesterday). And TZA was down 0.6%, so TZA will be a Wait again for tomorrow.

Volume for TZA today was 5% below it’s 1 month average. Bad for TZA.
Volume for TNA today was 13% above it’s 1 month average.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 1.7% with TZA down 0.6%. No divergence.

TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, up 2, now down 1 day. Choppy, and went no where at all the last 4 days. Not good for TZA.

The low for TZA was from 20 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.01, 32% higher. Good for TZA.

Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 49.0 to 53.9 (+4.9) while TZA was up 0.39%. No divergence.

MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell sharply to the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA) then bounced to end the day roughly flat. The fast MACD line is pointing down, the slow line is still rising. 2 days ago was the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal, but frankly it seems busted. Good for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a dogi candle that closed a bit above yesterday. MACD is falling sharply. Good for TZA.

TZA had a much lower high & much lower low & slightly lower close (Good for TZA)

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$13,442 million flowing out of the market 3 days ago.
$ 232 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$ 2,671 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 3,708 million flowing into the market today.
Bad for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, No guess for TZA for tomorrow. TZA closed in roughly the same place in 4 of the past 5 days. Wild gyrations going no where.
Earl of

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA was an (unlikely) possible buy for today, was up 0.5%, and remains a possible buy for tomorrow.

TZA was a Wait today (from a Confirmed Sell yesterday). TA dropped 0.5% and remains a Wait for tomorrow.

Two recent TZA Buy signals have been successful:
Buy at $5.54, sell at $6.34, up 14.4%
Buy at $6.10, sell at $7.63, up 25.1%

Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
SLV(silver)
UCO(2x Oil)
ERX(3x energy)
DRI
SPY
DRV (-3x RE)
EPV (-2x Europe)

The list to avoid:
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
USO(oil)
AAPL
DIA
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
EWX(emerging mkts)
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
DZZ (-2x Gold)

The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT)
UUP(US Dollar)
GOOG
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DXD (-2x DOW30)

The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
AMZN
GS
QQQQ
ERY (-3x energy)

The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: none
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: QLD (2x QQQQ)

Summary: Fairly Bearish

New Sells today on IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), EWG(Germany), EWQ(France), EWU(England)

New Buys today on DRV (-3x RE), EPV (-2x Europe)

Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Avoid TZA, possible (but unlikely) buy of TNA
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