Bull Trap, Bear Squeeze…

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Hard reversal on oversold 15 minute chart...

On Monday, at the close, the 15 minute and 60 minute charts aligned up together pointing down.  That caused the massive sell off into the close and afterhours session.  Tuesday opened up with a gap down to 1040 spx, and struggle to get back higher early on.

But in the afternoon the 15 minute and 60 minute chart aligned up together once again... but this time pointing up.  This caused the short squeeze into the close, and higher afterhours numbers.  Many bulls went long here and will probably have a chance to get out in the morning tomorrow, as the 60 minute chart is still pointing up.

But, the 15 is now overbought and will roll back down when the 60 is peaked.  I expect that to happen in the first few hours of the day.  Once it rolls, the 15 minute chart will follow.  Then once again all 5 time frames will be pointing down again.  I expect the 1040 low to be taken out on this next move down.

Nothing has really changed to make me be bullish on the market.  The Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts are still going down, and will push this market down hard when the 60 and 15 re-align back down.  The market is still stuck in a downward sloping channel, and it will have to gap up out of it tomorrow to gain more traction to the upside.

If it's able to gap out of the channel, it will find another wall of resistance from a different downward sloping trendline around 1100 spx, and that's assuming it's able to go through the horizontal resistance line at 1090 spx.  Since the 60 minute chart is more powerful then the 15 minute, it's possible that a run for 1090 could happen.  But first it must gap out of the channel it's currently in.

I just don't see that happening tomorrow.   I see a flat open, and some chopping sideways action until the 60 minute chart gets overbought.  Then I see another move down coming.  I now see the writing on the wall, and for those with a keen eye, they also shall see.

So, I wish all you bulls a bears the best success possible.

Red

P.S. Someone asked me if the fake prints work and how accurate they are.  Monday night I caught one, but didn't think it would play out today, as it was too high from the gap down that occurred.  So I went short close to the open, instead of waiting, and getting a much better entry on the rally back up.  That's the emotional part that I'm still working on, as learning to trust what I see in the charts is the hardest part.  It clearly showed me that it was oversold, and should rally up some... and of course the print told me the target, but I didn't listen.

Still learning I am...

215 COMMENTS

  1. If this was a wave 1 of 5, the wave 2 retrace should have stopped at 1065 (50%) or 1071 (61.8%). The /es has taken out the equivalent of nearly 1086, which is still larger than the next higher retracement level. Technically, yes, anything short of Friday's high would still make this a wave 2. But when there is greater than a 78% retrace, the odds suggest that it is something else.

    • So what are your thought on tomorrow Dread? If the print in the picture plays out to the downside, then that could be a “B” wave down in an “ABC” move up to 1090 or 1100 spx.

      • Hard to say, given how much of this move will play out in the futures. I think a maximum for tomorrow is in the neighborhood of 1095-1100. I think we will gap up to as high as 1090 (end of wave 3), spending most of the day in a meandering wave 4 before a squeeze into the close. That will be “A”, with “B” to come on Thursday. “C” should finish by Monday.

        There is a lot that can happen between now and then, however.

        Financials look extremely bullish today, and I think they are leading this move. $spx is lagging.

        • That is possible, but in order for that to happen… the market must gap up out of this falling channel. Futures are falling back down now, as I type this. No gap up tomorrow means we will still be in the channel, and I'd expect a lower low to happen.

          • Yes, that's possible.

            Alternatively, forget about channels for a moment. Just look at the candlestick on $spx. Zoom out one year, and look for a similar candle — you'll find one at the Feb. lows/reversal day. I don't see any others like it.

            Here's another chart:

            http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

            When DTO paints a black candle, odds strongly favor downside continuation.

          • Looking at that chart, I would definitely agree with you. It looks pretty clear cut, and simple too me. I would short it, no questions asked.

            But, that doesn't mean for sure that the spx will go up. Yes, oil is a big player in it, but there are others too. Hard to say for sure, as there are a lot of mixed signals.

            Read Cobra's blog too, he's still bearish…

          • The correlation between spot oil and $spx is .9 (1 being perfect). Would you take 90% odds?

            Granted, the black candle isn't perfect. I have at least one “miss” on that chart.

            I am very familiar with Cobra's blog. He's not wrong to suggest that you short any bounce in $spx until proven wrong. What's different? The black candle in DTO is different.

          • I won't disagree with that… black candles are very accurate reversal patterns. But, we are both just guessing based on past history, using technical analysis, and pattern formation.

            I'm sure that they are out to trick everyone, so they can take all the money… from the bulls and bears alike. LOL

          • I don't doubt that we are near a bottom… we are very, very close. I'm just not sure that we are there yet? Maybe? I think when the market is close to a top or bottom, the signals get equally mixed, so as to confuse as many people as possible.

            I'm definitely showing bottoming signals, but my gut tells me this is just a trap… for the bulls. I know I've been wrong many times in the past, and I could be wrong on this one too.

            But today just seemed like an ordinary day… as in “NO Panic”. You have too admit that it's awful odd to bottom without panic… meaning “capitulation”. Then all those 6's in closing prices I posted has me spooked that they are still sending out a message.

            Then reading Raymond Merriman's weekly post on Astrology (on my blogroll) is also negative until June 25th…. remember that Wilshire chart I posted? What if June 25th is the market bottom?

            You could be right, as I see your point clearly. From a technical basis, this market looks like it could be bottomed? But, I'm going to stay short and see what bearish Thursday and Friday bring.

      • Red I think something like what you are describing is likely, look at 1106 as a possible level of interest. This “UP” wave in my opinion will probably be more of a sideways wave that corrects more in time than it does in price. (I'm talking over the next week or so)

        Talk to you soon,

        EWE

    • Dreadwin,

      I believe we have just completed a wave A down from the April highs, we are now going to experience a wave B which will be sideways to slightly up, after which we will see another large leg down. After all this is done we should resume the bull market from the March 2009 lows. There are detailed charts and explanations on my site http://www.Elliott-Wave-Education.com

      • A 5 day move to 1100, 1125 seems reasonable to work off the overbought condition. After that? No idea. But if Shanghai has indeed set a bottom, I think that we have as well. What are your alternate wave counts like?

    • If you signed up for BAM Investors free trial, they have oil going down to 55 in June, and Gold going to 888… plus they have spx going down to 529, which is way too bearish for my thinking…

      Did I just say that's too bearish? What's wrong with me? LOL

  2. Another friend emailed me this… and not the friend you are all thinking of. He was able to notice something I missed, and if you are a “believer” then you can see that danger is still ahead….

    Quote….

    The New York Stock Composite closed at 6666 to day (if one rounds the 4th number) and at one point I saw the Dow down 99.66 at 9966 and I saw the SP at 1066 and 1069 and the 50 day average of $RUT is at 696

    End Quote…

  3. Whoa man. I'd say, i have visited more than 50 blogs today and yours is the ONLY blog that is NOT even considering the possibility of a bottom here. I am completely with you on this one man.

    “I expect the 1040 low to be taken out on this next move down.”
    This is exactly my point too.

    If you look at the same chart of SPX using line chart rather than candlesticks, you will see a horrible looking broken chart. Just when you use a candlestick you start seeing hammers and divergences etc. Close being the ONLY important thing on the chart, a line chart gives better picture i guess. 🙂

    Thank you for your wonderful analysis.

  4. Red, I just realized that 2012 is the boiling point. Boy am I slow 2012 = 212! Anyway, I think you are right that we go up, test containment for a few hours and plunge. I am going to stay away from the computer for a while so I don't have to endure the interim pain.

  5. I expect that we will bounce off 1090 early and spend much of the day correcting the rally, to resume it later. Pivot point is 1063 so I think that's where we'll go.

    I'm a little torn on this, but I don't like my inventory as well as I could and would like to realign. I think I will partially cover at 106X and buy back in at EOD or tomorrow.

    No guts, no glory!

      • You could be right. Actually, I reconsidered after my last post. If we go up, I'll buy more puts. Otherwise, I'll sweat it out.

      • That is the perplexing problem. I got stopped out last friday and had a tough time getting back in.

        But do you ride it if a shoulder decides to form and we head to 1250?

  6. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1065-95. I think yesterday's low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see a series of 20-30 point swings up and down within the 106–1100 range over the next few days. Once the market stabilizes a move to 1300 will begin.

    1070.50 – 1185.75 range last night (15.25 points)
    1065-1095 estimate for today (30 points)
    average actual range last 10 days has been 25.7 points

    1082 currently, so estimate is -17 to +13 from here (a bit bearish)

  7. Looks we are going to get the gap up. Surprising since all the oscillators especially on 60 are pointing down.

    So are we consolidating to for a base for a right shoulder or not. Normally i would be inclined to think this is just respite for bears that took profits and not a signal yet to go long for a shoulder.

    but I do not want to bleed so I may exit my shorts w/ little loss and wait. Not my preference since the only real signal are on 5 minute where averages are bullishly aligned.

    Still cannot beleive the bulls had the balls to pull yesterday off.

    • I don't get the shoulder idea. Do you mean for a long-market top? I think the shoulder will come when this correction is complete.

      For parallels to where I believe we are right now, check out 11/13/07 and 1/8/08. It looks like we are rallying before a third leg down. How high will we go? 1109 would be high enough based on the 1/07 case.

      Safest course would be to wait it out.

  8. While we could have a pullback to 106 spy, and then another push up to 1100 spx, I believe we still need to go back down and make a double bottom for the QQQQ's before the bottom is in on the market

    • trend is down a nd a RS is within the down trend. But it can drive us shorts nuts in the shorterm. And then if we are wrong???

      • You either have a conviction or you don't trade. If you keep second guessing yourself you will get whipsawed. Have a plan of action from the start.

        • Monica you are absolutely correct IMO. But i am a retired Army Officer that has been in combat many times.

          You can plan and plan but when the bullets fly plans change quickly and you must adapt.

          In this instance iam not all in my short positions so i may ride a little longer.

          This am i saw several” experts talking about runs to 1100-1120. Only Red sees a continuation in the short term down. So i am adjusting my stops.

          • if you listen to 100 people, you will get 100 answers. either you are a short term trader (day), a medium term trader (swing), or a long term trader (more like me) so you have to figure out what works best for you. But, you can't switch between all of them or you will get killed.

          • Again i agree. I consider myself a swing trade also.

            But hanging on when averages are moving and can change the trend can also kill you.

            today will be very see if the bulls can effect average changes on the 60 minute

          • The daily chart is now showing it's first signs of turning back up. So, today belongs to the bulls. Tomorrow and Friday belongs to the Bears. We should have our low in this week.

            Then I believe Bulls will run her until the end of June… with up's and downs along the way of course.

          • It could start today, but the big move down should be tomorrow. Both the 15 and 60 are pointing up and rising with strength now. The daily isn't putting any downward pressure now, as it's trading sideways and trying to hook back up.

            It's coming though. Tomorrow will be our day, and maybe Friday too? I think next week will be up, as the daily will have put in a nice hook pointing up by this Friday. That will give lot's of strength to the bulls next week.

    • Yeah, it looks to be at a TL. I just bought some TZA puts (didn't have enough puts). I will buy more if/when they get cheaper.

  9. Saw one of your fake prints yesterday morning at the chaos, believe it was 1072. Filed it away, damn if that was not close at the end

  10. My drawing charts are 15 minutes behind.

    Initial volume spike seems done and RSi seems to be wanting to turn??

    Is it wishfull??

  11. BAD NEWS – fake print on the VIX at 24.10. I can see it on my ameritrade candlestick 5 minute chart but I don't know how to copy it? Nor do I know how to look at the volume?

    • THank you but how do you know what the volume is? Do you think this is a real one and how do you know whether the move comes now or later?

  12. perhaps the “false print” vix at 24 or so (another 5 pts down) coincides with 1100 on the mini esp (200dma) or 1110 the gap fill

    I'll be watching jobless claims tomorrow. two bad figures in a row is a bummer for the bulls. But on the other hand jobless claims are not a big mover.

    • The consumer 60 number yesterday may have been the catalyst.

      It was surprising but I believe it was falsified.

      i see more contraction locally. Tourism is getting killed here.

    • yes I think so Ben, and remember those claims real or not might be good! I just try and make $$$ both ways. I prefer down 😉

  13. We all know that Thursday's have been the most bearish day of the week for quite some time now. I'm expecting them to actually tell the truth on the job's data tomorrow, which will cause some selling to occur.

    They left a gap this morning that needs to be filled, and they still haven't put in a double bottom on the Q's. I believe they will tag 41.55 or lower, before going higher to put in the right shoulder that everyone is looking for.

  14. Hey Anna, your on Dragon's site.. cool… I know your trading.. don't reply back.. will chat with you in the morning.. or this evening.. Your site is members only.. the boys can't pull you up either.. I just called them to let them all know your on Red's site.. so their switching twitter sites.to the..Red Dragon's, hopefully as I am typing.. .So, hope to catch you later tonight here at the Dragons Den, or in the morning OK.. gotta go catch some ZZZZZZZZzzzz'z's have a good day everyone….

    • No Flipper its not members only you have to click on the subject line and takes you to disqus babe! 🙂
      Don't switch Flipper email me 🙂

  15. I'm thinking that maybe the H&S isn't going to happen. That would make for an 80% retracement for the UK exchange which doesn't seem likely.

    • Correction: It would be more like 60%. Still seems unlikely, but I guess more possible.

  16. Don't know about anybody else, but while this is going on, trying to get anything else done is like trying to read a book with your hair on fire.

    Looking forward to getting my life back.

      • I'm starting to think this H&S is a ruse, not going to happen.

        Just click our heels on 1090 three times and head for Tierra del Fuego.

        • From your fingers to the g-ds ears! I agree but that doesn't stop the queasy feeling in my stomach 🙂

  17. Looks like the 15 minute chart worked off the overbought conditions, and is likely to go up and put in a lower tower on the histogram bar. The 60 minute should also be peaked and ready to roll over by the end of the day.

    By tomorrow morning, both will be aligned together in a “peaked” condition ready to fall back down. Should be a bearish day tomorrow.

  18. I've gone long again.

    SSO 36.00

    Look at the daily on the shorts… FAZ,SDS,BGZ,DRV,TZA
    Bad looking candles.

    Should have gone long yesterday. Thought it was a reversal. The hammer on the SPX daily looks like Feb. 5.

    Will buy pullbacks.

  19. Looks like instead of an H&S we may get a little cup and handle pointing to 1100. Cute.

    This rally hasn't got enough strength to pull the skin off a chocolate pudding.

      • Not that a C&H would mean anything. I'm waiting to see, not adding to positions.

        Yes, we have spent a lot of time around 1090. It will be all the more encouraging/discouraging to whomever the market makers want to encourage/discourage when it breaks/holds.

        • what scares me rip is that after the last drop to 109, they ran in up to 117 before taking it down again. I definitely think we are going lower but the question is when and after how much pain?! If we break through 1090 with gusto I may have to reconsider my positions.

          • I think everybody and his brother is going to be expecting a run to 1130 but we will clunk our heads on the 200 dma. Or, we will go down to form the right shoulder on the H&S… and never come back, or run to 1130 and drop like a rock. It's difficult to tell.

            One thing that is fairly certain is that there should be an opportunity to cover or hedge at 1065, only we may never see it again soon what with the bad employment numbers and all.

            At every turn, the market makers check the house, then decide what to do, including another run at 1200. I'm feeling pretty good that bears seem to be in the minority right now.

    • Certainly seems like the volume after yesterday is anemic except at open.

      Red may be correct about tomorrow and friday as sell days. if i had a bit more confidence iwould add to some shorts now and get out friday.

    • Wendel, you are not going to scare us out of our positions! We will scare ourselves first!

      • Monica…. I do not want to scare you out of your position at all.

        I'm just as concerned about my position as you are yours.

        One of us will be correct though.

    • I got several models suggesting just that.

      Door #1 : Oct 2008

      Door #2 : Feb 2010 + a dozen other similar cases.

      All the indexes are gearing up to break their respective 'controlling teal lines” . Once that is done, then the confirmation for the May 20 Panic signal is in.

      P.S. This is not an EVIL attempt to control what others do. In case there is another episode of delusional paranoia outbreak. LOL

        • SPY 110.5 is very important. It is the current controlling teal line now. Above it, bear case weakens significantly. Failing at there, bear parties. If the market breaks above it, then best to watch till it comes back down before adding to shorts. Anything above it, is very dangerous for the bears, especially inlight of the May20 Panic signal.

          I wish I had been watching the teal line more deligently. It would have helped me with being in tune with the market more accurately. Its usefulness with drop significantly when the market goes sideway. But until then, it rules.

          • thanks sc. if we cross above it i will cover my shorts. how do i figure out how the teal line changes on a daily basis?

          • If you want to fight off EVIL attempt to control you, then go with answer A, if not, answer B.

            A. People should just do what they want.

            B. Plot the hourly SPY. Add a 100 period Weighted Moving Average. That is a very good approximation of Sun's controlling teal line at the moment. (Oh and be prepared to be submit to evil control now. LOL)

  20. In 2002, the exchanges began reporting trading volumes 1000 times higher than previously, with no explanation given. Sometimes I wonder if there are 999 fake trades to each real one, like playing bingo in a room packed with shills.

    Sometimes I wonder if they have meetings at Ameritrade trying to figure out how to beat me out of a few bucks.

    “OK, let's disconnect his web session now.”

  21. Looks like a stage 1 consolidation forming. Its a question of how long and when to go long I guess.

  22. Waiting to see if the bears have the strength to take out the highs on the shorts on the daily candles. SDS, BGZ, FAZ, DRV, TZA

  23. Ok gang,

    The daily chart is neutral right now… meaning that it not pushing the market down anymore, or starting to push it up yet either. It's close to rolling back up, and should be there by this Friday.

    The 60 is overbought now, and starting to rollover. The 15 is already below the zero line, and could roll back up at any time, or sink lower with the 60 pushing it down.

    Market direction is basically unknown right now? A great job's number tomorrow could gap us up, or a bad one could tank us down. Hard to say, but I'm still short.

    It's a bear flag on the 15, but a possible bull flag on the 60… don't know yet? But the downward sloping trendline of the 60 chart is still holding the market down for now.

  24. think they want to keep 10,000 for today, Executive Order from Sec. of Treasury from EU, where he is teaching manipulation and stress tests

  25. My SDS has an inverted H&S, too (if you count pre-market). It ran up on very high volume. Hmmm, which is correct, SPX or SDS?

      • Yeah, I'm in the wrong vehicle for maximum gain (or loss).

        I did pick up some TZA shares and puts today for a little more oomph.

        Will have to go with SPXU for the bear market in July. 🙂

        • FAZ is a nice one with zip.

          I'll be doing FAZ, DRV, TZA, BGZ for sure on the July bear turn. 🙂

          • Zip, lol, I like that. I had some AAPL puts that had a lot of zip, but I got faked out of them. They're too expensive now that people know AAPL is mortal.

        • I got stopped out of my spxu this am. But my tza and typ stayed w/ it.

          i am not happy about the stop out I was way up but now it will be hard to get back in.

          • We're probably looking at a long forced uphill march to form the right shoulder of the H&S starting tomorrow morning, and to 1140 thereafter according to some, so you should have a chance to get in.

            Somehow I feel that something will trash the completion of the H&S, like unemployment numbers, global cooling, a solar flare, etc. We'll see.

  26. Thank g-d this day is over! Despite my short positions, I only eeked out $75 🙂 VIX kills.

  27. Carl at day’s end:

    1065-1095 estimate for today (30 points)
    1063.25–1089.50 actual range today (26.25 points )
    Market was 1-5 points below Carl’s range.
    For the past 10 days, average actual range is 26.8 points

    Trades: No Trades
    Grade: C (lost no money)

    In the past 10 trading days, Carl has taken just one trade, a loss of 7.25 points.

  28. We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
    TZA opened down 1.1%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.9% at it’s high, and closed down 0.6%.

    AmericanBulls had TNA with an unlikely but possible BUY today. TNA was up 0.39%. Not enough to trigger a buy signal, so TNA will remain a possible buy for tomorrow.

    AmericanBulls had TZA as a Wait today (Confirmed Sell yesterday). And TZA was down 0.6%, so TZA will be a Wait again for tomorrow.

    Volume for TZA today was 5% below it’s 1 month average. Bad for TZA.
    Volume for TNA today was 13% above it’s 1 month average.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 1.7% with TZA down 0.6%. No divergence.

    TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, up 2, now down 1 day. Choppy, and went no where at all the last 4 days. Not good for TZA.

    The low for TZA was from 20 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.01, 32% higher. Good for TZA.

    Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 49.0 to 53.9 (+4.9) while TZA was up 0.39%. No divergence.

    MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell sharply to the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA) then bounced to end the day roughly flat. The fast MACD line is pointing down, the slow line is still rising. 2 days ago was the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal, but frankly it seems busted. Good for TZA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a dogi candle that closed a bit above yesterday. MACD is falling sharply. Good for TZA.

    TZA had a much lower high & much lower low & slightly lower close (Good for TZA)

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
    $13,442 million flowing out of the market 3 days ago.
    $ 232 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
    $ 2,671 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
    $ 3,708 million flowing into the market today.
    Bad for TZA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, No guess for TZA for tomorrow. TZA closed in roughly the same place in 4 of the past 5 days. Wild gyrations going no where.

  29. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA was an (unlikely) possible buy for today, was up 0.5%, and remains a possible buy for tomorrow.

    TZA was a Wait today (from a Confirmed Sell yesterday). TA dropped 0.5% and remains a Wait for tomorrow.

    Two recent TZA Buy signals have been successful:
    Buy at $5.54, sell at $6.34, up 14.4%
    Buy at $6.10, sell at $7.63, up 25.1%

    Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
    GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
    SLV(silver)
    UCO(2x Oil)
    ERX(3x energy)
    DRI
    SPY
    DRV (-3x RE)
    EPV (-2x Europe)

    The list to avoid:
    IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
    USO(oil)
    AAPL
    DIA
    EWG(Germany)
    EWQ(France)
    EWU(England)
    EWX(emerging mkts)
    RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
    SRS (-2x RE)
    SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
    FAZ (-3x Financials)
    DZZ (-2x Gold)

    The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
    IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT)
    UUP(US Dollar)
    GOOG
    SPXU (-3x $SPX)
    QID (-2x QQQQ)
    DXD (-2x DOW30)

    The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
    AMZN
    GS
    QQQQ
    ERY (-3x energy)

    The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: none
    The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: QLD (2x QQQQ)

    Summary: Fairly Bearish

    New Sells today on IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), EWG(Germany), EWQ(France), EWU(England)

    New Buys today on DRV (-3x RE), EPV (-2x Europe)

    Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Avoid TZA, possible (but unlikely) buy of TNA

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