In the video, I say that Wednesday is another POMO day, but that's not a guarantee... only a guess. They are releasing their schedule on this coming Wednesday, but I don't know for sure that it will also be a POMO day too. However, many times the Wednesday of the opx week will be the high for the week, and then the next two days are usually flat.
Not always of course, but I've noticed that most traders have closed out their options by Wednesday and the rest of the week just chops around until the close on Friday. They will of course pin the SPY at a level that will benefit them the most. The question is... will it benefit them to sell it off because there are too many calls, or push it up (or hold flat), as there are too many puts.
In the past, there has been too many puts, so they close it up. Will this time be different?
Some things never change, as the government will always be evil and full of crooks and gangsters...
So what made me think the charts would be followed this time? Maybe because they were working just find up until last week. Everything in the charts last week pointed to a 50-100 point sell off in the market, yet the gangsters defied gravity and manipulated the market higher once again.
No one can tell me that last week was something you could foresee and forecast from reading the charts, as every indicator pointed to it rolling over. This makes it extremely difficult to gamble in the market, as the gangsters can see what you have in your hand.
Sounds unfair, sounds crooked, sounds evil, sounds hard too beat... all true, but what can you do about it? Not play the game is the only answer. At least for us option players, as going long with options will not make you money very often. The lower vix as the market rises will suck premium out the value of your options faster then Lindsay Lohan can get high!
So, you either have to buy the etf's outright (which is a whole lot of money, and out of most peoples' reach), buy a call spread (works, but how do you know what the upside target is for the call you are selling), sell a put spread to capture the high volatility priced into the option (kinda of insane, as once you finally decide to place this trade... the market crashes!), or just sit on the sidelines in cash (which isn't too bad really, as you've only lost about 10% in buying power in the decline dollar in the last several month... which is better then losing your whole position on another B.S. rally that wipes out your puts completely).
Maybe that's why the retail trader just took his money out of the market and isn't doing any investing? No one believes anything the government says, so putting your cash under your mattress seems too be back in style now. I can't say I blame them, as I'm certainly no lover of the government either. I still think we should bring back public hanging, like in the old western days. Let's string them up from a tall tree and broadcast it live on FOX News (their favorite controlled media outlet).
Well, enough ranting and raving, let's try to figure out what's coming next week (and that's a Big "TRY", as no ones really knows what kind of cards they'll be pulling out from the bottom of the deck next week).
Looking at the charts (which really don't matter anymore, but humor me), the weekly has finally started to look ready to roll over some. It's in the high 80's on the Stoc's and almost has a bearish touch on the moving averages. While I don't expect it to just roll straight over and head back down, I do expect a dip to happen, and then some choppy action until the end of the month.
Why? Because the of election on November 2nd... plain and simple. I've given up on a crash coming before the election, and will simply say that I expect the gangsters to continue pumping money into the market all month long, keeping it from crashing.
While next week could sell off, I ready doubt it as it's another opx week. I've noticed that the market tends to sell off the week after opx, but rarely the week of opx. Since we have another POMO day on Wednesday, October 13th, I'd expect a rally up on that day.
So, that means we could go down some on Monday, and possibly more on Tuesday... only to be bought back up on Wednesday. In other words... very choppy, just churning sideways in a range until the opx is over. Then a move down the following week could happen, and should happen... but will it?
Here's the thing that's been bugging me for months now... that dam upside FP of DIA 118.16! You know the bulls aren't going to stop here, just shy of the 11,000 mark... and the FP is about 11,800 on the Dow which isn't too much higher from where we are now. This leaves them about 4 weeks to get to it before the elections.
Remember, most analysts are expecting the Republicans to take back control of the house and senate, which means they will put an immediate stop the money machine. That means a big sell off (crash) should happen as the bulls won't have anymore crack to snort (maybe they can get some from Lindsay? ... sorry, I had to go there! LOL).
Now that doesn't mean that they won't eventually start printing money again, as both Republicans and Democrats are afterall... still Politicians, and once the market starts crashing they will cave in and bail it out just like the current gangsters are doing.
But, we could see our downside FP of Dow 8300 play out... if they stop the money tree for awhile? But in the meantime, that upside print is still bugging me, and until it gets filled I just don't see any big sell off sticking. Next week isn't showing me any clear direction, and the week after isn't either.
I only expect it to be the week the market corrects, because it's common to see the week after opx as the "down week", as it's happened so many times in the past. Of course there's no guarantee on that, as the only guarantee I can give you is that the government is out to steal your last dime and will succeed if you play their game too long.
I wish I had a crystal ball, so I could tell you where the market is going, but I don't. Actually, I don't need a crystal ball... I just need someone to plant a "bug" in Ben Bernankes' office, so we can here what all the gangsters are planning to do. Anyone out there want to volunteer? I didn't think so 🙁
Well, I can't really think of anything else to say? Not much going on right now. Hey! What a perfect time for a surprise crash! Nah, I had that dream last week... Wishful thinking again!