Saturday, April 20, 2024

Weekend Update – Same As It Ever Was!

Monday Update...

In the video, I say that Wednesday is another POMO day, but that's not a guarantee... only a guess.  They are releasing their schedule on this coming Wednesday, but I don't know for sure that it will also be a POMO day too.  However, many times the Wednesday of the opx week will be the high for the week, and then the next two days are usually flat.

Not always of course, but I've noticed that most traders have closed out their options by Wednesday and the rest of the week just chops around until the close on Friday.  They will of course pin the SPY at a level that will benefit them the most.  The question is... will it benefit them to sell it off because there are too many calls, or push it up (or hold flat), as there are too many puts.

In the past, there has been too many puts, so they close it up.  Will this time be different?

Red

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Some things never change, as the government will always be evil and full of crooks and gangsters...

So what made me think the charts would be followed this time?  Maybe because they were working just find up until last week.  Everything in the charts last week pointed to a 50-100 point sell off in the market, yet the gangsters defied gravity and manipulated the market higher once again.

No one can tell me that last week was something you could foresee and forecast from reading the charts, as every indicator pointed to it rolling over.  This makes it extremely difficult to gamble in the market, as the gangsters can see what you have in your hand.

Sounds unfair, sounds crooked, sounds evil, sounds hard too beat... all true, but what can you do about it?  Not play the game is the only answer.  At least for us option players, as going long with options will not make you money very often.  The lower vix as the market rises will suck premium out the value of your options faster then Lindsay Lohan can get high!

So, you either have to buy the etf's outright (which is a whole lot of money, and out of most peoples' reach), buy a call spread (works, but how do you know what the upside target is for the call you are selling), sell a put spread to capture the high volatility priced into the option (kinda of insane, as once you finally decide to place this trade... the market crashes!), or just sit on the sidelines in cash (which isn't too bad really, as you've only lost about 10% in buying power in the decline dollar in the last several month... which is better then losing your whole position on another B.S. rally that wipes out your puts completely).

Maybe that's why the retail trader just took his money out of the market and isn't doing any investing?  No one believes anything the government says, so putting your cash under your mattress seems too be back in style now.  I can't say I blame them, as I'm certainly no lover of the government either.  I still think we should bring back public hanging, like in the old western days.  Let's string them up from a tall tree and broadcast it live on FOX News (their favorite controlled media outlet).

Well, enough ranting and raving, let's try to figure out what's coming next week (and that's a Big "TRY", as no ones really knows what kind of cards they'll be pulling out from the bottom of the deck next week).

Looking at the charts (which really don't matter anymore, but humor me), the weekly has finally started to look ready to roll over some.  It's in the high 80's on the Stoc's and almost has a bearish touch on the moving averages.  While I don't expect it to just roll straight over and head back down, I do expect a dip to happen, and then some choppy action until the end of the month.

Why?  Because the of election on November 2nd... plain and simple.  I've given up on a crash coming before the election, and will simply say that I expect the gangsters to continue pumping money into the market all month long, keeping it from crashing.

While next week could sell off, I ready doubt it as it's another opx week.  I've noticed that the market tends to sell off the week after opx, but rarely the week of opx.  Since we have another POMO day on Wednesday, October 13th, I'd expect a rally up on that day.

So, that means we could go down some on Monday, and possibly more on Tuesday... only to be bought back up on Wednesday.  In other words... very choppy, just churning sideways in a range until the opx is over.  Then a move down the following week could happen, and should happen... but will it?

Here's the thing that's been bugging me for months now... that dam upside FP of DIA 118.16!  You know the bulls aren't going to stop here, just shy of the 11,000 mark... and the FP is about 11,800 on the Dow which isn't too much higher from where we are now.  This leaves them about 4 weeks to get to it before the elections.

Remember, most analysts are expecting the Republicans to take back control of the house and senate, which means they will put an immediate stop the money machine.  That means a big sell off (crash) should happen as the bulls won't have anymore crack to snort (maybe they can get some from Lindsay? ... sorry, I had to go there! LOL).

Now that doesn't mean that they won't eventually start printing money again, as both Republicans and Democrats are afterall... still Politicians, and once the market starts crashing they will cave in and bail it out just like the current gangsters are doing.

But, we could see our downside FP of Dow 8300 play out... if they stop the money tree for awhile?  But in the meantime, that upside print is still bugging me, and until it gets filled I just don't see any big sell off sticking.  Next week isn't showing me any clear direction, and the week after isn't either.

I only expect it to be the week the market corrects, because it's common to see the week after opx as the "down week", as it's happened so many times in the past.  Of course there's no guarantee on that, as the only guarantee I can give you is that the government is out to steal your last dime and will succeed if you play their game too long.

I wish I had a crystal ball, so I could tell you where the market is going, but I don't.  Actually, I don't need a crystal ball... I just need someone to plant a "bug" in Ben Bernankes' office, so we can here what all the gangsters are planning to do.  Anyone out there want to volunteer?  I didn't think so 🙁

Well, I can't really think of anything else to say?  Not much going on right now.  Hey!  What a perfect time for a surprise crash!  Nah, I had that dream last week...  Wishful thinking again!

Red

Red
Author: Red

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RDL
RDL
13 years ago

The only word out of your mouth is market crash!!! You’ve been saying that for months!!! Are you ever going to acknowledge that you could be wrong jeez!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

You must have NOT watched the video as I clearly stated that I believe we “aren’t” going to crash this month. But it will happen… when is unknown?

Jed Thrust
Jed Thrust
13 years ago

Firstly, there is no-one forcing you to visit Red’s site and listen or read to his musings.

Secondly, if you are asking Red to consider that he might be wrong, then you must also ask the Government, the Fed and all the “talking heads” to consider that they might also be wrong. After all, if you and I ran our household finances that way that our Government does, we would be considered criminals and no doubt incarcerated….

Consistantly spending more than you earn has never, ever (in the history of all mankind) led to long term financial and economic success, and these days (or years, or decades) of profligacy will never be any different.

To use the escaped criminal analogy: he is going to get caught – might be today, tomorrow or in 15 years, but he will get caught.

RDL
RDL
13 years ago

Oh yeah?! You kept on saying black monday crash coming every freaking monday!

SmallFish
SmallFish
13 years ago

Firstly, no one asked u to trade if u think the market is rigged and u cant make $ off it.

secondly, the important thing here is not whether the government or fed or other talking heads are doing the wrong thing or not. the point is how to make $ given the market conditions, with POMO or other sorts of manipulation or not. if u cant make $, then u suck.

thirdly, consistently outspending has always been the trademark of the US government. Fiscal conservative icon Ronald Reagan famously said the budget deficit didnt matter. so much for fiscal conservatism, hypocrites!

and last of all, the market can stay irrational longer than u can stay solvent.

zstock7
13 years ago

AA next year is headed above 15.75…This year, see comment below…

zstock7
13 years ago

AA short, don’t do it….
I’d wait for at least 14.30, then try a short—If that fails, then this market is really effing messed up.

zstock7
13 years ago

So, I go to get the news on AA’s earnings, and usually there’s only 3 or 4 headlines, about it…well this time, everyone and their mother’s were releasing figures–It’s just like the IKE pre-invasion of WW2, where all that mis- leading info was released to confuse the Nazi’s….
well same thing happened on AA earnings….
Thank god, I know how to kill the market Nazi’s…and I sort of got it sorted out….

zstock7
13 years ago

How is the US paying for all the debt? They are going around to all the other countries and stealing everything they own….
That’s what empires do!
Be happy, don’t worry man!

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

This market defies any logic, take a look at the NDSI. I am sure something has to give. I can’t imagine the manipulation could go any further.
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nasdaq_sentiment.htm

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Red, I don’t think the 13th is a POMO day:

The next release of the approximate purchase amount and tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 2 p.m. on October 13, 2010.

All it says is the schedule is being released. In my experience though, the market won’t fall much as long as they keep doing it. I’ll be interested to see what the schedule looks like. My guess is that operations continue until mid November…for obvious reasons. LOL.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yes, you are right. It’s didn’t say that the 13th was a POMO day, only that the schedule will be released.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Vix gapped open down 6.3% representing some serious buying at open. After Fridays close that blew me away

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The volume on the buy side wasn’t too bad those last few days Jim. They might be buying, instead of selling? Hard too tell of course, but we’ve been tricked many times before.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Anybody watching VNO (REIT) – it broke it’s april high but never continued on and is now jumping around that high mark (85.50). Not a break-out.

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

The dollar is making a bottom, the euro wants to go down. I believe QE2 is fully priced in. They just try to suck in more retail investors and mutual funds. Something is strange with the VIX, we have a breakdown but the market is not going higher so far. Sure today is a quiet day with bonds trading closed, still Cobra mentionned today should be a very bullish day. Anyhow, if we close flat today and tomorrow we get a down day allowing the vix to go back inside the bollinger band that’s a market sell signal big time.

How can they manipulate this market with no more POMO day and a rally so far based on low volume?

Let’s see what happens!

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

I would say that todays low trading volume is due to the holiday doesnt seem to be heading anywhere at this moment however there are signs that shorting has become slightly more aggresive.Although this weds news is just the release of the schedule but we have to take note that trading done this past few weeks have been nothing more then ( BUY the rumours SELL the facts ).Feds have won big time during sept i have thrown away the charts and started to question the underlying mentally of traders during the past few weeks and im just throwing this out for everyone to ponder on.

Feds have broken the (sept curse) 71 years .They have instilled so much confusion in the mindset of traders that right now no one knows where to go.Everyone even friday did exactly the oppside but WHY thats the reason we have to think its cause simply EVERYONE and i mean EVERYONE is thinking ( NAA dont worry about it if anything happens we have the feds to bail us out AGAIN ).

Its really sad to think about how many people will be caught offguard when the time comes and the bulls fall over into a pit of knives its sadder when someone is helping the bull and digging that pit (Feds) worst part about all this is that they have managed to get a hell of alot of support by people who KNOW and SEE whats going on but somehow have lost sight of logic and sanity.

In truth im riding it and milking it for all its worst cause hey to me its money i know a crash is coming.WHEN i have no idea but since everyone is going to buy now im not gonna fight against millions of traders and go against it at this point of time however im sure as hell keeping my stops tight as hell so that when it comes i have a life boat to jump onto.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I couldn’t have said it better myself…
🙂

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

HI Red
comments are NIL ?
I dont really expect a trend change until AFTER the Jan4th ECLIPSE
BUT
that wont stop a short term DIVE between now & Nov 4th
2 big cycles on 21st & 22nd see the blog comments
http://jaywiz.blogspot.com

see the graph I published for 1937-1942- compares with present
Kondratieff wave & 70 year cycle, plus the waves, & fibo highs

October is like double vulnerable in the game of Bridge
WE are holding MOST of the cards, but east has an extra TRUMP

Jay

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yep, it looks like the Fed’s have saved the gangsters once again (err… the public).

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

Hadn’t looked at this in awhile, but the 880 SMA, which acted as resistance at the 1219 high is upon us again.

http://screencast.com/t/uKfoAManb

Also approaching arc .786 resistance

http://screencast.com/t/xkNs9W3c2

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

WOW are those custom charts i have been interested in the circles but i have never understood when and how to draw them would you mind sharing some knowledge on them

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

They’re fibonacci arcs. You can google it. The idea is you place both ends on significant high/lows to show support resistance levels. Very frustrating tool, as alot has to do on the scale of your chart. Example, if I display a yearly chart vs a 2 year chart, even with identical end points, the arcs will be drawn differently.

Jason_70
13 years ago

Leo,

Here you go. Another FP for you. 🙂

WTF is going on these days with all these FP’s. Each and everyday i see so many of them all over the place. Either something is coming or these HFT’s are really screwing up the prices/pricing.
comment image

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

will they work on a smaller time frame chart i know the basic stature behind them but i cant find anything to draw them on

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks Jason…

It’s coming, but the “when” part is still unknown?

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

The Fed rescue team steps in again at the end of the day. Now we all know why they hired 400 traders. Why does the Fed need 400 traders? Now we know. The stock market is a video game and the Fed is playing with a cheat code.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Still watching the following for shorts: COH, RTH, VNO, XLK

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

I like this sentiment survey. I don’t know how they calculate it but it shows bullishness is just off the charts.
The trolls came out in force last night. The crash must be near.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Look at the reversal in the agricultural commodities or DBA or WAG in particular. They had huge volume on Friday and then did a huge reversal today. Last night, the ag commodity futures were up huge.
Crude oil couldn’t participate in the early morning rally and didn’t make a new rally high. Chevron with a microscopic range day today. I looked at $hui over the weekend and it had an ugly huge reversal bar on Thursday. Some tech stocks like CRM and Akam continuing their meltdowns. Doji days all around.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

High option volume on Xerox – 80+K. See Apr11. Chart looks like a dbl top as it’s hitting the April high

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

SPX made a new high today, ES did not. Last trend change, ES made its low two days before SPX.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh page for update…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh page for update…

Anna
13 years ago

Meh, by now they are aware of all the folks that chat about this and love to f$#k with them as far as I can see it. not gonna happen

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

We saw good selling early and put options activity increasing so i guess some are positioning for a fall. A lot of bulls out there, they buy fearlessly any dip. FOMC minutes released at 2pm, it could be interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, we got our down move to make a double bottom at 1155, and now we’re going back up. I think this will carry through into tomorrow too… unfortunately.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

that TREND change should be Imminent
Maybe today
I dont usually pay attention to such data, but
we are 3 years from Oct10th, 2007 TOP
http://jaywiz.blogspot.com
Jay

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

1st attempt to break 1155 unsuccessfull, 2nd attempt could be it if we see the dollar breaking out. I think the dollar wants to move higher as we already made a strong bottom in the last few days.What will we find out in those FOMC minutes? That could be a catalyst.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Looks like the market liked what the fed’s said this time…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow gang! The market just won’t die! It’s like Al Pacino in Scarface… you need to blast a shotgun into it to kill it.

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