Blow Off Top Tomorrow?

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Wednesday Update... a pause day as expected, but still no blow off top?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdlZpNb3Mow)

Red

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I Wish I Knew?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKqgFy-pd50)

While the pattern that the market is making is similar to previous patterns... which proceeded to have a quick spike higher in the morning and then a hard sell off afterwards, I'm not sure if history will repeat itself again this time or not?

This daily pattern looks very close to what happened in April of last year, with today resembling April 29th, and hopefully tomorrow will look like the 30th... and nice big red candle!  Will it happen... I don't know?  The 15 minute chart looks ready to turn back up and give us that early spike higher in the morning at least.

The 30 and 60 minute charts are looking might toppy right now, and should roll over by late tomorrow.  But, they could stretch this out until Friday and trade sideways while the charts reset back to bullish mode again.  With the Legatus Pilgrimage happening this February 3rd-5th, we might not see any sell off until next week.  Remember, the gangsters need time to cash their checks and launder their money through the secret Vatican banks (and other oversea banks that don't report to the IRS).

This has been a very frustrating time for bears, as every sell off gets bought back up after only one or two days down it seems.  By the time the bears get short, the sell off is already over.  The plan is simple really... just repeated squeeze all the bears until the last bear is broke, and then crash the market!  So, are all the bears broke yet?

Who knows?  I do know that the bears sure are tired of all this B.S. manipulation... that's for sure!

Moving on...

I think we could spike up on the ADP numbers (faked of course) and then sell off the rest of the day.  That's what the charts tell me, (not that they always work), but if so... then Thursday should be the larger down day with Wednesday just being the start of the sell off.

That means they could reverse back up on Friday like they did on May 3rd of last year... leaving next week setup for some really ugly selling.  This is just speculation on my part, as I try to forecast what the gangsters would do... if I were them.  The charts would support it too, and the timing of the Legatus Pilgrimage matches up as well.

So for tomorrow I'm looking for a pop in the morning and then selling the rest of the day, with more intense selling on Thursday.  Possible up day on Friday, if Wednesday and Thursday are down days.  If not, then the gangsters will just keep on pushing this piece of crap market up to wherever they please.

Hang in there bears...

Red

172 COMMENTS

  1. Hi Red…love your blog but come on now…how many times can you be wrong before you give it up? This market is not going to go down. Period.

    • $xoi is going parabolic. Shot above its upper BB today. Oil always goes nuts at the end of bull moves. Only thing is oil was down nearly two dollars but $xoi was up 2%…..

      EEM:$SPX showing that emerging markets are rolling over and soon this should spread to the dollar, commodities, and stocks..
      $Rut:$indu peaked back in December. Official bear should come when 50day drops below 200day. It’s about to occur on the Indian stock market. Kool-aid drinkers over at the bank that I have to deal with couldn’t be even more bullish. Blah!Blahing about emerging markets,munis.

  2. Are you guys getting a FP on FCX of $57.10 this am? I have it on my trading platform and on intraday premarket chart. If this is true it will pull back all the way to it’s 2010 low. Yesterday close was at $114.07!!!

  3. Volume is so light right now that buying a 100 shares of IBM would cause a 100 point rally in the Dow. Sad… truly sad! You know they will pop this higher into the close… it’s coming!

      • Yes, but I wanted the pop in the morning, not at the close. It’s now forming a big bull flag, and reseting the 30 minute back to pointing up (by the close it will). Not good for bears… as the pop could hit 1313 easily, and stay there. We need to 60 to push this market down, but it’s not looking like it wants too today.

        • RED,

          you know the gansta reptiles will do what they will do when they want to do it….if they wanted the 60 min to push the market down, they would let it happen….

          • Well, they were playing the “Tuesday down day” game for a while…maybe they’re playing the “Friday down day” game for the time being?

  4. I now see 3 FP’s of 130.83 spy, which could be a late fill? Or, it could be the close today on the fulfillment of the bull flag that the market is making right now? Hard too say, but most bull flags like the one the market is making now, should easily push it up to new highs.

    Only going to 130.83 seems awful weak too me (and unlikely). If this pops higher into the close or early tomorrow morning, we could see 1313 spx. Bummer…

    • Yes, I saw that 130.83 on the SPY. Now is there a specific rule on those fake prints or can they be an out of bid and ask range fill just about anywhere? Curious about any rules you have developed regarding them. Thanks.

  5. OK today is my EXPLODE day…..this illusion of a market is driving me nuts today………just forget about the illusion of free markets and issue quarterly where you are going to take the markets – command and control style!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ….. ok i feel better – thanks all…

  6. And did anyone notice how TIGHT dem bollinger bands are getting on the 30 min spx chart!! ouch!! if they were pants – you wouldnt be seein me in anything that tight!….. looks to me that we are going to see a move here soon…..

  7. Red,

    Markets are not reflecting reality….BDI has been heading down in a big way. I think when the markets drop…they will move down like lightning so no bears can get on. They are will be stealing from both sides.

    NOPOMO

    • Nopomo…
      I checked $BDI just minutes ago, and posted 1987 style crash just yesterday, no bears can get on…LOL…check out my post from yesterday on the other tread…

      • Just went and looked at your post. I fully agree with you. Maximum impact is to begin buying puts in the money for Feb & out of the money for the next few months out.

        If the market crashes this time…do you think they call a time out and cancel the trades as they did in May? What a sham that was..to think this is not done when something rises a few hundred %.

        Those controlling the switches firmly believe all the $$s in the market belongs to them.

        • I doubt it, it’s bursting of the bubble…someone has to step in and buy, for market to come back…if margins are maxed, margin selling alone will propagate reaction…there may be bounces, but ultimately huge selloff is in the cards…

  8. Like Red said, you missed the sell off on Friday.

    It’s like having the cheat codes to the game. You put in a code and have unlimited amount of money to use as you please. Unfortunately for us we have to play by the rules and that means we have no cheat codes and no insider information.

    The system is NOT going to change, therefore we have to change ourselves and the way we invest.

    Since the Fed is printing money should you invest in the dollar going up? No, it doesn’t make logical sense and you should place your bets on it going down.

    IMO Silver, Gold, Oil are investments you should consider as they have logical reasons to go up due to inflation.

    • JPM has the “unlimited ammo” code. Unfortunately, the only code we have access to is the “commit suicide” code.

    • I go with those things that defy logic…such as the dollar rising and precious metals falling. Those that use logic will be parted from their $$s.

    • I went long last week with a call spread play. It made a little profit, but I just prefer to go short as the vix then goes in my favor. I’ve went long other stuff too, like oil for one.

      But right now I’d rather just sit out the rallies and wait for the sell offs… even if they are only “one day wonders”, as they are still more profitable then going long (at least for me).

  9. Based on the conflicting prints, it looks like they might take it down first, then have a blow-off top in the next few days before taking it down…but it’s anyone’s interpretation…

    • Yes, they could sell it off first. I don’t know what they have planned for tomorrow? However, a failed bull flag is very bearish and should cause the market to sell off quite a bit if that happens.

      It will take many people by surprise I’m sure. So why not start the crash tomorrow… I’d be happy with that, as I’m already short.

      • Does buying the VXX count as going long?!

        Just a quick question on the VXX ETF: I have read the blurb about it, but perhaps someone can cut through the lawyer-speak for me.

        If I hold the VXX for more than a few days, do I end up with problems with it being time-sensitive? IE, if the VIX moves up and down a few points and basically ends up where it started, will my ETF reduce in value. and if so, is it much?

        Thanks.

        Jed

        • No, the price is the price… it’s only when you buy options do you experience time decay. But, any of the 2x and 3x etf’s can and do lose value over time when compared to the etf they track.

          However, it’s not severe… like options are. But over weeks and months you could lose more in those then the underlining “one time” etf that it follows.

        • Be careful with VXX. It reverse split at 14 I think up to $50.00 and you can see it already lost a lot of value.

          It has been the perfect short stock for a while. Not saying things can’t change.

  10. The all new “Bull Dog Indicator” — America’s favorite dogs, it’s funny

    It’s a Bull Market in Bulldogs, I don’t think that is Bullish from a Fundamental Viewpoint!

    Check out this chart of how America’s favorite dogs change over the last decade.

    Rottweilers, Dobermans, Shepherds, and Bulldogs all increasing in popularity. Mostly since 2005. Do you think that the average person has inkling of all the shenanigans going on?

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  11. Top of the mornin to ya RED,

    i was reading through posts from last night, and i saw the FP on the USD from PK….. well the smile that hit my face when i saw that – such a FP of beauty!!

  12. Hi guys,

    I sent Red the email about the fake print (P.K. is my real name). I told Red to check his screen because I saw it flash on my screen at work. Of course, by the time he checked it wasnt there anymore. When I got home I saw it appear again and this time had my jing software to snap a photo:

    http://screencast.com/t/yleJVkUdPjpx

    I think most people on other blogs completely disregard these prints but it is amazing to see how many times they come to fruition.

  13. Well… I’m wrong again it seems. I guess they are just going to sideways until they reset the 60 minute chart back up and then rally? So from the looks of things right now we should drift lower most of the day, putting in a higher low on the histogram bars of the 60 minute chart.

    Then I don’t know? If the non-farm payroll report is the usual manipulated lies, then a rally back up tomorrow could happen. If the report is bad, then we tank. Who knows at this point?

      • That lines up almost perfectly with what the forex guys are looking for in the 100% retracement of the Euro from the last 3 week move.

  14. hey does anybody have the range today for the VIX?? i am having trouble with my platform, and i think it got awfully close to that FP of 17.14…..

  15. There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.

  16. There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.

  17. looks like.. everyday if market goes down.. in the begining of the day… just buy at 11am… and sell later on the day at a higher price and you will make money… looks like this market cant fall… :p

  18. I am trading as of today is 4/22/2101. That would mean tomorrow is FULL up day/ close at high for final squeeze to perhaps 1317. I will be FULLY short 3x on tomorrows close if we close near high. Look at a chart of April 14 – May 3rd 2010….look how if hovered around 1200 just as we hoover around 1300. Monday, Tuesday next week = solid down days with Tues gapping down and selling to 1270 area.Wed and Thur back up to/near 1300. Friday is then hard down…The following week is Gap up monday, then very heavy selling, perhaps panic selling of up to 260 SPX points DOWN ……

  19. Yes…I did mean 2011…

    RED…please re-read my post. I expect rally to/near SPX 1320 by tomorrow for FINAL top. Then chop chop next week….the week begging FEB 21 should be SPX PANIC selling of up to 260 SPX points….

  20. I don’t disagree with GSspy…just that apparently astrological aspect are changing this weekend, so Friday may be the last chance…Atilla said the same…Red would simply say, Legatus at its best…LOL

    • M,

      i think we’all are speaking the same language – that we are topping and the next destination in the short/medium term on our journey in the markets is DOWN…. so we all agree….

      top-ticking is hard as all bejesus, but what matters is that we all earn profits on well timed/good trades…….

    • Ok so what is happening astrologically this weekend? what does Atilla say and last chance to what… get short?

      • I don’t know what is in the stars, just those who look at the stars are saying first day of turnaround, and bearmarket here to stay… apparently worse after 19th, the worst in late march, but it may come sooner…Atilla says the same, selloff to start any day now, maybe Friday or early next week, panic in early spring…
        I still think that bottom of the 2011 will be June, but worse over by end of March, early April…this 5 waves down to June, 3rd is the worse

  21. Red/johnny – i just looked at that QID FP. it looks like it was flash crash day on may 6th…. a whole lot of odd prints happened that day…. my gut says to discount prints for that day as true FP’s. According to yahoo – the QID non busted trades for that day ranged from 7.49 to 20.43. for all i know there were busted trades that were executed at 4.96 level. if this were a non flash crash day print – it would make me ponder……. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=QID&a=04&b=01&c=2010&d=04&e=30&f=2010&g=d

    • Thanks Richie,

      That daily range seems counter-intuitive to me. One would think being a 2x short, it would not have gone down to the 7.49 level during a crash day??? Or even a busted trade at the 4.96 level. One would think it would do the opposite and go up a significant amount? Strange indeed…

  22. Well, the gangsters reset the charts… now they are pointing up into tomorrow. Unless this is just a bull trap, and the NFP report is really ugly, it looks like tomorrow will go up.

    No guarantee of course, as this could be part of the plan… a stop sweep “blow off top” into the close and tank tomorrow. Hard too say, but odds favor the bulls now… figures!

  23. MY VOTE IS DOWN DAY TOMMORROW!! and the REASON – the vix has 2 higher lows on the daily since it closed outside the lower bollinger band – and it looks like it wants to make it 3, so my vote is down tommorrow….. and another higher low for the VIX…. oh yeah baby!

    • Well, the vix did fulfill the FP level, so it’s possible that it could reverse now. It’s all about the NFP report now. We’ll know at 8:30 am tomorrow morning how the rest of the day will play out.

  24. oh come on!!! you don’t think they can pop this thing up one point to make a higher high…..they are toying with us…. oh look mom EXHAUSTION buying!!! the play is getting OLD we need new script writers for this illusion of a market!!

    • They’re just trying to lure the last few bucks in today…don’t think this is the very top, but tomorrow is probably going to be down…

      • but the ACTING skills of this market is on par with Jennifer Lopez – mucho terribleo!! (please forgive me all j-lo fans out there, but you gotta admit her acting is really really bad!)

  25. GAG me with a SPOON!!! just make a NEW high on the spx already….. i can hear the reptiles now…”oh we just wanted to have diverging indexes and the such so we made life for richie REAL terrible while we toyed around the last .6 of a point from a new spx high

  26. Ok gang, I got some things to do but I’ll do a new post later tonight. From the looks of things now, it could go either… at least from reading the charts. So, it’s probably going to be based on what the Non-Farm Payroll report says.

  27. Look,…til we see a 1-2-3 reversal WITH volume, getting short is difficult. Accept the fact that we are not going to catch the top. Take the chunck in between. The gangsters can run this up to anywhere with that kind of liquidity being poured in with POMO. The trend is up til it isn’t anymore. Divergences mean little.

  28. Just had a FP on SPY at 4:05 129.66 – so maybe we do go down tomorrow. Will email to Red so he can post it.

  29. Beware of Facebook day tomorrow!!!!!!!Social Network founder Jesse Eisenberg and the real Facebook founder both appeared on Saturday Night Live last week to complete the ritual. Quite a feat to get both of them together if one has seen the movie but then there are doing this for a higher cause.

    • Actually, I am just looking for a doji,hanging man or a spike up to 1313 tomorrow to keep the weekly bar as it is and in similarity to the week of April 23.

    • Thx – yeah I can’t see it either. If anything, there just isn’t enough money being printed to do so. Everyone is fully invested. Gotta shake loose some cash to PUMP it that much…

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