Light Volume Keeps The Market Up

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4450

Duh... No Surprise There!  (P.S. Heavy Volume Means Lot's Of Selling)

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26RkKckko1E)

This is now 2 days in a row that I've been looking for that "Blow Off Top" to happen, but yet to get it.  Will tomorrow be different?  I think so, as the short term charts have worked off all overbought and oversold conditions now, and seem too be pointing up going into tomorrow morning.

So, I give the odds at 60/40 in favor of the bulls.  The 60 minute chart dipped into negative territory on the histogram bars and rolled back up by the end of the day.  The MACD's on it are now around the zero level and could turn back up positive or go back down negative... therefore they are simply neutral.  There are similar patterns on the other charts too.

But, the light volume gives the bulls the edge tomorrow, regards of the neutral stance on some of the charts.  The snow storms up north have kept a lot of traders from showing up to work, which makes the volume even lighter.  So unless the gangsters decide to trick everyone tomorrow and put out a horrible Non-Farm Payroll number, I'd say we are likely to see that "Blow Off Top" that I've been looking for in the morning session on a possible gap up tomorrow.

However if it gaps ups, history says to fad the gap as it usually goes lower the rest of the day.  Just the opposite is true if it gaps down, as it usually floats higher.  Which will happen... I don't know?  Since I'm still looking for a blow off top, I'd give the odds of a gap up higher then a gap down.

Ok, that's it.  I'm keeping this simple.  A gap up is most likely, which should be faded.  A crash is coming soon, but I don't know when (nothing new there, as I've never known when... LOL).

Good luck everyone...

Red

136 COMMENTS

    • Every new post starts off with no comments Ceo. Each old post still has all the comments on them. Just open a second window and look at the old post to read them if you missed something.

  1. nice video Red. Yes, and it’s much easier for them to “fix” elections.
    Very sad when one sees actually how contolled everything is. It’s getting to the point that they dont give a damn how obvious it all is. I had a sell signal on gas/oil thats about it.

  2. Not sure the Non farm payroll or unemployment rate matter anymore.

    If you control the money supply and what is being reported then the market will go in the direction you want it to go.

  3. That wasn’t a very big “pop”… bummer! That means they are likely to stretch this out some more next week (or it was just too weak to pop up on the horrible NFP report?)

      • trading system

        Few years agoo i was following like many people here the elliot waves.Many people trying to predict the top end bottom before is in place.

        What is different ,i do not predict ,i just wait to happen and acting accord.

        I can’t say is the top for year/month or week…..i will wait the bottom of the current top.

        Do you think that Bill Gates (or any other smart and rich guy) predict that they will make 10$ or 10000000000XXXXX$ at the begining?

        Do not try to predict anything !!! Just go with the flow!!!!

  4. it is funny listening to people say, we are going down, no we are going up, no we are going sideways…….someone shoot the nasdaq! I think we are rounding, myself.

  5. The talk on the news is there may be a run on the banks in Egypt on Monday – banks have been closed for ten day – what will this do to our markets?

    • Hmmm… if there is a bank run in Egypt on Monday, the markets will rally as those banks will go out of business and leave only the gangster banks in the US left to rob the public. Less competition equals a higher stock price. I’m going long on BAC and it could hit that FP of 300 Monday.

        • Under normal circumstances I’d say our market would tank, but the Fed’s control this market, so if they don’t want it to tank… it won’t. But simply, I have no idea what a bank run in Egypt will do to the US Markets.

  6. dee/red,

    my vote is that the world’s markets have a heart attack because a 13 year old kid throws a moltov cocktail at the suez canal – which makes it close, which spike oil to 200$ and sends economies into deeper recession!!! all happening on MONDAY!

  7. We are coming to the end of the apex of this triangle now. The market will soon have too breakout over the overhead resistance level around 131.00 spy, or breakdown from the rising support line from the December 31st low around 128.00 spy. I say we break up… as the gangsters won’t let this P.O.S. market fall.

  8. red,,,,,WTF — we have short term FP to the downside and none of them are being respected?? have they changed the game?? are too many people aware of the FP?? they only seem to respect the upside ones, and the downside ones are left unfulfilled!!! very uncool.

      • Except, of course, if Mubarack steps down and the quants are programmed over the weekend to spike the Dow 250 points on Monday…

        • The Vix is a friend of mine, until it goes psychopathic, and I get scared of it. Right now, it favors the bears. your scenario is in there too! VIX 13’s.

    • Yes Richie, the FP’s only work for the bulls, not the bears. The bulls are fed and taken care of by their master while the bears roar free in the forest. The masters hate this, and hunt the bears to make them their slaves too.

      Just go long and join bulls Richie! Join the “Darkside” Luke… it’s OK be a slave!

      • RED,

        no worries…. i would rather sit on the sidelines and wait – no market can go up forever – i am short from 1293ish and i have to mitigate loss if this market breaks up to the upside though…

      • Where do I sign up for the Darkside? Send me an application!

        Oh wait, I wouldn’t be able to pass a background check……I’m not a murderer, rapist, thug, robber, fraud artist or any other type of felon……never mind……

      • If there is a FP that corresponds roughly to $SPX 1295 or so, that would be totally in line with my target. I posted a chart in a separate comment, take a look!

  9. TODAY’S TRIVA…

    29 members of ***** have been accused of spousal abuse, 
    7 have been arrested for fraud, 
    19 have been accused of writing bad checks, 
    117 have bankrupted at least two businesses, 
    3 have been arrested for assault, 
    71 have credit reports so bad they can’t qualify for a credit card, 
    14 have been arrested on drug-related charges, 
    8 have been arrested for shoplifting, 
    21 are current defendants in lawsuits, 

    And in 1998 alone, 84 were stopped for drunk driving, but released after they claimed immunity.

    WHO IS IT?

  10. ok red,,,this is my last go

    the HOD was 1311 – a spooky number as 1(3=1+1+1)11 or 111/111….something that makes you go hmmmm…….and then there is monday – i wonder what color monday brings??

    • I hope you hedged for Monday…

      I don’t know WhyTF I just don’t buy strangles? This is ridiculous. BTW, the Q’s up print can be considered hit today…

  11. How about this 1310.85 = 13 (1 x 8+5 or 1 x 13 = 13) or 1313
    Ok yes, I have slipped into total insanity… have a good weekend everyone… headed to my mountain house to freeze my ass off! LOL

      • How did you like my numbers? Wonder if they (TPTB) ever get that “complicated or creative”???
        I like Richies idea too…
        Maybe they are on to us and created a new code… just screwing with us more and more.
        Will look for your update Red – have a good one and yes, it is a major P.O.S. market!

  12. SP closed at (13)(10.87) with a high at 1311 up 3.77(ie1307tribute)….1313 is around 1087pts above the 10-19-1987 close of 224.83….actually closer to 1311. Last year, the market bottomed on Feb 5 and now I saw on another site that the Tulip bubble mania topped on Feb 5,1637 or 374 years ago. Of course, 7years ago today, Social Network founder had his revelation and 3 months ago on Nov 5 the stock market topped out at 136tds from the April high. The dollar bottomed at the same time.

    The South Sea Bubble put in a Bwave high around this time in 1721, 290 years ago (29–crash number) around the time of Saros 136’s first appearance as a total solar eclipse on January 27, 1721 ie 1-27-1721 (a lot of 127s there—see 127 hours,PearlHarbor,Boston TeaParty). Saros 136’s latest appearance occurred 18 months ago with the lunar eclipse following it occurring August 6,2009 with the 18 month cycle coming in 2-6 which also happens to be 23months from 3-6-9 bottom. Currently, this week is 23 weeks from the August bottom.

    Monday is 2-7-11. Today, most averages put in a slightly higher high than achieved on 1-27 with lower RSI readings including the Nasdaq.

    There were 73 weeks down from Oct2007 high to March 2009 low. The rally since then has now exceeded the 2007-2009 downleg by 37 weeks.

    • With today’s action, it looks like the stock market has now put in 5 waves up from last week’s low and according to DeMark wave, there should have been 5 waves up from the July low. (haven’t reviewed the paramaters of D-Wave again but the Nov correction definitely made a new 13day low and came close to a 21day low while the Dow definitely did—-I believe 13days is only required—21 days for a change of trend)

      • Wow, I didn’t see that. I was looking more of the 127 angle. Anyway, I saw a photo of a NYSE trader in the Wall Street Journal with the #2711 on his jacket back in December so I have been attuned to that date since.

        One of those hiding in plain sight moments.

  13. hi red,
    let’s assume,
    Let’s say Ben B. / gov’t knows exactly what he’s doing, and he wants food and commodities to go to extravagant levels and stay there. He wants depressed home prices. He exactly wants high unemployment. etc. What are some of the behind the scenes, reasons for that?

    • In one of his older academic papers, he criticized the Japanese QE efforts because they always included disclaimers and hedges to reassure the bond markets.

      He argued strongly that the key to successful reinflation efforts was to convince the entire world + bond market that the agency (in our case now, the Fed) is totally irresponsible and irrational. Once everyone is divorced of any notion that you will protect your own currency, etc. they will take your reinflation efforts far more seriously.

      In essence, the markets will go from the assumption that “they can only reinflate until this trendline, so I will short at X level” to “OMG they don’t care! Buy buy buy!” This process was never successfully achieved by the Japanese because more conservative interests would always rein in the QE efforts.

      Once the Fed identifies that sentiment has tipped in their favor (last summer was probably that point), they merely need to ‘threaten’ more QE, and the market will be trained to respond accordingly.

      The ‘trickle down’ of this paper wealth is only a small increase in spending. However, it might be enough to push the GDP into a +3% zone, which could ultimately become self-sustaining and allow the economy to slowly grow out of the massive debt burden.

    • One more thought: Once commodities skyrocket to a certain level, emerging economies will get crushed. ‘Smart money’ will get withdrawn from those investments and pushed into developed markets as they are better able to withstand the margin pressure.

      I.e. Money will flow out of bonds and emerging markets and into commodities and developed markets. This is very much an ‘every man for himself’ scenario.

  14. hey Red,
    if this Legatus thing works out (e. i. crash), I’m changing my diqus log in to carberius or kerber…seems like we have to go ancient Roman to fit in…LOL…

    • Well, it worked out perfectly 2 years when Reinhardt caught onto it, and posted it on Yahoo Finance. But now that they’ve been exposed (even Jesse Ventura did a quick piece about it on his Conspiracy Theory Show), it might not work again?

      While we did go up to the DIA FP of 118.16, and turn down shortly afterwards, it wasn’t a turn down for good! As we all know now, the market sold off only one day hard and then rebounded to this insane B.S. level that we are at now.

      We should already be in Primary Wave 3 down, but the gangsters change the rules once us sheep discover their evil plans. So, I don’t know how effective the Legatus Pilgrimage turn date will be this time?

      Maybe it still will work? I really don’t know? If so, it should start sometime next week. We’ll see I guess…

  15. delayed trading reaction off the employment news, ( dismal), market probably goes down on Monday, when it should have gone down on Fri. my hero to zero guess, based on historical averages.

  16. delayed trading reaction off the employment news, ( dismal), market probably goes down on Monday, when it should have gone down on Fri. my hero to zero guess, based on historical averages.

  17. Martin Armstrong is quite the enigma. He was held in jail for 7 years on contempt of court, then after 7 years he was convicted of defrauding Japanese investors and received another 5 years — added on (not incorporated into the 7 already served). I don’t know the whole story, probably only a handful of people really do.

    Although he has some radical views at times, he attempts to go back into history to pull out historical examples of why “there is nothing new under the sun or moon” or Neptune squaring Uranus ;-). As far as I noticed, he is not really an Astro type guy, but he doesn’t let his thinking get reigned in by the conventional party line.

    He writes with an old fashioned typewriter and does charts on graph paper, by hand. He allows me to republish any of his works as a public service. Actually he allows anyone to republish as he sees a turning of the tides and thinks the overall damaged can be minimized by more real information being available.

    Here is a link to a recent writing about the importance of Culture and the rise of China

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

    Also, there is a poll on Gold, please register your viewpoint

  18. VIX 16 = earnings date.
    when a company announces earnings, how many of you guess right?
    VIX is at that same point. Is it going to 13 or back to 20?
    I can find a lot of diehard bears, willing to give me vIX 13, just on gansta principles…:)

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