Saturday, July 13, 2024

Earthquakes And War, Nothing Affects The Stock Market

At least for now, that is!  But how much longer will that last?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR3R8utzsVw)

While I can't tell you that the market is going to crash tomorrow, I'll just lay out some possible scenario's.  Friday's and Monday's seem too be the day's that most large sell offs happen.  Panic and fear set in, as the thought of holding long over the weekend scares a lot of traders into selling on Friday.

Of course Monday's are common big down days because the prior Friday was usually a shaky close, from a week of "indecision" in the market.  This leaves us with another "unknown" for tomorrow.  Will the market open flat, gap up or down?  Let's explore what each one means and the possible outcomes.

A gap up over the recent high of 1339 would surely be bullish and I'd expect 1344 to be taken out, leaving a race for the FP on the SPY of 138.86 (about 1388 spx).  But a weak gap up below 1339 would make me suspect that it is a final exhaustion gap, leaving the strong possibility that it will fail once again to take out 1339 and would likely sell off hard into the last halve of the day taking out the Thursday low of 1326.

A flat open would likely result in an early morning grind slowly toward the apex of the triangle the market created today.  At some point it would have too breakout to the upside or downside.  My guess is that would breakdown because of it being a Friday and I just can't see traders getting all excited enough to stage a big breakout on the long side with all the worry about the new earthquake in Japan.  Who want's to hold long over a weekend with that kind of uncertainty?  But maybe it does break up out of the triangle anyway, as it's not traders buying this market but the Skynet computer (which doesn't have emotions).

A gap down would be the most bearish I believe.  While it should try to fill the gap (or some of it) during the open, it would be a great place to get short in my opinion.  The likelihood of the market continuing to sell off the rest of the day would be very good.  My downside first target would then be the 50dma around 1312 spx.

So, there are your 3 possible scenario's for Friday.  Which one will it be?  I wish I knew the answer, but I don't.  However, most of the possibilities are bearish for Friday... which should be some good news for us bears.  Let's not forget that Monday is 4-11-11, which is the date the Ben Fulford thinks the Illuminati gangsters will cause Mount Fujiyama Volcano to erupt and sink Japan.  Let's hope that the recent payoff money of $60 Trillion Yen from Japan to the Federal Reverse Nazi Gangster Elite Illuminati members is enough to get them to turn off the HAARP beam pointed at the volcano right now.

Here's the latest update from Ben about that...

http://kauilapele.wordpress.com/2011/04/05/benjamin-fulford-april-5-2011-japan%E2%80%99s-government-threatened-with-more-haarp-attacks-pays-60-trillion-yen-to-feds/

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

I can’t wait until the market literally goes vertical. 500+ points a day, day after day.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I think that would be hyperinflation scenario.

oh look! gold & silver up tonight!
something about government failed 11th hour attempt.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

FAILURE IS THE ONLY OPTION!

That’s the new catch phrase.

I’ve been wondering lately…HOW THE HELL DID THE MAYANS KNOW???

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Maybe the astronauts (that the Mayans depict in their stone carvings) told them that the DNA of human beings was programmed to self-destruct the entire race in 2012, hence the calendar. There is no other way to explain the logarithmically increasing level of criminal behavior and general stupidity on Earth at this moment.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Astronauts or connection to the spirit world.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Why am I not surprised to see the market up in the premarket, looking ready to gap over resistance at the open? I’d might as well just have posted one scenario… “UP” is the only direction for the market!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Hey Red once you start saying the markets will only go up then you probably get a massive selloff. They are monitoring sites for bears and trying to bring them out of hibernation. They will short squeeze you until you say buy buy buy. You will have to have your secret short positions but don’t tell no one. They don’t want anyone shorts making money because you can make a lot of money when they do have a massive selloff. Back in 2008 I knew a crash was coming and some secret government was attacking my family trying to create confusion in our life because we had a opportunity to make big money. We end up moving to Africa Sept 2008 and traded from Africa, but the secret government was there making sure they can keep control over our finances by putting pressure on us there. The game is rig and any new money who are aware of whats going on and don’t fear you just have to be resilient and keep pushing forward. Buy Silver and short secretly

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Yes, I’m sure they read my site and listen to the video’s. I’m still in cash right now, so they didn’t rob me on this squeeze… LOL! I know they are going to the 138.86 spy FP, which is why I’ve been extremely cautious on shorting right now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Gang,

The 60 and 30 minute charts are pointing up strong now. It’s not likely that this resistance area will hold the bulls back today. I expect a breakout to happen. It looks like we might not have a right shoulder at this point, and we are just going to continue up the to FP level over the coming week. Gangsters!

Kevin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, that sounds more like it. Head and shoulders patterns are too easy for the common retail trader to see. They have to fake ’em out and then squeeze the crap out of them. If oil would ever come down, this market would scream up. Maybe they want to wait for announcement of NO QE3 in conjunction with high oil coming down to balance tha market. I dunno…

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

correct me if i am mistaken, but monday is Q1 earnings kick off (april 11). could this be the ultimate ‘sell the earnings’? let us see the extent of margin compression from massively higher inputs that has been stuffed in the pipeline for 2 qtrs now ~ i think we should keep an eye on this earnings period….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Yes, it’s hard too predict how the earnings will be but maybe will get some bear food out of it?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We have a nice bottoming tail on the 5 minute chart. This down move might not get the gap filled? But, it should have cleared out all the bulls… the bears are next I believe.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Hmmm… the failure to gap over the resistance area produced this nice sell off (actually, it did go over by just .08 cents with a high of 1339.46 spx). Now, what should we make of this?

Going back up as the 60 minute chart wants too, will make about 6 hits of that resistance level (counting from the April 1st hit). Is the 7th time a charm? Most of the time I’ve noticed that when the market wants to go past a resistance or support level, it will gap it!

Well, it did indeed gap it this morning… but it failed to hold? This leaves the possibility for a sell off later today after the 60 and 30 minute charts find their peak and rollover.

However, if the 5 and 15 minute charts work off their overbought conditions, they could help push the market through the resistance zone as well? It’s a tough call right now and the charts still have us range bound.

Since we just filled the gap, let’s see what the rest of the day brings…

richie
richie
13 years ago

next item,

at what point is the market FORCED to price in oil of WTI at 111$ (and counting) and brent north of 121$??? we started to see divergence happen at this level in 08, when the market began to sell off as oil continued to move higher….. we are at 111$/brl people!! what say you all//

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

I’m not sure it matters Richie… as it looks like the gangsters still have plenty of money to keep this market artificially up.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don’t know about oil holding on much longer, as Cushing is nearly full…if they can’t take delivery, they have to sell contracts…now, OPEC shipments are down due to high price (no demand)… the only way out for oil traders not to lose money is to kill Saudi supply before OpEx…4/11/11…those pesky terrorists may show up again…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Meaning you think oil will sell off some, or rally higher?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

it will sell off if Saudi supply remains the same… oil up “something happens”… so the only way not to lose money into Op Ex, is for “something to happen”, IMHO

cletus
13 years ago

I sort of disagree with the notion that the smartest move for market makers is to make a new high to take out bear stops (first). Wouldn’t it be better to flush some bulls out with a drop and then take out the bulls and bears up to new highs? We’ll see their plan shortly.

Could be a huge short squeeze if there’s some dumb government plan to fix the budget issues. But if they can’t reach a deal, look out below.

The question is, with the bearish % at 15%, how many bears are there to squeeze?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  cletus

Agreed… there doesn’t seem too be very many bears left to squeeze. Maybe they will tank it into the close? It’s just too hard to figure out when we are still stuck in this range bound area.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

OMG….. I cover a little too early lol

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I think we are getting close to a bottom for the day BK, so you probably didn’t miss out on much. We could dip one more time, but the 5 and 15 minute charts will turn back up shortly and we should back up into the close.

How much is another story? Maybe we stay range bound for the rest of day, or maybe they push through the resistance into the close? Of course we could also rollover into the close if the 60 minute chart gets overbought… but I really doubt it at this point. It’s been in oversold territory all week, and it’s likely time to go positive.

I’d be shocked if we take out the low from yesterday, as it seems too me that nothing has been able to tank the market. I don’t know what will at this point, but they seem to want to hold it up for now.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New intraday FP of 132.5333! I think we are going down some more today!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think she’s about to breakdown now gang! We are very near the apex of the triangle that formed today. Not much longer before a move up or down will happen. I think it will be down…

Kevin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Interesting read. Although the fear mongering, “sitting duck of a planet”, is entertaining. The possible real issue could be the “asteroid” hitting the moon, since it is 1 LU away from the Earth. November is a long way away and more details are needed, obviously.

Kevin
13 years ago

Talk about being range bound over the last 7 trading days. Someone is either getting in OR getting out…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Kevin

I think we will sell off into the close today and hit the FP of 132.5333 (spy). I’m clueless about next week, as even though the charts are bearish, you can’t trust the gangster to prop it up and keep it from selling off.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

no one has balls to go short over the weekend ? lol

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I went short at about 133.40 spy, but I’ll close it out at the EOD. I did it because of the FP and the overall market looked very weak. I’m not sure about Monday, but it’s not looking good for the bulls so far. While we could gap down on Monday, I’ll just wait and see… and then get short again on the bounce.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Wow, if the market actually closes DOWN on a FRIDAY…that will be a rarity.

I love oil. Hell, I just might take delivery.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I thought you were already rich, owned your own oil wells, and lived in a mansion with Granny, Elly Mae, Jethro, and a cement pond? (ROFLMAO)

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Livin’ the Dream!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

big boys are gonna take this baby down…..

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

FP hit! LOL… I’m out of my shorts… thanks Mr. Gangster for telling me where you were taking it.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Anyone bullish into Monday?

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

YES, I AM ~ BUT WAIT 112$ OIL, NO ~ BUT YES I AM, ~ BUT WAIT MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, NO ~ BUT YES I AM ~ BUT WAIT JAPAN NUCLEAR REACTORS AT FUKUSHIMA NO, ~ BUT WAIT YES I AM ~ BUT EUROPE DEFAULT, WASHINGTON SHUT DOWN ~ BUT WAIT YES I AM, BUY THE F’NG DIP!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

yo.. where is that cartooon.. from youtube ? where the guy say’s
buy da f’nk dip ? I was rolling when I saw that video.. anyone have the link ?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

LOL… you are too stressed out my friend! We should rally up a little on Monday and hit prior support turned resistance. Then, if all goes well, we should roll over into the close and maybe Tuesday too?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

If another war starts w/Israel & gaza, that will be a great buy the f’n dip day for oil.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

investor intelligence; 57% bulls

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Shouldn’t that be investor stupidity?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Regarding your last video…if they decide there are not enough bears, I expect a pullback to around 1310 or so, before rocketing upward. With all the free money available, they would be able to let the market hit an important technical signal, then completely violate it with all the illegally printed money.
Waiting game…

zstock7
13 years ago

Bernanke’s QE II Scorecard

1.Long-term yields are rising
2.Banks are not lending
3.Consumer credit is still dropping
4.Housing prices hit new all time record lows
5.Housing starts have hit new all time record lows
6.Banks are sitting on massive amounts of properties not marked-to market

7.Commodity prices have soared
8.Food and energy prices are up substantially

9.Those on fixed incomes earning nothing on their deposits are getting crushed

10.The stock market marches higher

Bernanke has taken credit for point number 10. He ignores or denies any role in points 1 through 9.

zstock7
13 years ago

Iitate, 25 miles northwest of the Fukushima plant, have had cesium levels that high.
policy on rice will ban planting of the crop in soil that has more than 5,000 becquerels of cesium-137 per kilogram of soil.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/10/world/asia/10japan.html

zstock7
13 years ago

western united states radiation levels, as far as i can tell, they aren’t high enough to collapse the western united states economy.
at chernoble, they were high enough to collapse the russian economy, thru too much sickness over time and huge losses in productivity.

zstock7
13 years ago

here’s a fukishima video explaining some radiation effects western US. from a news outlet run by local people in seatle

http://www.examiner.com/exopolitics-in-seattle/leuren-moret-coverup-california-northwest-usa-bc-canada-under-radiation-threat-as-high-as-japan-video

zstock7
13 years ago

Mikhail Gorbachev
The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later. Indeed, the Chernobyl catastrophe was an historic turning point: there was the era before the disaster, and there is the very different era that has followed. …
http://www.greenfacts.org/en/chernobyl/l-3/5-social-economic-impacts. htm#1p0

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

in 5 years JAPAN economy probably collapses, based on this outcome. there’s a lot of unsustainable costs associated with a meltdown.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

link doesn’t work, use the link below

zstock7
13 years ago

The costs of the Chernobyl nuclear accident can only be calculated with a high degree of estimation, given the non-market conditions prevailing at the time of the disaster and the high inflation and volatile exchange rates of the transition period that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, the magnitude of the impact is clear from a variety of government estimates from the 1990s, which put the cost of the accident, over two decades, at hundreds of billions of dollars.

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