It's that time again... to go back to work slaving yourself away at trying to make some money trading this market successfully. Hopefully you are all rested up now and tired of turkey leftovers I am. So what's going to happen today you ask? Great question... and we have some great clues to answer that one. Looking at this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures this morning we it peaked in the +5 area and is about to rollover now. We see the MACD's coming together very closely with the black line still barely above the red line, but almost crossed. This shows exhaustion on the move up and I think it will lead to a small down day today.
Then if all goes well it well these MACD's will have drifted a little lower by tomorrow and will try to turn back up and make another move higher in the futures. While most forecasters are looking for 2630-2650 before this move ends it's not looking like it's going to make it there this week. Instead I think we'll top in the 2605-2615 area by Wednesday and then this MACD will ready to go down (with a bearish alignment of course) and take the market with it. It should take the market down to reset the prior low from 11/15 around 2555 or the 10/19 and 10/25 lows around 2542 over the comings few weeks. After that I guess Santa will save the day and rally us back into the new year. For now though we should be just two days from a top, like either tomorrow or Wednesday should be it from what I see in this chart along with other charts of various time frames.
There's another clue that must have been a signal to the insiders. It's a "possible" FP on the VIX at the end of the day last Friday. It shows a spike low that I don't think is real. It looks like a fake print to me and if they rally the market up more into mid-week the VIX could drop down to that low, which to me would be a perfect place to short the market. I'm not 100% sure it will happen as I'm mainly focused on seeing a top on Tuesday or Wednesday in the 2605-2615 area, but if it coincides with the VIX hitting that low then it's just more icying on the cake I guess. Again, for today I don't expect much. It's leaning more toward a small red close but if it's green it too should be small. I see just some light volume chop today as it's the first day back after the long holiday and traders won't likely be doing very much.
Midday Update on possible coded message...