ES Morning Update October 19th 2018

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After the close yesterday we had a "possible" FP showing 279.25 on the SPY, which is right around the opening level, so it might just be a late fill... not sure? But if we continue to grind up higher all day to pin the SPY somewhere I'd have to think that would be the likely target. But early next week should be down as the bounce rally from the 2710 SPX looks complete at Wednesdays high of 2817, which suggests we are in a C wave down of some degree as that bounce was the B up and the A down was from the all time high of 2940 to the 2710 low.

That's about a 230 point drop on that A wave and 107 point rally on the B wave. From here the next wave down should at least match the A wave according to Elliottwave Theory. So 230 down from 2817 is 2587 SPX, which is close to the point value drop I calculated from a FP I have (it's on my FP's Page of my site). Today's bounce back up in the futures from the nasty sell off yesterday looks like a wave 2 up of the C down with the wave 1 down happening yesterday. My guess is that they grind up all day and close around that FP from yesterdays close and end the wave 2 up of C down. That's setups Monday for the wave 3 down of C down to start.

Of course if this count is wrong the B up didn't end at 2817 on Wednesday then we should go a little higher on Monday to end it... like maybe 2820-2830? But I wouldn't bet on that happening. Certainly it's possible but to go up a little more on Monday and then start another big move down (it would then reset the C down and be starting with the wave 1 of C again) doesn't seem logically from a "trickery" standpoint... and we know that SkyNet loves to trick bears and bulls alike. I'm thinking a nice rally up into that 279.25 area at the close would have bears scared to short over the weekend as it would have almost completely erased yesterdays drop... which makes bears wonder if it's just gearing up to go much higher. However, it's possible they wait until Monday to hit that "possible" FP on the SPY... either way it's likely just the wave 2 up inside C down an is a great short in my opinion. Have a great weekend everyone.