ES Morning Update October 22nd 2018

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The futures are up some this morning from being down Sunday night. Overall they are basically about where they closed on Friday. So a flat to slightly up open on the SPY appears likely. Everything look bearish as far as I can tell. In fact it looks like are are setting up for another big drop that could happen today, tomorrow or Wednesday. My guess it that it's finished by Wednesday and another 100 points lower on the SPX. As the old saying goes... if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck, then it must be a duck.

The current setup in the market looks like a wave 3 (or C) down, is in the month of October going into the most bearish week, has negative divergences everywhere, is stuck below falling trendlines of resistance, is under moving averages with a "head and shoulders" pattern, so it must be a bear. Today could be the last day for the bulls before the big drops happen, but all it not dead for them as I'd fully expect a very strong rally back up to follow after this big drop finishes this Wednesday or Thursday.

The move down should complete an ABC down from the 2940 all time high, which appears to be just a larger wave 1 down of some degree. Then a strong wave 2 up into the elections should follow. From there it gets tricky as if this wave 2 up continues after the elections then it will then be labeled wrong as a new all time high would suggest the move up from the low this week would be a wave 5 to 3000+ on the SPX.

Personally, I don't see it that way. I think the top is in, but many others think that after this ABC down is done we are off to the race back up in a wave 5 (the ABC down would be a wave 4 of course). I'll just play this day by day as I don't have a crystal ball nor a time machine (wish I did though... LOL). Anyway, for today I'm looking for this open to fade as the day goes on and for the market to start down into a nasty drop for an estimated Wednesday or Thursday low.