The market is looking very tired right now and the futures are trapped at a point of resistance. I'm still rooting for a gap fill by tomorrow from 12/13-12/14, which is the open 2 points between 2649.00-2651.00. That's my ideal shorting spot for the next move down. But we can't see any pullbacks prior to that where the market closes red. We need multiple green closes to continue today and tomorrow for this perfect setup to happen.
Any drop into a red close today can reset this perfect bearish setup and open the door for a lot more upside in the coming days. It's kinda like a game of football where a green close today will be the 3rd down and a green close tomorrow will be the 4th down. Touchdown would be a new all time high, and that's just not happening from this level on the 3rd down.
So the bears need to make sure they don't throw out some penalty (a red close) that gives the bulls another 4 downs to run the market up higher. Make them turn the ball over tomorrow with a green close on the 4th down and bears can run the market back down hard in the coming days.
The DOW is the main leader here and if the various ETF's are mixed between red and green at the end of the day it's the DOW that needs a green close the most. The SPX, Russell and Nasdaq could close red slightly and we should still be ok for the today being the 3rd down for the bulls. Now, as for that gap fill... it doesn't have to close. But if the bears want to take the market deeper in the coming days to weeks then they want it closed.
Having open gaps on the upside just begs for the bulls to return to that spot at sometime in the near future. Best to get it closed so it can be forgotten about and then the bears can just open another can of whipass on the bulls. But don't worry about the bulls as they will get their turn to return the beating on the bears with a nice summer rally.
For the short term though lets see if the bears can take back control this Friday. Their mission is (should they decide to accept it?) to let the market close green today and tomorrow. Can they resist the urge to attack? Only time will tell.