ES Morning Update April 12th 2019

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No surprise here this morning before the open really as the market is rigged to go up probably 80% or more of the time, so expecting a nice setup to form for the bears is like buying a lottery ticket sometimes. I'm just glad I stayed in cash as that saved me from being trapped short this morning. Of course I refused to go long as we are quite overbought up here and overdue for a nice pullback. So I'm forced to wait for a better opportunity, which might just be around the corner here soon?

I don't see anything big setting up on the sell side for today so other then some possible morning dip I'd expect this rally up to hold into the close and maybe grind up a little higher even. I've been thinking that the past several days of sideways action could be a wave 4 of some degree so it's likely this is the wave 5 up happening now. I suspect this will carry over into next week too so there's very low odds of me taking any short over the weekend. Could it top today and drop on Monday? Sure, but I don't see it as likely.

There's nothing in the "possible" wave counts to give me enough clues that a big drop is coming. Dip buyers are always around at a top, so the first decent pullback will undoubtedly have a move back up... and that's what I'm looking for to short at. We are up in that area (2910-2920) where a top could happen. Again, it's just too early to know right now. But remember that it's common for the first attempt at a new all time high usually fails, so a pullback late next week is certainly possible. We need to see some weakness first though, which I think could happen on Monday or Tuesday. For today though I don't see any high odds trade. Have a great weekend.

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