Thursday, June 13, 2024

ES Morning Update September 19th 2019

The FOMC is now over and what I wild day it was after the minutes were released with wild swings up and down several times until a sharp drop went down and stayed down for a little while before ripping back up into the close. It wasn't your typical meeting, that's for sure. What does it all mean? It's a crack in the dam the bulls built I think. It says things aren't as good as many think.

It doesn't mean we are ready to rollover and start a nice correction yet, but it does tell me that the upside is limited here. I do not know if we will make a new all time high or not but I'll sit with the pattern from past FOMC days where a turn happens within 2-4 days afterwards. The Fed don't want to be the blame for any lasting drop after a meeting so they hold up the market for several days until some other news event can take the blame. The VIX contracts expired yesterday, and we still have other index contracts and options yet to go, but they will all be done by the close on Friday.

Next week will be free to start a correction and I do still think we'll see it. But right now I don't know what day will be the start of that down move. I should be able to figure it out as we get closer but for now we are still likely to chop around until this week ends. Bulls need to step on it if they want a new all time high as "time" is their enemy. My best guess is that if they don't make it by Monday or Tuesday of next week then it's not happening.

For today I don't see much. A grind higher or sideways to keep the bears trapped that shorted the bottom yesterday, and of course make all the puts expire worthless into tomorrow. That's about all I have to add as most everything I've already said in prior morning updates this week still apply. Have a wonderful day and may God Bless you in life.

Author: Red

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