WOW! What a surprise... a down day. Haven't seen that in quite awhile it seems. I wasn't expecting it to be that deep but it is what it is I guess. It still looks like an A wave down inside Small Wave 4 right now, and I think we bottomed yesterday near the close as we rallied back up nicely into the afterhours session.
I think we will now spend the rest of the week, and probably into the CPI next Tuesday, carving out the B wave bounce. I wasn't expecting the A down to end that fast but it certain looks like it might have done so... but there's this new FP (2 of them possibly?) that might be saying that we will go back down today to retest the low from yesterday to put in a double bottom. Here's that FP on the QQQ...
I'm thinking that we revisit the lower (possible) FP at 434.28 first and then rally up to the 443.69 FP later. But that's just a guess as we could also go up to the higher FP first and then the lower one isn't hit until next week after the CPI? It's hard too know for sure but I'll just be keeping them in mind as "targets" for when we are heading in that direction. The more logical move is to hit the downside today and then go back up.
Of course on the ES it will trade a little differently then the QQQ but the direction should match, so whenever the upside FP on the QQQ is hit and pieced I'd be looking at the ES as possibly topping for the B wave bounce. As for the C wave down... that's going to be hard to figure out.
I do think it will unfold in 5 waves, so if by some crazy squeeze we hit the upside FP on the QQQ today then we could start the C down after that and then I'd looking for it to bottom into the CPI next week instead of top. There are a lot of variations to how this could play out but so far odds favor yesterdays drop (the A wave) as being finished. We'll see.
Have a blessed day.
