as the market is back to gorging itself again, (but it did lose some weight, right?)
Well it looks like the market is going to fool everyone and actually go up and form the right shoulder around the 1140-1150 area now. At least that what everyone is expecting, so maybe it will actually happen now, who know? That's another way to fool everyone... do as expected, and shock'em!
Maybe they printed up some more money and injected it into the market over the last few days? It came from somewhere, but it still doesn't look like the big boys are buying. So, eventually, the retail traders will run out of steam, and then we will have another leg down.
Not that it will do any good for us bears right now, as there seems to be no doubt that this market isn't going to sell off huge between now and Friday. Maybe a backtest to the 1080 area... if the bears are lucky. But honestly, as long as the volume stays light, I don't see it happening.
So, will next week be the sell off that we have all been looking for? I guess that depends on where we close this week out at. That 1080 area is pretty important to the bulls and bears. A close below it, and I believe we will sell off next week. A close above it, and we will likely go higher next week.
As for tomorrow. I'm clueless? We are so massively overbought right now, that it's not even funny anymore. The market should drop about 20 pounds (points) tomorrow... but again, light volume allows manipulation, and if they want to keep it up... they will.
Red
Beats me who's buying, nobody I know is buying this market here and even the “long term” investors I know sold last month.
It's not the big institutions… that's for sure. Just typical B.S. before the big dump. Of course I'll probably miss it… as that's just my luck.
But on the bright side… I made an new banner to promote Anna. Pretty cool huh?
seems like there are many confused bulls and bears at the moment. I like that recipe as volatility rocks.
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2010/06…
Confused, beat up, bitch slap, and hung out to dry is more like it… LOL
I know some of you stop by, check out the charts and rants….at Hawaii Trading.
I did Phase 1 revamp of the blog, and just now trying to get Disqus back up and running, although their communications are about as opaque as a hidden gulf undersea oil plume.
Stop by, drop a comment.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
S&P futures this morning (6am), 1104.5 vs. 1115.23
Red and fellow disenfranchised bears, I do not think that this rally will last unless volume kicks in on the upside.
I've been bugged by negative divergences in NYMO and NYADV as they pertain to recent bottoms. Blogger Humble Student has also noticed the NYMO problem and made some projections:
http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2010/06/ex…
Check out my comment on that thread for reference to pertinent charts on Cobra's site.
Can you explain his post or your comments? Confused!!
There's an advance/decline indicator called the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) that is presently very high and showing an overbought condition. If/when it returns to parity, prices will go down, and sharply. This should take a couple of weeks.
I think the reason NYMO is so high (out of proportion to the increase in the general indexes) is because of low-volume buying. This creates upticks but not large percentage gains.
Another clue that the market should come down soon is a large volume of index put activity (CPCI) on Monday. Index puts tend to be 'smart money' puts, i.e., correct.
Hey Red, how nice of you to do that banner, and my i have a big head! 🙂 thank you
You don't have a big head dear. You have sexy blue eyes on a head that is just the perfect size.
aweeeeeeeeeeehhhhhh shuckles! 🙂
Unrelenting bull pump. Highly overbought and every piece of news being terrible, and still being propped. Closing out my last shorts if we don't move down soon and going to pick up calls.
If I were the wall street crooks, I'd sell off to 1080 on Friday to kill all the bears that are currently short in June options. I'd close it at 1080 leaving everyone guessing as to whether that move down was a “B” wave with a final “C” wave back up to 1140 area, or if it's going to continue down the following week.
TPTB know that from an Astrology point of view, next week has more planets aligning together, forming a negative pattern, then it has in an 100 years.
Next week should be the biggest crash in history, according to Astrology. But, since they know that everyone else knows it too… will they stop it? Did they secretly inject another stimulus package into the market these last few days, to prevent the disaster?
If so, then they plan on going up past the right shoulder and forming a new high around 11,800, before selling off into the later months of the years.
You have too realize that they monitor everything, and every blog on the blogsphere. They might not read each blog, or blog comments one by one, but their super computers give them the general sentiment of what the mood is on the net.
That 1080 area is the perfect place to park this market on Friday. It would be a very confusing point, as the bulls will be looking for a final “C” wave up, and the bears would think that the final wave “5” down has started. Which one would be right?
On one hand, you can say that the internet has helped the retail trader, as more information is available to be learned. And, everyone can share their knowledge on blogs and forums.
But on the other hand, you can say that it's hurt the retail trader, as now it's too easy for TPTB to use super computer to find out what every one is talking about (bullish or bearish), whereas in the past, they didn't have that capability.
So, that's my forecast for the rest of the week… park it around 1080, and trick everyone.
Dow jones support and resistance line in chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Little H&S on the Spy 1 min
You know, I've seen the market “get high” many times before, but this must be some new type of crystal methane it's been smoking, as there is absolutely NO logical reason to this high up.
But then again, the market lives in fairy land, while the rest of world lives in the real world… reality.
I don't get either. Everything out today should add more fuel to the double dip fire. I'm fully expecting the markets to move higher, but given the overbought technicals on every timeframe, I expected some sort of pull back today before we moved higher. But yes, I think it's becoming more and more blatant to even casual observers of the market of how manipulated it currently and how much central bank intervention in the markers, especially in the FX markets, is going on.
At this point IlliniKap, I think the crash next week has been re-scheduled. The only way I see it happening now is for at least a 50 point drop to occur before this Friday.
Meaning… it needs to start today, and continue throughout all of tomorrow. With this light volume right now, it's not looking likely to happen. It's like all the big institutions got together on a conference call and decided not to sell this week and next week.
So, the government can prop up the market for several more months, with money monopoly money from the printing press. All the charts I seen showed that they were pulling money out of the market, but the “planned crash” must have be delayed, and instead they put in Secret Stimulus Plan Two… which we won't hear about on the news of course.
Probably because the rest of the world that buys our debt (China mainly) wouldn't have approved it, as it is going to devalue the dollar even more. And since they hold billions of our dollars, they don't want to see that happen. They want a strong dollar, while the Crooked Fed's want a weak dollar. Unfortanutely, it's game that is played behind our backs, as we weren't invited to the card table.
SP 500 Support and resistance lines
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
The fundamentals are not good. but w/ greece temp behind us and the dollar correcting or softening a bit it seems we are destined to hit the 1140 range before another drop.
the cards seem played. i am getting out of long positions on Friday or at 1120 and may start getting back into some small short positions.
Today despite it all i bet we end up in the indexes albeit nothing significant.
They have to end UP today Jim, or risk falling out of the huge rising wedge. The bot's know it, and come in a start buying when it dips down and touches the trendline.
Until the big institutions are allowed to sell, all the dips will be bought up… either by retail traders or the bot's. I do believe the crash won't happen next week. Too many people know about it now… hence it won't happen.
Nobody I know knows about it. Maybe there is some hope.
Dow jones has been showing negative divergence in hour chart. But the price is refusing to come down
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Even confirmed divergences have been slow to play out. Per Chartpattern Trader the triple div is the strongest signal in technical analysis.
So what about this one will this one work in favour of the bears?
We should correct.
You're the best, San.
I just bought some very cheap (!) July puts.
Rip let the price confirm before taking big short position.
What would you consider confirmation? I really don't see us trading down, unless jobless claims are really, really bad tomorrow. Like everything else bad that it will be spun and then used to justify the rally. Most likely scenario is we based around these levels rest of the week to burn off the overbought conditions and then begin the next leg up next week after OPX.
IlliniKap A sideways correction and an up move is very much possible. Then as you said the divergence will burn off.
It was a very minor purchase, just a few bucks.
Wait for a strong confirmation.
I agree
My girl VIX is looking mighty fine. Got her push-up bra and capri pants.
Says she's going to 31.
I say, yeah, you do that.
I was kidding about VIX before, but it is breaking out from a falling wedge right now. This market is toast.
Monica, hope you're doing OK today. My andromorphing VIX was intended to give you a laugh.
Simply unreal.
Look at cobra's institutional chart. While us suckers have been trying to short the last week, smart money has been buying positioning for the this entire move up. The writing is on the wall, we're just not reading it. I wish I had closed out my few reamining puts this morning and picked up more SSO.
Yeah I lucked out after i got stopped out of TNA. Did not get out of SSO and Tyh. I added a bit of all this am thinking this would all turn green.
Its just pre4determined IMO
As long as we don't break today's highs now, I'm going look for a small pullback and close out my puts. Think I am going to wait until after OPX to add any new positions.
can you post a link to the institution chart?
Cobra's chart 0.0.2 is flashing a CPCE temporary top. That's my reason for levity.
The new HOD sobered me up a little, though.
Institution buying and selling chart from Cobra's blog
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TBjMN6go2xI/A…
Thanks! A huge slug of buying just came in.
I now think the DIA 118.16 target is where we are heading first. I also think that more people then we might think, knew about the expected crash next week… hence the plans changed.
If I'm wrong and this is just the biggest head fake in history, then it has to start down tomorrow or there's just no way to hit the bottom target by June 25th.
The only way I now see that happening is a false flag event. Bad jobs numbers won't be enough to cause the kind of selling needed to reach that low target by the end of next week.
I don't know out 118.16. That is implying a higher high then the April, and that would also negate the lower low pattern we put in from the feb low to may low. We're headed higher, but I think only to form a lower high.
Dow jones important levels to watch out for
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
anoopsan
Q”S reached your fib 50% line, Short IT! imo.
There divergences everywhere. Pretty much all the internals did not support today's move. That means we should either have some sort of sell-off (could only be a few points) into the close or tomorrow morning. If we gap down tomorrow, I'm willing to say with 100% confidence it will be bought and we will move higher from there.
What caused the .5% drop in a minute in the QQQQ's?
Today and yesterday is the most blatantly I've seen the market pumped over the last few months. They are literally not even letting it go down a couple of points before they come in to keep bidding it up.
SCCO, bearish looking flag
TZA has been making a bull flag all day.
hey!
SUN, I can't find any numbers, to justify 35-36 price…SHORT IT!
I just knew those crooks pumped money into the market these last few days. Look at this chart from Cobra's Blog…
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TBjMPiLvVbI/A…
How about a frigging 50 spx point gap down tomorrow? Can I get an Amen from you bears out there?
A-man.
Amen !!!!!!!! 🙂
60 new highs so far today.
If these turkeys play their cards right, they could pull off a Hindenburg Omen.
Feels good to see some little spots of green on my Ameritrade screen.
Bought more puts on high of day on Beepeenut!
Oh, man, BP has got to be on its way to a ten spot. I wish I'd had the presence of mind to trade it.
TZA up to my ears.
Rip – what options do you have on TZA and what are you looking for ?
Oh, I have a bunch of June 7 and 8 calls, and I will be happy to save my skin on them.
I see you have July 7s; you should make out very well. I think TZA could be $15-20 without too much trouble.
The last time TZA was at 20 – iwm was at 48 … we are at 66 right now … so you are talking about a crash scenario ?
At the 3/09 bottom, TZA was about $120. Of course, it then had an earnings record and the public was bearish.
TZA appreciates rapidly with a premium, like an option, when the outlook is negative.
With a sub-1000 SPX, I think it could go to $15-$20 pretty easily. I will sell not so much on price, but when hopefully when bearishness peaks.
Why is that … ie TZA to 15-20 ?
I was looking for a move to 7.15-7.4
You could see that tomorrow.
If the market doesn't gap up, that is.
Yes – you also looking for a crash soon Rip ?
Not a crash, but a proper bottom with capitulation. If that works out to be a crash, then so be it.
I think we could have a very large sell-off starting at any time, and the clue is disproportionate NYMO as I referred to this morning. It could also continue be deferred for a while.
hehehe Rip it is …just a matter of when not if 🙂
Good luck on it babe!
I don't know what they got planned for tomorrow, but I'm jumping out a window from a very tall building, if they rally it up again tomorrow. With all the negative news out there, and job's data tomorrow morning, we should see big gap down… not more of same B.S.
At least some selling tomorrow on the news then they may try to take it up again to kill all the june puts.
Looks like the 60 min finally went -ive on the MACD … so some downside for now …
Hi Leo…this is my first time here and I loved your video posted back in May on the “misprints” on FX Factory. Amazing research and deduction.
Just saw it and was blown away….Just wondering based on that video why in all of your current posts on this site you are expecting a short in the SPX/Y currently when you said you thought that June 25 with a target of 11816 was likely? Has something changed to alter that viewpoint? Thanks for all you do.
Ok, so I just followed some earlier parts of other threads with IlliniKap and now I understand a bit more of your thinking…sorry…noob, and all…
(sheepish grin)
To answer your question, in my video I thought we would go up to 11816 by June 25th, but last week when the market was falling, I changed that outlook to June 25th being a low, not a high.
However, with the recent hot air pumped back into the market, I'm clueless as to what is going to happen on June 25th? Maybe the high after all, or a super crash next week and a low on June 25th?
The market isn't making any kind of logical sense right now. It's rallying on absolutely horrible news! WTF? Seriously… I don't know what to expect next week, or even tomorrow. Although we should sell off some tomorrow, but with the Skynet computer running things… anything can happen.
Hmmm… close the SPY at 111.99 anyone? AKA 911…
Well they're doing an amazing ramp job to save this close.
I understand fundamentals and not really sure about shapes on graphs and that but i have learnt a lot from you guys thanks – I might be missing something really basic here but i look at all the international indices and all i can see is huge bear flags everywhere, even today the upper level of said flag is very well respected – if I am right then its down tomorrow
Look at SPY compared to late 2007 — very ominous
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/06/spy-h…
Omnious – but would murder options with theta decay …
Dow jones end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Hi Red, You were asking about bad prints/ticks. I spotted this one nearly a year ago on my TD Ameritrades iPhone app only: http://twitpic.com/8ysgl it is pretty special. Didn't really think it had any significance at the time.
LOL… if we ever go negative playing the stock market would be the last thing I would be doing.
$SPX closed at 1114 today and DOW had its high today at 10429. The January 4th low (opening week low) for $SPX was 1115 and Dow 10430. A little stealth resistance there. Other Indices are struggling with their January highs.
New York Stock Composite is a few days away from a death cross. A new bull move is starting with this formation? The leading index to the downside has already made a death cross (about a week ago) and is still well below its Feb low (it's a US index not EEM). Summation Index is reloading and building more firepower to the downside for the next move. $NYMO putting in the exact pattern during Sept 1987 “B” wave.
Yeah… I suspect some false flag event to happen over the weekend to cause the sell off. What? I don't know, but it's going to be bad… I believe.
Almost forgot the death cross, but yes, over the next two weeks 40dma is going to drop like a rock as high April days fall out.
Interesting facts on $NYMO history and the January indexes, too. Thanks for posting!
Elliot Wave seems to be accepting of possible SPX targets circa 1130 and 1150; here is the direct quote from today's short update:
“Yesterday the S&P filled its gap at 1115.05, with a seeming increase in upside momentum. NYSE volume however, remained muted at 1.15 billion shares traded, the third slowest day since the start of May. Equally important, there was no follow-through today. The Dow gained a small 4.5 points by today's close, with the S&P down just under a point. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today's Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday, with 1.16 billion shares traded. Daily volume has been well beneath its 10-day average level for the past five sessions, as shown on the chart below. Both the Dow and S&P have now retraced 44% of Minor wave 1, which remains well within a normal upward correction. A few people appear antsy with respect to the start of wave 3 down and that's understandable. The next leg lower should be exciting to not only see unfold, but to benefit from. The stock market will start down when it's ready and we have to bide our time until all the upside potential has been exhausted. This potential allows for an extension to either the area surrounding the 1130 level, or the 1143-1152 range, as shown on the above chart. With today's weak internals, I am not certain of the rally has enough left in it to push to either of this targets. But as long as the S&P remains above 1075, we will respect this possibility. We will try to identify the turn down sooner and discuss it here.”
Thanks for update Phoevos…
Red:
I am not certain that it is accurate. My POV (based on a synthesis of various opinions plus mine) is that 1040 was an important low and the market will trend higher for a while.
Speaking about tomorrow, it might be a red day (remember the Spiral dates graph which identifies the June 17th spike? – usually a low).
So, perhaps tomorrow a good day to unload shorts and repurchase them at a higher SPX level.
We all know that the 26th will be a pivot day; so far it looks like a high ….I doubt that the market can make a significant and furious low here.
Also keep in mind that Merriman said that the April 26 high – June 10 low was market by Jupiter-Saturn exchanging positions. He then said that once the down move was over (say June 10th) that there will be an abrupt counter move of almost 1,000 Dow points…so far the Dow has captured almost 600 points on the upside (from roughly 9800 – 10400).
All of this of course is highly subjective and I must agree that perhaps I am confused ….but that's as far as I can tell.
What's your view? Still expecting the Pesavento episode?
Something is brewing in the world of treasuries. They should be dropping heavily into the strength in equities.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
SP 500 end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…