Sunday, June 16, 2024

So Much For The Diet…

as the market is back to gorging itself again, (but it did lose some weight, right?)

Well it looks like the market is going to fool everyone and actually go up and form the right shoulder around the 1140-1150 area now. At least that what everyone is expecting, so maybe it will actually happen now, who know? That's another way to fool everyone... do as expected, and shock'em!

Maybe they printed up some more money and injected it into the market over the last few days? It came from somewhere, but it still doesn't look like the big boys are buying. So, eventually, the retail traders will run out of steam, and then we will have another leg down.

Not that it will do any good for us bears right now, as there seems to be no doubt that this market isn't going to sell off huge between now and Friday. Maybe a backtest to the 1080 area... if the bears are lucky. But honestly, as long as the volume stays light, I don't see it happening.

So, will next week be the sell off that we have all been looking for? I guess that depends on where we close this week out at. That 1080 area is pretty important to the bulls and bears. A close below it, and I believe we will sell off next week. A close above it, and we will likely go higher next week.

As for tomorrow. I'm clueless? We are so massively overbought right now, that it's not even funny anymore. The market should drop about 20 pounds (points) tomorrow... but again, light volume allows manipulation, and if they want to keep it up... they will.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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newbear
newbear
14 years ago

Beats me who's buying, nobody I know is buying this market here and even the “long term” investors I know sold last month.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

It's not the big institutions… that's for sure. Just typical B.S. before the big dump. Of course I'll probably miss it… as that's just my luck.

But on the bright side… I made an new banner to promote Anna. Pretty cool huh?

jesterx
jesterx
14 years ago

seems like there are many confused bulls and bears at the moment. I like that recipe as volatility rocks.

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2010/06

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jesterx

Confused, beat up, bitch slap, and hung out to dry is more like it… LOL

steveo77
13 years ago

I know some of you stop by, check out the charts and rants….at Hawaii Trading.
I did Phase 1 revamp of the blog, and just now trying to get Disqus back up and running, although their communications are about as opaque as a hidden gulf undersea oil plume.

Stop by, drop a comment.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

S&P futures this morning (6am), 1104.5 vs. 1115.23

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

Red and fellow disenfranchised bears, I do not think that this rally will last unless volume kicks in on the upside.

I've been bugged by negative divergences in NYMO and NYADV as they pertain to recent bottoms. Blogger Humble Student has also noticed the NYMO problem and made some projections:

http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2010/06/ex

Check out my comment on that thread for reference to pertinent charts on Cobra's site.

Iamtheeggman
Iamtheeggman
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Can you explain his post or your comments? Confused!!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Iamtheeggman

There's an advance/decline indicator called the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) that is presently very high and showing an overbought condition. If/when it returns to parity, prices will go down, and sharply. This should take a couple of weeks.

I think the reason NYMO is so high (out of proportion to the increase in the general indexes) is because of low-volume buying. This creates upticks but not large percentage gains.

Another clue that the market should come down soon is a large volume of index put activity (CPCI) on Monday. Index puts tend to be 'smart money' puts, i.e., correct.

Anna
13 years ago

Hey Red, how nice of you to do that banner, and my i have a big head! 🙂 thank you

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

You don't have a big head dear. You have sexy blue eyes on a head that is just the perfect size.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

aweeeeeeeeeeehhhhhh shuckles! 🙂

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Unrelenting bull pump. Highly overbought and every piece of news being terrible, and still being propped. Closing out my last shorts if we don't move down soon and going to pick up calls.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

If I were the wall street crooks, I'd sell off to 1080 on Friday to kill all the bears that are currently short in June options. I'd close it at 1080 leaving everyone guessing as to whether that move down was a “B” wave with a final “C” wave back up to 1140 area, or if it's going to continue down the following week.

TPTB know that from an Astrology point of view, next week has more planets aligning together, forming a negative pattern, then it has in an 100 years.

Next week should be the biggest crash in history, according to Astrology. But, since they know that everyone else knows it too… will they stop it? Did they secretly inject another stimulus package into the market these last few days, to prevent the disaster?

If so, then they plan on going up past the right shoulder and forming a new high around 11,800, before selling off into the later months of the years.

You have too realize that they monitor everything, and every blog on the blogsphere. They might not read each blog, or blog comments one by one, but their super computers give them the general sentiment of what the mood is on the net.

That 1080 area is the perfect place to park this market on Friday. It would be a very confusing point, as the bulls will be looking for a final “C” wave up, and the bears would think that the final wave “5” down has started. Which one would be right?

On one hand, you can say that the internet has helped the retail trader, as more information is available to be learned. And, everyone can share their knowledge on blogs and forums.

But on the other hand, you can say that it's hurt the retail trader, as now it's too easy for TPTB to use super computer to find out what every one is talking about (bullish or bearish), whereas in the past, they didn't have that capability.

So, that's my forecast for the rest of the week… park it around 1080, and trick everyone.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones support and resistance line in chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Anna
13 years ago

Little H&S on the Spy 1 min

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

You know, I've seen the market “get high” many times before, but this must be some new type of crystal methane it's been smoking, as there is absolutely NO logical reason to this high up.

But then again, the market lives in fairy land, while the rest of world lives in the real world… reality.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't get either. Everything out today should add more fuel to the double dip fire. I'm fully expecting the markets to move higher, but given the overbought technicals on every timeframe, I expected some sort of pull back today before we moved higher. But yes, I think it's becoming more and more blatant to even casual observers of the market of how manipulated it currently and how much central bank intervention in the markers, especially in the FX markets, is going on.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

At this point IlliniKap, I think the crash next week has been re-scheduled. The only way I see it happening now is for at least a 50 point drop to occur before this Friday.

Meaning… it needs to start today, and continue throughout all of tomorrow. With this light volume right now, it's not looking likely to happen. It's like all the big institutions got together on a conference call and decided not to sell this week and next week.

So, the government can prop up the market for several more months, with money monopoly money from the printing press. All the charts I seen showed that they were pulling money out of the market, but the “planned crash” must have be delayed, and instead they put in Secret Stimulus Plan Two… which we won't hear about on the news of course.

Probably because the rest of the world that buys our debt (China mainly) wouldn't have approved it, as it is going to devalue the dollar even more. And since they hold billions of our dollars, they don't want to see that happen. They want a strong dollar, while the Crooked Fed's want a weak dollar. Unfortanutely, it's game that is played behind our backs, as we weren't invited to the card table.

anoopsan
13 years ago

SP 500 Support and resistance lines
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

The fundamentals are not good. but w/ greece temp behind us and the dollar correcting or softening a bit it seems we are destined to hit the 1140 range before another drop.

the cards seem played. i am getting out of long positions on Friday or at 1120 and may start getting back into some small short positions.

Today despite it all i bet we end up in the indexes albeit nothing significant.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

They have to end UP today Jim, or risk falling out of the huge rising wedge. The bot's know it, and come in a start buying when it dips down and touches the trendline.

Until the big institutions are allowed to sell, all the dips will be bought up… either by retail traders or the bot's. I do believe the crash won't happen next week. Too many people know about it now… hence it won't happen.

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nobody I know knows about it. Maybe there is some hope.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones has been showing negative divergence in hour chart. But the price is refusing to come down
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Even confirmed divergences have been slow to play out. Per Chartpattern Trader the triple div is the strongest signal in technical analysis.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  RecnadnuS

So what about this one will this one work in favour of the bears?

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

We should correct.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

You're the best, San.

I just bought some very cheap (!) July puts.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Rip let the price confirm before taking big short position.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

What would you consider confirmation? I really don't see us trading down, unless jobless claims are really, really bad tomorrow. Like everything else bad that it will be spun and then used to justify the rally. Most likely scenario is we based around these levels rest of the week to burn off the overbought conditions and then begin the next leg up next week after OPX.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

IlliniKap A sideways correction and an up move is very much possible. Then as you said the divergence will burn off.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

It was a very minor purchase, just a few bucks.

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Wait for a strong confirmation.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  RecnadnuS

I agree

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

My girl VIX is looking mighty fine. Got her push-up bra and capri pants.

Says she's going to 31.

I say, yeah, you do that.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I was kidding about VIX before, but it is breaking out from a falling wedge right now. This market is toast.

Monica, hope you're doing OK today. My andromorphing VIX was intended to give you a laugh.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Simply unreal.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Look at cobra's institutional chart. While us suckers have been trying to short the last week, smart money has been buying positioning for the this entire move up. The writing is on the wall, we're just not reading it. I wish I had closed out my few reamining puts this morning and picked up more SSO.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

Yeah I lucked out after i got stopped out of TNA. Did not get out of SSO and Tyh. I added a bit of all this am thinking this would all turn green.

Its just pre4determined IMO

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

As long as we don't break today's highs now, I'm going look for a small pullback and close out my puts. Think I am going to wait until after OPX to add any new positions.

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

can you post a link to the institution chart?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

Cobra's chart 0.0.2 is flashing a CPCE temporary top. That's my reason for levity.

The new HOD sobered me up a little, though.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Institution buying and selling chart from Cobra's blog

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TBjMN6go2xI/A

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks! A huge slug of buying just came in.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  RecnadnuS

I now think the DIA 118.16 target is where we are heading first. I also think that more people then we might think, knew about the expected crash next week… hence the plans changed.

If I'm wrong and this is just the biggest head fake in history, then it has to start down tomorrow or there's just no way to hit the bottom target by June 25th.

The only way I now see that happening is a false flag event. Bad jobs numbers won't be enough to cause the kind of selling needed to reach that low target by the end of next week.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't know out 118.16. That is implying a higher high then the April, and that would also negate the lower low pattern we put in from the feb low to may low. We're headed higher, but I think only to form a lower high.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones important levels to watch out for
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

anoopsan
Q”S reached your fib 50% line, Short IT! imo.

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

There divergences everywhere. Pretty much all the internals did not support today's move. That means we should either have some sort of sell-off (could only be a few points) into the close or tomorrow morning. If we gap down tomorrow, I'm willing to say with 100% confidence it will be bought and we will move higher from there.

RecnadnuS
RecnadnuS
13 years ago
Reply to  IlliniKap

What caused the .5% drop in a minute in the QQQQ's?

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Today and yesterday is the most blatantly I've seen the market pumped over the last few months. They are literally not even letting it go down a couple of points before they come in to keep bidding it up.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

SCCO, bearish looking flag

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

TZA has been making a bull flag all day.

zstock7 Pro Select!
13 years ago

hey!
SUN, I can't find any numbers, to justify 35-36 price…SHORT IT!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I just knew those crooks pumped money into the market these last few days. Look at this chart from Cobra's Blog…

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TBjMPiLvVbI/A

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

How about a frigging 50 spx point gap down tomorrow? Can I get an Amen from you bears out there?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

A-man.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Amen !!!!!!!! 🙂

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago

60 new highs so far today.

If these turkeys play their cards right, they could pull off a Hindenburg Omen.

Feels good to see some little spots of green on my Ameritrade screen.

Anna
13 years ago

Bought more puts on high of day on Beepeenut!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Oh, man, BP has got to be on its way to a ten spot. I wish I'd had the presence of mind to trade it.

TZA up to my ears.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Rip – what options do you have on TZA and what are you looking for ?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Oh, I have a bunch of June 7 and 8 calls, and I will be happy to save my skin on them.

I see you have July 7s; you should make out very well. I think TZA could be $15-20 without too much trouble.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

The last time TZA was at 20 – iwm was at 48 … we are at 66 right now … so you are talking about a crash scenario ?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

At the 3/09 bottom, TZA was about $120. Of course, it then had an earnings record and the public was bearish.

TZA appreciates rapidly with a premium, like an option, when the outlook is negative.

With a sub-1000 SPX, I think it could go to $15-$20 pretty easily. I will sell not so much on price, but when hopefully when bearishness peaks.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Why is that … ie TZA to 15-20 ?

I was looking for a move to 7.15-7.4

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

You could see that tomorrow.

If the market doesn't gap up, that is.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Yes – you also looking for a crash soon Rip ?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Not a crash, but a proper bottom with capitulation. If that works out to be a crash, then so be it.

I think we could have a very large sell-off starting at any time, and the clue is disproportionate NYMO as I referred to this morning. It could also continue be deferred for a while.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

hehehe Rip it is …just a matter of when not if 🙂

Good luck on it babe!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I don't know what they got planned for tomorrow, but I'm jumping out a window from a very tall building, if they rally it up again tomorrow. With all the negative news out there, and job's data tomorrow morning, we should see big gap down… not more of same B.S.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

At least some selling tomorrow on the news then they may try to take it up again to kill all the june puts.

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Looks like the 60 min finally went -ive on the MACD … so some downside for now …

Dumbocracy
Dumbocracy
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Leo…this is my first time here and I loved your video posted back in May on the “misprints” on FX Factory. Amazing research and deduction.
Just saw it and was blown away….Just wondering based on that video why in all of your current posts on this site you are expecting a short in the SPX/Y currently when you said you thought that June 25 with a target of 11816 was likely? Has something changed to alter that viewpoint? Thanks for all you do.

Dumbocracy
Dumbocracy
13 years ago
Reply to  Dumbocracy

Ok, so I just followed some earlier parts of other threads with IlliniKap and now I understand a bit more of your thinking…sorry…noob, and all…
(sheepish grin)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Dumbocracy

To answer your question, in my video I thought we would go up to 11816 by June 25th, but last week when the market was falling, I changed that outlook to June 25th being a low, not a high.

However, with the recent hot air pumped back into the market, I'm clueless as to what is going to happen on June 25th? Maybe the high after all, or a super crash next week and a low on June 25th?

The market isn't making any kind of logical sense right now. It's rallying on absolutely horrible news! WTF? Seriously… I don't know what to expect next week, or even tomorrow. Although we should sell off some tomorrow, but with the Skynet computer running things… anything can happen.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Hmmm… close the SPY at 111.99 anyone? AKA 911…

IlliniKap
IlliniKap
13 years ago

Well they're doing an amazing ramp job to save this close.

Crashed Gordon
Crashed Gordon
13 years ago

I understand fundamentals and not really sure about shapes on graphs and that but i have learnt a lot from you guys thanks – I might be missing something really basic here but i look at all the international indices and all i can see is huge bear flags everywhere, even today the upper level of said flag is very well respected – if I am right then its down tomorrow

pezhead9000
13 years ago

Look at SPY compared to late 2007 — very ominous
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/06/spy-h

AS2009
AS2009
13 years ago
Reply to  pezhead9000

Omnious – but would murder options with theta decay …

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow jones end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

KAMIKAZE BEN
13 years ago

Hi Red, You were asking about bad prints/ticks. I spotted this one nearly a year ago on my TD Ameritrades iPhone app only: http://twitpic.com/8ysgl it is pretty special. Didn't really think it had any significance at the time.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  KAMIKAZE BEN

LOL… if we ever go negative playing the stock market would be the last thing I would be doing.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

$SPX closed at 1114 today and DOW had its high today at 10429. The January 4th low (opening week low) for $SPX was 1115 and Dow 10430. A little stealth resistance there. Other Indices are struggling with their January highs.

Geccko 23
Geccko 23
13 years ago

New York Stock Composite is a few days away from a death cross. A new bull move is starting with this formation? The leading index to the downside has already made a death cross (about a week ago) and is still well below its Feb low (it's a US index not EEM). Summation Index is reloading and building more firepower to the downside for the next move. $NYMO putting in the exact pattern during Sept 1987 “B” wave.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko 23

Yeah… I suspect some false flag event to happen over the weekend to cause the sell off. What? I don't know, but it's going to be bad… I believe.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko 23

Almost forgot the death cross, but yes, over the next two weeks 40dma is going to drop like a rock as high April days fall out.

Interesting facts on $NYMO history and the January indexes, too. Thanks for posting!

Phoevos
Phoevos
13 years ago

Elliot Wave seems to be accepting of possible SPX targets circa 1130 and 1150; here is the direct quote from today's short update:

“Yesterday the S&P filled its gap at 1115.05, with a seeming increase in upside momentum. NYSE volume however, remained muted at 1.15 billion shares traded, the third slowest day since the start of May. Equally important, there was no follow-through today. The Dow gained a small 4.5 points by today's close, with the S&P down just under a point. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today's Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday, with 1.16 billion shares traded. Daily volume has been well beneath its 10-day average level for the past five sessions, as shown on the chart below. Both the Dow and S&P have now retraced 44% of Minor wave 1, which remains well within a normal upward correction. A few people appear antsy with respect to the start of wave 3 down and that's understandable. The next leg lower should be exciting to not only see unfold, but to benefit from. The stock market will start down when it's ready and we have to bide our time until all the upside potential has been exhausted. This potential allows for an extension to either the area surrounding the 1130 level, or the 1143-1152 range, as shown on the above chart. With today's weak internals, I am not certain of the rally has enough left in it to push to either of this targets. But as long as the S&P remains above 1075, we will respect this possibility. We will try to identify the turn down sooner and discuss it here.”

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Phoevos

Thanks for update Phoevos…

Phoevos
Phoevos
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red:

I am not certain that it is accurate. My POV (based on a synthesis of various opinions plus mine) is that 1040 was an important low and the market will trend higher for a while.

Speaking about tomorrow, it might be a red day (remember the Spiral dates graph which identifies the June 17th spike? – usually a low).

So, perhaps tomorrow a good day to unload shorts and repurchase them at a higher SPX level.

We all know that the 26th will be a pivot day; so far it looks like a high ….I doubt that the market can make a significant and furious low here.

Also keep in mind that Merriman said that the April 26 high – June 10 low was market by Jupiter-Saturn exchanging positions. He then said that once the down move was over (say June 10th) that there will be an abrupt counter move of almost 1,000 Dow points…so far the Dow has captured almost 600 points on the upside (from roughly 9800 – 10400).

All of this of course is highly subjective and I must agree that perhaps I am confused ….but that's as far as I can tell.

What's your view? Still expecting the Pesavento episode?

dreadwin
13 years ago

Something is brewing in the world of treasuries. They should be dropping heavily into the strength in equities.

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

anoopsan
13 years ago
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