Monday, May 27, 2024

Weekend Update…

MONDAY Video Update...

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Bullish or Bearish?

While the jury is still in determining the market direction from here, I'm leaning bearish at this point.  However, I do see Monday as an UP day, but after that I think the overall week will be down.  For the upside, I don't have anymore short term prints except the 111.28 spy print that I posted Friday.

Since that was an intraday print, it should be hit within 1-2 days... meaning Monday, (since it failed to hit there on Friday).  That would also be right at the falling channel's upper trendline (shown on the 60 minute chart).  I don't have any other upside prints except the longer term print of DIA 118.16 (about 11,800 Dow), which is a long ways away right now.

But on the downside, I have a short term print of 107.12 spy from a week ago, and Anna caught it again on the intraday chart on Thursday, further confirming the accuracy of the print.  The level she seen was 107.35 spy, so I'm pretty sure we will see that level next week some time.

On a longer term, I have the Dow 8300 print from several weeks back.  So when will that play out?  If that weekly chart rolls over next week (which could happen if we close down around the 107 level next week), then we could hit that low within a few weeks.

I don't for sure yet, as until the weekly chart rolls over (the daily too of course, and I expect that to happen early next week on it), it's still possible for the market to go up more.  But, I'm 70-80% bearish for next week, and I do expect that 107 FP area to be hit before next Friday.

At that point, I'd need to look at the charts again to see what the weekly chart does.  Again, if it rolls over, the market is toast!  That 8300 Dow will be upon us before the end of August.  And, there's enough important data coming out next week that could easily cause the sell off to happen.

On Tuesday we have Personal Income and Personal Spending, which will move the market one way or the other.  On Thursday we have Continuing Claims and Initial Claims out, and finally Friday has the Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, and Consumer Credit... all are "market movers"!

There are plenty of reasons to blame the sell off on next week, as I really can't see all of those reports being positive and causing another move up in the market.  This leads me more and more bearish, as I just don't think the weekly chart has enough juice left for a breakout move to the upside.  Especially now that the daily has ran out of steam too.

So from a technical point of view, the weekly and daily charts are running on empty for power now.  I'd say they've used up 90% of their juice, and could roll over at any time now.  The monthly is still bearish, and only took a "pause" period last month, which still didn't do any damage to the overall trend down.

And of course from a "news point of view", next week could scare a lot of bulls from staying long.  We all know that the market is manipulated and 100% controlled (you should know that, if you are a regular reader), which means they could make all the reports look positive, by getting out their erasers and changing the data.

But, they also follow technical patterns too... especially on the larger time frame charts, as they are just too hard to manipulate.  The intraday moves don't take as much money to control, as turning around the Titanic would (meaning the monthly charts' down trend)!

Ok, so Monday I'm looking to go up to that 111.28 print by the close.  Then I'm looking for the 60 minute chart too have peaked out, and the daily to get even closed to have a bearish cross on the MACD lines.  Since Tuesday starts out the week with the first of many reports that can move the market, I'd expect that to be the start of move down toward our 107 area FP.

The market moves fast on the way down, so who knows how fast it could hit that target low?  Bad news on Tuesday could cause us to hit that level before the Thursday news, because traders will be selling in fear that the job's data will be horrible.  The old "buy the rumor, sell the fact", or in this case... "sell the rumor, MAYBE? buy the fact".

That's my crystal ball reading for next week...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Thanks Red, excellent summary as usual! You know that Gerald Celente predicted a terrorist event this summer of 2010, which may be the catalyst to trigger such a large crash in DOW? Perhaps next week we get a shocking wiki leaks video to set up retaliatory response from the middle east, or maybe a major bank goes bust or just more bad news from the gulf? I do not know, but any intelligent financial economist will tell you this is a depression, and it’s not if, but when the next crash occurs. One must remain vigilant and prepared in these times, so I thank you for your blog site. Best regards and have a great weekend!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

You're welcome my friend…

I haven't seen an new video's by Gerald Celente lately, but if you find one, be sure to post it.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, Nice video as usual.
Here's an extreme sports outlook? Weird phenomenons?
When I look at your SPY weekly, I see a potential rounded bottom, with a top at 1200. Thus the term ” extreme sports!”
on that note,
I don't have anything substantial to support this outcome.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, try this link for Gerald Celente. http://theopponent.wordpress.com/2010/05/30/ger

Best regards,

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

Hi Pzy5t0,
more Gerald Celente on radio.
http://www.youtube.com/user/GeraldCelenteChannel

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

thanks

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red, I found you a good reference point to short bank stocks.
RKH's 200 day is 80. In the current environment, Spain, Europe, weak US data, deflation in gold…I'd short RKH at 80. stop is 1.2% or 81. Simple enough stop.

zstock7
13 years ago

SKF, seems to be putting in a sustainable base at 19.5, and wants to go to 21.5, it's 50 day.
I'd be short banks, SKF at 19.5
The most upside for RKH, that I can see, is 80.95 for next week.

zstock7
13 years ago

CAH long, 30.75, still has some more downside left, before it's a buy, imo.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/c

zstock7
13 years ago

I've also posted in the recent past, I wouldn't be surprised if BAC tested 12.5.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Z
what about JPM, WFC

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Reza

Are you psychic? because I just finished looking at WFC, in depth.
If I use our dear Red's method of counting waves…

I get.. wave 4 bottoms at 25.6 – 26.2, then goes higher to 29.4. This week.
Overnight charts sort of confirm this, and GS's paid partners in crime, WSJ and CBS MW, moved WFC target price higher to an average of $34. That's 10 freaking, percents higher. It's also the 200 day regression top line.
I wouldn't say short WFC at 29.4, but I'm going to. small position.
JPM, I'll look later.

Anna
13 years ago

hi red
mutual fund first quarter monday?

http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/47-august-spx-upd

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Bears are going to get spanked today but I see a change coming on the 6th

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Why the 6th Jim?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Short term and mid term cycles top on the 6th, possibly the 7th.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, I guess 112.35 (that was hit last week) isn't a qualified “fill” of the 112.41 print, as it looks like we will easily hit it today.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Well I'm pretty sure we are going to 112.41 spy at least, so that will push the Dow up higher too. Not a breakout though…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well gang… we hit 112.42! Wow! Now what? Do we back off or continue higher?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

This looks like a trend day to me now. I think we could go up to the 1131 spx level to put in a double top. The daily chart has turned back up (not that it was ever turning down, but simply looking weak). So, this rally could last into tomorrow too.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Chart trader ahs been calling for 1131 for quite some time.

It looks like if we have a follow up day tomorrow it could hit.

Vix and R2K are not currently in support mode. But who knows??

Rosabarba
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Be careful about assuming a double top. An inverse H&S seems just as valid a pattern (more so, considering the action), and 1131 is only an intraday high that reversed after it printed. Any close above 1120 will represent a significant closing high, IMO.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rosabarba

Yeah Rosa… with that weekly chart point up it's a little scary to be a bear right now.

Rosabarba
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Why be anything, I ask? Sure looks like buy-the-dips is the better strategy right now. When the markets start to break down again, or at least show some negative momentum, then might be the time to *start* shorts. I'm not a professional nor a home-gamer with decades of experience, but I saw enough in 2009 to avoid shorting just because volume seemed thin, or I didn't like the policies or econ reports of the moment, etc.

I've seen a few traders who seem to know consistently what they're doing (I'm not yet one of them), and part of success is understanding when the thesis is wrong and needs to be discarded, bullish and bearish alike.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Rounded bottom too, on the weekly, 1200 target, no crap it looks scary.
FAS short financial etf…RSI 37, RSI 30 is a mean lookin' drop.

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Z, FAS is the long, FAZ is short. Which one are u referring to

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones futures rising wedge updated
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Wow! They are really squeezing the bears now…

shaan kapoor
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

That's all it it. They're just popping stops. Look at the volume today. Pathetic, given the amount of the move up.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yeap target of 1128 or so before we retrace

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Saw a possible fake print on IYR today:

http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder

Reza
Reza
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Hope it plays out

DCAC
DCAC
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

1127.38 is the 100 day MVG on SPX. Are you looking at this level? There is resistance at 1132, the mid june highs.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  DCAC

yep we got 1127.30 🙂 I think next move is to 1131 then retrace to around 1112-15 to go to another high 🙂

DCAC
DCAC
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Thanks! I closed my long position(FAS) at the close, thought it best to take my profits. Not sure what tomorrow will bring. If the market does go up to 1131 I will go short.
I short GLD(DZZ), GLD looked like a good short, touched the 20 day MVG ? I am long term Gold bull, though.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones Targets and support levels
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

zstock7
13 years ago

DIA potential 108 this week, and then I'm going ALL SHORT, on overnights

steveo77
13 years ago

Gap up over the channel line. Do you think that markets have to “make sense?”, think about the Tech bubble of 1999. Commercial propoerty is hosed, but that doesn't mean the stocks can't run for the sky. However, one temperment to this bullishness….this could be a bronto throw off…what i mean is a silly stop catching rally up, followed by the big down. Arch Crawford has today as a big turn day, assumed to be down, and that barberous relic of Astro astronomy has been getting mainstream media coverage. The point is? Could be that he is getting gamed just like EWI gets gamed.

The Euro pegged off a long lasting PRS 133 channel line. This is a very strong signal, however, it looks like it is consolidating, possibly for another run at the line. That would be bullish for equities assuming the correlation holds.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Nothing makes any sense right now Steve. This move up certainly looks very bullish now, as the daily and weekly charts are still pointing up.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red,
My rounded bottom theory on the SP weekly, 1200 target, is gaining traction, I hate to say.
DIA took out the June highs, see if it can take out the MAY highs , 109 or so. Then, I have to really consider the APRIL highs, that's scary for bears.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Yeah Z…

It's looking bad for the bears right now. I do believe that FP of 107.12 (or Anna's 107.35) spy will play out… but when is the question? Will it be this week on the jobs data? Maybe? Maybe not?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

After DIA reaches 108 or so, I'm looking for a 6% pullback in IWM…
I don't know what that converts to on the SP

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I can't help myself — I bought some ERY (3x short Russell 1000 Energy (RGS) Index) after hours. ERY was down 10.44% today. Oil is stupid-overbought on dollar weakness. I think there will be a slight retrace overnight, I'm only looking for about 2-3% in ERY.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

You got more guts then I do Dread… Shorting is very dangerous right now.

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Shorting has been bad the last few weeks if you ask me, especially spy and even stocks that tanked on earnings got bought back up.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Yes it has Newbear… that weekly chart it still pointing up, so I don't think we are going down to take out the 1010 bottom anytime soon.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

XOM closed above the upper Bollinger Band, which is pretty rare. I think it retraces, 0.5-1% tomorrow and closes inside the upper BB. That's enough for my ERY trade.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I could see a doji tomorrow pretty easily… but not a big down day.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

As I'm typing this, Shanghai is down 0.91%. Usually, the commodities track Shanghai very closely. Fingers crossed that my scalp is going to work.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I started posting this picture July 9th.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/S
here's the actual blog post
http://zstock7.com/?p=2975

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

LOL… it's a blood red sky! …just like the reality of the rally.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh the page for today's Video Update and outlook for Tuesday.

zstock7
13 years ago

Just puttin' this out there, I've been at this a long time.
If you get a summer rally, You usually get the x-mas rally too!
Bears might own Sept or Oct, and half of Nov.

anoopsan
13 years ago

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I seen a intraday FP yesterday at 11am (est) of 112.10 on the spy. That's probably where the market is going to bounce at.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We hit it, so maybe a small bounce before heading lower. I think we will go to gap window at 111.58 spy some time today.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

What do the 15, 30, 60 min charts say?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The 60, 30, and 15 are all pointing down now. The daily is neutral to slightly up, and the weekly is still up. If we break the gap window, then we go for gap fill at 110.50 area.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

We should be sellling off much more. Factory orders down 1.2% and home sales down 2.6%. Well, Well below estimates.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

Selling is not doing anything . we go back up in a bit.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Check out the volume charts on Cap Vision for yesterday.

Did we hit the high &c wave?? Many thought 1131-1140. but the volume yesterday was really low.

News does not seem to move the markets except for brief interludes.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We hit gap window on the spx, but not the spy.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

This action just keeps reminding me of Feb-April. Look at the candles right at 9am yesterday and Friday when we supposedly had “better data” and we had huge green candles. Today we have terrible factory and home news and nothing. We're already almost back to where we were before the data came out. Just a ridiculous disconnect that just makes it more and more obvious how manipulated this market it.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

what bullshit

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

Yeah… it really is disconnected from reality!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Bulls are firmly in control.

Amstarting to wish i had been stopped out of my initial short positions before this rally .

i made a mistake thinking there was no way it would rally to this extent before a serious down.

We will see if the cycles play out. It still looks like Aug 6th????

DCAC
DCAC
13 years ago

Leo, is there a double or triple ETF to go long the dollar?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  DCAC

I'm sure there is, but I don't know what it is? Sorry… I never trade the dollar. The UUP is only a one time etf, and that's the only one I ever follow besides the dollar of course.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

Someone will not let the ES break 1118.75. Been trying for last 15 minutes.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

That's a nice cup and handle… 🙁

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

On what time frame? The 60 minute chart looks like a cup and handle, but it all looks like it's already played out. But, there is still a bull flag in play, which could ramp up the market at the close as usual.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

1-5 minute… looks like it failed and broke downward instead. =whew=

Now just going sideways…

anoopsan
13 years ago

Broadening pattern of Dow Jones
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

It also looks like a bull flag… especially on the 60 minute chart. I expect a pop higher into the close, (or tomorrow morning), to fulfill the flag pattern. Maybe that 1131 spx that everyone is looking for?

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

A continuation of the hourly trend is very much possible

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Red, this market is like watching paint dry! So we wait just like the Hot Option Babe posting, the patient bear! Lol

Check this out, “The calm before the “Solar” storm”? I know some bloggers people were laughing at Art Crawford’s Cardinal Climax yesterday, and since economic news cannot crash this market how about this for tomorrows Headlines? WALL STREET computers catastrophically crash due to Solar Storm! Please be advised your regular CNBS pumping 12k Monkeys will return to their broadcast as soon as technical difficulties are resolved. Stay tuned for Wall Street, staring Michael Douglas. This may be our only hope for a crash! Lol
Anyways, watch the skys tonight:
http://spaceweather.com/
AURORA WATCH: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. One and possibly two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are heading toward Earth, propelled by the solar eruptions of August 1st (see below). NOAA forecasters estimate a 10% chance of major geomagnetic storms and a 45% chance of at least some geomagnetic activity when the clouds arrive on August 3rd and 4th.
COMPLEX ERUPTION ON THE SUN: On August 1st, the entire Earth-facing side of the sun erupted in a tumult of activity. There was a C3-class solar flare, a solar tsunami, multiple filaments of magnetism lifting off the stellar surface, large-scale shaking of the solar corona, radio bursts, a coronal mass ejection and more. Click on the image to view just a fraction of the action:

The movie recorded by extreme UV cameras onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows an enormous magnetic filament breaking away from the sun. Some of the breakaway material is now en route to Earth in the form of a coronal mass ejection (CME).
Seeing the sun erupt on such a global scale has galvanized the international community of solar physicists. Researchers are still sorting out the complex sequence of events and trying to understand why they all happened at once. Stay tuned for more movies and analyses in the days ahead.

Best regards, pzy5t0

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

This all leads to 2012 and what's going to happen. Will the world end? Who knows? …but this rally sure does need too! LOL.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Agreed, please forgive my poor typing mistakes for I have been on vacation having lots of fun!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

Man… that's what I need! A “get away” vacation! I envy you…

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Did you check out bonds, dropping fast? TNX

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Pzy5t0

I see… they have been dropping for quite a few days now. Hmmm…

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

YGM

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Thanks…

I agree with you, as I think we are close to a top in this rally. Lots of people have the 6th as a turn date, which could happen with bad jobs data.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, if your FP's are correct, then you will be rewarded soon enough!

Robert
13 years ago

Too much bullishness. Me thinks we will go down the rest of the day.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

I doubt that we will go down into the close. The 15 minute chart is oversold and will go back up into positive territory by the close. This will allow the 60 minute chart to fulfill the bull flag on it (and hopefully hit the 1131 level and be done with the B.S.)

Robert
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Eveyone is expecting that to happen so maybe we fade from here.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago

I got a casper of 33.43 for TZA on my TOS mobile right around 9am

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  shaan kapoor

Interesting… I don't see in now, on the TOS 5 minute chart. That would equal about the 109 spy low on Friday.

shaan kapoor
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yea, doesn't show up when I'm on my laptop, but my Iphone app for TOS shows it still on a 5 minute chart

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 support and resistance lines
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

I expect a pop higher into the close too…

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Beautiful impulsive move down this morning. 60 min MACD rolling over and historograms about to go negative. Let's see if they can jam it up from this formation. Today is 99 calendar days from April 26 high and 33 calendar days from July 1 low. (66days down to July low). Its also 69 trading days from April 26.
Euro looks topped here. Rallied back to the ledge from where it collapsed in May (ala stock market fractal from Sept 2008 to April 2010). Dow stocks have rallied hard with the euro (ie oil/materials companies plus megaconglomerates who get a heavy chunk of earnings overseas.) Once the euro reverses, it will pull all those companies back down with it.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Russell 2000 starting to break down.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Oil stocks held up the averages today. Chevron CVX and Exxon XOM seem to be the biggest gainers on the DOW. $XOI put in a doji on top of yesterday's big white candle. CVX seems really exhausted as its stock has gone vertical the last few days while XOM has to a lesser degree. Breadth was decidedly negative.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Iam curious what anyone thinks of the adx on 60 minute. I think it isn very strange.

ADX is at 18.87 Green line at 32.17 and red slightly below at 25.17

iam not an expert at that chart and Chart trader plays it up big.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It tells me that the +DI line doesn't have anymore strength behind it, while the -DI line is rising on weak strength… meaning that once the ADX line gains in strength, the -DI line is going to rocket higher.

That all should happen once the daily chart starts to roll over. I give it 1-2 more days at most, and then the daily should roll over. That doesn't mean we can't get an exhaustion push higher (to 1131 or so), before falling back down to earth.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

i am surprised at the level of weakness they seem to indicate especially as we move into close today.

i would have bet we put pressure on the 1131 level today.

i believe news out tomorrow offers more negative juice that may or may not play out (usually shrugged off).

zstock7
13 years ago

QQQQ range next couple of days is a 60 cent to 1.20 price channel, neither direction favored.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New post is up…

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