Monday update (for Tuesday)...
Nothing really has changed today, so I see no reason to make a new post. The market is just waiting on the Fed's meeting at 2:30 pm est tomorrow. After that, we should see some volatility in the market. Which way is anyone's guess at this point. I'd be afraid to go short with such light volume, and I'd be more afraid to go long because the market is in a topping process right now.
I certainly don't know how much further we have to go up, but until it shows a clearer picture, staying out of it is much safer. As you can clearly see, the daily chart is still going up, and so is the weekly. Until at least the daily starts to roll over, I just can't see any selling sticking.
Even if you miss the first wave down, getting short on the wave 2 retracement top is a better spot to be at anyway. So, be patience bears... and let the smoke clear after the Fed meeting. Sometimes the first move is a fake one. Not always of course, but a quick move down after the meeting could be bought back up by the dip buyers. It might be best to wait a little awhile before making a move.
Either way, a big move is coming soon... down or up is still unknown. I still feel that we will go down to that 107.35 FP sometime this week, but I also think we won't start a serious sell off until early September.
Back to business as usual...
Yes, it seems that some things change and others stay the same. The market is the one that stays the same, while the overall economy changes from bad to worst. No matter how bad the unemployment is... it's just ignored. There's just no worry in the market place, as it's totally disconnected from the real world. So, the rally will likely continue.
But don't worry bears, your day will come... and soon. First however, I think we will head on down to the 107.35 spy FP sometime next week. Will it be after the Fed meeting on Tuesday? Who knows? If the market rallies up into the meeting, then I'd say yes... but if it falls into the meeting, then we would expect a rally out of it.
While I still don't know if we are going up to DIA 118.16 into the Legatus pilgrimage in September, or down to the DOW 8300 print... the meeting will be a turning period. I have to say that I'm bearish next week, as I'm still looking for 107.35 spy to be hit, but after that... I'll have too re-evaluate.
The weekly chart really should put a few positive histogram bars in, before it rolls over again. Of course it doesn't have too, but my feelings are that it will... and that's mainly because of the timing of the issue. The pilgrimage is just a month away now, and that's just enough time to put in a few positive weeks.
Because the market has rolled over on the month chart now, I don't think they will have the money available to take it back up if they go down to the 8300 dow print first. Once this market finally starts to head down that low, I don't think we will see the April high again for quite some time.
I have many down side prints, and even without them... the stimulus money has run out. Even if they throw more money at the market, it's not going to have the same effect as it did in March of 2009. The most we could expect is a wave 2 back up to put in a lower high... not a new bull market.
Plus, look at this from a political point of view. Hold the market up until September, as that's only one month away from the November elections. Lot's of campaigning will be all over the news, as both sides run ad's 24/7... which means that a market that is selling off hard won't get as much air time as it normally would.
The ol' "look here at my right hand, while I'm robbing you with my left" distraction. The public won't pay too much attention as the market sells off. The media will say it's just an overdue correction. Spin, spin, spin... you know the game by now.
So that you all don't fall for the bear trap next week, remember the election is right around the corner. I think most people have us pulling back to the 1090 area, and then rallying higher. But, I believe the 1070 area will be hit... mainly because they told us it will. DUH!
Besides that, the 1090 area is too obvious. It would only allow the bulls a better spot to go long. Not many bears would go short at that level, as it's not a major break of the horizontal support line coming in there. But, if you break that support, then the bears will jump on and the bulls will sell out.
Of course once the 107.35 spy print is hit, I expect it to reverse back up and squeeze the bears out... which should also give it enough fuel to take out the 1130 area and probably the 1150 area too. Let's also not forget that we are 2 weeks away from August option expiration.
If you go down next week, get a bunch of bears short, then you know they will rally into the follow opx week... making all the "puts" expire worthless. Same game, different month. As much as we'd like to believe that the market isn't manipulated, anyone reading this blog long enough knows that I've given you plenty of proof that it "IS" 100% controlled.
While they still follow what the charts say, whenever they are at the end of an up or down move... they can always stretch it out a little bit longer then you might expect. That's how they stay rich... by tricking you out of your hard earned dollars.
Every move is planned out months and years in advance folks. That's what the Legatus Pilgrimage's and Bilderberg meetings are about. It's up to us to figure it out of course, but never forget to expect the unexpected... in this case, a hard rally back up, after a sell off to the 1070 area.
That would trick a lot of bulls and bears I do believe. I'm still 70-80% bears for next week, as I was for this past Friday too. But after the FP of 107.35 (or 107.12?) is hit, I'll probably be leaning bullish at that time. Unless some other clues come up that change my outlook, I'm expecting the 1130 area to be taken out with a run higher to take out the next major resistance at 1150 spx.
How high, I don't know? But it's going to be more about the time factor then the actual price level. I expect the top to be put in right before or during the pilgrimage (which again is... September 9th-20th). Then I'll start looking for the move down to DOW 8300 to happen.
Ok, for Monday I see us going up and possibly hitting the 1131 level ahead of the Fed meeting on Tuesday. But at some point during the week we should see a move down to the 1070 area. Probably after the meeting, but that's just guessing. Either way, a move down like that would give the bears a nice dinner to eat. Just don't drop the fish in your mouth when you look at your reflection in the water, thinking there is a bigger fish just below you.
Good luck everyone.