(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXyP3i38Fvs)
Confusion, Confusion, and More Confusion...
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXegHADGI-s)
That is the what the market is doing to most traders right now. It's no secret of course, as that's what "The Powers That Be" are trying to do... confuse both the bulls and bears, while secretly stealing their money.
So where does that leave for next week? Probably just as confused as this week was. Last week gave us a nice bear flag that fail to play out, as the bogus GM IPO was used to rally the market and rob the bears. Now I guess everyone is long again, and expecting the usual "Bullish Monday"... plus a bullish week because of the coming Thanksgiving holiday.
When was the Dubai news released last year? Answer: Thanksgiving! Interesting... huh? Certainly makes you wonder if they might pull another fast one on this Thanksgiving? Most people have completely forgotten about that, as TPTB had the entire holiday weekend to calm the market from the news, which keep the market from tanking.
Is there another Dubai just hiding in the closet, trying to get out? I don't know, but the charts look a whole lot more bearish right now then they did last year at the same time period. Another major news announcement like that right now would cause a whole lot more damage to the market I believe... and recovery would be a lot longer the one "holiday weekend".
Well, that's all just speculation... don't make any trades on it. It wasn't like it crashed after that news anyway. In fact I think it only dropped about 30 points or so. But a nice 30 point drop on SPX right now would certainly be nice to have, as long as I was positioned short of course. LOL.
Let's try to figure out what might happen next week. The daily chart shows the spx as hitting a necktie of resistance as the 10 MA (currently at 1201.92) is getting ready to crossover the 20 MA (1198.14), which is a double dose of bears holding back the bulls. We have a similar setup on the Q's for the Nasdaq, the Financial's, and the NYSE daily charts.
The 60 minute chart is overbought and losing steam on the shorter time frame MACD period's, but the longer time frame seems to be turning back up from oversold territory. This doesn't help us out at all. Basically, it's a "neutral" position right now.
The 30 minute chart is also at a neutral level, but looking like it wants to go up. The 15 minute chart similar to all the others... neutral. Not much point covering the 5 minute chart, so I won't.
As for the weekly and monthly charts... no clues there either. We could continue up a little higher, or rollover right now, with the current high holding.
The dollar seems to be backing down a little, with another move up still expected to come. The timing is unknown of course, as it could fall a few more days and just chop around forming a base to launch higher from next month. The VIX could also fall back down a little lower, and chop around a few days before moving higher again.
This sets up December for being an ugly month, which is totally opposite of what most December months are. But, remember that last October and September were historically negative months... which just the opposite happened this time around. Will it be the same for December?
I can't answer that of course, but I'll simply point out that the charts will support a sell off next month... but I'm sure they could be manipulated a little longer allowing the market to stay up until January of next year. After all, this entire rally from March of 2009 has been one big manipulation. What makes you thinks it's suddenly going to change now?
Just because the charts say we rollover and sell off in December doesn't mean it's going to happen. I'd actually be shocked if they tanked it during the Christmas season. But, that's exactly what they like to do... shock everyone!
Ok, as for Monday...
Just speculating here, but since the pattern over the last few day (on the 60 and 30 minute charts) looks like a "cup and handle", I'd say that we could gap up on Bullish Monday (to hit all the stops of the bears of course), and quickly fall back down all day and close negative. This would probably push the 60 minute chart (and the shorter time frames too) into oversold territory and allow Tuesday to rally back up. (However, if they don't gap it up Monday, I still expect it to close down on the day as the 60 minute needs to reset itself before attempting to rally higher again).
Then a continuation of that rally into Wednesday, with a little profit taking into the close as traders leave early for the holiday's. Then the gangsters can steal all the bulls money on the half day of trading Friday, with some other negative news, only to be rallied back up over the 3 day weekend... or not? (Then a nice wave 3 down would start, instead the completion of an ABC, with one more wave 5 up left that should end in January).
Yes... sometimes history does repeat itself. Of course I'm speculating here, and don't really expect everything to play out exactly like that. I could be totally wrong on the whole thing, just like I've been wrong in the past. This game is simply a big gambling casino anyway. We just play the odds, and count the cards. But it's always tougher in this game, as the gangsters know what you have in your hand...
Oh, screw it... hit me again! I'll get a BlackJack one day!