Wednesday Update... a pause day as expected, but still no blow off top?
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdlZpNb3Mow)
Red
____________________________________________________________________________________
I Wish I Knew?
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKqgFy-pd50)
While the pattern that the market is making is similar to previous patterns... which proceeded to have a quick spike higher in the morning and then a hard sell off afterwards, I'm not sure if history will repeat itself again this time or not?
This daily pattern looks very close to what happened in April of last year, with today resembling April 29th, and hopefully tomorrow will look like the 30th... and nice big red candle! Â Will it happen... I don't know? Â The 15 minute chart looks ready to turn back up and give us that early spike higher in the morning at least.
The 30 and 60 minute charts are looking might toppy right now, and should roll over by late tomorrow. Â But, they could stretch this out until Friday and trade sideways while the charts reset back to bullish mode again. Â With the Legatus Pilgrimage happening this February 3rd-5th, we might not see any sell off until next week. Â Remember, the gangsters need time to cash their checks and launder their money through the secret Vatican banks (and other oversea banks that don't report to the IRS).
This has been a very frustrating time for bears, as every sell off gets bought back up after only one or two days down it seems. Â By the time the bears get short, the sell off is already over. Â The plan is simple really... just repeated squeeze all the bears until the last bear is broke, and then crash the market! Â So, are all the bears broke yet?
Who knows? Â I do know that the bears sure are tired of all this B.S. manipulation... that's for sure!
Moving on...
I think we could spike up on the ADP numbers (faked of course) and then sell off the rest of the day. Â That's what the charts tell me, (not that they always work), but if so... then Thursday should be the larger down day with Wednesday just being the start of the sell off.
That means they could reverse back up on Friday like they did on May 3rd of last year... leaving next week setup for some really ugly selling. Â This is just speculation on my part, as I try to forecast what the gangsters would do... if I were them. Â The charts would support it too, and the timing of the Legatus Pilgrimage matches up as well.
So for tomorrow I'm looking for a pop in the morning and then selling the rest of the day, with more intense selling on Thursday. Â Possible up day on Friday, if Wednesday and Thursday are down days. Â If not, then the gangsters will just keep on pushing this piece of crap market up to wherever they please.
Hang in there bears...
Red
Hi Red…love your blog but come on now…how many times can you be wrong before you give it up? This market is not going to go down. Period.
LOL… you’re probably right! Dow 13,000 tomorrow then!
WFC getting to 34.5, gets you spx, 1322. This is where I’m trying a short on the DOW. if I get knocked out, bring the smelling salts, please.
Anything is possible… when you own the printing press!
I’ve found out, ( the hard way) There’s a limit on how high a stock can go, when the fair values are working. WFC, the max is 36.
Blow off top to dow 20k 😉
Mahendra has been calling for 38k for several years now… maybe he’s right?
It’s Bear Grit time again. http://www.filmdrunk.uproxx.com/?attachment_id=34559 A new moon in the middle of the winter. It does look like the April 26 top with tomorrow putting in a small reversal? And the opposite for the dollar. A lot of hysteria occurring on the message boards for this new high.
$xoi is going parabolic. Shot above its upper BB today. Oil always goes nuts at the end of bull moves. Only thing is oil was down nearly two dollars but $xoi was up 2%…..
EEM:$SPX showing that emerging markets are rolling over and soon this should spread to the dollar, commodities, and stocks..
$Rut:$indu peaked back in December. Official bear should come when 50day drops below 200day. It’s about to occur on the Indian stock market. Kool-aid drinkers over at the bank that I have to deal with couldn’t be even more bullish. Blah!Blahing about emerging markets,munis.
HAL getting to 47, gets the OIH top. I’d bet you on this, but I’d need a handicap of 3 to 5%.
Red,
They are getting us warmed up to the chance this will happen.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Qaida+brink+using+nuclear+bomb/4205104/story.html
You showed the clock at 6:50, little hand on the 6 and large hand on the 11. I was thinking if you add 1+1=2 and then 6….this could mean it may occur on 2/6/2011.
NOPOMO
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/simpson-nuclear-explosion-clock-episode.jpg
It means something, but I haven’t figured out what?
Are you familiar with square of 9’s Gann wheel? You can compute price and time values. Maybe the clock hands match the positions on the Gann wheel where and when the music stops and the market turns. If so, I’d say S&P top at 1319-1325 on our around 2/18/11.
tensions rise in Egypt! clashing betweening pro murbarak and anti Murbarak, Looking for a down day
Long oil/gold short market
Are you guys getting a FP on FCX of $57.10 this am? I have it on my trading platform and on intraday premarket chart. If this is true it will pull back all the way to it’s 2010 low. Yesterday close was at $114.07!!!
This would have something to do with copper… in the future
I forgot – today it split… DUH
Mornin all,
hey dee, did you get a screenshot of that FP on the FCX??
forget it,,,i just read your comment about the FCX splitting….
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_02.html
Howdy everyone… maybe flipping a coin would be a more accurate way to forecast the market? Heads they win, Tails we lose!
http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall2/folders/Jing/media/dd3a9739-b624-4fdb-bfc8-3a7383d09597
fake print
For that to happen, all of the other banks in America would have to go bankrupt leaving BAC as the only one left. That’s just an insane print! Thanks…
yup I thought so too!!! lol
or it’s 10 years out and gold is $8,000
A down day for stocks whats going on? Wheres Ben?
Ben won’t be there till 11am est for open outcry
Gold Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/gold-inverted-head-and-shoulders.html
Did you read this? Meet The Investor Who Personally Made $5 Billion Last Year From…
http://www.creditcardoutlaw.com/my-blog/2011/01/hedge-fund-managers-epic-5-billion-personal-gain-awesome.html
Gold has a beautiful long term chart…Like a stairway up to a “heaven of gains”.
Nice article. Thanks for sharing
are the bears bleeding yet ?
Volume is so light right now that buying a 100 shares of IBM would cause a 100 point rally in the Dow. Sad… truly sad! You know they will pop this higher into the close… it’s coming!
This is what you wanted right? A slightly positiveflat day.
Yes, but I wanted the pop in the morning, not at the close. It’s now forming a big bull flag, and reseting the 30 minute back to pointing up (by the close it will). Not good for bears… as the pop could hit 1313 easily, and stay there. We need to 60 to push this market down, but it’s not looking like it wants too today.
RED,
you know the gansta reptiles will do what they will do when they want to do it….if they wanted the 60 min to push the market down, they would let it happen….
Well, they were playing the “Tuesday down day” game for a while…maybe they’re playing the “Friday down day” game for the time being?
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/es-intraday-update.html
I now see 3 FP’s of 130.83 spy, which could be a late fill? Or, it could be the close today on the fulfillment of the bull flag that the market is making right now? Hard too say, but most bull flags like the one the market is making now, should easily push it up to new highs.
Only going to 130.83 seems awful weak too me (and unlikely). If this pops higher into the close or early tomorrow morning, we could see 1313 spx. Bummer…
Yes, I saw that 130.83 on the SPY. Now is there a specific rule on those fake prints or can they be an out of bid and ask range fill just about anywhere? Curious about any rules you have developed regarding them. Thanks.
OK today is my EXPLODE day…..this illusion of a market is driving me nuts today………just forget about the illusion of free markets and issue quarterly where you are going to take the markets – command and control style!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ….. ok i feel better – thanks all…
That huge gap up yesterday is too large to not get filled. Isn’t it?
I want to marry BENNYAKEE
hey i just noticed the VIX level….we are close to taping that FP of 17.14 only .15 off
And did anyone notice how TIGHT dem bollinger bands are getting on the 30 min spx chart!! ouch!! if they were pants – you wouldnt be seein me in anything that tight!….. looks to me that we are going to see a move here soon…..
red,
didnt you have a FP to the downside a couple of days ago, maybe late last week??/ was that fulfilled??
The downside FP was for 127.69 from yesterday…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-spy-127-69-on-01-31-2011.jpg
It’s looking more and more bearish now, as the 15 minute chart has worked off the oversold conditions and looking a little toppy now.
SPX Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
Red,
Markets are not reflecting reality….BDI has been heading down in a big way. I think when the markets drop…they will move down like lightning so no bears can get on. They are will be stealing from both sides.
NOPOMO
Nopomo…
I checked $BDI just minutes ago, and posted 1987 style crash just yesterday, no bears can get on…LOL…check out my post from yesterday on the other tread…
Sadly, none of that silly “economics” stuff matters any more…
Just went and looked at your post. I fully agree with you. Maximum impact is to begin buying puts in the money for Feb & out of the money for the next few months out.
If the market crashes this time…do you think they call a time out and cancel the trades as they did in May? What a sham that was..to think this is not done when something rises a few hundred %.
Those controlling the switches firmly believe all the $$s in the market belongs to them.
I doubt it, it’s bursting of the bubble…someone has to step in and buy, for market to come back…if margins are maxed, margin selling alone will propagate reaction…there may be bounces, but ultimately huge selloff is in the cards…
When do you think the selloff begins?
Like Red said, you missed the sell off on Friday.
It’s like having the cheat codes to the game. You put in a code and have unlimited amount of money to use as you please. Unfortunately for us we have to play by the rules and that means we have no cheat codes and no insider information.
The system is NOT going to change, therefore we have to change ourselves and the way we invest.
Since the Fed is printing money should you invest in the dollar going up? No, it doesn’t make logical sense and you should place your bets on it going down.
IMO Silver, Gold, Oil are investments you should consider as they have logical reasons to go up due to inflation.
JPM has the “unlimited ammo” code. Unfortunately, the only code we have access to is the “commit suicide” code.
I go with those things that defy logic…such as the dollar rising and precious metals falling. Those that use logic will be parted from their $$s.
spy p/e getting awfully low—favors feb correction. market may not make it to mar 8th correction date.
Cliff diving Thursday or Friday.
No bungee?
One of my market direction indicators say the DOW down 340 in a rather quick time frame. any day now or mid feb
JPMorgan locked my Bank Account for purchasing silver.
Sweet! We should all get together, start a bank, and PUMP the price of silver with money from the Fed.
Refresh page for new video update…
New FP on the USD (thanks for emailing it too me P.K.)
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-usd-showing-82-50-area-on-02-02-2011.png
Nice.
man that’s beautiful!, thanks P.K.—
Red, When was the last time you went long a position?
I went long last week with a call spread play. It made a little profit, but I just prefer to go short as the vix then goes in my favor. I’ve went long other stuff too, like oil for one.
But right now I’d rather just sit out the rallies and wait for the sell offs… even if they are only “one day wonders”, as they are still more profitable then going long (at least for me).
Based on the conflicting prints, it looks like they might take it down first, then have a blow-off top in the next few days before taking it down…but it’s anyone’s interpretation…
Yes, they could sell it off first. I don’t know what they have planned for tomorrow? However, a failed bull flag is very bearish and should cause the market to sell off quite a bit if that happens.
It will take many people by surprise I’m sure. So why not start the crash tomorrow… I’d be happy with that, as I’m already short.
Does buying the VXX count as going long?!
Just a quick question on the VXX ETF: I have read the blurb about it, but perhaps someone can cut through the lawyer-speak for me.
If I hold the VXX for more than a few days, do I end up with problems with it being time-sensitive? IE, if the VIX moves up and down a few points and basically ends up where it started, will my ETF reduce in value. and if so, is it much?
Thanks.
Jed
No, the price is the price… it’s only when you buy options do you experience time decay. But, any of the 2x and 3x etf’s can and do lose value over time when compared to the etf they track.
However, it’s not severe… like options are. But over weeks and months you could lose more in those then the underlining “one time” etf that it follows.
Be careful with VXX. It reverse split at 14 I think up to $50.00 and you can see it already lost a lot of value.
It has been the perfect short stock for a while. Not saying things can’t change.
The all new “Bull Dog Indicator” — America’s favorite dogs, it’s funny
It’s a Bull Market in Bulldogs, I don’t think that is Bullish from a Fundamental Viewpoint!
Check out this chart of how America’s favorite dogs change over the last decade.
Rottweilers, Dobermans, Shepherds, and Bulldogs all increasing in popularity. Mostly since 2005. Do you think that the average person has inkling of all the shenanigans going on?
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
Top of the mornin to ya RED,
i was reading through posts from last night, and i saw the FP on the USD from PK….. well the smile that hit my face when i saw that – such a FP of beauty!!
What was the FP on the dollar? I missed that one – who is PK?
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_03.html
Hi guys,
I sent Red the email about the fake print (P.K. is my real name). I told Red to check his screen because I saw it flash on my screen at work. Of course, by the time he checked it wasnt there anymore. When I got home I saw it appear again and this time had my jing software to snap a photo:
http://screencast.com/t/yleJVkUdPjpx
I think most people on other blogs completely disregard these prints but it is amazing to see how many times they come to fruition.
Well… I’m wrong again it seems. I guess they are just going to sideways until they reset the 60 minute chart back up and then rally? So from the looks of things right now we should drift lower most of the day, putting in a higher low on the histogram bars of the 60 minute chart.
Then I don’t know? If the non-farm payroll report is the usual manipulated lies, then a rally back up tomorrow could happen. If the report is bad, then we tank. Who knows at this point?
I think its comin Red… dollar is being pretty impulsive. market must follow soon.
9:45 Eastern…. here is another FP on the dollar http://screencast.com/t/EjXG9ZHW49
so if I am seeing it right it is at about 82.50 – 82.75? or am I seeing it wrong?
That lines up almost perfectly with what the forex guys are looking for in the 100% retracement of the Euro from the last 3 week move.
RED , WE BE DROPPING like a sumo wrestler fallin off the balcony…
red,
i think we just saw “truncation”…..this was to be expected…
hey does anybody have the range today for the VIX?? i am having trouble with my platform, and i think it got awfully close to that FP of 17.14…..
I have 17.16 as the low
thanks dee/red,
sofar we only have short and long term FP to the downside….i think that is somewhat comforting for a bear…
Richie,
Keep in mind we have a FP of QID of 4.96 and BAC of 300, both are upside prints. QID 4.96 is probably years away and for BAC 300, can you say Nationalization?
And I’m going off memory here, but didn’t someone post a technology print last week that was higher? It may have been hit, but at the time it was posted last week, it was a 4% climb…I’d have to go back to the posts from last week dig into it.
thanks johnny – i know the bac 300 print, but i have never seen any screenshots of that qid you mentioned……
thanks johnny – i know the bac 300 print, but i have never seen any screenshots of that qid you mentioned……
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/QID-fake-print.jpg
Not sure who it was from, but I saved it cause it scares me (as a bear).
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/QID-fake-print.jpg
Not sure who it was from, but I saved it cause it scares me (as a bear).
I forgot who sent me that? But yeah… it’s a scary print when you’re a bear. However, I don’t think we will see any of the upside FP’s until hyper-inflation kicks in.
Soooo, we crash and then hyper-inflation takes us all the way back up? 20 year window to take place?
Probably so… but first the gangsters want everything at 10 cents on the dollar so they can buy up every company in America. Then they will hyper-inflate the market so it all goes up in value.
I think someone else posted it, but there’s an upside qqqq print at ~60. Seems logical that they’d hit the lower prints first, then the “blow off” would be at the upside print.
Looks like a triple top forming on Qs daily chart
I wrote down 59.95 as the FP
We opened and had a low at 17.16 on the first candle. The FP low was actually 17.11, so I think that’s close enough… FP fulfilled.
Wondering if the DOW is going to screw around at the 12K level all day or really make a move (down)
It’ll stop farting around soon enough. There’s almost a 2 cent drop in EUR/USD. All the markets will follow when they’re good and ready.
you mean move up, right?
Waiting for a new FP of about 131.30 for the spy. LOL!
There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.
There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.
Red, in regards to False Prints.
SPY wednesday was flat as a pancake.
Was this Tuesday close FP a signal, or just a coincidence.
http://tinypic.com/r/24uvkg7/7
a loose count should be kept of how accurate FP’s work.
The human mind tends to remember working ones, and dismissing misses.
-GG
LOL… yes we do tend to forget the ones that don’t play out as expected. Since we have already hit that FP, I’m thinking that we could hit the 127.69 FP from Monday… maybe late today or tomorrow?
it would have to have massive momentum.
I have a 6month support line in the upper 128’s on that chart.
SPY Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spy-technical-analysis.html
looks like.. everyday if market goes down.. in the begining of the day… just buy at 11am… and sell later on the day at a higher price and you will make money… looks like this market cant fall… :p
The training of the bears is working…
I am trading as of today is 4/22/2101. That would mean tomorrow is FULL up day/ close at high for final squeeze to perhaps 1317. I will be FULLY short 3x on tomorrows close if we close near high. Look at a chart of April 14 – May 3rd 2010….look how if hovered around 1200 just as we hoover around 1300. Monday, Tuesday next week = solid down days with Tues gapping down and selling to 1270 area.Wed and Thur back up to/near 1300. Friday is then hard down…The following week is Gap up monday, then very heavy selling, perhaps panic selling of up to 260 SPX points DOWN ……
BTW…that should mean today closes ever so slightly green….thats the plan Stan
going against QE2 before it expires in june…panic pullback for feb, maybe, panic selling early spring is my date.
Now that I think about it……1320 – 260 = 1060…isn’t that your FP area RED ?
Yes, but where did you come up with 260?
RED….my post stated that if we follow expected path, the PANIC selling begins not next week…but the following week with a sell-off as much as 260 SPX points.
I just wondered where you came up with the 260 though? Was you just basing that off the 106 FP?
That could happen… especially if the 60, 30, 15, and 5 minute chart all get oversold by the end of the day today. That would allow a rally tomorrow. I’m not sure it’s going to work out like that, but it’s possible none the less.
what’s 4/22/2101? I don’t get that part…
He meant 04/22/2010 I believe Dee.
ok – thought I was missing something – something really wierd! LOL
The VIX FP is now officially fulfilled! We just past 17.11 and hit 17.05, so that should be it for the rally (hopefully).