Thursday, June 13, 2024

Blow Off Top Tomorrow?

Wednesday Update... a pause day as expected, but still no blow off top?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdlZpNb3Mow)

Red

____________________________________________________________________________________

I Wish I Knew?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKqgFy-pd50)

While the pattern that the market is making is similar to previous patterns... which proceeded to have a quick spike higher in the morning and then a hard sell off afterwards, I'm not sure if history will repeat itself again this time or not?

This daily pattern looks very close to what happened in April of last year, with today resembling April 29th, and hopefully tomorrow will look like the 30th... and nice big red candle!  Will it happen... I don't know?  The 15 minute chart looks ready to turn back up and give us that early spike higher in the morning at least.

The 30 and 60 minute charts are looking might toppy right now, and should roll over by late tomorrow.  But, they could stretch this out until Friday and trade sideways while the charts reset back to bullish mode again.  With the Legatus Pilgrimage happening this February 3rd-5th, we might not see any sell off until next week.  Remember, the gangsters need time to cash their checks and launder their money through the secret Vatican banks (and other oversea banks that don't report to the IRS).

This has been a very frustrating time for bears, as every sell off gets bought back up after only one or two days down it seems.  By the time the bears get short, the sell off is already over.  The plan is simple really... just repeated squeeze all the bears until the last bear is broke, and then crash the market!  So, are all the bears broke yet?

Who knows?  I do know that the bears sure are tired of all this B.S. manipulation... that's for sure!

Moving on...

I think we could spike up on the ADP numbers (faked of course) and then sell off the rest of the day.  That's what the charts tell me, (not that they always work), but if so... then Thursday should be the larger down day with Wednesday just being the start of the sell off.

That means they could reverse back up on Friday like they did on May 3rd of last year... leaving next week setup for some really ugly selling.  This is just speculation on my part, as I try to forecast what the gangsters would do... if I were them.  The charts would support it too, and the timing of the Legatus Pilgrimage matches up as well.

So for tomorrow I'm looking for a pop in the morning and then selling the rest of the day, with more intense selling on Thursday.  Possible up day on Friday, if Wednesday and Thursday are down days.  If not, then the gangsters will just keep on pushing this piece of crap market up to wherever they please.

Hang in there bears...

Red

Red
Author: Red

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Mlucas
Mlucas
13 years ago

Hi Red…love your blog but come on now…how many times can you be wrong before you give it up? This market is not going to go down. Period.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Mlucas

LOL… you’re probably right! Dow 13,000 tomorrow then!

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

WFC getting to 34.5, gets you spx, 1322. This is where I’m trying a short on the DOW. if I get knocked out, bring the smelling salts, please.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Anything is possible… when you own the printing press!

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I’ve found out, ( the hard way) There’s a limit on how high a stock can go, when the fair values are working. WFC, the max is 36.

Goldieee
13 years ago

Blow off top to dow 20k 😉

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Goldieee

Mahendra has been calling for 38k for several years now… maybe he’s right?

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

It’s Bear Grit time again. http://www.filmdrunk.uproxx.com/?attachment_id=34559 A new moon in the middle of the winter. It does look like the April 26 top with tomorrow putting in a small reversal? And the opposite for the dollar. A lot of hysteria occurring on the message boards for this new high.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

$xoi is going parabolic. Shot above its upper BB today. Oil always goes nuts at the end of bull moves. Only thing is oil was down nearly two dollars but $xoi was up 2%…..

EEM:$SPX showing that emerging markets are rolling over and soon this should spread to the dollar, commodities, and stocks..
$Rut:$indu peaked back in December. Official bear should come when 50day drops below 200day. It’s about to occur on the Indian stock market. Kool-aid drinkers over at the bank that I have to deal with couldn’t be even more bullish. Blah!Blahing about emerging markets,munis.

zstock7
13 years ago

HAL getting to 47, gets the OIH top. I’d bet you on this, but I’d need a handicap of 3 to 5%.

NOPOMO
NOPOMO
13 years ago

Red,

They are getting us warmed up to the chance this will happen.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Qaida+brink+using+nuclear+bomb/4205104/story.html

You showed the clock at 6:50, little hand on the 6 and large hand on the 11. I was thinking if you add 1+1=2 and then 6….this could mean it may occur on 2/6/2011.

NOPOMO

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  NOPOMO
Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Are you familiar with square of 9’s Gann wheel? You can compute price and time values. Maybe the clock hands match the positions on the Gann wheel where and when the music stops and the market turns. If so, I’d say S&P top at 1319-1325 on our around 2/18/11.

Anna
13 years ago

tensions rise in Egypt! clashing betweening pro murbarak and anti Murbarak, Looking for a down day
Long oil/gold short market

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

Are you guys getting a FP on FCX of $57.10 this am? I have it on my trading platform and on intraday premarket chart. If this is true it will pull back all the way to it’s 2010 low. Yesterday close was at $114.07!!!

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

This would have something to do with copper… in the future

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

I forgot – today it split… DUH

richie
richie
13 years ago

Mornin all,

hey dee, did you get a screenshot of that FP on the FCX??

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

forget it,,,i just read your comment about the FCX splitting….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Howdy everyone… maybe flipping a coin would be a more accurate way to forecast the market? Heads they win, Tails we lose!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

For that to happen, all of the other banks in America would have to go bankrupt leaving BAC as the only one left. That’s just an insane print! Thanks…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yup I thought so too!!! lol

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

or it’s 10 years out and gold is $8,000

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

A down day for stocks whats going on? Wheres Ben?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Ben won’t be there till 11am est for open outcry

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Did you read this? Meet The Investor Who Personally Made $5 Billion Last Year From…

http://www.creditcardoutlaw.com/my-blog/2011/01/hedge-fund-managers-epic-5-billion-personal-gain-awesome.html

Gold has a beautiful long term chart…Like a stairway up to a “heaven of gains”.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Nice article. Thanks for sharing

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago

are the bears bleeding yet ?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Volume is so light right now that buying a 100 shares of IBM would cause a 100 point rally in the Dow. Sad… truly sad! You know they will pop this higher into the close… it’s coming!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

This is what you wanted right? A slightly positiveflat day.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Yes, but I wanted the pop in the morning, not at the close. It’s now forming a big bull flag, and reseting the 30 minute back to pointing up (by the close it will). Not good for bears… as the pop could hit 1313 easily, and stay there. We need to 60 to push this market down, but it’s not looking like it wants too today.

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

RED,

you know the gansta reptiles will do what they will do when they want to do it….if they wanted the 60 min to push the market down, they would let it happen….

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Well, they were playing the “Tuesday down day” game for a while…maybe they’re playing the “Friday down day” game for the time being?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I now see 3 FP’s of 130.83 spy, which could be a late fill? Or, it could be the close today on the fulfillment of the bull flag that the market is making right now? Hard too say, but most bull flags like the one the market is making now, should easily push it up to new highs.

Only going to 130.83 seems awful weak too me (and unlikely). If this pops higher into the close or early tomorrow morning, we could see 1313 spx. Bummer…

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes, I saw that 130.83 on the SPY. Now is there a specific rule on those fake prints or can they be an out of bid and ask range fill just about anywhere? Curious about any rules you have developed regarding them. Thanks.

richie
richie
13 years ago

OK today is my EXPLODE day…..this illusion of a market is driving me nuts today………just forget about the illusion of free markets and issue quarterly where you are going to take the markets – command and control style!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ….. ok i feel better – thanks all…

Bennysux
Bennysux
13 years ago

That huge gap up yesterday is too large to not get filled. Isn’t it?

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago

I want to marry BENNYAKEE

richie
richie
13 years ago

hey i just noticed the VIX level….we are close to taping that FP of 17.14 only .15 off

richie
richie
13 years ago

And did anyone notice how TIGHT dem bollinger bands are getting on the 30 min spx chart!! ouch!! if they were pants – you wouldnt be seein me in anything that tight!….. looks to me that we are going to see a move here soon…..

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

didnt you have a FP to the downside a couple of days ago, maybe late last week??/ was that fulfilled??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

The downside FP was for 127.69 from yesterday…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-spy-127-69-on-01-31-2011.jpg

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It’s looking more and more bearish now, as the 15 minute chart has worked off the oversold conditions and looking a little toppy now.

NOPOMO
NOPOMO
13 years ago

Red,

Markets are not reflecting reality….BDI has been heading down in a big way. I think when the markets drop…they will move down like lightning so no bears can get on. They are will be stealing from both sides.

NOPOMO

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  NOPOMO

Nopomo…
I checked $BDI just minutes ago, and posted 1987 style crash just yesterday, no bears can get on…LOL…check out my post from yesterday on the other tread…

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Sadly, none of that silly “economics” stuff matters any more…

NOPOMO
NOPOMO
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Just went and looked at your post. I fully agree with you. Maximum impact is to begin buying puts in the money for Feb & out of the money for the next few months out.

If the market crashes this time…do you think they call a time out and cancel the trades as they did in May? What a sham that was..to think this is not done when something rises a few hundred %.

Those controlling the switches firmly believe all the $$s in the market belongs to them.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  NOPOMO

I doubt it, it’s bursting of the bubble…someone has to step in and buy, for market to come back…if margins are maxed, margin selling alone will propagate reaction…there may be bounces, but ultimately huge selloff is in the cards…

NOPOMO
NOPOMO
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

When do you think the selloff begins?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Like Red said, you missed the sell off on Friday.

It’s like having the cheat codes to the game. You put in a code and have unlimited amount of money to use as you please. Unfortunately for us we have to play by the rules and that means we have no cheat codes and no insider information.

The system is NOT going to change, therefore we have to change ourselves and the way we invest.

Since the Fed is printing money should you invest in the dollar going up? No, it doesn’t make logical sense and you should place your bets on it going down.

IMO Silver, Gold, Oil are investments you should consider as they have logical reasons to go up due to inflation.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

JPM has the “unlimited ammo” code. Unfortunately, the only code we have access to is the “commit suicide” code.

NOPOMO
NOPOMO
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I go with those things that defy logic…such as the dollar rising and precious metals falling. Those that use logic will be parted from their $$s.

zstock7
13 years ago

spy p/e getting awfully low—favors feb correction. market may not make it to mar 8th correction date.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Cliff diving Thursday or Friday.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

No bungee?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

One of my market direction indicators say the DOW down 340 in a rather quick time frame. any day now or mid feb

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

JPMorgan locked my Bank Account for purchasing silver.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Sweet! We should all get together, start a bank, and PUMP the price of silver with money from the Fed.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Refresh page for new video update…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Nice.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

man that’s beautiful!, thanks P.K.—

Goldieee
13 years ago

Red, When was the last time you went long a position?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Goldieee

I went long last week with a call spread play. It made a little profit, but I just prefer to go short as the vix then goes in my favor. I’ve went long other stuff too, like oil for one.

But right now I’d rather just sit out the rallies and wait for the sell offs… even if they are only “one day wonders”, as they are still more profitable then going long (at least for me).

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

Based on the conflicting prints, it looks like they might take it down first, then have a blow-off top in the next few days before taking it down…but it’s anyone’s interpretation…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Yes, they could sell it off first. I don’t know what they have planned for tomorrow? However, a failed bull flag is very bearish and should cause the market to sell off quite a bit if that happens.

It will take many people by surprise I’m sure. So why not start the crash tomorrow… I’d be happy with that, as I’m already short.

Jed Thrust
Jed Thrust
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Does buying the VXX count as going long?!

Just a quick question on the VXX ETF: I have read the blurb about it, but perhaps someone can cut through the lawyer-speak for me.

If I hold the VXX for more than a few days, do I end up with problems with it being time-sensitive? IE, if the VIX moves up and down a few points and basically ends up where it started, will my ETF reduce in value. and if so, is it much?

Thanks.

Jed

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Jed Thrust

No, the price is the price… it’s only when you buy options do you experience time decay. But, any of the 2x and 3x etf’s can and do lose value over time when compared to the etf they track.

However, it’s not severe… like options are. But over weeks and months you could lose more in those then the underlining “one time” etf that it follows.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Jed Thrust

Be careful with VXX. It reverse split at 14 I think up to $50.00 and you can see it already lost a lot of value.

It has been the perfect short stock for a while. Not saying things can’t change.

steveo77
13 years ago

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Check out this chart of how America’s favorite dogs change over the last decade.

Rottweilers, Dobermans, Shepherds, and Bulldogs all increasing in popularity. Mostly since 2005. Do you think that the average person has inkling of all the shenanigans going on?

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

richie
richie
13 years ago

Top of the mornin to ya RED,

i was reading through posts from last night, and i saw the FP on the USD from PK….. well the smile that hit my face when i saw that – such a FP of beauty!!

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

What was the FP on the dollar? I missed that one – who is PK?

TrendTrade
TrendTrade
13 years ago

Hi guys,

I sent Red the email about the fake print (P.K. is my real name). I told Red to check his screen because I saw it flash on my screen at work. Of course, by the time he checked it wasnt there anymore. When I got home I saw it appear again and this time had my jing software to snap a photo:

http://screencast.com/t/yleJVkUdPjpx

I think most people on other blogs completely disregard these prints but it is amazing to see how many times they come to fruition.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well… I’m wrong again it seems. I guess they are just going to sideways until they reset the 60 minute chart back up and then rally? So from the looks of things right now we should drift lower most of the day, putting in a higher low on the histogram bars of the 60 minute chart.

Then I don’t know? If the non-farm payroll report is the usual manipulated lies, then a rally back up tomorrow could happen. If the report is bad, then we tank. Who knows at this point?

TrendTrade
TrendTrade
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think its comin Red… dollar is being pretty impulsive. market must follow soon.

TrendTrade
TrendTrade
13 years ago

9:45 Eastern…. here is another FP on the dollar http://screencast.com/t/EjXG9ZHW49

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  TrendTrade

so if I am seeing it right it is at about 82.50 – 82.75? or am I seeing it wrong?

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

That lines up almost perfectly with what the forex guys are looking for in the 100% retracement of the Euro from the last 3 week move.

richie
richie
13 years ago

RED , WE BE DROPPING like a sumo wrestler fallin off the balcony…

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

i think we just saw “truncation”…..this was to be expected…

richie
richie
13 years ago

hey does anybody have the range today for the VIX?? i am having trouble with my platform, and i think it got awfully close to that FP of 17.14…..

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

I have 17.16 as the low

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

thanks dee/red,

sofar we only have short and long term FP to the downside….i think that is somewhat comforting for a bear…

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Richie,

Keep in mind we have a FP of QID of 4.96 and BAC of 300, both are upside prints. QID 4.96 is probably years away and for BAC 300, can you say Nationalization?

And I’m going off memory here, but didn’t someone post a technology print last week that was higher? It may have been hit, but at the time it was posted last week, it was a 4% climb…I’d have to go back to the posts from last week dig into it.

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Johnny T.

thanks johnny – i know the bac 300 print, but i have never seen any screenshots of that qid you mentioned……

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Johnny T.

thanks johnny – i know the bac 300 print, but i have never seen any screenshots of that qid you mentioned……

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/QID-fake-print.jpg

Not sure who it was from, but I saved it cause it scares me (as a bear).

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/QID-fake-print.jpg

Not sure who it was from, but I saved it cause it scares me (as a bear).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Johnny T.

I forgot who sent me that? But yeah… it’s a scary print when you’re a bear. However, I don’t think we will see any of the upside FP’s until hyper-inflation kicks in.

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Soooo, we crash and then hyper-inflation takes us all the way back up? 20 year window to take place?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Yorx

Probably so… but first the gangsters want everything at 10 cents on the dollar so they can buy up every company in America. Then they will hyper-inflate the market so it all goes up in value.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Johnny T.

I think someone else posted it, but there’s an upside qqqq print at ~60. Seems logical that they’d hit the lower prints first, then the “blow off” would be at the upside print.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Looks like a triple top forming on Qs daily chart
I wrote down 59.95 as the FP

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

We opened and had a low at 17.16 on the first candle. The FP low was actually 17.11, so I think that’s close enough… FP fulfilled.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

Wondering if the DOW is going to screw around at the 12K level all day or really make a move (down)

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

It’ll stop farting around soon enough. There’s almost a 2 cent drop in EUR/USD. All the markets will follow when they’re good and ready.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

you mean move up, right?

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago

Waiting for a new FP of about 131.30 for the spy. LOL!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

There is more downside to come I believe, as the 15,30 and 60 minute charts still have plenty of downside left before they get oversold. This bounce is just the 5 minute chart resetting.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, in regards to False Prints.
SPY wednesday was flat as a pancake.
Was this Tuesday close FP a signal, or just a coincidence.
http://tinypic.com/r/24uvkg7/7
a loose count should be kept of how accurate FP’s work.
The human mind tends to remember working ones, and dismissing misses.
-GG

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

LOL… yes we do tend to forget the ones that don’t play out as expected. Since we have already hit that FP, I’m thinking that we could hit the 127.69 FP from Monday… maybe late today or tomorrow?

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

it would have to have massive momentum.
I have a 6month support line in the upper 128’s on that chart.

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago

looks like.. everyday if market goes down.. in the begining of the day… just buy at 11am… and sell later on the day at a higher price and you will make money… looks like this market cant fall… :p

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago
Reply to  BullKiller

The training of the bears is working…

Gsspy
Gsspy
13 years ago

I am trading as of today is 4/22/2101. That would mean tomorrow is FULL up day/ close at high for final squeeze to perhaps 1317. I will be FULLY short 3x on tomorrows close if we close near high. Look at a chart of April 14 – May 3rd 2010….look how if hovered around 1200 just as we hoover around 1300. Monday, Tuesday next week = solid down days with Tues gapping down and selling to 1270 area.Wed and Thur back up to/near 1300. Friday is then hard down…The following week is Gap up monday, then very heavy selling, perhaps panic selling of up to 260 SPX points DOWN ……

Gsspy
Gsspy
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

BTW…that should mean today closes ever so slightly green….thats the plan Stan

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

going against QE2 before it expires in june…panic pullback for feb, maybe, panic selling early spring is my date.

Gsspy
Gsspy
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

Now that I think about it……1320 – 260 = 1060…isn’t that your FP area RED ?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

Yes, but where did you come up with 260?

GSspy
GSspy
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

RED….my post stated that if we follow expected path, the PANIC selling begins not next week…but the following week with a sell-off as much as 260 SPX points.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  GSspy

I just wondered where you came up with the 260 though? Was you just basing that off the 106 FP?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

That could happen… especially if the 60, 30, 15, and 5 minute chart all get oversold by the end of the day today. That would allow a rally tomorrow. I’m not sure it’s going to work out like that, but it’s possible none the less.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Gsspy

what’s 4/22/2101? I don’t get that part…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

He meant 04/22/2010 I believe Dee.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

ok – thought I was missing something – something really wierd! LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The VIX FP is now officially fulfilled! We just past 17.11 and hit 17.05, so that should be it for the rally (hopefully).

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