Thursday Update...
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE496DuQqRo)
Strong chance of a 50% retracement bounce tomorrow, but that leave next with high odds of a crash.
Red
While I'm not sure if the market is topped for sure, everything is pointing to a crash coming very soon!
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CnPlDEgCZg)
Whether it is days away or weeks is unknown? Â That 135.14 spy print is still out there and could be a real FP or a false one? Â I don't know what it is? Â There is lot's of technical damage done to the market right now, and the market could just as easily do a 50% retracement tomorrow, followed by a nice wave 3 down on Friday.
I was expecting a bounce today, but it sold off a little more to probably finish a 5th wave down inside a larger wave 1 down. Â So, "if" the top is really in... then we should rally up to some Fib level tomorrow to make a wave 2 up. Â Then a wave 3 down could start on Friday.
This is just one scenario, as the other one would indicate an ABC move higher to hit a double top, with a quick pierce above to hit that 135.14 print. Â Everything looks extremely bearish right now... which is why I'm worried that a bear squeeze happens and smacks the bears in the face again.
I hope I'm wrong on that call, and it's only a wave 2 up with wave 3 to 5 down still yet to follow... instead of an ABC move up. Â We have another intraday print at 132.85 spy from Tuesday, which is about at the 50% Fib level from last Fridays' high to today's low. Â If we make it up to that level, and the short term charts start to look over bought again, it would be a good spot to get short again.
However, it might also just be an A wave up, and then a small B down would come next... which would NOT take out the current low, followed by a C wave up squeezing out all the newly trapped bears. Â So be careful at that level, as it could be a trap?
What I think would be best is for a slow move up all day finally hitting that area late in the afternoon, within 2 hours of the close. Â That would indicate that the market is still too weak to go higher, as it struggled all day long just to hit a 50% Fib level.
But, if it quickly goes up to that level within the first hour of the day, then it could sell off into a B wave down, and then have a C wave up into the close. Â The key here is to see how strong the market is during the light volume/midday period. Â The first couple of hours and the last hour will usually have the strongest volume... hence the strongest buying pressure, or selling pressure.
That's how you just get a feel for the market as it could go either way? Â Once the 50% level is hit, look at the charts and check the volume, as well as other markets related to the spx (the dollar, oil, gold, etc...). Â It's not easy, that's for sure! Â While I'm bearish and think that the market is only going to hit the 50% fib level and then roll over into a wave 3 down by Friday, I won't rule out the possibility of a big rally either.
We are in dangerous waters now, and both bulls and bears are going to be tricked equally. Â Just don't bet all your chips on one color... that's all.
Red
Red, great video as always and Karl had this on his blog spot today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mys2ocTbmAo&feature=player_embedded
What was that guys named that does youtube video’s that said he was told that they were going to rally up past the top from the huge head and shoulder pattern that formed in 2010? I think he was a black guy, from the sound of his voice? He was right on that call, and I wondered if he had new video’s out? You emailed me his link sometime last year, so he might be on your list of people to watch?
What was that guys named that does youtube video’s that said he was told that they were going to rally up past the top from the huge head and shoulder pattern that formed in 2010? I think he was a black guy, from the sound of his voice? He was right on that call, and I wondered if he had new video’s out? You emailed me his link sometime last year, so he might be on your list of people to watch?
Black ops trading The Vulcan. http://www.youtube.com/user/pulsescan72#p/a/u/0/bLIRlghohgU
feb pullback, let the dia retest 122, then continue shorting.
my 15 minute charts are working perfect. (about time)..next is, DIA retest 122, and then lower lows
here’s odd…pretty soon, uso too high, will tank xle stocks.
glad site is back up—
ditto.
I don’t know what’s going to crash first…
The Market or Red’s site.
jajaja
Was my site down? I didn’t know it? When?
well, not ‘down’.
but comments locked. yeah!
Maybe I published the new post without putting a check mark in the box that allows comments? I have done that before in the past. However, I don’t think I did it this time?
I do know that his new theme doesn’t let you access the comments from clicking on the “comments” link on the home page. I don’t know why it does that, but it does? However, as soon as you click on the title to the new post you will get access to the comments. Strange?
ES Chart before opening bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-before-opening-bell_24.html
From the looks of how weak this tape is, the chances of a crash tomorrow are increasing each hour. It looks like it’s going to take all day to rally up to back test the broken trendline around 1320 or so. This is very bearish right now…
SPY Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spy-intraday-update_24.html
I’m seeing a downward sloping inverted head and shoulder pattern on the 5 minute chart. Thoughts anyone?
red,
inverted h&s?? i dunno – if i squint maybe….LOL
It’s no longer valid right now as the market went lower and hit a double bottom.
let us see where we go from here – if we continue down, or we bounce???
We are forming a triangle right now, which could break up or down? If the double bottom holds for now, then the market can go back up and test the falling trendline of resistance and back down to the horizontal support line (at the double bottom) several more times before coming to the apex of this triangle.
I see a head and shoulder sweetie
Yes, the inverted pattern failed once we hit a double bottom.
New intraday FP of 131.03 just now. That’s above the falling trendline on the triangle that the market is in right now. While that probably isn’t a target level, it could be a direction indicator?
Moment of truth about to happen… Will 1300 hold or not?
The volume has been pretty heavy today, so it might not hold?
I’m seeing 2.2 bilion on the S&P. 3.3 Billion is 3 month average. Am I getting a bad feed on that Red?
I see it too! So, they are selling hard right now.
You meant 2.2 million right?
Moment of truth about to happen… Will 1300 hold or not?
Moment of truth about to happen… Will 1300 hold or not?
IT WON’T HOLD! Yes, I could eat that later, but with all the issues that are happening not only on our land but also across the pond, I see a dramatic drop. Since June 2010 we have all been reprogrammed to think “it,
‘s all ok” and we know that is the farthest from the truth. Get back to your thoughts as they were in April 2010 and now what do think is going to happen. we are in worst shape now THAN EVER. THEIR GAME IS OVER.
Positive divergence: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/dow-jones-positive-divergence.html
San,
What do u think about gold and silver chart
Silver will retrace to 31.275 levels soon.
Gold will also find resistance near historic high’s.
Where would that put SLV?
About 30.40 in SLV initially. Tomorrows close, if near the low of the week will confirm a more bearish structure for silver in the short term.
Silver will retrace to 31.275 levels soon.
Gold will also find resistance near historic high’s.
I feel a bear squeeze coming tomorrow. Too many people will now be expecting the market to tank on Friday because of the GDP numbers that come out (which most people will think they will be horrible).
They always fudge those numbers, and then a few months later tell the truth.. So expect bloated numbers IMHO
I agree… too many people are getting bearish now. We need to fool them and squeeze them out tomorrow with a rally instead of a crash. More B.S. numbers will do the trick.
I agree… too many people are getting bearish now. We need to fool them and squeeze them out tomorrow with a rally instead of a crash. More B.S. numbers will do the trick.
They always fudge those numbers, and then a few months later tell the truth.. So expect bloated numbers IMHO
red,
with headline risk being what it is right now – libya et al… will traders be willing to go long for over the weekend???
All the market “wants” to hear is “Gaddafi flees” or “Gaddafi killed”… If “Gaddafi Slays his peasants”, that would be bad.
The news won’t matter Richie. They will only focus on something good tomorrow to give a reason for the rally. The GDP numbers are out tomorrow and they are easy to manipulate. The news will focus on the good part and not cover the bad news. Hence the market will rally and squeeze out the shorts. Remember, the news is there to distract the sheep.
Squeeze has started.
Yep… I was off by a day (as usual… LOL), but I’m fairly sure we will rally tomorrow morning, and maybe even gap open? It’s never this easy to make money as a bear.
Positive divergence: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/dow-jones-positive-divergence.html
I see a clear 5 wave pattern down right now, from the top last Friday to the current low today. I’m no elliottwave expert, but we “may” have put in a short term bottom, completing wave 1 down.
If so, we should have an ABC move up tomorrow and possibly Monday. It should be at some Fib level (50% or even 61.8%). I’ve been wrong too many times in the past thinking the market was going to crash when it went down in a similar pattern, only to see a wave 2 rally kill my shorts. I remain in cash.
I see a clear 5 wave pattern down right now, from the top last Friday to the current low today. I’m no elliottwave expert, but we “may” have put in a short term bottom, completing wave 1 down.
If so, we should have an ABC move up tomorrow and possibly Monday. It should be at some Fib level (50% or even 61.8%). I’ve been wrong too many times in the past thinking the market was going to crash when it went down in a similar pattern, only to see a wave 2 rally kill my shorts. I remain in cash.
A gap down in the morning would be a good spot to go long… if they don’t have good GDP numbers. Either way, gap up or down, I see a rally tomorrow.
red,
respectfully i am going to take the other side. i see a series of 1,2’s which would predicate yet another move to the 1270’s – 1250’s. i guess my eyesight is going… i am aware of the short term technicals – although i see what i see…. ok you can laugh and point at me when i am proven wrong – but just promise y’all wont throw jello at me!!
LOL… it’s just a guessing game in the end Richie. You could just as easy be right.
No, Billion on the S&P.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX/tab/2
I was looking a only at a 5 minute candle. That’s the volume from the entire day.
Exactly and on these down days, the volume hasn’t impressed me. I think the 1351 FP will get tagged. Maybe a double top???
they first started a rumor that Gadaffi was dead, then followed it by raising margin requirements on brent and now to be followed by WTI then metals
Bastards are just thugs in a suit … Fork them all
and Red said you were a good person.
😉
“A good person… yes”, but she does have a temper! LOL
I have a big one when it comes to those elite crushing us! lol
hahahah 😛 when it comes to those thugs I am worst than a crazed pitbulless!!
Fargin iceholes…don’t worry, they’re probably helping Gaddi set charges on the pipelines right now, to tank the market when the time is right.
i know i am thinking the same thing! 🙂
Red, shorts are were at record lows, before move started…Shorts were burned so many times, and now, all are taking any profits very quickly…thus, I don’t think you can count on any major short squeezes any longer… Also, overall economy picture is becoming clear to all…there was no recovery for anybody, but bankers bonuses (banks are still loaded with crap, so they didn’t recover)…food riots will put stop QE3…also, government is likely to shutdown next week…
What will move this market lower are margin calls…Margin calls will undo any POMO coming in…plus, POMO has no strings attached, so banks will be looking to preserve liquidity, not buy more stocks, if we start moving down
MsChemeng,
You are right about the record low shorts in the market. But I still think we will bounce tomorrow. As for next Monday and the rest of the week, it should be bloody.
Long NEM 54.6, don’t tell anyone.
Oops, I told Bernanke already.
dow 12,400 down to 12,000, that’s all the feb pullback there is–if true, that sucks. looks like its buy the dips, and sector rotation again. say it isn’t so
Yeah, I don’t think any correction will be straight down…looking for that lower high……
fp NEM ah, 59.11
BTW, the Nasdy is sitting right on 50DMA…
Damn, Gaddi really is crazy…in his radio speech, he mentioned al qaeda slipping drugs into coffee, the Kurds, the CIA and the Unabomber. WTF? It’s like listening to Madman Ben speak!
Here’s someone I’ve been following…his overconfidence can be somewhat annoying, but he’s been so “on target”, that I have to weigh his opinions very heavily. Distribution before correction:
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/250/1/February-15-2011-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html
That is dated nine days ago… does he have anything more current?
It’s a subscription service, so you’d have to buy one. I don’t have one, but I think I might just to see what he says about this recent dip.
Once the euro tops out, I think all the ducks will be in a row…
Refresh page for new video…
Hey Red, not sure if we have one more rally or not, but Gerald Celente had a great reality post today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7TfiyfdZl4&feature=player_embedded#at=521
Seasonals positive today. I think window dressing will be in play with Pomo supporting it. Numbers should be positive. Rally cap on……..
ES Chart before opening bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-before-opening-bell_25.html
Forecast: chance of showers but positive high pressure till Tuesday evening.
http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2011/02/emini-tuesday.html
😉
Market Structure setup
http://kbsctrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/market-structure-setup-2242011.html
Glad you finally found the comment section KB.
🙂
Dow Jones Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/dow-jones-intraday-update.html
New FP on UCO…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2-25-11-UCO-Future-Prediction-Print1.gif
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2-25-11-UCO-Future-Prediction-Print-CNN-Money1.gif
Thanks Trader Keller…
What am I missing here? Something has to be wrong. Either Lindsey Willimas is wrong (and not realizing he is feeding dis-info) or this is a false FP. Unless it is something specific to this fund or deflation before the inflation/gas hikes kick in?
I’m not sure what to make of it either? Your guess is as good as mine? Regardless of the print, I still think Lindsey Williams is correct.
OK, here’s the explanation for these print… UCO did a reverse split of 1:4, which explains it now. I thought that was a little odd? I knew some of the other etf’s were doing splits, but I didn’t know this one was too. Now we know… the rest of story! (Paul Harvey… LOL)
ok red,
who threw that JELLO!!!! i saw you RDL!!! i know it WAS YOU!!!
LOL>……
LOL… I was only reading the charts Richie (which ironically, seem to work very well for the bulls).
😉
Tank baby tank 🙂 LOL!
red,
what are you seeing in the charts for monday?? today has reset the short term technicals….. and headline risk for the weekend is high – are we churning come monday – up or down??? (btw i am making a tub full of jell-o just in case!)
YUM! hard to say – depends on who kills who over the weekend…
Gang, I don’t think this is the start of wave 3 down. I think this is only wave B down, with C up to follow on Monday or late into the end of today. It just isn’t high enough for a wave 2 up I believe.
Just a feeling of course, as I could be wrong on this, but I don’t think it isn’t that simple to just get short on the first bounce up and ride it down. They will shake some bulls and bears out… you all should know that by now.
So how high do you think the retrace up will be?
I don’t know Dee? It just looks like the market has went to sleep again. The volume is low (only 84 million on the spy right now), and low volume always favors the bulls.
I think that once the 15 minute dips below zero (almost there now) and recycles back up, we’ll have our C move up into the close. Depending on how high it goes will decide for me if I should go short over the weekend or wait. I want to see the volume and action in the move, as well as what level it goes too.
sleep indeed.
happens a lot on the last day or so of MONTH END. right?
this weeks jovality was window dressing time!
(slaps forehead)
Yeah, I’m not sure what to do at this point? Stay in cash or go short over the weekend? The odds seem low of another gap down on Monday like this week had, but you can’t always predict the future by looking at the past.
sit on hands, or buy something tiny for entertainment.
If I can’t make up mind, or see BOTH sides, I sit.
jess livermore -“The successful investor is not invested in the market all the time. …:
then again, I think you are a trader?
Yes, I’m a trader… there isn’t anything worth investing in! LOL
hehe.
If you were an investor, I could just say “buy the freakin dip”
technically Monday is Month end.
(warning, GG is biased. and has an incredibly small long position)
expectant positivity till Tuesday evening.
http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2011/02/emini-tuesday.html
Hey Red…what do you make of this. I have a scan on Finviz that is to locate momentum stocks moving higher. Weird results today, not sure if it constitutes as a fake print…never really caught one before. To be honest, never even knew about them until I started to come to your site.
Here is a print screen of my results. It’s odd that the contra etf’s are showing up when their down today. Other than the etf’s…just a bunch of energy related names.
http://screencast.com/t/6k44OzHAQ
I’m not sure Jeff? I know there were a bunch of reverse splits today, and I’m sure that is throwing things off. The UCO, FAZ, and many more did splits… so it’s hard too figure out what’s real and what’s normal?
Right now we are .382 Fib retrace on Dow and .50 on SPX… that should hold… I don’t hear the fat lady singing yet…
Resistance lines of SPY: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spy-resistance-lines.html
Thanks San… I think you just answered Dee’s question. By the way, we have an intraday FP of 132.61 from 11:10 am, and we also still have the 132.85 one from the 22nd.
UCO is not down only had a 4-1 reverse split
SPY.
ZZzzzz.
http://tinypic.com/r/v8lfo5/7
Ok, I’ve made my decision… I’m sitting in cash over the weekend. Looking at the past on the weekly chart, I can’t find any place that the market gaped down and didn’t retrace back up and at least fill the gap or go higher.
The odds say (from past weekly candles) that we will revisit this level or higher at some point next week before selling off lower.
red,
just a question then – where are we in terms of a count then. are we still in p2, or are we in p3 and a deep corrective ABC occurring that will take us back to the highs???
I show a 80.34 low trade on IWM in after hours , die monster die.
Market close in < 30
red,
with the small caps up over 2.2% today – which is a RISK ON decision of the market – your hunch is probably very correct. we will have to wait for another EVENT that changes the market back to selling and RISK OFF…
“Risk Off”, the new John Woo motion picture, coming to a stock market near you.
bulls on Monday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3KV4fLSNoU&feature=related
SMH is down 2% in AH.
any reason?