Monday, May 27, 2024

ES Morning Update March 3rd 2016

5c75dbca-440c-469a-af48-4f07c0c6de26The Futures are coming to the end of a smaller rising wedge from the 1890 low and are inside a bigger one from the 1800 low.  With 4 hits of the top trendline on the rising wedge it's looking very tired.

The MACD's on various time frames show no help as they are mixed but have negative divergence on them.

My thoughts are that they will do some more chop today not going down much or up much.  It's just the way the burn the option players with time decay.  But with the Employment Numbers out Friday morning at 8:30 am EST before the market open I have to think we'll see a move after that.  I'm thinking we might drift down some today and then pop up tomorrow right after the numbers are out.  Then that should be the "exhaustion" move and should be shorted.

We are either at the high already or will hit it today or tomorrow I think... and I don't see much upside left.  Maybe they tag 2000, but that's a reach.   More likely they just come close to touching it just to tease the bulls by falling short a few points.  I'm thinking 1990-1995 zone, but either way we are near the top.  The only thing holding the market up is the weekly chart I think, as the daily and all smaller time frames are overbought.

I'm looking for this whole move up from the 1800 area low to be some type of A wave, and when it tops today or Friday the B wave down should go to the 1930's or so, based on about a 38.2% Fib. Level Retracement.  This could happen fast, like between Friday and next Monday/Tuesday.  Then I think we'll see the C wave up take us to around the middle of March with a high in the 2020-2040 area.  This whole ABC wave up will then setup the market for another HUGE drop that will take out the 1800 area like a hot knife on butter.

For today though, I would be looking to add a 2nd layer of shorts, and if we get that slight pullback today and rip back up tomorrow right after the 8:30 am jobs data I'd look to add the 3rd level of shorts and hold until next week or when I see my target zone in the 1930's hit.

Author: Red

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