Tuesday, May 21, 2024

ES Morning Update March 29th 2016


The triangle I drew yesterday still seems to be in play for now with the futures hitting the bottom area of the triangle this morning.

The MACD's are showing signs of weakness as the rally back up yesterday only took them from -5 to just a hair over the zero line.

Looking at the triangle pattern we have right now on the futures and looking at the 60 minute and daily chart on the SPX cash it's hard to be bullish.  The SPX 60 minute chart yesterday ended with a nice bear flag, which the futures had too but have already broken down from it at the 4:00 am open (EST).  However, the lower rising trendline of support of that triangle is holding for now.

Today starts the last 3 days of this month and the quarter, which is a time period when big institutions usually lock in gains... which means some selling should happen.  It's their quarterly report to their stock holders and clients (the dumb sheep that put money in with them like their 401k plans, etc...) and there's some rule that requires them to have held a stock for at least 3 days for them to say on the report that that owned it.  So these big companies will gamble with the sheeps' money for 87 of 90 days and the last 3 days buy something safe and conservative (maybe bonds or treasures?) so they can legally tell the sheep that their money was safely invested.

Anyway, I'm looking for some selling over the next 3 days with a downside target of the 1980 area where there is a lot of prior support from sideways consolation zone that happened from around March 1st to March 10th.  Somewhere in that zone is where I expect this market to go to by this Friday.  The rising trendline of support looks ready to breakdown today from a technical picture but in reality nothing much is going to happen until the big boys hit the sell button.  So let's see if that happens today or not.

Author: Red

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