Monday, May 27, 2024

ES Morning Update March 31st 2016


Support around 2040 from rising trendline

As all of you know in the chatroom I had my computer crash on me Wednesday morning and wasn't able to do a morning update chart.  It's back up now as you can see (although I do still have a bad drive that caused the crash) and it I didn't miss much.  On Tuesday I thought we'd chop around inside that triangle and then breakdown to head into a low between the 1980-2000 range by this Friday.  But the market had other plans it seems as it broke to the upside after Janet Yellen spoke and squeezed out a lot of shorts when it cleared that 20240 area of resistance.

So, where does that leave us now?  As I've mentioned before we have 3 FP's that are now getting much closer to being hit.  One on the SPY of course, then another on IMW and one on Apple.  Quite honestly those FP's are the only thing I can use for a target now as we are so overbought on technical analysis side of things that it's pointless to keep saying that we "should rollover" or "a pullback is near", because we are clearly in one of those periods where the market is just too manipulated.  I'd guess that technical analysis works about 80% of the time with the other 20% being periods like now where you just "buy the dip" until it creams you.  (Not that I'm doing that as I'm just waiting to short).

When will these FP's get hit?  I'd love to see them all hit today but it doesn't seem likely, at least not for the SPY.  Maybe Apple and IWM could squeeze up that high but the one on the SPY is still a good move away.  There's the FOMC Minutes (Meeting of March 15-16, 2016) next Wednesday, April 6th at 2:00 p.m. ET that "could" be the time we hit all the FP's, or possibly one more big squeeze tomorrow (Friday) from the Nonfarm Payrolls Report at 8:30 am (EST) that might produce that move?  As for today... overbought, overbought, overbought is all I can say!  But even if we pullback I'm not going to be too excited on a bigger trend change until those FP's on the upside are hit.  Whether that happens Friday or next week I'm not taking any big positions short until then.

Author: Red

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