Thursday, June 13, 2024

ES Morning Update June 1st 2016

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New falling trendline will be resistance on any rally up today.

MACD's are still going down but could turn up today and allow a move up to that new falling trendline.

Yesterday I thought we might pullback to the green rising trendline but it broke and we fell to 2088 where there was some horizontal support.  Then we rallied back up and got back above that green rising trendline.  This morning we broke it again and have now formed a lower high from yesterdays late day rally back up.  This is setting up to be a triangle pattern, especially if we rally back up again today and hit then new falling trendline.  That might not happen... but if they keep the volume low there's a chance it still will.

The bulls have several things going for them.  One is the double bottom support, two is the longer rising trendline is nearby and three the 60 minute chart is getting "short term" oversold, which might give them a bounce.  But the 6 hour chart (also the 2 and 4 hour charts) support more downside to come as they are just rolling over and have plenty of run to go deeper before they get oversold.  On the upside there's resistance at the 2092-2094 area and on the downside the first support beyond the longer rising trendline is the 2080 horizontal level.

To me it looks like we are in a topping process and will continue to make lower highs.  I think the fear of what Janet Yellen may say on Monday, as well as the overbought larger time frame charts, will keep this market heading down... but it should continue to have these swings until we get the waterfall move down, and that will probably be next week.  My thoughts are that we have some 3 or 5 wave move down in front of Janet speaking, then an ABC up around that day (could be before or after she speaks) and finally a much bigger 5 wave move down that will start breaking lot's of important support levels below.

Red
Author: Red

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