Saturday, July 20, 2024

ES Morning Update July 21st 2017

A whole lot of nothing yesterday, at least by the close.  There was a slight pullback in the morning but it got bought up by the close.  Today is the monthly options expiration so we could see a little more movement as the market makers will want to pin the SPY where it hurts the most... which I believe is lower this time around.  Just looking at the SPY chart there's a lot of sideways chop in the 245.50 area, so that could be the best pin spot.  On the futures that would be around 2455 I think.

Looking at this futures chart you'll see I moved the rising blue trendline over from where it previously was (and was broken) to the current position where it has three touches of support.  This morning we see that it's piercing through it a little and down a few points.  It looks to me like a backtest of the low from yesterday is plan for the day.  But if yesterdays move down to that low was just some kind of small A wave, and the move up into the close was a small B wave, then today's move down should be a small C wave... which should go lower then yesterdays low.  And if so, then the target that would make sense is the 2455 area where there's prior sideways movement (support).  If that breaks then the 2445 area would be the next support zone.  But I don't think they will drop that much on a Friday, or if they do they won't close it that low.

This whole ABC down from yesterday is probably some wave 4 pullback that leaves a wave 5 up yet to come.  This wave 5 up should start Monday and might also breakdown into 5 smaller waves.  I think it's target will be the 2500 level, but I don't think it will make it there.  I think we'll get within 10-15 points of it and that's all she wrote for the bulls.  Anyway, for today I'm looking for a move down to pin the SPY where it makes the most options expire worthless.  My guess is that's it's between 245.50 and 246.50, which isnt' much to go on but a good day trader could play it.  Have a good weekend everyone and thanks again for all the great comments from everyone in the chatroom.

Author: Red

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