Thursday, June 13, 2024

ES Morning Update December 29th 2017

Looks like the bulls decided to ignore my suggestion of drifting down some to get a better launching pad for the bull flag and instead decided to play it out this morning. I also suggested yesterday that they would likely wait until next week for this move up to happen as doing it this week with light volume means a weaker move is likely due to the lack of bears to squeeze. Well let's see if they can hold this gap up open this morning and go higher as my thoughts are the same as yesterday... meaning I don't think there's many bears short this market, therefore if there's no one to squeeze the rally must continue on new bulls buying this double top.

Now I have to ask myself... how many bulls will do that? I don't think many as I'd be more inclined to think most all of the bulls are already long just waiting for that breakout to another new all time high. And since everyone seems to be calling for 2720-2730 right now I again have to think it just won't happen, as if everyone is looking at the same level SkyNet will change up the game plan so the market falls short of that level or screams up through it. I'm thinking we fall short of it and start a pullback next week, which will be bought up by the bulls of course and that should produce another move up for either a triple top, a new all time, or a failed move that makes a lower high. It's too early to know the answer to that riddle so I'll just leave that alone until we get more evidence.

First I want to see the pullback start next week, and that is yet to be seen for now. I really won't know much until later in the day toward the close as I should have clues then about next week. For one, I don't want to see much more then a slight pierce to new all time highs today on the various indexes. If it's too much I'll wait until Tuesday to see what happens there. But if this double top area holds throughout the day with say a early pullback and then back up again into the close for a lower high then I'd have a little more faith this pullback happening. That's my thoughts for today. An early small move down followed by a move back up into the close would lean me toward believing we'll see a pullback next week. If we instead push on up another 10+ points then I'll just wait until next Tuesday to look at the charts again and try to figure out if they are going to rollover or run up much higher. Have a great New Years weekend everyone.

Author: Red

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