Wednesday, June 12, 2024

ES Morning Update September 7th 2018

Looks like the futures are dropping a little more this morning. This is a very controlled descend in a nice falling channel. This doesn't look like the start of a serious drop to me but more of a pullback before another run up to (hopefully) the FP on the SPY sometime next week. It still acts and feels like some degree of a wave 4 down and this coming 5th wave up should end a very long multi-month rally up. I don't see much in the way of high odds setups for today so I'll keep this post short. We might see the bottom of this move down today or it could extend into Monday?

I'm not interested in playing it on the upside unless I can see a clean bottom, then a wave 1 up and 2 down of this 5th wave up. If I see that happen with positive divergence setup too then I might try to catch the wave 3 up inside that 5th wave up. But I doubt if it appears today and is that obvious to catch. Most likely SkyNet will trick people by doing the wave 2 down into the close of a day like today where it can trap shorts over the weekend and then gap up on Monday for the start of the wave 3 up of the 5th wave.

Or it waits until the close on Monday to do it? Ideally we drift down into the close today to end the 4th wave down, then gap up on Monday for the wave 1 up of the 5th wave, and right shortly there after (like within the first 30 minutes of the day would be perfect) we drop for the wave 2 to retest the closing level that will be set in today... but stay slightly above it. That would make for a perfect setup to go long on the wave 3 up of the 5th wave. Will it happen? I doubt it, but it's about the only setup I'm interested in going long on (small long). Anyway, have a great weekend and be on the alert for a top next week and a nasty drop to follow afterwards.

Author: Red

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