Yesterday gave us a small bounce in the morning but it never held and dropped right afterwards to an early low that was followed by a retrace back up to just down a few points. Basically it was a failed up move attempt. I thought it would hold most of the day and possibly sell off in the close but it was too weak I guess. I glad I never took a long as I'd rather wait for a higher odds setup, which right now might end up being a short instead of a long.
I'm beginning to think that the entire move down from the high last week is just some A wave and that if we can get a B wave up today into the close then there's pretty good odds that a C wave down will start as early as tomorrow. It's possible that it gets delayed to Monday so I'll have to watch closely to see how the charts align up and then just guess in the end on whether the B up is complete or not.
This is the ideal setup where I'd be interested in a short but if the market fails to get going to the upside today and continues down then we are likely still in the A wave and any B up would be delayed or completely canceled. What I mean by "canceled" is that I'm only guessing on this wave 4 down subdividing into an ABC pattern and that we are only in the A part now. It's completely possible that the wave 4 down doesn't subdivide and it just ends up being one wave down (a choppy one that could have some tiny ABC's inside it but they are hard too count so I won't). If it ends up being one wave down I'm sure we'll be able to go back after the fact and find some subwaves inside it.
But for now I'm not focused on that as I only want to catch a high odds setup. If it's just one wave down then we should continue down some more today and possibly early Friday too. At that point it should be oversold enough to end the wave 4 and let the wave 5 up start. But a strong bounce here would likely lean more toward this wave 4 down subdividing into an ABC down, which I'd like to short the top of that strong bounce wave (the B up) if possible. It's tricky here so I really can't tell you which way the market is going today. I can just give you the possible outcomes and what I'll be looking for. If you want more updates you can always stop by the free chatroom where I'll post any shorts or longs I take if a high odds setup appears. Good luck.
